stamps... blazing a trail for comics?

[tth2]

If you want a life of guaranteed mediocrity, then move to some socialized Western European country where you'll never fall far but you'll probably never rise up very high either.

 

Err, nice generalization there, Tim. Would you mind telling me which Western European country(s) your talking about? Socialism is all but dead in Western Europe, where many of the world's wealthiest and poorest people live. Maybe your statement would've been vaguely accurate 35 years ago, but NOT NOW.

 

The opportunity to make vast amounts of wealth on the back of regular taxpayers has never been stronger in Europe's G8 countries, and as long as leaders like Blair mimic U.S. governments' attitude to the rich, then "guaranteed mediocrity for all" will be a thing of the past. Just thought I'd clear that up.

You`re right that good old fashioned western socialism has been significantly scaled back, particularly in the UK, but the tendencies are still strong on the continent. Not to turn this into a political discussion, Andy, but with the exception of places like England and Ireland, economic mobility is still significantly restricted in the name of protecting the general good. Go to the City (or these days, I guess it`s Canary Wharf) and see how many people there are from Germany, France and Italy. Why? Because many people from those countries with an ounce of gumption have moved to England or the US in search of opportunity. My company is grappling with the acquisition of a large French health and beauty retailer that we completed this past year and we just shake our heads at the incredibly restrictive pro-employee laws and general levels of over-regulation that make growth and efficiency so difficult.

[joe_collector]

so let`s be sure to meet back here in 2016 and see where we are, okay?

 

Just for the record, you *actually* believe that CGC comic book prices will still be rising in value come 2016?

 

If so, you really need to do some research on how the influx of graded collectibles affects long-term values.

 

Lots of smart people here are riding the bubble and making money, but also realize it will end, and you're the first person I've heard state that CGC values will continue to skyrocket into 2016.

[joe_collector]

As usual, I had better shut up about all this, as I've made a pledge for 2006 to sell off monumental stacks of raw dupes and CGC no-want-no-more books, and this kind of thread commentary is just bad for business.

 

I need to just ride the wave like everyone else, and blow off my excess holdings of can't-miss "investment collectibles".

[tth2]

you're the first person I've heard state that CGC values will continue to skyrocket into 2016.

Please identify where in my post I use the word "skyrocket" or even make any predictions about the rate of growth?

[delekkerste]

It was no more clear in 1966, or 1976, or 1986, or 1996 that you wouldn`t lose your shirt by purchasing comics than it is today. There were people saying at all of those points that then-current price levels were crazy, and only in hindsight is it so clear that buying comics was such a no-brainer at those points in time.

 

First, I wasn't collecting in 1966 or 1976, but I was in 1986 and 1996 and don't recall people saying that the then-current price levels were crazy. On the contrary, I recall predictions that prices would keep soaring higher and higher, at least for the good stuff (e.g., the Bronze Marvel Big 3 would go to $500-$1,000). I very much doubt that people in 1966 were warning that you could lose your shirt paying $15 (or whatever) for an ASM #1 or $1-$5 for various other back issues, because $15 even back then was not a huge sum of money. If you lost it all, nobody, including yourself, would have even cared. Now, paying $150,000 for a CGC 9.6 copy of ASM #1 today? That's something else altogether.

 

Second, this kind of analysis where you look only at returns over specific periods without concern to the underlying drivers (i.e., hobby/cultural, demographic, economic/income trends) is worthless. I'm talking about the "Comics went up in the 1960s, the 1970s, the 1980s, the 1990s, etc. so they will continue to do so in the future" kinds of argument. Comics used to be dirt cheap. Now they are not. Various time periods cannot be wrapped in the same blanket.

 

How long would you have had to work in 1966 to afford an ASM #1? A week or two at most? Today, the average American would have to work over 3 years (pre-tax) to afford a 9.6 copy, and maybe 4 or 5 years on an after-tax basis. Even for lesser condition copies, we're talking serious money - weeks, months and years of labor equivalent. Let's not kid ourselves - the stakes are much higher these days because comic prices went parabolic while income growth chugged along at a slow pace (and, these days, we are talking about flat-to-negative real income growth).

