What Has Happened to this Hobby? 5 5

[comicinkking.com]

I don't post much here.  And I don't come here to read much either, so pardon me if this has been discussed at length before (did not see any recent threads about it).  I've been collecting OA for close to 20 years now.  Prices have always climbed, and there have always been folks along the way who have said "this is it" - "prices are too high" - "this can't continue".  I've always disagreed with that thinking.  One of the factors in the past that had pushed prices up was "trading up" - you could make a nice profit on something you bought long ago, and then use that money to buy something "bigger and better."  I've done that countless times myself as I'm sure many others here have done.  But recently, the market has me scratching my head. In all my years (and I know some have been at it even longer), I've never seen anything like today's market.  Prices aren't just high - they're insane (just saw the first round of Heritage close today!).  I did see this comment in my search here earlier, and it mirrored what I was thinking after looking at the HA results today:

"There is no doubt we are now competing with wealthy individuals who are not traditional OA fans, but have been professionally advised to buy OA; this is skewing higher end prices accordingly while also causing a trickle-down boost to lower tier art prices. You're not just competing with other Carillo fans now -- you're competing with folks who would normally spend $5K on a John Buscema Avengers or DC Kirby page, but are finding prices moving too high so they are snapping up decent art "bargains" (like that $2,800 page)."  (comment by Race)

Is this the general consensus?  Do we have deep pocket investors and speculators who have now moved in and are just bidding until they win (regardless of past sales)?  It seem like that's the strategy, and they are relying on the underbidder to "steer" them to a reasonable price.  In other words, "I don't need to know the market - I'll trust the other bidders".  And what is the implication of all this?  Are these prices here to stay?  Does it make the market more susceptible to a "crash" down the road when these guys decide to find another investment vehicle? (assuming this is really what's going on).

Would love to hear any and all thoughts on this.

Tony

 

[Infamouspure22]

Yeah it pretty much sucks lol.

For those guys who got the pieces they wanted while they were able to afford them, kudos to you all

 

Edited April 8, 2022 by Infamouspure22

[Xatari]

Nah, most of the big pieces today went to seasoned collectors, not investors being guided by a financial advisor.  I've yet to come across anyone in the hobby who is buying pieces because they were advised by a financial industry expert to do so.  I work in the financial industry myself, but original comic art really isn't something that comes up as an effective way to diversify assets as there is too much nuance and insider knowledge necessary to successfully navigate it. Don't get me wrong, if someone knows what they are doing and has the capital to invest, the returns over the past years for the "right pieces" outpaces most trading markets, but this is true of comics, games, cards, shoes, VHS tapes, etc.

I think we are simply seeing better marketing by the reps and dealers making it more visible and accessible, a centralized hub for the community through CAF, and an increase in collectibles prices across the board leaving room for people to take money off the table from selling one collectible and rolling it in to another.  I am speaking from my personal experience, having entered the hobby in the past few years. Where OA was once shrouded in mystery, now you have live unboxing by reps and "art drops" like a sneaker release.

The last point I want to address since it almost inevitably comes up in these threads, is there is still great OA to be had at affordable prices.  The veteran collectors in the hobby seem to all gravitate largely toward the same artists/runs/periods, leaving them feel priced out of these "marquee" pieces, but incredible art is still being made with fascinating new characters that stand up to the historic greats if read with an open mind.  Like most collectible markets, however, each collecting cohort gravitates toward the aspects of the hobby near and dear to their own childhood, and most veteran OA collectors stopped reading comics years ago.  This is why we have seen Silver, Bronze,  and Copper Age art dominate in recent years (along with the MCU boost), and why we are seeing 90s art really surge lately.  Just a matter of time for 2000s and even more modern to have their day, and the MCU is fast-tracking the popularity of many of these newer characters, allowing them to be household names... I'm talking about you Miles, Kate, Yelena, and Kamala.

Edited April 8, 2022 by Xatari

[gumbydarnit]

Tony, it is hardly a hobby any more.. it's more of a spectator sport for us and a speculator sport for a chosen few.

