2022 GOLDEN AGE COMIC BOOK MARKET REPORT 8 8

[Mmehdy]

BOTTOM LINE: Strong demand and price appreciation thru June 2022...with reduced price appreciation and lower demand  slowdown for the remainder of the year thru December 2022 

 

 2021 will go down in the record books as a year when the million dollar price level or the speculator level hit all time high in the GA comic book market as well as the SA market.  This endless demand for Mega Keys GA books spilled over to the lower graded GA top 10 books which cracked the 7 digit price level . This demand and incredible and unsustainable price increases has a danger of hitting a wall and then  going on a fall. The number of comic book investors or widget buyers entering the 2021 market created a concern for intelligent long term real comic book collectors and investor /collectors as to what happens when the speculators pull out or pull back to the prices paid in 2021. Price recovery was the major concern should a necessity require a sale of the GA comic book purchased in 2021 and sold at the end of 2022 or  in 2023. In conversation with another 50 year plus comic book collector he was alarmed that over the last 50 years comic book values has gone up steady and slowly..thus a solid foundation underneath should prices give way to a demand reduction. He stated when "Overstreet" controlled the market, it kind of put a ceiling on rampant investor price run up where the bottom could fall out. He thought " Overstreet" and the price guide which were deliberately price low on especially the top 5 books a brilliant strategy, in which if price did correct it would go down to the actual price guide price and thus on paper show NO loss of value relative to Overstreet's current market prices. That has over the years changed with the GPA and auction archives.

 We agreed on one thing 100%, that with value of money and holding  in a inflationary  time  you will lose value.The government says the rate is 7% per year, and we all know it is really higher, but if had $100,000 in Jan 2021, today in Jan 2022 it is only worth $93,000 so just by going to sleep at night you lose $584 per month. This increases demand to place  that money in something that will hold and possibly increase over this inflationary period. What helped create this price bubble was the government spending or forgiving, and  giving away trillions of dollars, buying up bonds to keep their price down to inflate the real estate market with super cheap money to create demand on a already under built housing market and creating a stock buying frenzy in which bond investors are running to the market because of low treasury and bond yields. Hence we have 2021 and investors have come into this market, and other collectable markets such as cards and coins and have throw a bunch of money into it. One problem: we have to live with it...after they have come and gone.

 So the government has do something to turn the Titanic money flow around and it moves slowly. First they are tapering off the bond buying and should be out of the market by mid year, second they have announced 3 interest rate hikes in 2022 and there could be more. When Bonds prices become more attractive it will like the tide on a beach suck back the money that went out to a normal heathy balance between equities and bonds.

 So, myself and the 50 years plus collector agree that the key to 2022 is WHO YOU ARE as a collector, investor or both. If you are a true comic book collector who is here for the long run...most likely you will be the most unaffected by any short term 5 year GA comic book market price reality and gravity effect which is gonna naturally occur.

 I fully expect to see continued record prices for GA across the board, not just mega keys but pedigree and semi-keys and exceptional high graded unrestored GA with excellent page quality and staple explode first quarter 2022 and spilling over to second quarter 2022. Then slowly things will  begin to  reflect true price reality. As money becomes more expensive to borrow or being given away less and  there will be a natural price /demand  pullback in a lot of markets as the speculators exit. So maybe things in 3Q 2022 go up 10% instead of 30% but by the end of the year the GA comic book market should get back to sanity and provide a reasonable and hopefully sustainable grown in the future.

Your SELL strategy should be to do it sooner rather than later this year, and remember when you consign an item it take a couple of months to get it on board and into a future auction. Sure its possible prices will increase all year and slower towards the end, but it is wise to sell during a up market and take the sure thing rather than waiting and hoping you can time the actual market peak price and demand curve.

Your BUY strategy should always follow the golden rule....buy what you can AFFORD with the ability to hold on mid or long term should market conditions change unfavorably and that would be perfect. But reality is just not perfect....so I would be picky...on what I would be given the current market conditions. I would not compromise on staple rust, questionable paper page quality, and GA cover quality with a eye towards cover fading..no matter what the price. CGC graded would be a must for any type of serious purchase, why take the change when you do not have too....If the price is too good on Ebay, chances are there is a reason.

2022 is going to be a incredible year for all GA and SA collectors...just pay attention to where the economic winds are blowing and make safe and sane choices to make you GA collection better in 2022. Your thoughts will be appreciated......

