Buying Question and Future Market Values 0

[99sscamaroma]

Wasnt sure where to put this but I have a local guy who has an ASM 129 (first appearance punisher) CGC 7.0 with off white to white pages, overall very clean book.

 

Asking $2,000.  Looking at Ebay seems relatively fair.  Im wondering though 9 months or so ago these grades for ASM 129 were commanding around $1000.  They spiked but it looks like everyone is saturating the market with copies so wondering if the time to buy is now or wait to see if the market corrects itself?

 

Any thoughts/opinions are very much welcomed!

[MattTheDuck]

No one knows the future, so this could be your last chance to get it at this low price.  I would also say you will always be able to find copies of this book available as there are a lot out there.  It's not "rare" so the upside could be limited by that fact, especially in mid-grades.  

[ExNihilo]

On 4/15/2022 at 11:24 AM, 99sscamaroma said:

Asking $2,000.  Looking at Ebay seems relatively fair.

I'll leave the meat of your question to other collectors (though, in general, the answer is that no one can forecast the market).  But if someone local is asking for eBay prices, I'd consider negotiating a bit.  If they sell on eBay, 10% goes to eBay, not to mention the risk of dealing with some unknown buyer who could just as easily try filing some PayPal claim against you.  If it's me, I'm going in with a full cash offer of about $1800 and go from there.  Maybe even just cut to the chase and say $1900 so both parties come out on top.  Seller/buyer both split the 10% eBay fee, everyone wins.

[thehumantorch]

On 4/15/2022 at 12:24 PM, 99sscamaroma said:

Wasnt sure where to put this but I have a local guy who has an ASM 129 (first appearance punisher) CGC 7.0 with off white to white pages, overall very clean book.

 

Asking $2,000.  Looking at Ebay seems relatively fair.  Im wondering though 9 months or so ago these grades for ASM 129 were commanding around $1000.  They spiked but it looks like everyone is saturating the market with copies so wondering if the time to buy is now or wait to see if the market corrects itself?

 

Any thoughts/opinions are very much welcomed!

Multiple copies of this book have sold recently for between $2000 and $2500 so the price is very reasonable.  We don't know where prices will be in the future but prices have consistently increased for quality books as long as I can remember - which is a long time - so I'd recommend that you buy it.

[shadroch]

While I can't see the future, I can read charts and follow trends.  Unless you believe that this is the all time high the market or hobby will ever achieve, buying blue chips is rarely a bad idea.  It's a good investment but not a great one.  Are you buying it to flip in a short time frame or looking to hold long term? 

 

[99sscamaroma]

Wow thanks for the responses everyone!  Yea most CGC 7.0's are listed between $2600-$2800 or best offer.  The ones that have sold have been a best offer so final price no clue but guessing in the $2300-$2500 range.  I did notice a couple ebay sellers had actual shops so asked them what a direct price would be and they offered between $2100-$2200 shipped.

So the local guy im going to meet him next week to view the book.  Its a fair price and id rather see the book as ive seen variances in CGC grades so want to make sure its a clean 7.0 nothing sticking out that would bother me.

As for the market I get it if we all knew the future then we'd all be rich but more along the lines of if we start to see a recession especially without all the stimulus money in the economy and interest rates rising do key comics like ASM 129 get dinged at all?  I dont mind waiting to buy for 6+ months just not sure if anyone has seen how Key comics trend vs economy.  As someone else said its not a super rare comic so that's the only thing that has me a little concerned.

This is a buy and hold for me I loved punisher growing up (still do) and I have a lot of other early punisher CGC graded books (ASM 134-135, Marvel Preview #2, Marvel Super Action #1, etc) and so this is obviously the pinnacle of Punisher comics so not trying to flip more just dont want to buy at a peak when the book was selling for around half less than a year ago.

Again just thinking it through and any additional input is greatly appreciated!

[Axe Elf]

On 4/15/2022 at 6:40 PM, 99sscamaroma said:

The ones that have sold have been a best offer so final price no clue but guessing in the $2300-$2500 range.

I recently ran across a site linked on here (I think?) that shows the actual price paid for those "Best Offer Accepted" sales on eeBay, but I don't remember what it was.  Maybe someone here can chime in with the link.

As far as whether or not the value will go up or down, no one can tell you.  If you're buying it as an investment, then the usual risks apply.  If you're buying it because you want it, and you like the looks of it for the price, then you've already won.

[ExNihilo]

On 4/15/2022 at 5:01 PM, Axe Elf said:

I recently ran across a site linked on here (I think?) that shows the actual price paid for those "Best Offer Accepted" sales on eeBay, but I don't remember what it was.  Maybe someone here can chime in with the link.