 

Just as I believe projecting past trends in this hobby indefinitely into the future is utter folly given the dramatic underlying changes in values (from cheap to insane - at least for the good stuff; the bad stuff continues to be a money-losing proposition with the average new book falling in resale value by 2/3rds a few months after printing), I don't believe you can extrapolate the collecting habits of the average American indefinitely into the future either. Comic sales have rebounded the last 5 or 6 years, but the amount of fresh blood entering the hobby has been weak. Income trends are not favorable and demographic trends decidedly not (for every aging collector intending to pass their collection down to their kids, there will be 10 whose kids have no interest in carrying on the collecting tradition and will dump supply onto the market). Being a macro investor, I can almost guarantee you that we are going to be facing very difficult times at some point in the not-too-distant future - demographic trends alone will bring a debt crisis to the fore within 10-15 years if it doesn't happen by itself already, and the energy crisis is only in its infancy.

 

Unlike stamps, which benefited from a huge wealth effect despite negative hobby fundamentals, comic values will suffer from hard times and negative hobby fundamentals. No sane person will want to have their wealth in comics as a store of value at that time. Laugh now, mock me as a crashist or doom & gloomer, but when we're looking back a decade from now, just acknowledge that I was right and that it was foreseeable in advance and not dumb luck. In Greek mythology, Cassandra was right...her curse was that nobody believed her warnings.

[Samurai-Bill]

Tim . I aways think you are the voice of sanity on the boards , but I think there is one thing missing in your examples .

 

The age demographic !!

 

Comic collectors are all getting old , I see no young kids at the cons I go to .

 

I remember going to the local comic marts in Liverpool ( UK ) and next door would be the stamp fair and the line for the comic mart would be down the stairs but the stamp fair would have a hand full of people .

 

The stamp fair is no more , killed due to lack of interest .

 

I still go to the same comic mart in Liverpool , and we are going the same way as the stamp collectors a handfull of people no longer a line down the stairs .

[joe_collector]

Please identify where in my post I use the word "skyrocket" or even make any predictions about the rate of growth?

 

So your comment:

 

"So let`s be sure to meet back here in 2016 and see where we are, okay?"

 

Should be taken that you agree with me and feel that comics will be stagnant or lower-priced in 2016? Funny, I took it as a "geek slam" that price increases would still be pumping along in 2016.

 

Thanks for clearing that up - add tth2 to the JC Camp!!

[AussieRuss]

Please identify where in my post I use the word "skyrocket" or even make any predictions about the rate of growth?

 

So your comment:

 

"So let`s be sure to meet back here in 2016 and see where we are, okay?"

 

Should be taken that you agree with me and feel that comics will be stagnant or lower-priced in 2016? Funny, I took it as a "geek slam" that price increases would still be pumping along in 2016.

 

Thanks for clearing that up - add tth2 to the JC Camp!!

 

Joe,

 

You know that is not what Tim is saying. You seem to have great trouble having a serious debate with a lot of people on these boards.

 

Credit where its due though, you are great at manipulating peoples words around to cover for your lack of continuing a debate down a given path.

 

 

So then. If people are talking about investing in comics & you think that its time to run at the mention of comics and investment in the same sentence. Do you see a downturn in average CGC prices during 2006 or will prices be on the up trend.

 

Simple question for you two words will answer it. Bull Market or Bear Market.

 

Regards,

Russ...

[the blob]

Haven't stamps been dead for a long time? (I understand this is a relative term and no doubt the true rarities have done fine.) Heck, I see stamps selling on ebay bought as sheets, presumably in the hope they'd be collectible, selling for less than face value.

[Norrin_Radd]

Haven't stamps been dead for a long time?

 

No, I used some just this week.

 

 

[tth2]

It was no more clear in 1966, or 1976, or 1986, or 1996 that you wouldn`t lose your shirt by purchasing comics than it is today. There were people saying at all of those points that then-current price levels were crazy, and only in hindsight is it so clear that buying comics was such a no-brainer at those points in time.

 

First, I wasn't collecting in 1966 or 1976, but I was in 1986 and 1996 and don't recall people saying that the then-current price levels were crazy. On the contrary, I recall predictions that prices would keep soaring higher and higher, at least for the good stuff (e.g., the Bronze Marvel Big 3 would go to $500-$1,000).

That`s very selective memory, Gene. I can find people today who are predicting that prices will keep soaring higher and higher too. And I can definitely remember people in 1986 and 1996 who thought prices were out of hand. As already mentioned by me, the purchases of the WM AF 15 and the Church Action 1 had people howling. Don`t take my word for it, ask some of the long-time collectors and dealers. If nothing else, just look back to the article posted about the guy paying over $1000 for an Action #1 in the early 1970s, and then ask Bob Beerbohm what people thought about that at the time. And ask yourself this, if future gains were such a no-brainer, then why wasn`t everyone jumping all over the Slobodians and Massachusetts books that Marnin Rosenberg was offering in the mid-90s?