 

 Happy new year

 

 

 

Edited January 2, 2022 by Mmehdy

[Robot Man]

In 50 years of collecting, I have never seen prices rise as much as they have in the past year or so. Just insane. 

My own collecting has slowed down to a dribble. I love high grade keys as much as everyone else but that ship sailed quite a while ago for me. I have been content to pick up lower grade but nice presenting books if the price is right. But even at the bottom grades, much of what I like has seen several multiples of what they were pre-covid.

And because of this, the places I really like to buy at, (in person) have for the most part stopped. No Cons, Flea Markets or Antique stores. What is left? Places that I have never preferred. Auctions. Weather the big Houses or IG or Ebay have seen such incredible competition, it is near impossible to buy much of anything at even crazy prices. 

I really feel for you younger guys. How do many ordinary folks with modest budgets ever expect to even put together a small run of any PCH title? The backbone of the hobby, folks who love the books have been rolled over by the deep pocketed Johnny come Lately investors. Hopefully the lovers of the medium can ride this out after the speculators lose their shirts and get out with a loss. 

I have collected what I liked for as long as Mitch and a few others here. Slowly, putting together a respectable collection. Taking advantage of deals and seeking out the books that others used to overlook. Just can't do that anymore.

Now, I'm not just some old geezer whining about the "good old days". I should be dancing for joy. If I were only in it for the money, I could cash in huge. Problem is, I still enjoy the books and the happiness they bring me. I have sold off a lot of stuff in the past few years that I could easily live without and cashed in big. So, not complaining at all.

I just still enjoy the "thrill of the hunt" and waiting for a cool package once in a while. I would LOVE to be able to go to a show for some hunting and chewing the fat with others, like my self that love the books. Hopefully, this pestilence runs it's course and I can get back in 2022...

[fifties]

Interesting treatise, Mitch, and I agree with szav that over the last 6 months damn near everything GA has shot up in "value".  I am curious though if the GA market has ever experienced a noticeable downturn?  Seems as you pointed out, it's simply gone through a slow but steady upward climb over the years.  Maybe some hiccups along the way in the nosebleed category, but for raw, reader grade books, always upward, at least the way it seemed to me.

I would like to point out a contributing aspect as well; I've noticed that the number of GA period comic books on eBay, which were at one time many moons ago taking up 4-6 pages of auction only, are down to about two pages now.  Ergo, the supply has diminished, and given a continually present demand, the price levels follow Econ 101.

[Ryan.]

The hunt is the fun for me. All the escalating prices have done is make me more patient and selective. 

[Robot Man]

On 1/2/2022 at 4:43 PM, fifties said:

Interesting treatise, Mitch, and I agree with szav that over the last 6 months damn near everything GA has shot up in "value".  I am curious though if the GA market has ever experienced a noticeable downturn?  Seems as you pointed out, it's simply gone through a slow but steady upward climb over the years.  Maybe some hiccups along the way in the nosebleed category, but for raw, reader grade books, always upward, at least the way it seemed to me.

I would like to point out a contributing aspect as well; I've noticed that the number of GA period comic books on eBay, which were at one time many moons ago taking up 4-6 pages of auction only, are down to about two pages now.  Ergo, the supply has diminished, and given a continually present demand, the price levels follow Econ 101.

I remember when I first started collecting that books like the first Tarzan, Prince Valiant and Flash Gordon were worth the same an an Action #1. We all know what happened there.

I remember when I first started collecting Avons and LB Cole. They were cheap. People started getting wise how cool they were and prices started shooting. I just re-directed my focus and bought other books until the prices leveled off and in some cases dipped a bit and jumped back in. Got a little break for a while then up they went again. Hard to touch nice LB Cole books anymore.

EC's are another interesting GA area. When I started, they were 4 to five times what other PCH were worth. So I scooped up all the cheaper Dark Mysteries, Mr. Mystery, Weird Tales of the Future ect. We all know where they went. When Cochran came out with the HB reprints, I sold off most of mine quickly and bought odd ball WWII covers, MLJ's, Ace, Nedors. I eventually came back to the fold and put together another set. At unbelievable prices to what I paid for them originally.

There was a SA boom at one time that slightly lowered the interest and prices of GA but people realized how much harder to find GA was and the prices started to rise again. 

In general, I have NEVER seen any crash on quality GA books though. Yeah, no interest in Classics Ill, Dell Westerns or Funny Animals but they have always had limited interest compared to "men in tights", horror, sci-fi, and classic covers. 