[delekkerste]

On 4/8/2022 at 1:15 AM, Xatari said:

The last point I want to address since it almost inevitably comes up in these threads, is there is still great OA to be had at affordable prices.

[Legion of Goom]

On 4/8/2022 at 8:29 AM, delekkerste said:

Thanks for making me spit milk out of my nose. Especially impressive considering I was drinking iced tea.

[delekkerste]

On 4/7/2022 at 9:51 PM, comicinkking.com said:

But recently, the market has me scratching my head. In all my years (and I know some have been at it even longer), I've never seen anything like today's market.  Prices aren't just high - they're insane (just saw the first round of Heritage close today!)

I think it's been a confluence of many factors:

1. Trillions of dollars of money printing and negative real interest rates for more than a decade have pumped up almost all asset prices to previously unfathomable levels. As such, many asset owners got huge profit windfalls (in stocks, real estate, cryptocurrency, art/collectibles, private investments, etc.) and have more money (and appreciated trade bait) than ever to spend on discretionary items

2.  The pandemic reversed the trend from experiences back to things in a huge way and also rekindled people's memories of happier times. Almost all nostalgia-based collectibles have skyrocketed over the past couple of years. 

3.  Related to #2, the explosion in trading cards over the past 2 years - price appreciation in many cases have made comic art gains look positively boring by comparison - has filtered into other collectible verticals in a huge way. You may recall that cards were rocketing higher in 2020 while comic art was chugging along at a more measured pace.

But, after the January 2021 Goldin Auctions sale (which saw two 1986 Fleer Michael Jordan PSA cards sell for $720K each, more than 20x their pre-pandemic price), the smart money in collectibles saw that comics had become absurdly cheap relative to cards. For example, pre-pandemic, a Hulk #1 CGC 9.2 was worth probably 8 or 10 1986 Fleer Michael Jordan PSA 10 cards. By Feb. 2021, it could barely buy half of ONE card. I had lunch with Vinny Zurzolo and Doc Joe that month and we were all frothing at the mouth that comic prices were going to rocket higher given what was happening in sports cards. And that's exactly what happened - prices did a hockey stick higher almost immediately after the Goldin sale. You could have bought an Amazing Fantasy #15 CGC 9.4 for about $1 million in March 2021. Now that book is somewhere in the $2.5 to $3 million range just ONE YEAR later.

4.  Heritage and others have done a great job of marketing the hobby and bringing in new collectors and investors. Heritage and its principals are also buying a lot for their own account(s), as are many others who believe in the longevity of the current trends in place.  

5.  As one hobby whale recently told me, he's seeing a lot of FOMO buying among long-time collectors afraid of being priced out completely in the future, to the point where they are willing to settle even for pieces that don't thrill them just to have an example.

Edited April 10, 2022 by delekkerste

[Phill the Governor]

On 4/7/2022 at 9:51 PM, comicinkking.com said:

I don't post much here.  And I don't come here to read much either, so pardon me if this has been discussed at length before (did not see any recent threads about it).  I've been collecting OA for close to 20 years now.  Prices have always climbed, and there have always been folks along the way who have said "this is it" - "prices are too high" - "this can't continue".  I've always disagreed with that thinking.  One of the factors in the past that had pushed prices up was "trading up" - you could make a nice profit on something you bought long ago, and then use that money to buy something "bigger and better."  I've done that countless times myself as I'm sure many others here have done.  But recently, the market has me scratching my head. In all my years (and I know some have been at it even longer), I've never seen anything like today's market.  Prices aren't just high - they're insane (just saw the first round of Heritage close today!).  I did see this comment in my search here earlier, and it mirrored what I was thinking after looking at the HA results today:

"There is no doubt we are now competing with wealthy individuals who are not traditional OA fans, but have been professionally advised to buy OA; this is skewing higher end prices accordingly while also causing a trickle-down boost to lower tier art prices. You're not just competing with other Carillo fans now -- you're competing with folks who would normally spend $5K on a John Buscema Avengers or DC Kirby page, but are finding prices moving too high so they are snapping up decent art "bargains" (like that $2,800 page)."  (comment by Race)

Is this the general consensus?  Do we have deep pocket investors and speculators who have now moved in and are just bidding until they win (regardless of past sales)?  It seem like that's the strategy, and they are relying on the underbidder to "steer" them to a reasonable price.  In other words, "I don't need to know the market - I'll trust the other bidders".  And what is the implication of all this?  Are these prices here to stay?  Does it make the market more susceptible to a "crash" down the road when these guys decide to find another investment vehicle? (assuming this is really what's going on).