 

I very much doubt that people in 1966 were warning that you could lose your shirt paying $15 (or whatever) for an ASM #1 or $1-$5 for various other back issues, because $15 even back then was not a huge sum of money. If you lost it all, nobody, including yourself, would have even cared. Now, paying $150,000 for a CGC 9.6 copy of ASM #1 today? That's something else altogether.

How much something cost in terms of overall spending power is not a way to gauge the psychology in play at the time of the purchase. You have to look at how much the items cost in comparison to how much they had cost just a bit earlier, and what the precedents were for spending that kind of money on such an item. It would have been unfathomable in 1966 for a comic to be worth a year`s salary, but in 2006 it is a very real phenomenon, and therefore the anxiety level being experienced by someone shelling out $15 for a comic, even though it would have been well less than a month`s salary, would be significantly higher than you make it out to be. How do I know this? Because I went through major trauma in the 1980s and 1990s making purchasing decisions that in retrospect were no-brainers, even though none were books capable of putting me in the poor house. I would argue that the Dentist`s paying $20K for the Action #1 in the early 1980s was a bigger leap of faith than spending $1 million on it today.

 

Second, this kind of analysis where you look only at returns over specific periods without concern to the underlying drivers (i.e., hobby/cultural, demographic, economic/income trends) is worthless. I'm talking about the "Comics went up in the 1960s, the 1970s, the 1980s, the 1990s, etc. so they will continue to do so in the future" kinds of argument. Comics used to be dirt cheap. Now they are not. Various time periods cannot be wrapped in the same blanket.

Again, my point is that comics from those eras only seem dirt cheap to you today because in fact they have risen in price so much. If they had crashed permanently in the 1990s, you would be writing today that you can`t believe that those insufficiently_thoughtful_persons used to spend thousands of dollars on those HG comics advertised by Marnin in the CBG, and that no valuation method could have ever supported those ridiculous valuations. I am not predicting that comics will continue to rise in price. I`m only making the simple observation that 10 years from now, today will be 10 years ago, and would you rather be looking back and thinking about the decisive actions you took or thinking "woulda shoulda coulda"?

[tth2]

Tim . I aways think you are the voice of sanity on the boards , but I think there is one thing missing in your examples .

 

The age demographic !!

 

Comic collectors are all getting old , I see no young kids at the cons I go to .

 

I remember going to the local comic marts in Liverpool ( UK ) and next door would be the stamp fair and the line for the comic mart would be down the stairs but the stamp fair would have a hand full of people .

 

The stamp fair is no more , killed due to lack of interest .

 

I still go to the same comic mart in Liverpool , and we are going the same way as the stamp collectors a handfull of people no longer a line down the stairs .

Very true, and a valid concern. I guess the issue is whether comics are capable of transcending demographics. Do movie poster collectors still pay big prices for posters from movies from the early 20th century, even though the vast majority of people who watched those movies are dead now? Do baseball card collectors continue to pay big prices for cards of Hall of Fame players from 1900-1930, even though the vast majority of people who idolized them are dead now? I`m not even talking about players like Babe Ruth or Lou Gehrig who are true American icons, but "run-of-the-mill" Hall of Famers like Mel Ott, Tris Speaker, Jimmy Foxx and Hank Greenberg who aren`t household names anymore?

[tth2]

Please identify where in my post I use the word "skyrocket" or even make any predictions about the rate of growth?

 

So your comment:

 

"So let`s be sure to meet back here in 2016 and see where we are, okay?"

 

Should be taken that you agree with me and feel that comics will be stagnant or lower-priced in 2016? Funny, I took it as a "geek slam" that price increases would still be pumping along in 2016.

 

Thanks for clearing that up - add tth2 to the JC Camp!!

JC, you know, I was going to offer to make a BET with you on whether comic prices would be higher in 2016 compared to today, and then I remembered who I was talking to!

[adamstrange]

People didn't buy GA mile highs at the second Sotheby's auction -- take a look, there are some fabulous runs there. The reserve? Double guide

 

Tim, I also agonized over a many a decision and avoided going after certain books (mostly Marvels) because they were "way over guide". And don't get me started about how pieces of OA I didn't get because $1500 is just WAY too much to pay for a Neal Adams splash.

