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2022 GOLDEN AGE COMIC BOOK MARKET REPORT
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Started by Mmehdy,

328 posts in this topic

MrBedrock

MrBedrock

Posted
Posted
On 5/21/2022 at 5:42 PM, MusterMark said:
On 5/21/2022 at 2:18 PM, MrBedrock said:
On 5/19/2022 at 4:49 AM, Aman619 said:

Catelogging 

What Hollywood calls it when the actress Ms. Blanchett does number two. I highly recommend those logs for the celebrity collectible investor.

I’m going to poo-poo this idea.

Now you've done it. Folks will be piling on with all manure of crappy puns.

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Cat-Man_America

Cat-Man_America

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On 5/21/2022 at 8:56 AM, Bookery said:

I agree with most of what you say... and I think there is something to be said about a preference for smaller, easier-to-display collectibles (though the used-toy store next to me has people pouring out of there daily carrying large unwieldy toys, action figures, statues, board games, etc. -- far tougher to store than posters).  But I think ALL items that can be classified as pop-culture collectibles have certain in-common characteristics and sales patterns.  There are certainly factors that affect how long an item remains popular.  (A) are they still being manufactured and in the public eye?  Comics -- yes.  Lobby Cards and Pulps -- no.  (B) are they too scarce... or too common... to maintain popular interest?  (C) real merchandise that becomes collectible after the fact always trumps hyped manufactured collectibles (Beanie Babies, Franklin Mint plates) for long-term viability.

"Fine" art and "fine" literature remain collectible (Shakespeare, Dickens, Schomburg, Picasso, Matisse)... but primarily because they are scarce enough it only takes a small number of people to make a market, and because they have a certain elite sensibility for the wealthy, not because they remain popular staples for the masses.  As you say... sometimes items have a resurgence (records, pulps) after they once seemed to have lost interest.  Even within a pop culture medium... we see massive drop-offs in collector interest:  Little Orphan Annie, Lone Ranger, Katzenjammer Kids, Tracy... to be (temporarily) replaced with Deadpool, Harley Quinn, TMNT, Kang.

So I guess there are two things to consider.  How long does a medium remain popular, and how many shifts of interest within that medium occur over time.  I actually think if someone produced lobby card sets to current movies... and especially if that included limited edition and signature sets... they would sell quite well, especially if released through specialty stores (the limited Mondo prints sell out instantly).  I think limited edition sets even to old movies would be popular if marketed correctly (esp. if they improved on some of the poor selection of images for many original lobbies), or released sets to TV shows like Walking Dead, Game of Thrones, any super-hero series, etc.    

Apologies for the inclusion, but it had to be done. :gossip:  My only other criticism is that Lou was overlooked in Fine art and younger folks tend to avoid Shakespeare like the Dickens! :devil:

Seriously, we're in agreement on most every point, although I don't see any prospects for lobby card sets for current/future releases.  It's hard enough getting patrons back into theaters since the pandemic!  A lot of what made early film posters collectible was the drawn or painted marketing art and that had pretty much evaporated from the scene by the 1950's if not before.  Limited edition sets might have a market, like Taschen books are for a high-end limited collector market, but not as a broader market collectible. You are spot on about the flagging interest in newspaper strip characters (unless they do strip, in which case "Tijuana bibles" may be the next rising market).  Current popular characters like Deadpool, Harley Quinn, TMNT, Kang have a stronger contemporary audience, but as long as there's media interest in the "classics" they'll be revisited or reinterpreted and continue being romanced by speculators. 

The medium (comics) will remain popular as long as there can be crossover interest (film & television) or comics produced to engage the interest of contemporary audiences (millennials and beyond).  For GA collectors and speculators, I'm not too concerned about cyclical market volatility.  There will always be some fluctuation in values (an ebb and flow with trends), but if there is a bubble coinciding with recessionary stress, it's more likely to pop downstream of GA.  