As far as whether or not the value will go up or down, no one can tell you.  If you're buying it as an investment, then the usual risks apply.  If you're buying it because you want it, and you like the looks of it for the price, then you've already won.

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[Ed Hanes]

I have noticed significant shrinkage in the market for Xmen and FF but ASM  has stabilized over the past few months (after record highs then a drop (market correction?)) but have started going back up...Romita Sr and Ditko covers seem to have increased notice, especially second appearances...I can't imagine ASM 129 doing anything but increasing in long term value from today's prices ...of all the ASM's it's in the top five of safest bets..IMHO...and 2000 seems like a great deal

Edited April 16, 2022 by Ed Hanes

[99sscamaroma]

On 4/16/2022 at 5:38 PM, Ed Hanes said:

I have noticed significant shrinkage in the market for Xmen and FF but ASM  has stabilized over the past few months (after record highs then a drop (market correction?)) but have started going back up...Romita Sr and Ditko covers seem to have increased notice, especially second appearances...I can't imagine ASM 129 doing anything but increasing in long term value from today's prices ...of all the ASM's it's in the top five of safest bets..IMHO...and 2000 seems like a great deal

Cool yea im meeting up this week with the guy going to do the once over, put the serial into the census here just to double check its good as I have it from the picture but want to make sure its the same book that he shows up with.  If its good too go ill buy.

[KCOComics]

On 4/17/2022 at 8:52 AM, 99sscamaroma said:

Cool yea im meeting up this week with the guy going to do the once over, put the serial into the census here just to double check its good as I have it from the picture but want to make sure its the same book that he shows up with.  If its good too go ill buy.

Good luck! 

It's a great book. Punisher was one of my favorites growing up and when I started collecting this was one of the first key books I went after

[comicginger1789]

ASM 129, while not rare, will always be desired. Appeals to Spidey fans, obviously to Punisher fans and is one of the Bronze Age grail books. I would put it in the top 3 for books from that era that are a safe long term bet. 

[theCapraAegagrus]

On 4/15/2022 at 2:24 PM, 99sscamaroma said:

Any thoughts/opinions are very much welcomed!

If you genuinely want the book and can afford to lose all of the financial value, then go for it.

If you cannot afford to gamble the money, then some more thought needs to go into the process.

[99sscamaroma]

On 4/19/2022 at 7:35 AM, theCapraAegagrus said:

If you genuinely want the book and can afford to lose all of the financial value, then go for it.

If you cannot afford to gamble the money, then some more thought needs to go into the process.

Yea im fine if it fluctuates over time.  Heck if it became worthless im not going to be crying over losing the money.  Its not for a fast flip ill hold this till im old and gray and then kids can do what they want with it.

Im more again just looking at the current market trends we had a precipitous spike in values of the market and ASM 129 went up pretty drastically and depending on the market in the next 6 months or so I dont mind waiting if it softens im just not as experienced with comics and Keys like ASM 129.  If it takes a 20% ding thats fine id just rather buy it a little lower in the coming months if thats how they trend or if keys like ASM 129 dont really go down id just buy now.

I know im asking a difficult question too so I appreciate all the input.  I have a PHD in economics and I love conversations like this to get people input so again appreciate all the responses!

[theCapraAegagrus]

On 4/19/2022 at 8:31 AM, 99sscamaroma said:

Yea im fine if it fluctuates over time.  Heck if it became worthless im not going to be crying over losing the money.  Its not for a fast flip ill hold this till im old and gray and then kids can do what they want with it.

Im more again just looking at the current market trends we had a precipitous spike in values of the market and ASM 129 went up pretty drastically and depending on the market in the next 6 months or so I dont mind waiting if it softens im just not as experienced with comics and Keys like ASM 129.  If it takes a 20% ding thats fine id just rather buy it a little lower in the coming months if thats how they trend or if keys like ASM 129 dont really go down id just buy now.

I know im asking a difficult question too so I appreciate all the input.  I have a PHD in economics and I love conversations like this to get people input so again appreciate all the responses!

At this point, I'm not sure that keys like this will ebb any time soon. From my analysis, it will keep creeping up until Punisher shows up in the new MCU, and at that point it will likely just stagnate.

[99sscamaroma]

On 4/19/2022 at 8:40 AM, theCapraAegagrus said:

At this point, I'm not sure that keys like this will ebb any time soon. From my analysis, it will keep creeping up until Punisher shows up in the new MCU, and at that point it will likely just stagnate.

Awesome!  Yea im really hoping that they do the Punisher justice and bring him back into the fold.  The Netflix series was fantastic IMO and they need to relaunch the character as the earlier movies were OK but really werent great.  My fear is that he will get transformed into a more public friendly version and not hold true to his character.