 

I'm not going to make any predictions on where prices will be 10 years from now and anyone buying should do their homework and decide if they like owning comics or if they'd rather collect Star Wars figures or GI Joes or beachfront property or Growth Stocks.

[AussieRuss]

Tim . I aways think you are the voice of sanity on the boards , but I think there is one thing missing in your examples .

 

The age demographic !!

 

Comic collectors are all getting old , I see no young kids at the cons I go to .

 

I remember going to the local comic marts in Liverpool ( UK ) and next door would be the stamp fair and the line for the comic mart would be down the stairs but the stamp fair would have a hand full of people .

 

The stamp fair is no more , killed due to lack of interest .

 

I still go to the same comic mart in Liverpool , and we are going the same way as the stamp collectors a handfull of people no longer a line down the stairs .

 

Hello Bill.

 

I hope you don't mind me sharing my view on this.

 

I go to a comic swap meet / fair in Melbourne a few times a year & I hear the old timers saying how things are slowing down & the fairs will one day be no more. I have seen a few photo's of swap meets 10-20 years ago & they were huge compared with today.

 

However if you take the time to speak with a few of the older stall owners that are computer savy, they will also say that swap meets are slowing but in the next breath they go on to say that internet sales are counting for more volume & dollars in sales than was ever made during any swap meet/ fair.

 

I must admit to being one of those internet buyers.

 

My total dollar spend at a the fairs would be <$1000

My internet spend would be many, many multiples of this. .

 

While I like going to swap meets I don't think that they are a good representation of how healthy the comic collecting market is.

 

The game is the same but the rules have changed.

 

Regards,

 

Russ...

[BlackHeartedDwarf-migratio]

I need to just ride the wave like everyone else, and blow off my excess holdings of can't-miss "investment collectibles".

YEAH!!!

 

Let's fleece the suckers!

[14 of spades]

10 years from now, today will be 10 years ago, and would you rather be looking back and thinking about the decisive actions you took or thinking "woulda shoulda coulda"?

 

please be specific about what "decisive actions" you are talking about. what are you suggesting we do? are you specifically suggesting that we buy now?

 

given the run-up on prices the last 5-6-7 years, wouldn't you agree that it would have been more prudent to buy say, 7-8-9 years ago?

 

even then, i would've "only" made serious money had i purchased HG SA and BA. had i collected moderns at less than 9.9, or Valiants, i would've taken a bath no matter when i purchased them.

[Aman619]

buy great comics at great prices confidently. Be as smart as you can while securing copies that will still be in demand in 2016.

[tth2]

10 years from now, today will be 10 years ago, and would you rather be looking back and thinking about the decisive actions you took or thinking "woulda shoulda coulda"?

 

please be specific about what "decisive actions" you are talking about. what are you suggesting we do? are you specifically suggesting that we buy now?

If it`s something you really desire, yes. Too many people stew over a few dollars. In the grand scheme of things, a few dollars probably won`t make much difference at the end of the day. The price will either rise, and you`ll be glad you made the purchase, or the price will fall, in which case the fact that you lost only 40% compared to 50% will be inconsequential. These are only comics and people are only spending their discretionary income anyways, right?

 

given the run-up on prices the last 5-6-7 years, wouldn't you agree that it would have been more prudent to buy say, 7-8-9 years ago?

I`m not psychic, and I don`t think anyone else here is either. No one had any idea 9 years ago that there would be a big run up starting 4 years later. The point is if you had just sat on your hands 9 years ago, paralyzed by the outrageous prices dealers were demanding back then, you would`ve missed the boat.

 

I just buy what I like, and try to be discriminating as to what I like, and then I let the chips fall where they may.

 

[14 of spades]

If it`s something you really desire, yes. Too many people stew over a few dollars. In the grand scheme of things, a few dollars probably won`t make much difference at the end of the day.

 

i think this is fair. if it's what u want, then go ahead and buy it. if u buy at the peak, and are aware of the risk of losing a lot of the initial capital u put into the purchase, then that is fine. (as an aside, however, it is said that some people seem to spending more than their discretionary income. equally bad and related, is that some people seem to be expecting big gains on their "investments')

 

I just buy what I like, and try to be discriminating as to what I like, and then I let the chips fall where they may.

 

i think the big disagreement that has occurred in this thread between the JCs et. al and those such as yourself, is that JC is saying don't invest your money in comics because you will take a bath. your emphasis, however, is buy what u like - and a quasi "who cares about the cost - hey it MAY even still go up".

 

the two scenarios aren't mutually exclusive.