In the "They're Still Out There" thread a boardie posted an awesome hoard find of high demand SA books.  This captured a lot of attention.  While impressive, I was thinking we rarely see GA caches crop up like this pedigree worthy or otherwise.  My point being that the limited numbers of graded GA ...in comparison with SA to Modern... is insurance against any economic downturn in spite of changes in speculator interest around the margins.  Note: There are no margin-calls with GA (grin).

On 5/21/2022 at 5:57 PM, MrBedrock said:

Now you've done it. Folks will be piling on with all manure of crappy puns.

Whether bull or bear market, there's always a cyclical spin and fans are usually in the direct path. image.png.022a6d1ceab816a29586e99b5f58f2ab.png

:cheers:

 

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GreatCaesarsGhost

GreatCaesarsGhost

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On 5/22/2022 at 2:25 AM, Cat-Man_America said:

Apologies for the inclusion, but it had to be done. :gossip:  My only other criticism is that Lou was overlooked in Fine art and younger folks tend to avoid Shakespeare like the Dickens! :devil:

Seriously, we're in agreement on most every point, although I don't see any prospects for lobby card sets for current/future releases.  It's hard enough getting patrons back into theaters since the pandemic!  A lot of what made early film posters collectible was the drawn or painted marketing art and that had pretty much evaporated from the scene by the 1950's if not before.  Limited edition sets might have a market, like Taschen books are for a high-end limited collector market, but not as a broader market collectible. You are spot on about the flagging interest in newspaper strip characters (unless they do strip, in which case "Tijuana bibles" may be the next rising market).  Current popular characters like Deadpool, Harley Quinn, TMNT, Kang have a stronger contemporary audience, but as long as there's media interest in the "classics" they'll be revisited or reinterpreted and continue being romanced by speculators. 

The medium (comics) will remain popular as long as there can be crossover interest (film & television) or comics produced to engage the interest of contemporary audiences (millennials and beyond).  For GA collectors and speculators, I'm not too concerned about cyclical market volatility.  There will always be some fluctuation in values (an ebb and flow with trends), but if there is a bubble coinciding with recessionary stress, it's more likely to pop downstream of GA.  

In the "They're Still Out There" thread a boardie posted an awesome hoard find of high demand SA books.  This captured a lot of attention.  While impressive, I was thinking we rarely see GA caches crop up like this pedigree worthy or otherwise.  My point being that the limited numbers of graded GA ...in comparison with SA to Modern... is insurance against any economic downturn in spite of changes in speculator interest around the margins.  Note: There are no margin-calls with GA (grin).

Whether bull or bear market, there's always a cyclical spin and fans are usually in the direct path. image.png.022a6d1ceab816a29586e99b5f58f2ab.png

:cheers:

 

Good observations, Cat. I was a tad fearful of a deep GA correction at first, but those concerns were quickly replaced with the hope I could go back to acquiring books without having to cough up an arm and a leg. Last night Goldin hammered out $1.7 Mil on their 6.5 Tec 27, so it seems the money guys haven’t jumped ship. And my fever dream of lower prices seems to be receding. . .

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Mmehdy

Mmehdy

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On 5/22/2022 at 12:25 AM, Cat-Man_America said:

Apologies for the inclusion, but it had to be done. :gossip:  My only other criticism is that Lou was overlooked in Fine art and younger folks tend to avoid Shakespeare like the Dickens! :devil:

Seriously, we're in agreement on most every point, although I don't see any prospects for lobby card sets for current/future releases.  It's hard enough getting patrons back into theaters since the pandemic!  A lot of what made early film posters collectible was the drawn or painted marketing art and that had pretty much evaporated from the scene by the 1950's if not before.  Limited edition sets might have a market, like Taschen books are for a high-end limited collector market, but not as a broader market collectible. You are spot on about the flagging interest in newspaper strip characters (unless they do strip, in which case "Tijuana bibles" may be the next rising market).  Current popular characters like Deadpool, Harley Quinn, TMNT, Kang have a stronger contemporary audience, but as long as there's media interest in the "classics" they'll be revisited or reinterpreted and continue being romanced by speculators. 

