I Was Talking to a Sports Card Guy Over the Holidays

[MK Ultra]

Other than the one's presented above, here's a paraphrased Bill Maherism

 

I wouldn't be quoting anything that pasty-faced shrimp says about being "cool". He's the biggest geek on TV.

 

 

I suspect comic book geeks are much more wealthy and much more cool, right?

[joe_collector]

JC, thnx for posting your thoughts.. oops.. I meant your "relative's" thoughts about where the CGC market is headed. Did you take notes or what? I am impressed you were able to retain so much info whils't drinking.

 

You know, I could really do without this kind of stupidity. I come from a long line of collector-hoarders, and conversations tend to go in that direction from time to time. I just thought some of you might be interested in seeing what a hardcore sportscard collector thought of where the CGC market might go.

 

I guess I was wrong, and I will be sure to remember this fact in the future.

[sckao]

 

Interesting Post. Seems entirely reasonable.

[Aman619]

heres a related comment. I saw this ebay auction. Its for a complete set of CRISIS all in 9.8 with white pages. So Im thinking, gee, I know my copies cannot even be 9.4s or 9.6s since I read them. And CRISIS is turning out to be a pretty big series in DC history. Maybe It wouldnt be too bad to lock in a beautiful HG run. The bidding is up to $421 or so. $35 bucks a book. Prett scary but long term, maybe huh?

 

well, the seller is so impressed with his run that he lists the CGC census for each issue. And that when I wake up. Many of the CRISIS issues already have 9.9s. And, of the HGCs in 9.8, they are all "one of 20-plus" copies!. sigh.

 

Prices just cannot be maintained in the face of such supply, with the perception that there are plenty more out there too. But I think MY reaction to this auction gives a bit of insight into the CGC mania of the past few years that may be wearing off. Our senses tell us that certain grades for certain books just MUST be fairly scarce and hence a good deal, until cold reality splashes in our faces.

 

so, lets keep it real, people!

[sterlingcomics]

JC,

 

Great news. Now tell the rest of the BA horror collectors out there so I can finish my collection at a fraction of current prices.

 

Yeah october, it's the old dog chasing tail. I want values high for issues I have, values low for issues I don't. In reality I really want values low so I can be more cost effective...at the same time I want others to share an interest in what I collect...which increases cost.

[ninanina]

JC, thnx for posting your thoughts.. oops.. I meant your "relative's" thoughts about where the CGC market is headed. Did you take notes or what? I am impressed you were able to retain so much info whils't drinking.

 

You know, I could really do without this kind of stupidity. I come from a long line of collector-hoarders, and conversations tend to go in that direction from time to time. I just thought some of you might be interested in seeing what a hardcore sportscard collector thought of where the CGC market might go.

 

I guess I was wrong, and I will be sure to remember this fact in the future.

 

Your right...some of us are interested.

[Dyan]

JC,

 

Great news. Now tell the rest of the BA horror collectors out there so I can finish my collection at a fraction of current prices.

 

I was thinking the same thing. So along with the BA horror collectors............ will everyone please suddenly lose interest in x-men? It'd help my pocketbook in HUGE ways.

[action1kid]

Dont let that effect you.That was one mans opinion and only one man.He does not represent the rest of us.Im interested in your opinion. Please,it is welcome and I want to hear it.

[sterlingcomics]

JC,

 

Great news. Now tell the rest of the BA horror collectors out there so I can finish my collection at a fraction of current prices.

 

I was thinking the same thing. So along with the BA horror collectors............ will everyone please suddenly lose interest in x-men? It'd help my pocketbook in HUGE ways.

 

 

The workaround of course is to buy raw...but risks go up accordingly.

[Ze-man]

JC, thnx for posting your thoughts.. oops.. I meant your "relative's" thoughts about where the CGC market is headed. Did you take notes or what? I am impressed you were able to retain so much info whils't drinking.