[Cat-Man_America]

My viewpoint is not too different from those expressed ...and big thanks to Mitch for contributing this thread.  I'm not nearly as tethered to fiscal quarters, ...lest the collector is concerned about being drawn, quartered and left as chum for piranha in the current market feeding frenzy.  

The theory I gravitate toward is the expanding universe theory of comic values, with higher grade GA continuing to expand outward from lower and mid-grade values to those with the capital and an eye toward investment.  Current indicators suggest that all ranges will continue to expand upward, but I doubt the margins for lower and mid-grades will grow much beyond what Mitch is suggesting.  Money market shifts probably should be factored in based on inflationary trends, but the limited quantities and appeal of GA will likely continue to be a game driver of auction house musical chairs for the foreseeable future.

I'm still wary of census numbers that are a good predictor of bubbles in comics markets from SA onward, and whether continued market growth can be sustained over multi-generational pursuit (long boxes of comics stored ad infinitum like a scene resembling the warehouse at the end of Raiders of The Lost Ark).  

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

On 1/2/2022 at 4:10 PM, Mmehdy said:

BOTTOM LINE: Strong demand and price appreciation thru June 2022...with reduced price appreciation and lower demand  slowdown for the remainder of the year thru December 2022 

 

 2021 will go down in the record books as a year when the million dollar price level or the speculator level hit all time high in the GA comic book market as well as the SA market.  This endless demand for Mega Keys GA books spilled over to the lower graded GA top 10 books which cracked the 7 digit price level . This demand and incredible and unsustainable price increases has a danger of hitting a wall and then  going on a fall. The number of comic book investors or widget buyers entering the 2021 market created a concern for intelligent long term real comic book collectors and investor /collectors as to what happens when the speculators pull out or pull back to the prices paid in 2021. Price recovery was the major concern should a necessity require a sale of the GA comic book purchased in 2021 and sold at the end of 2022 or  in 2023. In conversation with another 50 year plus comic book collector he was alarmed that over the last 50 years comic book values has gone up steady and slowly..thus a solid foundation underneath should prices give way to a demand reduction. He stated when "Overstreet" controlled the market, it kind of put a ceiling on rampant investor price run up where the bottom could fall out. He thought " Overstreet" and the price guide which were deliberately price low on especially the top 5 books a brilliant strategy, in which if price did correct it would go down to the actual price guide price and thus on paper show NO loss of value relative to Overstreet's current market prices. That has over the years changed with the GPA and auction archives.

 We agreed on one thing 100%, that with value of money and holding  in a inflationary  time  you will lose value.The government says the rate is 7% per year, and we all know it is really higher, but if had $100,000 in Jan 2021, today in Jan 2022 it is only worth $93,000 so just by going to sleep at night you lose $584 per month. This increases demand to place  that money in something that will hold and possibly increase over this inflationary period. What helped create this price bubble was the government spending or forgiving, and  giving away trillions of dollars, buying up bonds to keep their price down to inflate the real estate market with super cheap money to create demand on a already under built housing market and creating a stock buying frenzy in which bond investors are running to the market because of low treasury and bond yields. Hence we have 2021 and investors have come into this market, and other collectable markets such as cards and coins and have throw a bunch of money into it. One problem: we have to live with it...after they have come and gone.

 So the government has do something to turn the Titanic money flow around and it moves slowly. First they are tapering off the bond buying and should be out of the market by mid year, second they have announced 3 interest rate hikes in 2022 and there could be more. When Bonds prices become more attractive it will like the tide on a beach suck back the money that went out to a normal heathy balance between equities and bonds.

 So, myself and the 50 years plus collector agree that the key to 2022 is WHO YOU ARE as a collector, investor or both. If you are a true comic book collector who is here for the long run...most likely you will be the most unaffected by any short term 5 year GA comic book market price reality and gravity effect which is gonna naturally occur.

 I fully expect to see continued record prices for GA across the board, not just mega keys but pedigree and semi-keys and exceptional high graded unrestored GA with excellent page quality and staple explode first quarter 2022 and spilling over to second quarter 2022. Then slowly things will  begin to  reflect true price reality. As money becomes more expensive to borrow or being given away less and  there will be a natural price /demand  pullback in a lot of markets as the speculators exit. So maybe things in 3Q 2022 go up 10% instead of 30% but by the end of the year the GA comic book market should get back to sanity and provide a reasonable and hopefully sustainable grown in the future.