The medium (comics) will remain popular as long as there can be crossover interest (film & television) or comics produced to engage the interest of contemporary audiences (millennials and beyond).  For GA collectors and speculators, I'm not too concerned about cyclical market volatility.  There will always be some fluctuation in values (an ebb and flow with trends), but if there is a bubble coinciding with recessionary stress, it's more likely to pop downstream of GA.  

In the "They're Still Out There" thread a boardie posted an awesome hoard find of high demand SA books.  This captured a lot of attention.  While impressive, I was thinking we rarely see GA caches crop up like this pedigree worthy or otherwise.  My point being that the limited numbers of graded GA ...in comparison with SA to Modern... is insurance against any economic downturn in spite of changes in speculator interest around the margins.  Note: There are no margin-calls with GA (grin).

Whether bull or bear market, there's always a cyclical spin and fans are usually in the direct path. image.png.022a6d1ceab816a29586e99b5f58f2ab.png

:cheers:

 

If comic books or comic art or graphic novels can survive the elimination of print media, I predict GA/SA  collectability for a very long time. If comic books cease being printed they the existing ones will attain greater value and status as long as the medium in the center attention of the current generation.. I agree with you Cat that the Bubble will pop on the newer collectable variant editions of comic books, the GA market is rock solid with a foundation base of a strong long term collectors, many 20/30/40 year plus who probably do not "have to sell" under any conditions upcoming. While there are a lot of SA collectors out there, some with exceptional ability to hold during choppy times, that market would be subject to a greater fluctuations  to keep a sustained price and value  level.

 The X factor here Cat is how much our GA/SA comic book market is hedge fund/cyptro fundings/stock market bubble runoff money is in play in our SA/GA market, because when times get tough, margin calls are a coming, investor are pressuring for a safer haven, will they dump and dump big time. It is clear that possibly the most unstable or unsustainable market might be right here in our own GA world. I am taking about the Mega-Keys and their incredible price run up, especially books exceeding $500K and above. That is where the dumping could first occur, not Promise GA books or MH books, the keys. If the Keys come tumbling down will it take the next level of say 100K books and above with it, or even effect it at the 50K level... One thing I can predict, Cat and that is we are gonna find out  from now to the next 2 and even three years. Stagflation will kill any market, real estate, stocks, bonds...and that will trickle down to Coins, Comics, Video games, etc at some point. So there is gonna be an adjustment  or earthquake as some point whether it be in GA /SA Keys  or some Bronze age special signed edition. But I agree with you 100% that the GA comic book market has the strongest foundation to withstand any earthquakes.

I believe if you own a CGC  graded unrestored good page quality/staple condition/deep color(no fading) GA comic book you will withstand complete destruction of value no matter how bad it gets.

The only advice I would give is that if you have some GA/SA CGC graded or ungraded books with some type of questionable  defect such as rusted staples, tape, fading that you consider getting them together and selling them all and then buy higher quality material which might be less book wise, but will have a much stronger base to withstand the economic storm.

I suppose a second GA comic book market "buy" strategy would be similar to a friend of mine, who sold his entire stock portfolio on Friday of last week. He is totally in cash, and waiting for this stock market correction to occur so that he can buy in a one of the lowest points and ride the wave all the way up. So, second way would be to sell as much as you can now and bank the money and wait...buy at one of the lowest points of the market with the cash you received from the sale of some of the weaker GA SA books in your collection . Keep the best or the non-replaceable, but if you can get 1.5 M for a 8.5 FF1, and there are a number of them out there....might be worth it to park some money in reserve and see how things play out.

Cat, for those who do not know yet...we are in a bear market right now and the thing that is most troubling is how unpredictable and uncontrollable this economic spin really is. The Federal Reserve Bank does  NOT control the world and can do some things to change our out of control inflation rate which is in the long run an economy killer, as Cramer(CNBC) put it so well last week on his highly entertaining show "Mad Money" that the Fed has no control over the Russia war, The China Shutdown, the European energy crisis, etc etc. So this is a world problem and some its issues are beyond our scope and control. So given that, any GA speculator type buy I would avoid at all costs. For example paying a 5x market price for the current highest graded copy, which is subject to change upon a higher submission. One thing is that as a possible result of this downturn, some major collections which are ungraded might get shaken out and another reason to keep a war chest going.

