Any Bets on How Long the Strike Will Last? 2 2

[Dr. Balls]

I think the current strike is at 100 days?

2007/2008 strike lasted 100 days.

1988 strike lasted 154 days.

Guesses?

Edited August 30, 2023 by Dr. Balls

[media_junkie]

Tree Fiddy

[D84]

Considering the garbage that came out the last couple years, i no longer care.

[CAHokie]

On 8/30/2023 at 12:05 PM, Dr. Balls said:

I think the current strike is at 100 days?

2007/2008 strike lasted 100 days.

1988 strike lasted 154 days.

Guesses?

I think it will last until November. 

[TupennyConan]

On 8/30/2023 at 6:42 PM, D84 said:

Considering the garbage that came out the last couple years, i no longer care.

Sometimes a break from social engineering helps. It's exhausting when we're mere social constructs under perpetual reconstruction by strange folks out in Hollywood.  

[D84]

On 8/31/2023 at 8:48 AM, TupennyConan said:

Sometimes a break from social engineering helps. It's exhausting when we're mere social constructs under perpetual reconstruction by strange folks out in Hollywood.  

Agreed.

[PsylockeSmythe]

I don't see it ending until both sides realize they won't get what they want and both sides start to move to the middle.  

Psy

[Dr. Balls]

On 8/30/2023 at 4:42 PM, D84 said:

Considering the garbage that came out the last couple years, i no longer care.

That's pretty much my thoughts - but I didn't want to put that in my initial post. Marvel's three+ years of craptastic offerings have killed any excitement I had for shows coming out. I'll be waiting for X-Men, hoping things will be sorted out by then.

 

[D84]

I have massive movie collection and am fine with rewatching old favorites. 

[piper]

Christmas

[goblinjareth]

On 8/31/2023 at 10:25 AM, PsylockeSmythe said:

I don't see it ending until both sides realize they won't get what they want and both sides start to move to the middle.  

Psy

That's entirely on the AMPTP then, because they refuse to budge on a vast majority of basics. Full rejections on basically all proposals (or mess suggestions) until a week ago. Non-streaming companies are nearly on the verge breaking out of the AMPTP because streamers refuse to share the numbers, and they're getting screwed by independents like A21 fully agreeing to the WGA and SAG-AFTRA proposals, proving they are fully possible to follow. 

[rexinnih]

Well, opportunity to catch up on the plethora of movies and TV shows in various queues. Don't see any resolution on the horizon as this is a big one. 

[drotto]

On 8/31/2023 at 5:38 PM, goblinjareth said:

That's entirely on the AMPTP then, because they refuse to budge on a vast majority of basics. Full rejections on basically all proposals (or mess suggestions) until a week ago. Non-streaming companies are nearly on the verge breaking out of the AMPTP because streamers refuse to share the numbers, and they're getting screwed by independents like A21 fully agreeing to the WGA and SAG-AFTRA proposals, proving they are fully possible to follow. 

Not really, the leaked (I am fully aware AMPTP leaked it) offer was fairly generous.  That offered said they would offer $11k + per week for a staff writer, over 15K for a show runner per week, said they studios would not credit AI (writers would maintain the credit), they offered to share (confidentially) streaming number, and had much stronger guarantees for length of employment. They were giving the WGA like 75% of what they had asked for. It basically made sure a good writer would be making $100k plus per year, but did not ensure all writers would be employed. The primary sticking point seems to be WGA wanting strict numbers on how large writers rooms must be, and basically dictating how many people must be hired given the nature of a production. The AMPTP agreed a showrunner must hire at least 2 other writers, WGA wants in most cases writers rooms to be much larger. I am not sure it is wise creatively or even legal to force the studios to hire a certain number of writers based on a formula vs what the creators actually think they need. It will basically lead to no work jobs. The second main sticking point is AI and how it will be handled, I have no clue how to resolve that issue. 

 

I am not sure the studios can afford to employ that many writers at the salary's agreed too. I suspect most of these streaming shows, do not make money. That is the true reason they do not want to release the actual numbers.  It would prove that the vast bulk of these shows are worthless. It the studios are forced to reveal these shows do not make money, that will lead to a whole new problem for them on the investor side. While this perhaps gives the studios an unfair excuse to cut content, they fact is they are.  When this strike is resolved there will be far fewer shows being made, and the job situation is just going to get worse. Both side are going to end up losing here. 