Your SELL strategy should be to do it sooner rather than later this year, and remember when you consign an item it take a couple of months to get it on board and into a future auction. Sure its possible prices will increase all year and slower towards the end, but it is wise to sell during a up market and take the sure thing rather than waiting and hoping you can time the actual market peak price and demand curve.

Your BUY strategy should always follow the golden rule....buy what you can AFFORD with the ability to hold on mid or long term should market conditions change unfavorably and that would be perfect. But reality is just not perfect....so I would be picky...on what I would be given the current market conditions. I would not compromise on staple rust, questionable paper page quality, and GA cover quality with a eye towards cover fading..no matter what the price. CGC graded would be a must for any type of serious purchase, why take the change when you do not have too....If the price is too good on Ebay, chances are there is a reason.

2022 is going to be a incredible year for all GA and SA collectors...just pay attention to where the economic winds are blowing and make safe and sane choices to make you GA collection better in 2022. Your thoughts will be appreciated......

 

 Happy new year

 

 

 

A lot to unpack and process here. I had to put it away and reread this a couple times. My first thought, after the cold shower here, was “let’s get a rope”. But the more I read this, the more I think we would all do well to incorporate your message into our approach to the hobby. You should send this into Overstreet. The market reports are the first thing I read in OPG (hey @Primetime!)and although yours has a little more  “Here be dragons” warnings, I think this is important stuff. Thanks Mitch. Well done. Now let’s go see what 2022 brings

p.s. - I can’t believe you didn’t  mention Cap 1!  

Edited January 3, 2022 by GreatCaesarsGhost

[Dark Knight]

On 1/3/2022 at 5:25 AM, GreatCaesarsGhost said:

On 1/2/2022 at 2:10 PM, Mmehdy said:

BOTTOM LINE: Strong demand and price appreciation thru June 2022...with reduced price appreciation and lower demand  slowdown for the remainder of the year thru December 2022 

 

 2021 will go down in the record books as a year when the million dollar price level or the speculator level hit all time high in the GA comic book market as well as the SA market.  This endless demand for Mega Keys GA books spilled over to the lower graded GA top 10 books which cracked the 7 digit price level . This demand and incredible and unsustainable price increases has a danger of hitting a wall and then  going on a fall. The number of comic book investors or widget buyers entering the 2021 market created a concern for intelligent long term real comic book collectors and investor /collectors as to what happens when the speculators pull out or pull back to the prices paid in 2021. Price recovery was the major concern should a necessity require a sale of the GA comic book purchased in 2021 and sold at the end of 2022 or  in 2023. In conversation with another 50 year plus comic book collector he was alarmed that over the last 50 years comic book values has gone up steady and slowly..thus a solid foundation underneath should prices give way to a demand reduction. He stated when "Overstreet" controlled the market, it kind of put a ceiling on rampant investor price run up where the bottom could fall out. He thought " Overstreet" and the price guide which were deliberately price low on especially the top 5 books a brilliant strategy, in which if price did correct it would go down to the actual price guide price and thus on paper show NO loss of value relative to Overstreet's current market prices. That has over the years changed with the GPA and auction archives.

 We agreed on one thing 100%, that with value of money and holding  in a inflationary  time  you will lose value.The government says the rate is 7% per year, and we all know it is really higher, but if had $100,000 in Jan 2021, today in Jan 2022 it is only worth $93,000 so just by going to sleep at night you lose $584 per month. This increases demand to place  that money in something that will hold and possibly increase over this inflationary period. What helped create this price bubble was the government spending or forgiving, and  giving away trillions of dollars, buying up bonds to keep their price down to inflate the real estate market with super cheap money to create demand on a already under built housing market and creating a stock buying frenzy in which bond investors are running to the market because of low treasury and bond yields. Hence we have 2021 and investors have come into this market, and other collectable markets such as cards and coins and have throw a bunch of money into it. One problem: we have to live with it...after they have come and gone.

 So the government has do something to turn the Titanic money flow around and it moves slowly. First they are tapering off the bond buying and should be out of the market by mid year, second they have announced 3 interest rate hikes in 2022 and there could be more. When Bonds prices become more attractive it will like the tide on a beach suck back the money that went out to a normal heathy balance between equities and bonds.

