I Was Talking to a Sports Card Guy Over the Holidays

[joe_collector]

One of my relatives is a hardcore sports card collector, and he's forgotten more about the market than I ever knew. He'd heard about the CGC fad and naturally we got to talking.... and drinking... and talking.

 

To make a long story short, the gist of what he said really scared me (yeah I know, creepy), and comes down to a few basic points, using his own projections based on the graded spotscard trends:

 

1) Overall CGC prices will drop, and demand will slowly sag as the market continues to see more and more graded copies.

 

2) Very limited quantities of older, ultra-high grade material will continue to appreciate as will select key issues in the absolute "1 of 1 copy" highest grade (bah, what does he know? ).

 

3) At a certain point in time, high-grade raw comics will become very tough to get rid of, and basically only sell for a shrinking percentage of graded value. Bulk raw sales will become a way of life for most comics.

 

4) Low and mid-grade raw comics will tank almost entirely and supply will overwhelm any demand that's left. (I know many like Donut disagree, but that IS what happened in coins and cards after graded prices melted down ).

 

5) Scandals will rock the business and lead to many scared investors selling off. (He was VERY interested in what's been going on lately, and just knowingly rolled his eyes at the "missed resto" BS).

 

6) 99.9999999999999999% of Modern slabs will become totally worthless.

 

7) With only a single grading company, that factor has essentially propped the market up artifically so far, as compared to the multiple card and coin graders. (I think he's absolutely correct here)

 

8) There will be a reduction in new comics for sale, and at a certain point, a sharp increase in retail prices (yeah, tell us something we didn't know ).

 

I personally disagree with a few of these projections/predictions, but I'm presenting them for some debate. After all, from my point of view, sportscards are the closest to comics both in form, point of sale, and orignal owner demographics.

 

But no one really knows the future. Some may come true, or all, or none, but one thing is for sure, this guy *knows* graded sportscards and is still making money buying and selling them. So if the graded comic market follows along, expect these to be a laundry list of what's to come.

[Timulty]

Well, I am kinda in agreement about the premium slabbed comics seem to have over their raw brethren. I can see a 50% premium but in some instances it is 400%. And that is just incredibly wrong and don't think the market can sustain that in the long run.

[FlyingDonut]

My thoughts

 

1) Overall CGC prices will drop, and demand will slowly sag as the market continues to see more and more graded copies.

 

Sounds reasonable. Simple supply and demand.

 

2) Very limited quantities of older, ultra-high grade material will continue to appreciate as will select key issues in the absolute "1 of 1 copy" highest grade (bah, what does he know? ).

 

Probably correct. The "highest grade" is going to move upwards, given continual increases in submissions.

 

3) At a certain point in time, high-grade raw comics will become very tough to get rid of, and basically only sell for a shrinking percentage of graded value. Bulk raw sales will become a way of life for most comics.

 

Depends on the time period.

 

4) Low and mid-grade raw comics will tank almost entirely and supply will overwhelm any demand that's left. (I know many like Donut disagree, but that IS what happened in coins and cards after graded prices melted down ).

 

That's what happened because there's no inside to a card or a coin. At a certain level, people want to read the damned book. Overstreet prices are too high, and have been for years.

 

5) Scandals will rock the business and lead to many scared investors selling off. (He was VERY interested in what's been going on lately, and just knowingly rolled his eyes at the "missed resto" BS).

 

What else is new.

 

6) 99.9999999999999999% of Modern slabs will become totally worthless.

 

Define "modern" - if you're talking since 2000, probably accurate.

 

7) With only a single grading company, that factor has essentially propped the market up artifically so far, as compared to the multiple card and coin graders. (I think he's absolutely correct here)

 

Probably correct.

 

8) There will be a reduction in new comics for sale, and at a certain point, a sharp increase in retail prices (yeah, tell us something we didn't know ).

 

A reduction in new comics won't be because of slabbing.

[joe_collector]

Good point on the "comics have insides" comment, and I believe his opinion on Modern is "the last 10 years or so"..

 

I also agree that sportscard sales were a bit more linked with grading submissions, but I do think there is some correlation, especially with the "chase cards" vs. "manufactured variants" example.

[ninanina]

 

But no one really knows the future.

 

In all your years of negativity towards the market I don't believe you've ever admitted this. I am so impressed.

[Hobgoblin]

I agree with all of Donut's comments. Most of what this card-dude said sounds like common sense knowledge to me.

 

Aren't 99.99999999% of modern slabs (withing 10 years) already worthless?

[joe_collector]

Aren't 99.99999999% of modern slabs (withing 10 years) already worthless?

 

Probably, just don't tell Darth that.

[october]

especially with the "chase cards" vs. "manufactured variants" example.

 

Very, very true, which is why I cringe every single time a new variant comes out. I remember sports cards were absolutely INUNDATED with manufactured rarities, promo and chase cards, and hologramed nonsense in the early 90s. Seriously, that hobby made comic variants of the same time look sensible. It drove away the lion's share of collectors who could no longer keep up with the torrent of new sets and didn't want to pay insane premiums for cards that came out the day before. My dad still has several high grade raw early 60s baseball and football sets which, somewhat surprisingly, have about the same value now as when he left the hobby around 92. Obviously newer cards aren't worth , but the nice vintage stuff kept a good deal of its value. That's encouraging.

[Timulty]

especially with the "chase cards" vs. "manufactured variants" example.