I agree the GA and then SA comic book is light years ahead of the pulp, BLB, and lobby cards areas. The wild card here is original art...one of kind and has the possibility of going in any direction if 2 collectors really want. I cannot predict where is going as I don't have a clear vision....Cat or anyone opinion on that? What do thing about getting a "cash" stash ready?

 

Edited by Mmehdy
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Bookery

Bookery

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On 5/22/2022 at 3:25 PM, Mmehdy said:

I agree the GA and then SA comic book is light years ahead of the pulp, BLB, and lobby cards areas.

Well, yes and no.  The pulp market's ability to continually expand is frustrated by the scarcity of the material.  But in the short term, I believe you will find that many pulps have actually surpassed comics in terms of multiples realized in just the past two years.

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Aman619

Aman619

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On 5/22/2022 at 5:05 PM, szav said:

This probably depends on how one is playing the tax games on these.  For those who bought in at the bottom decades ago, if they're actually paying the gains/collectibles tax, they're going to need a really big crash, ~30% or more to then buy them back and not have suffered a loss vs having just passed these to their heirs tax free (assuming they're under the estate tax max),  So much nuance here, depending upon one's individual situation. 

Cashing out and buying back in (if there is a large crash) might work for some people, but it seems like a pretty risky proposition for most I'd say ...again assuming there's not some legit way to work around the tax issue.

 

Exactly.  Markets are already down 20% overall and much more for most stocks.  Too late to go to cash.  And timing when to buy in again?  How about now?  Not selling is buying in again.  Chances are your friend will buy in after a few big up days, when it looks like the bloodletting is over.  … but will have then missed a large % of the gains coming back to 36000 again. 

Edited by Aman619
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lou_fine

lou_fine

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On 5/22/2022 at 12:25 PM, Mmehdy said:

a friend of mine, who sold his entire stock portfolio on Friday of last week. He is totally in cash, and waiting for this stock market correction to occur so that he can buy in a one of the lowest points and ride the wave all the way up. So, second way would be to sell as much as you can now and bank the money and wait...

 

On 5/22/2022 at 2:05 PM, szav said:

Cashing out and buying back in (if there is a large crash) might work for some people, but it seems like a pretty risky proposition for most I'd say

 

On 5/22/2022 at 6:49 PM, Aman619 said:

Exactly.  Markets are already down 20% overall and much more for most stocks.  Too late to go to cash.  And timing when to buy in again?  How about now?  

Yes, that's clearly a very "interesting" way to try to time the market.........wait 6 months into a market downturn and then decide to go all into cash.  hm

I would tend to agree with @Aman619 here and say that it's clearly too late as it seems the market is fishing around for a bottom right now and most probably have only about another 10% to go at most, if that.  Now, if you friend waited until 6 months into a downturn when most of the stocks already got bitten by the bear, any bets that your friend will end up waiting a few months intio a market upturn and getting run over by the bulls before seeing the signal to get back into the market.  (shrug)

Yep, waiting until even the big boys like the Fang stocks to take a hit before selling out might not be perfect timing here, especially when Nerflix has dropped by 75% from its recent highs, Facebook by 50%, Amazon by over 40%, and even the big winners like Apple and Google by 25%.  Definitely too late to cash out now and best just to hold on to these big money generators for now, as they will eventually start to go back up.  The only thing that I would look at selling right now would be the oil and gas stocks as it's never a good idea to overstay your welcome in this particular sector, especially if you had picked some of them up back in October and November just before they started their big runup. (thumbsu

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GermanFan

GermanFan

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In order to bring some sanity in the situation the FED and the ECB have to place a Paul Volcker 1981 rate hike, significant higher than the inflation (was it 17% then?). But in this case the western economies would get a cardiac arrest. So the can gets kicked down the road a little further...

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