 So, myself and the 50 years plus collector agree that the key to 2022 is WHO YOU ARE as a collector, investor or both. If you are a true comic book collector who is here for the long run...most likely you will be the most unaffected by any short term 5 year GA comic book market price reality and gravity effect which is gonna naturally occur.

 I fully expect to see continued record prices for GA across the board, not just mega keys but pedigree and semi-keys and exceptional high graded unrestored GA with excellent page quality and staple explode first quarter 2022 and spilling over to second quarter 2022. Then slowly things will  begin to  reflect true price reality. As money becomes more expensive to borrow or being given away less and  there will be a natural price /demand  pullback in a lot of markets as the speculators exit. So maybe things in 3Q 2022 go up 10% instead of 30% but by the end of the year the GA comic book market should get back to sanity and provide a reasonable and hopefully sustainable grown in the future.

Your SELL strategy should be to do it sooner rather than later this year, and remember when you consign an item it take a couple of months to get it on board and into a future auction. Sure its possible prices will increase all year and slower towards the end, but it is wise to sell during a up market and take the sure thing rather than waiting and hoping you can time the actual market peak price and demand curve.

Your BUY strategy should always follow the golden rule....buy what you can AFFORD with the ability to hold on mid or long term should market conditions change unfavorably and that would be perfect. But reality is just not perfect....so I would be picky...on what I would be given the current market conditions. I would not compromise on staple rust, questionable paper page quality, and GA cover quality with a eye towards cover fading..no matter what the price. CGC graded would be a must for any type of serious purchase, why take the change when you do not have too....If the price is too good on Ebay, chances are there is a reason.

2022 is going to be a incredible year for all GA and SA collectors...just pay attention to where the economic winds are blowing and make safe and sane choices to make you GA collection better in 2022. Your thoughts will be appreciated......

 

 Happy new year

 

 

 

Expand  

A lot to unpack and process here. I had to put it away and reread this a couple times. My first thought, after the cold shower here, was “let’s get a rope”. But the more I read this, the more I think we would all do well to incorporate your message into our approach to the hobby. You should send this into Overstreet. The market reports are the first thing I read in OPG (hey @Primetime!)and although yours has a little more  “Here be dragons” warnings, I think this is important stuff. Thanks Mitch. Well done. Now let’s go see what 2022 brings

p.s. - I can’t believe you didn’t  mention Cap 1!  

I'll say it on his behalf..  Cap #1 will be the most valuable book in 2022

[Robot Man]

On 1/2/2022 at 11:20 PM, Cat-Man_America said:

My viewpoint is not too different from those expressed ...and big thanks to Mitch for contributing this thread.  I'm not nearly as tethered to fiscal quarters, ...lest the collector is concerned about being drawn, quartered and left as chum for piranha in the current market feeding frenzy.  

The theory I gravitate toward is the expanding universe theory of comic values, with higher grade GA continuing to expand outward from lower and mid-grade values to those with the capital and an eye toward investment.  Current indicators suggest that all ranges will continue to expand upward, but I doubt the margins for lower and mid-grades will grow much beyond what Mitch is suggesting.  Money market shifts probably should be factored in based on inflationary trends, but the limited quantities and appeal of GA will likely continue to be a game driver of auction house musical chairs for the foreseeable future.

I'm still wary of census numbers that are a good predictor of bubbles in comics markets from SA onward, and whether continued market growth can be sustained over multi-generational pursuit (long boxes of comics stored ad infinitum like a scene resembling the warehouse at the end of Raiders of The Lost Ark).  

I have to respectfully disagree with the assessment that lower grade quality GA is a bad idea.

I have always said that for every high grade buyer, there are 10 buyers for lower grade books that buyers who don’t have the means, to swim in the deep end.

A high grade copy that doubles in value in any given time (especially recently) translates to often to 4 times the value of the same lower grade copy.

I am speaking of solid 2.0-4.0 copies in general. Books that are complete with nice eye appeal and decent paper quality.

To me, a 7.0 is the new 9.0. And I am willing to take MUCH lower grades for the right books at the right price. On scarce GA, sometimes you buy what you can get and upgrade later if possible.

And when it comes to reselling, pretty much any 2.0 PCH, EC, Schomburg, GGA ect fly out of my boxes at always VERY solid prices. 

[ThothAmon]

After 40 something years of buying more than I’ve sold I’m tickled pink by the crazy market. CGC graded books, of whatever era, sell like bearer bonds and I’ve been lucky enough to turn a lot of modern, bronze and silver into gold. Just don’t take on debt to buy books is my only advice. 

