Raw NM pricing

[Aman619]

When CGC started and introduced the Qualified grade, I imagined it was for the exact book you describe: A beautiful copy with one serious but sorta minor flaw like a small rip on back cover. I know not everyone agrees on the relative un-importance of a BACK cover, and some just hate rips of any length...but one minor flaw on an otherwise "newsstand-looking" book deserves special recognition of some sort.

[LordRahl]

O.K. this is twice I've agreed with JC Stop it! With very few exceptions I wouldn't pay more than 2x guide for any raw book. Even paying 2x guide would be if I was reasonably sure there was no resto and I thought the book was a solid 9.4, borderline 9.6 as opposed to a borderline 9.2-9.4. If a dealer wants to charge CGC prices, then slab the damn book. Otherwise don't expect me to pay 5x guide for something that could potentially come back a 9.2 or even worse resto'd. That's why I've been shocked at some of the raw prices books on ebay have been getting. You're not even looking at the book in person, how can you justify 4.5x guide for a MS 5?

[Rickdogg]

I'm jumping on this thread late, but I would never like to pay CGC prices for a raw book. I'd rather have the slab just in case I need to sell fast to buy an upgrade or more expensive book i'm going after. The liquidity that a slab brings is unrivaled by its raw counterpart.

[hammer-migration]

"...a lot more books are trimmed than one would suspect"

 

Let me amend your statement:

 

Alot more books are trimmed than one could possibly imagine, both raw AND CGCed.

 

Ever think of it THIS way:

 

Maybe a seller who SEEMS to specialize in RAW books somehow slips many, many thousands of dollars worth of trimmed books right past CGC each month, and gets them slabbed, BLUE, even though he LETS himself get "smoked" every once in a while to let CGC think that they're CATCHING his attempts. He's using TWO DIFFERENT STYLES of trim. One that he KNOWS will pass, and one that he KNOWS will be detected. He doesn't even submit all these books himself, but through a few different submittors as well that he takes care of on each set of submissions. He buys a book with a LOUSY overhang and puts a new, factory appearing overhang on it WITHOUT the tears. He also deliberately fails (uses the trimming technique that WILL fail to pass 1 out of 10 times) so CGC will be lulled into thinking that these submittors have a high incidence of trimmed books BUT "we're catching it EVERY time". I'm not saying that this scenario exists, but with all the hypothetical theories stated here and other areas of the forum, this IS a remote possibility, if you believe that ANYTHING is possible if one sets their mind on it.

[sfilosa]

Hammer, I agree with you that there are probably some CGC books that have a blue label that are trimmed.

 

I have seen several books on various auction sites that eitherare trimmed or the bottom width of the book is 1/8" less than the top width of the book.

 

The problem I see with CGC books is not CGC but the buyers. It still doesn't make sense to me that a NM 9.4 would sell for say $500 and a NM- 9.2 would sell for $200 (but that is the approximate mark up based on my analysis).

 

The difference between these two grades is way more subjective than scientific.

 

 

[seank]

This may not affect a lot of posters here, but the majority of collectors are still the traditional raw buyers, and I'm sure this new trend of slabbing every NM candidate in sight will eventually force them to buy slabs

 

My gut reaction to this statement was that if every NM issue of a certain book is slabbed (or at least every book on the market, I think there will always be HG books tied up in permanent collections), then there can be no difference between the raw and CGC prices. The CGC price is going to drop because there's not going to be any reason for that CGC premium. Without raw and CGC on the market, there will be no two-tier demand and thus no two-tier pricing. "Raw" buyers will be forced to buy CGC and they won't want to pay the premium. Dealers, faced with dusty stock or dollars in the pocket, will have lower prices closer to what raw books get.

[sfilosa]

I think that is wishful thinking.

 

Regardless of what anyone says, high grade books (that are in demand) always carried a significant premium (even 25 years ago). The problem was always this:

 

You could buy Issue #X in NM from a known dealer (whose books are generally overgrade) for $100.

 

Or you can buy Issue #X in NM from a very strict grader for $150.

 

Buying through the mail, if was hard not to buy from the first dealer because you could always hope his book was a true NM (or atleast a NM-).

 

The truth was, it was usually closer to a VF. You didn't want to return the book because by the time you paid shipping both ways, you were out $10 (or 10%).

 

Therefore, you kept the book and the dealer reported that a NM copy sold for $100 (which was not accurate).