Edited September 1, 2023 by drotto

[goblinjareth]

On 9/1/2023 at 8:50 AM, drotto said:

Not really, the leaked (I am fully aware AMPTP leaked it) offer was fairly generous.  That offered said they would offer $11k + per week for a staff writer, over 15K for a show runner per week, said they studios would not credit AI (writers would maintain the credit), they offered to share (confidentially) streaming number, and had much stronger guarantees for length of employment. They were giving the WGA like 75% of what they had asked for. It basically made sure a good writer would be making $100k plus per year, but did not ensure all writers would be employed. The primary sticking point seems to be WGA wanting strict numbers on how large writers rooms must be, and basically dictating how many people must be hired given the nature of a production. The AMPTP agreed a showrunner must hire at least 2 other writers, WGA wants in most cases writers rooms to be much larger. I am not sure it is wise creatively or even legal to force the studios to hire a certain number of writers based on a formula vs what the creators actually think they need. It will basically lead to no work jobs. The second main sticking point is AI and how it will be handled, I have no clue how to resolve that issue. 

 

I am not sure the studios can afford to employ that many writers at the salary's agreed too. I suspect most of these streaming shows, do not make money. That is the true reason they do not want to release the actual numbers.  It would prove that the vast bulk of these shows are worthless. It the studios are forced to reveal these shows do not make money, that will lead to a whole new problem for them on the investor side. While this perhaps gives the studios an unfair excuse to cut content, they fact is they are.  When this strike is resolved there will be far fewer shows being made, and the job situation is just going to get worse. Both side are going to end up losing here. 

The WGA is supposedly close to a deal, which basically hinged entirely on some of those points. The AI stuff was basically being stonewalled because the AMPTP refused to put anything against it down on paper. I suspect some of the fine text one those things will really determine whether or not it goes through.

We may not have all the financials, but they can certainly afford to pay that many writer. They used to actually. Their pay has not kept up with inflation at ALL, so in order to even catch up to their quality of pay 10 years ago, they needed a high percentage raise. And the WGA was not asking for all writers to be employed, which is a bit of a weird rumor being spread. They want writing room minimums that match common practices from 10 years ago. Having two writers on unobtainable deadlines enables them to pay garbage with no bonuses or raises and has resulted in a lot of the decline of TV writing we’ve seen. 

I’m a little biased, I have very little patience for the AMPTP after all of their blatant propaganda and union busting tactics. They’ve lost far more money in the strike already than it would cost for them to pay the WGA what they want, and they still found money to hire a special crisis PR firm. If your boss can’t get away with mess like paying you two months late, the studios shouldn’t either.

[CAHokie]

I would only agree to an AI scan if it could only be used in the actual production being scanned for and used to tweak a scene, and not to use however they want without permission. Example:  Use an AI scan to tweak an angle or motion would be ok, using an AI scan to have someone do a porn scene, absolutely not ok. Yes, that is an extreme example of course, but that is why there needs to be guidelines. 

[drotto]

On 9/1/2023 at 9:08 AM, goblinjareth said:

The WGA is supposedly close to a deal, which basically hinged entirely on some of those points. The AI stuff was basically being stonewalled because the AMPTP refused to put anything against it down on paper. I suspect some of the fine text one those things will really determine whether or not it goes through.

We may not have all the financials, but they can certainly afford to pay that many writer. They used to actually. Their pay has not kept up with inflation at ALL, so in order to even catch up to their quality of pay 10 years ago, they needed a high percentage raise. And the WGA was not asking for all writers to be employed, which is a bit of a weird rumor being spread. They want writing room minimums that match common practices from 10 years ago. Having two writers on unobtainable deadlines enables them to pay garbage with no bonuses or raises and has resulted in a lot of the decline of TV writing we’ve seen. 

I’m a little biased, I have very little patience for the AMPTP after all of their blatant propaganda and union busting tactics. They’ve lost far more money in the strike already than it would cost for them to pay the WGA what they want, and they still found money to hire a special crisis PR firm. If your boss can’t get away with mess like paying you two months late, the studios shouldn’t either.

Honestly, the one point I am 100% against the WGA on is dictating the size of the writers rooms. Showrunners should be allowed to hire how many and who they want, not be forced to meet some almost arbitrary number.  Many shows are far better with fewer people involved.  Look at Stranger Things or the Yellowstone shows.  Both have small writer's rooms and are basically tightly controlled by very few people.  They are better shoes for having few people involved with a tight focus and singular vision. Network comedies or dramas are fine with larger writer rooms. I understand why the AMPTP is against this, from a cost and creative standpoint. 

 

Also the 11k plus per week really seems more than fair to me. Especially when the average person in the US makes far less then that. If that writer works just 10 weeks per year they are making more then 90% of the people in the country. A good writer will have no problems making really good money at that rate. It is impossible to create a agreement or expect that the studios must keep the entire 11000 plus WGA employed in a manor that keeps them all financially secure.  Better writers will always get work, and the bad ones should not just be subsidized.

 

I would also disagree that they always employed that many writers, streaming has absolutely exploded the amount or scripted content. Now the streamers are being forced to cut content because it costs too much and they are losing money.  Really only Netflix is profitable right now.  Disney plus is over $14 billion in the hole since starying.

