error print investment for a venom lethal protetor 1 0

[robspirit74]

I'm looking to participate in a auction with comic connect to buy a venom lethal protector 1 cgc 9.6 wp black print error direct edition. It appears to be a rare book according to gpa analysis because not alot of sales data. From my experience error prints sell at a premium. My question is do error prints really have that much more value to justify paying more if a bidding war should start? I know what my max is im willing to pay but I would hate to lose out on this gem by a few hundreds of dollars. So ultimately my question is it reasonable to go over what my max price is I'm willing to pay because of the rarity of this book because who knows when another one will come along? 

https://www.comicconnect.com/item/927967

[awakeintheashes]

I would never pay more than I'm comfortable spending on a book, but everyone has their own levels of tolerance. This book has been known for a while, so it's unlikely the results of this sale would bring more into the market as a result.

[sckao]

GPAnalysis just tells you about known historical sales from the larger venues. The CGC Census tells us there are about 261 copies of the Black Cover/Printing Error. That should let you know how rare it is in relation to the over 11,000 copies of the regular #1 edition of Venom: Lethal Protector that are out there. (Some of these versions may have been cracked out and resubmitted without having their CGC Serial Numbers resubmitted.) That means there are now ghost slabs that remain in the census but don't really exist. So while the Black Error version is pretty rare, it's about a 1:42 ratio of total error copies to total regular copies. 1:77 for 9.8 copies

The WHITE COVER/Printing Error is apparently the really rare one with 2 copies slabbed so far. (And we don't know necessarily if that was a 9.6 that was resubmitted to be a 9.8.)

Update:
https://recalledcomics.com/VenomLethalProtector1Error.php

In mid October 2014, there were 137 "Black Cover/Printing Error" gradings registered by CGC in their census with an exceptional number of very high grades (including a 9.9 and two in 10.0!) and a single "White Cover/Printing Error" variant graded at 9.6.

So in seven years, an additional 124 were added/resubmitted.

If that White Copy was cracked out, pressed and regraded into a 9.8. there is ONE known copy in the last 28 years, and it's probably the rarest error variant of a now quasi-valuable comic.

Edited August 10, 2021 by sckao

[revat]

comic connect is a major auction house for comics so whatever the price paid (and the market seems to be relatively high overall) is will essentially be the market price, so you're not getting a below market deal (also is there a buyer's premium or sales tax?).  So the question is do you think the market for this book will go up on this specific book enough to satisfy whatever PERSONAL profit thresholds you have in whatever time period you're interested in?  And if you were to sell later at an auction house, would your profit be eaten (partially or completely) up by fees (and/or possibly taxes)?  What would be the impact of more of those comics being graded (you can research the amounts being graded)?.  

And aren't there other comics with more proven track records (and reliable data) where you could invest your money? Or are you assigning some personal subjective value of 'coolness' to this comic, in which case the equation becomes so subjective (and it was already pretty subjective) that no one but you could answer this question for yourself.

 

 

[Tnexus]

I'd also point out a lot of value comes from film/tv speculation and hype. Venom is now on his second movie, so the majority of that is passed. Those that want it will be the diehard collectors vs the speculators.

That all being said, I don't see them losing much value, but I also don't see it gaining much in the near future. One any book hits the 4 digit mark, you've priced out 99% of collectors.