Would love to hear any and all thoughts on this.

Tony

 

There is an unfortunate reality of price manipulation working with actual collectors bidding, and new collectors/investors coming into the hobby.

Often, all it takes is one insanely rich buyer (insert someone like Ayman Harari or Eric Roberts for example) putting in an early bid at an auction house, and then that bid gets underbid by the house and a new "record price" for the item has been set. But then when you consider other collectors/investors have the same book in grade/ or comparable piece of art, and now they want that much for their book/art too. Then someone who can afford it buys it, and that inflated/shilled price becomes reality because now there is a real amount of people who view the new set of prices as legitimate.

This is how the cycle of prices keeps moving around to, virtually everything through time. And the auction houses can regulate it as much as they want/ can get away with.

Take a look at this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rvLFEh7V18A&t=1s

Then follow up with this video that was in response to Wata & Heritage claiming the allegations made were unwarranted: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mKbuNwS-gaI

Not only is the above information obviously worrisome, it is at the very least morally unethical, and at worst completely illegal.

This is virtually the same type of scam being run in comics and comic art, by all the big auction houses (the big 3 at the very least) over the last several decades. The part of the scam that works so well is that there are tons of real collectors and investors. They simply don't have the means to dictate prices in the same way the auction houses do since they can underbid virtually every item they sell. Even if you're accounting for people shilling friends auctions (or their own) to set new GPA records, it pales in comparison to what the auction houses are doing. So the lie becomes real and everyone just keeps collecting what they afford and write off the insanely high prices as "new money" or "prices just increasing". Which may be true to an extent, but it doesn't negate the shill bidding and manipulation that is and continues to happen.

 

[vodou]

On 4/7/2022 at 9:51 PM, comicinkking.com said:

I've been collecting OA for close to 20 years now.

Congratulations -you're rich! (measured in art or money)

On 4/7/2022 at 9:51 PM, comicinkking.com said:

One of the factors in the past that had pushed prices up was "trading up" - you could make a nice profit on something you bought long ago, and then use that money to buy something "bigger and better."  I've done that countless times myself as I'm sure many others here have done.

Or maybe not, after all?

For about twenty years now I've considered "trading up" a terrible way to collect and haven't done it. Why? Because you are strip-mining your bench* to add a single star. I had done a bit of that very early on but found the practice leaving me feeling a bit empty. One new star in, bench cut in half. Bah! So then around that time, when my cumulative collection value was approximately what it would take, I tested myself with a thought experiment: would you trade it all for one top Frazetta oil? Answer: no. And that was that, I haven't looked back since. 

A much better idea, which I've practiced ever since, is to just pour as much new money as possible in -and be happy with what that level of spending buys. It's true that the first ten years of the new century, when prices were not moving up more than 10% or so a year, some years not particularly at all, some discipline and faith were required to stick to that plan but those were also the years when I was accumulating a ton of art, as my income was (still, then) climbing faster than prices! That's the essence of buy low and like any dollar cost averaging (DCA) plan, you will buy less and less quantity (for the same periodic outlay) as you climb the price ladder (which is a sign that your early faith was well-founded after all) but you'll also see the value of your existing accumulation (your bench!) to date rising along with. And...

On 4/8/2022 at 1:15 AM, Xatari said:

...there is still great OA to be had at affordable prices.

Which means you can still buy "today" like yesterday and for around the same money, meaning just as many pieces coming in and approximately just as much thrills (a much anticipated package arriving several times a week if not every day) as before...if you're flexible on content. Are you collecting art or certain specific nostalgic characters/titles/companies/era? Your answer there is going to drive it all. To those that most/all of the above doesn't work for...I wish you the best and it's well past time to buckle down and get another degree or suite of professional designations along with a second job as you're going to need to double your income every year to keep up with the limited pool of art you're stuck on that's also doubling every year. No snark, just how it is.