 

You know, I could really do without this kind of stupidity. I come from a long line of collector-hoarders, and conversations tend to go in that direction from time to time. I just thought some of you might be interested in seeing what a hardcore sportscard collector thought of where the CGC market might go.

 

I guess I was wrong, and I will be sure to remember this fact in the future.

 

 

Of all times..why get mad at me now versus any other time?... And all this time I thought you had the thickest of skins. I did not say what ya posted was not a good read. Just that it seemed a little self serving. Ya at least gotta admit that, right?.

"If we cannot poke fun at ourselves..etc.."

 

Dont forsake the rest of the crew because of my poor behaviour, I speak for myself, not them. Besides.. I still wanna hear more about the Stamp collectors ya grew up with.

 

 

 

Ze-

[Aman619]

how about the hummel collectors?

[kidcolt]

I also collect sport cards and that market have suffered through this problem. Most of his ideas have happened in the sports card market. Of course as time goes by more comics/cards will be graded and there will be more high grades in all titles available. The new comic market is always up and down. Especially since the mid 90's it has been a battle and strugle for comic companies and LCS. It seems less kids are reading comics...or reading anything for that matter. At the 2 LCS where I buy the cliental is 25+ with most 30+. There are a few kids who buy but not many. Kids are not really that interested in comics, most would rather watch the FF then sit and read about it. Also comics are expensive for kids. Almost every new issue cost near $5 each. However I do agree that certain CGC graded books will drop the true rare golden age high grade stuff should remain constant or rise over time.

One of my relatives is a hardcore sports card collector, and he's forgotten more about the market than I ever knew. He'd heard about the CGC fad and naturally we got to talking.... and drinking... and talking.

 

To make a long story short, the gist of what he said really scared me (yeah I know, creepy), and comes down to a few basic points, using his own projections based on the graded spotscard trends:

 

1) Overall CGC prices will drop, and demand will slowly sag as the market continues to see more and more graded copies.

 

2) Very limited quantities of older, ultra-high grade material will continue to appreciate as will select key issues in the absolute "1 of 1 copy" highest grade (bah, what does he know? ).

 

3) At a certain point in time, high-grade raw comics will become very tough to get rid of, and basically only sell for a shrinking percentage of graded value. Bulk raw sales will become a way of life for most comics.

 

4) Low and mid-grade raw comics will tank almost entirely and supply will overwhelm any demand that's left. (I know many like Donut disagree, but that IS what happened in coins and cards after graded prices melted down ).

 

5) Scandals will rock the business and lead to many scared investors selling off. (He was VERY interested in what's been going on lately, and just knowingly rolled his eyes at the "missed resto" BS).

 

6) 99.9999999999999999% of Modern slabs will become totally worthless.

 

7) With only a single grading company, that factor has essentially propped the market up artifically so far, as compared to the multiple card and coin graders. (I think he's absolutely correct here)

 

8) There will be a reduction in new comics for sale, and at a certain point, a sharp increase in retail prices (yeah, tell us something we didn't know ).

 

I personally disagree with a few of these projections/predictions, but I'm presenting them for some debate. After all, from my point of view, sportscards are the closest to comics both in form, point of sale, and orignal owner demographics.

 

But no one really knows the future. Some may come true, or all, or none, but one thing is for sure, this guy *knows* graded sportscards and is still making money buying and selling them. So if the graded comic market follows along, expect these to be a laundry list of what's to come.

[joe_collector]

Of all times..why get mad at me now versus any other time?...

 

Maybe because I opened up and actually took the time to post something I *assumed* some on the forum would find interesting, and I never even gave a thought to the peanut gallery chiming in with something like that. I disagreed with at least 3 of the points myself, and thought it would make for an interesting debate. "Dragging out the "I hate you JC" baggage just takes away from any meaningful conversation.

 

Maybe it's because I was sharing the "cliff notes" of a conversation with a close relative, but your antagonism definitely rubbed me the wrong way. If I was talking with some guy off the street, I might have just let it slide - blood is thicker than water kind of deal.

 

Who knows, but I have definitely learned my lesson.