 

Very, very true, which is why I cringe every single time a new variant comes out. I remember sports cards were absolutely INUNDATED with manufactured rarities, promo and chase cards, and hologramed nonsense in the early 90s. Seriously, that hobby made comic variants of the same time look sensible. It drove away the lion's share of collectors who could no longer keep up with the torrent of new sets and didn't want to pay insane premiums for cards that came out the day before. My dad still has several high grade raw early 60s baseball and football sets which, somewhat surprisingly, have about the same value now as when he left the hobby around 92. Obviously newer cards aren't worth , but the nice vintage stuff kept a good deal of its value. That's encouraging.

 

Actually, I figured that out about 92. I figured out that buying box after box just to get the rare/ultra rare card was just not worth it.

[joe_collector]

Do you know what my entire 1990's sportscard purchases amounted to?

 

4 boxes of the first OPC Premier Hockey edition.. I thought the cards looked great, all the rookies were there, so I bought a box at my LCS and then later bought 3 more at a discount store. But I foolishly kept all the cards (even after they exploded), never sold or graded any, and now I have stacks of each player...

 

So instead of selling graded Jagr rookies for hundreds of dollars each, I can now get $20 for my stack of raw Mint ones.

 

Still, as an original and only purchase, it was quite astute.

[Timulty]

It seemed like Hockey was a good buy. I had a couple Gretzky and Balfour cards that I sold years later. I pretty much just picked up some packs here and there when I got a urge and there they were. I really hated baseball. I collected mostly Football and Basketball.

[joe_collector]

I'm a Canuck so hockey is my top choice, but I really never liked new cards in the least. I love some of the older issues, but never got into the new ones, outside that "what the heck" buy of the Premiers. Something about those cards just looked right...

 

I still remember some of my "gold rush" friends grabbing boxes of Score and Pro Set hockey while I perused the comic back issue bins. I even told them to cool it, but you can imagine their responses.

 

I still remember hitting the LCS around that time, and seeing that crepe stacked ceiling high. That should have been warning enough to stay away.

[Timulty]

The old cards were the best. The 90's really didn't help the look of the cards. I can relate about seeing tons of cards in cases. Outrageous prices. And not all that great a cards either.

[eddly]

Do you know what my entire 1990's sportscard purchases amounted to?

 

4 boxes of the first OPC Premier Hockey edition.. I thought the cards looked great, all the rookies were there, so I bought a box at my LCS and then later bought 3 more at a discount store. But I foolishly kept all the cards (even after they exploded), never sold or graded any, and now I have stacks of each player...

 

So instead of selling graded Jagr rookies for hundreds of dollars each, I can now get $20 for my stack of raw Mint ones.

 

Still, as an original and only purchase, it was quite astute.

 

you can still get some half decent money for your jagr rookies.

[joe_collector]

you can still get some half decent money for your jagr rookies.

 

Yeah, he's leading the league in scoring again, isn't he?

 

I guess there's no chance of selling off my Federov rookies for big bucks too?

[joe_collector]

I can relate about seeing tons of cards in cases. Outrageous prices. And not all that great a cards either.

 

That's what was so funny about the OPC Premier cards, I think they were under $20 a box in the LCS and around $14 in the Giant Tiger (??) I saw them in the window at. The last 3 boxes were nabbed right before the big price spike and I think I bought them just because they were so freaking cheap.

[esquirecomics]

Obviously newer cards aren't worth , but the nice vintage stuff kept a good deal of its value. That's encouraging.

 

Oct, is this new legal jargon they teach you youngsters in law school since my days?

[october]

Obviously newer cards aren't worth , but the nice vintage stuff kept a good deal of its value. That's encouraging.

 

Oct, is this new legal jargon they teach you youngsters in law school since my days?

 

We learned it in trial ad.

[adamstrange]

Probably correct. The "highest grade" is going to move upwards, given continual increases in submissions.

 

I found a small typo that you might want to correct. It should read "increases in re-submissions".

[whomerjay]

I agree with FD and October, and most of what your relative believes, having lived through that period buying and selling a lot of cards. The big difference between cards then and comics now is that the 80's-90's cards market was >90% driven by absurd speculation, and maintained by attempts to keep card values spiralling upwards for as long as the buying public could be hoodwinked. If some cards lost their steam, they would be replaced by the new hot item, which becaming increasingly something contrived (e.g., chase cards). Ultimately the average joe who was into cards because of the delusion of making money got wise and left, tons of product tanked leaving only old cards as valuable to the people who where in the hobby before all the craziness in the hobby.

 

Personally, I think the comics market today has more fundamental underpinnings because a decent % of those involved actually like comics and wouldn't mind if large groups of books tanked. The inherent appeal of comics is greater than that of cards- you can read them, you don't need to know a sport and its history, they tend to have a greater appeal as a piece of art, if your favorite artist goes on strike it's not such a big deal, and your favorite character is less likely to become an A hole on the the order of say, Jose Canseco. True, the loss of the speculation/investment attraction would cause maybe 50% of those involved now to leave. But people into comics now who would collect regardless of the "market" will sustain the business of comics to a much greater level than that of the current card market. IMO I think the # of buyers will always be there to sustain a healthy (but realistic, not inflated like right now) SA and GA market. Almost anything 1990 on, there will never be a demand that comes any where near the supply, with a handful of books excepted.