Edited January 3, 2022 by ThothAmon

[woowoo]

All I got to say is I don't see any early More Funs on eBay anymore like under 50 

[Funnybooks]

On 1/3/2022 at 12:43 PM, ThothAmon said:

After 40 something years of buying more than I’ve sold I’m tickled pink by the crazy market. CGC graded books, of whatever era, sell like bearer bonds and I’ve been lucky enough to turn a lot of modern, bronze and silver into gold. Just don’t take on debt to buy books is my only advice. 

I beg to differ 

https://www.thecollectoracademy.com/collector-academy1638678423301

[Robot Man]

On 1/3/2022 at 9:43 AM, ThothAmon said:

After 40 something years of buying more than I’ve sold I’m tickled pink by the crazy market. CGC graded books, of whatever era, sell like bearer bonds and I’ve been lucky enough to turn a lot of modern, bronze and silver into gold. Just don’t take on debt to buy books is my only advice. 

I have done real well selling off multiple copies of ASM 300, Batman Advs 12 and many others and rolling that money into a few scarce GA big books.

Time will tell if it was a smart move but I strongly suspect I will never be sorry. Rarity and quality have always preformed well for me. And considering I paid cover price or less for what I sold I am 

And yes, Never go into debt to buy comics! My collection has always been self funded. This process has always served me well. 

[Robot Man]

On 1/3/2022 at 9:47 AM, woowoo said:

All I got to say is I don't see any early More Funs on eBay anymore like under 50 

I have always loved the More Fun Spectre and Dr Fate covers. Other than maybe early Batman, easily my favorite early DC characters. Always been tough to find anywhere.

I hear about DCs dipping but am still waiting to see this title dip to an affordable level. 

[buttock]

On 1/3/2022 at 10:00 AM, Robot Man said:

I have to respectfully disagree with the assessment that lower grade quality GA is a bad idea.

I have always said that for every high grade buyer, there are 10 buyers for lower grade books that buyers who don’t have the means, to swim in the deep end.

A high grade copy that doubles in value in any given time (especially recently) translates to often to 4 times the value of the same lower grade copy.

I am speaking of solid 2.0-4.0 copies in general. Books that are complete with nice eye appeal and decent paper quality.

To me, a 7.0 is the new 9.0. And I am willing to take MUCH lower grades for the right books at the right price. On scarce GA, sometimes you buy what you can get and upgrade later if possible.

And when it comes to reselling, pretty much any 2.0 PCH, EC, Schomburg, GGA ect fly out of my boxes at always VERY solid prices. 

Yup.  High grade gets all the talk, but low grade sells.  Most collectors can't afford $20-30k for PCH (which is what pretty much every classic cover is fetching in HG... just wild).  Plus it's easier to find.  Look at all the new guys in IG.  Very few people are showing off high grade GA, but lots of beat up books, conserved labels seem really popular, etc., because that's what you can find.  

[Aman619]

On 1/3/2022 at 12:50 PM, Funnybooks said:

I beg to differ 

https://www.thecollectoracademy.com/collector-academy1638678423301

That guy is a hoot!  I can never figure out how anyone is gullible enough to fall for these subscription based masters of getting rich seminars etc. Their entire sales pitch is illogical and anyone interested must ask the simple question that greed prevents them from seein* upfront!  If these techniques work, and the master is so successful and rich… why would they bother with penny ante subscription fees, and dealing with inexperience rubes for small change?  Every minute explaining to people how to get rich is a minute away from making more money himself than the fees he getting.  As well as creating his own competitors, in this case for only $750 down!  as if anyone can learn real estate, or even comics collecting in a short time.  

cant people see this?

[LearnedHand]

Downturns:  there have a been a few periods where the market has been flat.  And, those who were collecting GA in the early 1990s will likely recall there was a downturn then, which, amazingly, even resulted in a few pricing corrections by Overstreet. There was another period of flatness in the early 2000s, before the Marvel films stimulated things.  In that period, I recall 2-3 CGC 8.0 Cap Am Comics #1 sitting at shows at $50k unsold.  One seller eventually offered me his copy at $42k, since it hadn't moved at the $50k price in over 3 years.   