 

CGC books will always carry a premium because if you buy a NM book, your pretty sure you didn't get a VF.

[fantastic_four]

I'm not entirely sure what you're argument is. The only reason to keep books unslabbed is so that you can offer them at a cheaper price to your customer.

My argument is that I'm willing to pay multiples for raw books if I have strong reason to believe that the seller can detect restoration. If Tracey Heft, Matt Nelson, Susan Cicconi, Steve Borock, Mark Haspel, or Chris Friesan started selling raw vintage books on E-Bay and stated that every book was guaranteed unrestored or your money back, would that be as good to you as buying a slabbed book? What if ComGeek started saying in his auctions that all raw books with a reserve greater than $500 had been restoration checked using a stereoscope, bright flouorescent light, and ultraviolet light prior to being listed--would that make you consider paying multiples for raw 9.4 or 9.6 prices if refunds were guaranteed?

[fantastic_four]

I have seen several books on various auction sites that eitherare trimmed or the bottom width of the book is 1/8" less than the top width of the book.

How can you tell those books that are 1/8" narrower on the bottom than the top weren't the victim of a miscut during the original printing? There are several examples of issues where it's harder to find an evenly cut copy of the issue than an unevenly cut one.

[sfilosa]

I can't tell if it was trimmed or miscut, which is why I would want a so called expert to verify. If I had seen (or owned) ten copies of every book, I might be able tell if it was trimmed.

 

Also, I would never pay the same for a raw book as a CGC book , because even if it doesn't have restoration, I can't guarantee what grade it would receive. What I believe most people would say is if they thought the book might be a 9.6 raw, then they might pay the CGC 9.4 price (in case they were off only a little) but hope that they did get a CGC 9.6 book.

[seank]

I hear there's a guy on ebay named Stckwzrd who sells "NM" books that are guaranteed to be free of restoriation...

[Rickdogg]

I believe him. If crack wizard's books are restored, then those things must have been 0.5 before the restoration process.

[fantastic_four]

Also, I would never pay the same for a raw book as a CGC book , because even if it doesn't have restoration, I can't guarantee what grade it would receive.

This is where the trustworthiness and skill of either the seller and the buyer makes a difference. I feel like I can call grades above 7.0 about as well as CGC can, and like CGC's graders, I've got a margin of error of 1 to 2 notches on the 25-point scale. And some dealers I trust to grade the same way.

[joe_collector]

>>This is where the trustworthiness and skill of either the seller and the buyer makes a difference. I feel like I can call grades above 7.0 about as well as CGC can, and like CGC's graders, I've got a margin of error of 1 to 2 notches on the 25-point scale. And some dealers I trust to grade the same way.

 

Sure, that's all great IF you are going to keep the book for life. If not, just try re-selling that NM raw copy on EBay, compared to selling a slabbed copy and seeing how different the final prices are.

 

Liquidity is extremely high with CGC copies, and as no one ever knows what'll happen next, I'd never pay the same price for a raw 9.4 as a CGC 9.4.

[comicwiz]

I would never buy a raw NM comic for anywhere near the price of a CGC NM 9.4.

 

Never? How about if you had an opportunity to buy a raw copy of Hulk 181, that had all the indicators of a solid NM 9.4, for the NM 9.4 guide price (US $1150)? Although this is rare, the point is that with certain "undervalued" comics, paying NM prices may translate into multiple yields on the flip. Its still a gamble, but then again, there is such a thing as a calculated risk.

[joe_collector]

Re-read the statement, it's equivalent Raw vs. CGC prices we're talking about, not Overstreet.

[fantastic_four]

Sure, that's all great IF you are going to keep the book for life. If not, just try re-selling that NM raw copy on EBay, compared to selling a slabbed copy and seeing how different the final prices are.

Oh yea...forgot what a bourgeoisie flipper you are.

[joe_collector]

I don't flip books, but I'm not stupid. If I'm paying slabbed prices, then please include a slab.

[fantastic_four]

If a book is an unrestored 9.0 or better, what difference does it make whether it's in or out of a slab? You've pointed out CGC's inconsistency yourself many times and how the number on the slab isn't an absolute; are you now saying that quality isn't quality unless CGC says so?

[Aman619]

Hammer maybe because you wrote this at 5AM and were delirious...but just coming up with and laying out this plan to systematically and deviously "outwit' CGC with trimmed books is downright...scary. and comes across as somewhat more than just idle speculation...

 

But as I say, you were probably dreaming when you typed it.