 

Also at this point the strike has not cost the studios money, it will, but not yet.  Zazlov said they were up $200 million last period, despite the strike.  Also streamers will adjust, and have already announced they will start importing more UK, Korean, and Japanese shows, etc.  These are not affected by the strikes, and dubbing work is actually permitted even with the strikes. Streamers will have content, and like it or not can hold on far longer then the writers.

 

Again, I think knowing the actual streaming numbers may be a poison pill for both sides.  The writers will find the residuals are actually accurate, the shows they wrote are worth nothing. The studios will have to answer to angry investors on spending money on projects that lose money, and that will effect stock price. 

Edited September 1, 2023 by drotto

[kimik]

I wonder if studios are looking at which positions can be replaced by AI. Heck, even actors/actresses can be replaced by CGI.

[WolverineX]

On 9/1/2023 at 4:33 PM, kimik said:

I wonder if studios are looking at which positions can be replaced by AI. Heck, even actors/actresses can be replaced by CGI.

Will we even need capitalism once everything is automated by AI?  

[goblinjareth]

On 9/1/2023 at 10:39 AM, drotto said:

Honestly, the one point I am 100% against the WGA on is dictating the size of the writers rooms. Showrunners should be allowed to hire how many and who they want, not be forced to meet some almost arbitrary number.  Many shows are far better with fewer people involved.  Look at Stranger Things or the Yellowstone shows.  Both have small writer's rooms and are basically tightly controlled by very few people.  They are better shoes for having few people involved with a tight focus and singular vision. Network comedies or dramas are fine with larger writer rooms. I understand why the AMPTP is against this, from a cost and creative standpoint. 

 

Also the 11k plus per week really seems more than fair to me. Especially when the average person in the US makes far less then that. If that writer works just 10 weeks per year they are making more then 90% of the people in the country. A good writer will have no problems making really good money at that rate. It is impossible to create a agreement or expect that the studios must keep the entire 11000 plus WGA employed in a manor that keeps them all financially secure.  Better writers will always get work, and the bad ones should not just be subsidized.

 

I would also disagree that they always employed that many writers, streaming has absolutely exploded the amount or scripted content. Now the streamers are being forced to cut content because it costs too much and they are losing money.  Really only Netflix is profitable right now.  Disney plus is over $14 billion in the hole since starying.

 

Also at this point the strike has not cost the studios money, it will, but not yet.  Zazlov said they were up $200 million last period, despite the strike.  Also streamers will adjust, and have already announced they will start importing more UK, Korean, and Japanese shows, etc.  These are not affected by the strikes, and dubbing work is actually permitted even with the strikes. Streamers will have content, and like it or not can hold on far longer then the writers.

 

Again, I think knowing the actual streaming numbers may be a poison pill for both sides.  The writers will find the residuals are actually accurate, the shows they wrote are worth nothing. The studios will have to answer to angry investors on spending money on projects that lose money, and that will effect stock price. 

Yeah, I don't think they're going to get the writers room minimum they're asking for. But I feel something needs to be set in that regard, whether it be a smaller minimum or timeline requirement, because the cuts they've made leave no room. I think Stranger Things has actually had weaker writing as they reduce the number of writers per season, but they started with 6 in season 1, which is one less than the WGA proposal would have required. Not all of them worked on every episode, but it seemed to help them keep their separate plotlines relevant and connected. 

You're right that the streamers are not profitable. Netflix was successful because it was unique, and now they're just reinventing cable. And that the streamers never hired a lot of writers. I was referring to network TV hiring more. Think of how many writers you see on a single season of Doctor Who to this day.

Zaslav is honestly pulling the wool over his investors' eyes. He says they saved $100m (which comes in part from not paying the striking workers) with very little breakdown on where the rest came from; meanwhile they also just lost at least $65m on The Flash alone due to the amount they spent on marketing. Max lost nearly 2 million subscribers in Q2. 

Ultimately, with the AMPTP finally back at the table after social perception has remained pretty in favor of the unions & AI has lost its shiny "new thing" hype, I think the WGA will get a deal in late October and SAG-AFTRA in late November.

[goblinjareth]

On 9/1/2023 at 9:35 AM, CAHokie said:

I would only agree to an AI scan if it could only be used in the actual production being scanned for and used to tweak a scene, and not to use however they want without permission. Example:  Use an AI scan to tweak an angle or motion would be ok, using an AI scan to have someone do a porn scene, absolutely not ok. Yes, that is an extreme example of course, but that is why there needs to be guidelines. 

The weird thing is... that's how it's been used for the last 7 years or so. A bunch of tech bros started referring to all computer learning as "AI" and presented it as this shiny new infallible thing, but many of these features have been integrated into creative programs for ages. Mocap, asset resizing, and more have always been used to assist the actual artists by providing a base to work from. All of these new "AI translation programs" are using the same computer learning model that Google Translate switched to in around 2013.