 

In terms of the stimulus money being a large contributor to what we're now seeing, I continue to have a lot of difficulty with this one and really wish someone could explain it with facts and no logic gaps.  To my knowledge, stimulus checks, fundamentally, are assisting unemployed persons ensure their basic needs are met.  It's difficult to imagine people foregoing food, shelter, car payments, etc. for comic books.  And, even if these folks would rather be homeless and starving in favor of owning $20k - $50k  - $100k books, there would need to be a sufficient number of these folks - that are higher-end comic book collectors and using these funds for comic books - to move the market needle.  And, even if this were somehow true, stimulus checks amount to a few thousand dollars.  That, to me, can't explain how 4, 5, and 6 figure books are now selling for multiples that exceed/far exceed the entire value of the stimulus check.  

 

The pandemic's impact on entertainment and travel did cause an uptick in money for discretionary spending.  I'm not convinced, however, that using this extra money to pay unwarranted GPA multiples for any given book would be considered a prudent decision.  And, I don't think over-paying now is necessarily mitigated by "holding this material long-term."  This assumes everything appreciates over time; but history has proven many titles and characters that were "hot" 20-30-40 years ago are now flat, dying, or dead.  I think the "hold long-term" philosophy holds for true blue chips, but not necessarily for every other Promise book title currently selling at inexplicable multiples.  My 0.2 ...

         

Edited January 3, 2022 by LearnedHand

[Aman619]

Yeah… stimulus money to replace regular earnings doesn’t get those people to sufficient cash to buy 20K comics.  But extraordinary gains from investments did.  The markets have soared these past two years for those who do now have 50K to 1M liquid that coupled with a fever to invest in collectibles like Marvel comics characters has happened.  I struggled with just WHO is buying this stuff all of a sudden.  But it’s starting to make sense.  The pool of people who now feel it’s safe to invest in comics, looking to diversify, and buy cool stuff, and who actually believe they are getting in early! Has grown due to the movies, and pools of profits from all their investments.  What else could it be?

Edited January 4, 2022 by Aman619

[Cat-Man_America]

On 1/3/2022 at 11:00 AM, Robot Man said:

I have to respectfully disagree with the assessment that lower grade quality GA is a bad idea.

I have always said that for every high grade buyer, there are 10 buyers for lower grade books that buyers who don’t have the means, to swim in the deep end.

A high grade copy that doubles in value in any given time (especially recently) translates to often to 4 times the value of the same lower grade copy.

I am speaking of solid 2.0-4.0 copies in general. Books that are complete with nice eye appeal and decent paper quality.

To me, a 7.0 is the new 9.0. And I am willing to take MUCH lower grades for the right books at the right price. On scarce GA, sometimes you buy what you can get and upgrade later if possible.

And when it comes to reselling, pretty much any 2.0 PCH, EC, Schomburg, GGA ect fly out of my boxes at always VERY solid prices. 

I'd disagree too, ...if someone suggested buying lower grade quality is a "bad idea" and probably not as respectfully.  The expanding universe theory is about the growing range between grade prices.  This falls right in line with the big gavel theory and the sizable bang it produces on wallets before the universe folds in upon itself. 

I don't predict lower grade book prices will plummet.  To the contrary, all grades should continue to rise for awhile, lower grades just not as dramatically.  

You're right that there being more buyers for lower grade books, but that doesn't mean collectors who buy lower grades are simply uninterested in big ticket books.  Collectors will often upgrade if the right opportunity presents itself, at which point the under copy may be sold, ...or not.  Some collectors just like owning multiple copies.

As for 7.0 being the new 9.0 to you, I had no idea we were discussing CGC grading in this thread.  

[sagii]

Low grade gold continues to shock and awe: look at the recent results like a Zip 3 last night 1.5 cover completely split/tape pulling in over 3k

The .5 missing back cover Fantastic 3, the slightly brittle pages copies of early MM Timelys and early Batman Tecs

Collectors are realizing its better to have something than nothing on many of these extremely costly in high grade or virtually unseen gold age gems,  driving even missing pieces and low PQ examples up. You'd have to have a silver mega key to bring those kinds of numbers with the same defects by comparison. 

Everytime i think "there can't possibly be anymore money this round after 3 back to back auctions from the big 3 can there?! I should be able to pick up 'book x' at a reasonable price", I'm blown away by a competitive bidder or pay through the nose. Bargains are almost non existent (except beating some one to the punch on dealer inventory or eBay). 

I don't see it ending, but who knows, Mitch has been at this a long time so...

Great thread btw @Mmehdy

Edited January 4, 2022 by sagii