*Imagine if the New England Patriots hadn't had a sudden QB health problem requiring promotion of Tom (from The Bench) and instead Drew stayed healthy and NE traded Tom away for a "star" replacement a few seasons later? Lots of (future) stars start off riding the bench, just like the mountains of 1980s Marvel panel pages I was buying for less than $50/page 25 years ago -glad I kept 'em!

[zhamlau]

"Hobby"

[Xatari]

@vodouWell thought out response. Thank you for sharing. 

[Phill the Governor]

For anyone who simply glossed over my comment:

Here's an article from 1989 about fraud in the graded coins industry. Implicated were a few individuals, including Jim Halperin:

• https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1989-08-10-vw-88-story.html

If you go to Jim's wikipedia page, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_L._Halperin, the literal last line at the top of his bio is:

• "...He and his businesses have been sued by federal agencies (including the FTC) multiple times for fraud, among other allegations, where he was ordered to pay substantial fees."

Now, If you haven't already, go back and watch and listen to this piece of investigative journalism about fraud in the graded video game market (and the followup video) which implicates (amongst others) Jim Halperin... again. This is a very well argued piece of journalism in my view, and I'd love to hear differing opinions.

• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rvLFEh7V18A&t=1s
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mKbuNwS-gaI

 

So you have (one guy) with a history of market manipulation, and new evidence showing he's clearly attempting to manipulate another market. One would be incredibly gullible and naive to assume this hasn't/isn't still happening in the comic book/ original comic art collecting world. Jim just happens to co-chairman of Heritage Auctions. Do you think the other auction houses, who also have their own databases and can see client bids, don't also take advantage of manipulating prices when it benefits their bottom line? This is not a conspiracy, the proof is mountains high. I've seen some of it with my own eyes and understand why many people will not even bid at any of the big auction houses. The auction houses have taken organic increases in prices and growth and compressed it into far less time because they want more money.

While increases in prices are bound to happen, the unprecedented increase in many prices has been primarily influenced by manipulation. True collector's setting new prices for things are outliers by and large, and in most cases (not all, for sure) are done by people with virtually unlimited funds. People trading up pieces for one big one isn't a reason for prices climbing, if anything it's a symptom of prices climbing to unreasonable levels and it's the only way collectors can adapt to get things they otherwise are priced out of.

 

Gene is definitely also correct about FOMO. That is certainly a driving force nowadays, despite the manipulation.

 

Edited April 8, 2022 by Phill the Governor

[Xatari]

I think it is a little different in the OA space as Jim personally collects art himself so he is actively buying pieces for his personal collection. 
 

I have read and watched all the pieces to which you referred above previously, but I do think there is a difference in this particular example. 

[Timely]

On 4/8/2022 at 11:36 AM, vodou said:

Congratulations -you're rich! (measured in art or money)

Or maybe not, after all?

For about twenty years now I've considered "trading up" a terrible way to collect and haven't done it. Why? Because you are strip-mining your bench* to add a single star. I had done a bit of that very early on but found the practice leaving me feeling a bit empty. One new star in, bench cut in half. Bah! So then around that time, when my cumulative collection value was approximately what it would take, I tested myself with a thought experiment: would you trade it all for one top Frazetta oil? Answer: no. And that was that, I haven't looked back since. 

A much better idea, which I've practiced ever since, is to just pour as much new money as possible in -and be happy with what that level of spending buys. It's true that the first ten years of the new century, when prices were not moving up more than 10% or so a year, some years not particularly at all, some discipline and faith were required to stick to that plan but those were also the years when I was accumulating a ton of art, as my income was (still, then) climbing faster than prices! That's the essence of buy low and like any dollar cost averaging (DCA) plan, you will buy less and less quantity (for the same periodic outlay) as you climb the price ladder (which is a sign that your early faith was well-founded after all) but you'll also see the value of your existing accumulation (your bench!) to date rising along with. And...

Which means you can still buy "today" like yesterday and for around the same money, meaning just as many pieces coming in and approximately just as much thrills (a much anticipated package arriving several times a week if not every day) as before...if you're flexible on content. Are you collecting art or certain specific nostalgic characters/titles/companies/era? Your answer there is going to drive it all. To those that most/all of the above doesn't work for...I wish you the best and it's well past time to buckle down and get another degree or suite of professional designations along with a second job as you're going to need to double your income every year to keep up with the limited pool of art you're stuck on that's also doubling every year. No snark, just how it is.

*Imagine if the New England Patriots hadn't had a sudden QB health problem requiring promotion of Tom (from The Bench) and instead Drew stayed healthy and NE traded Tom away for a "star" replacement a few seasons later? Lots of (future) stars start off riding the bench, just like the mountains of 1980s Marvel panel pages I was buying for less than $50/page 25 years ago -glad I kept 'em!

Do you want 1 Michael Jordan or 20 Joe Blows? Quality over quantity! All day, every day!

[RBerman]

On 4/8/2022 at 11:36 AM, vodou said:

Congratulations -you're rich! (measured in art or money)

Or maybe not, after all?

For about twenty years now I've considered "trading up" a terrible way to collect and haven't done it. Why? Because you are strip-mining your bench* to add a single star. I had done a bit of that very early on but found the practice leaving me feeling a bit empty. One new star in, bench cut in half. Bah! So then around that time, when my cumulative collection value was approximately what it would take, I tested myself with a thought experiment: would you trade it all for one top Frazetta oil? Answer: no. And that was that, I haven't looked back since. 

This is my newbie philosophy as well. It's not as if comic art takes up massive space and the opportunity cost associated with that. And, as Xatari said, there's plenty of really nice looking new art to choose from, at a fraction of the cost.

[vodou]

On 4/8/2022 at 2:45 PM, Timely said:

Do you want 1 Michael Jordan or 20 Joe Blows? Quality over quantity! All day, every day!

It's funny...the Joe Blows of 20 years ago (magically?) became the Jordans of today.

Be right and sit tight.

[Phill the Governor]

On 4/8/2022 at 2:30 PM, Xatari said:

I think it is a little different in the OA space as Jim personally collects art himself so he is actively buying pieces for his personal collection. 
 

I have read and watched all the pieces to which you referred above previously, but I do think there is a difference in this particular example. 

Jim's OA collection, with a highlight on his EC published art alone, is incredible.

I understand there is a difference in this particular example. But ultimately art is different only in what it is, not how it's sold or collected. While one of a kind, art still has a relative FMV against other like-examples. Having to pay more for the things you collect is a small price to pay (literally) against how much other money is being made, in various ways, by the market consistently rising.

 

[PGEAR12]

On 4/8/2022 at 1:30 PM, Xatari said:

I think it is a little different in the OA space as Jim personally collects art himself so he is actively buying pieces for his personal collection. 
 

I have read and watched all the pieces to which you referred above previously, but I do think there is a difference in this particular example. 

What is the difference? Jim buys coins and comics too.

What is the difference in this particular example?

I think it is a huge conflict of interest and I've heard he buys a lot of lots. He can do the exact same things that were seen in coins...

[Xatari]

The articles are insinuating Heritage is setting the market by buying inventory from video games.  My point is Jim the collector, not Heritage shareholder, is buying art for himself.  Those are different things.

[Aahz]

I think you may have people that were speculating in other fields (comics & sports cards) moving in to this field, but I really think that its just more fans with more money for the most part.  For example, on FB, someone speculated that the Bolland cover that went for $130K + was a speculator ... no way.  Even though it was my favorite piece that sold yesterday, if someone if new to the hobby, that is not the piece I would expect them to gravitate too.  Cap, Black Spider, Moonknight sure ... not Judge Dredd.  I know I am lucky enough to be able to afford more now than when I started collecting in the 90's, and after a break (marriage, kids, life) the pandemic allowed me to get excited about it again.  I don't think I'm alone.  The more of us there are, the more competition for the pieces.