[Ze-man]

Of all times..why get mad at me now versus any other time?...

 

Maybe because I opened up and actually took the time to post something I *assumed* some on the forum would find interesting, and I never even gave a thought to the peanut gallery chiming in with something like that. I disagreed with at least 3 of the points myself, and thought it would make for an interesting debate. "Dragging out the "I hate you JC" baggage just takes away from any meaningful conversation.

 

Maybe it's because I was sharing the "cliff notes" of a conversation with a close relative, but your antagonism definitely rubbed me the wrong way. If I was talking with some guy off the street, I might have just let it slide - blood is thicker than water kind of deal.

 

Who knows, but I have definitely learned my lesson.

 

 

Oh for the love of pete who let Dr. Phil post on JC's accnt?

A lesson...you learned a lesson? C'mon JC if you got all of that from my post, you read way to much into it bro.

It was nothing more then a poke at the obvious similarities between you and your relatives doom and gloom way of thinking.( not that it is off target, just very similar, and funny, lighten up a bit)

After 13,000 posts..you of all people should know..POST WHAT YOU WANT, who cares what I or anyone else thinks. If I knew you were so sensitive I woulda never been so terribly, terribly cruel.

Tell you what, I will just put you on ignore so you wont have to worry about me crashing your threads with my 10 page "I hate JC manifesto's."

 

 

 

Anybody want a peanut?

 

 

[jduran1]

My bro in law has the largest card inventory in the USA. He said the same things you said but he said that 5 years ago. None of that happened. Comic market is so different than the card market and any intelligent collector knows that. They said the same things about coins and none of that happened. Supply, speculation and demand will never go out of style. Comics are more like the stock market. The market price is determined by supply, quality, greed, speculation and market hype/buzz. Look at the wonderful trend graphs on GPA Analysis. Beautiful tool for when to buy low and sell high using the rolling technique used in stocks. I am making money no matter how many comics are graded.

[Illiterati-migration]

My bro in law has the largest card inventory in the USA. He said the same things you said but he said that 5 years ago. None of that happened. Comic market is so different than the card market and any intelligent collector knows that. They said the same things about coins and none of that happened. Supply, speculation and demand will never go out of style. Comics are more like the stock market. The market price is determined by supply, quality, greed, speculation and market hype/buzz. Look at the wonderful trend graphs on GPA Analysis. Beautiful tool for when to buy low and sell high using the rolling technique used in stocks. I am making money no matter how many comics are graded.

 

Mighty powerful stupidity, there. Mighty powerful.

[joe_collector]

My bro in law has the largest card inventory in the USA. He said the same things you said but he said that 5 years ago.

 

Then your bro in law is a crackhead.. seriously.

 

Five years ago CGC was just ramping up and values were only starting to hit high levels, and as we all know it takes at least 4 years (hence my ill-fated 2004 prediction) and probably longer for the graded fad to pass. I'm the biggest bear there is, and 2004 and around 4 years was my guess - I couldn't even imagine using January 2001 as my start date.

 

2002 and 2003 were banner years for CGC product, so for your bro in law to suggest that as of January 2001, things were going to melt down, then I'll let that statement of stupidity just stand on its own.

[joe_collector]

Comics are more like the stock market.

 

Yeah, and ogres are like onions.

[MK Ultra]

 

Yeah, and ogres are like onions.

 

It's got layers!

[Aman619]

Of all times..why get mad at me now versus any other time?...

 

Maybe because I opened up and actually took the time to post something I *assumed* some on the forum would find interesting, and I never even gave a thought to the peanut gallery chiming in with something like that. I disagreed with at least 3 of the points myself, and thought it would make for an interesting debate. "Dragging out the "I hate you JC" baggage just takes away from any meaningful conversation.

 

Maybe it's because I was sharing the "cliff notes" of a conversation with a close relative, but your antagonism definitely rubbed me the wrong way. If I was talking with some guy off the street, I might have just let it slide - blood is thicker than water kind of deal.

 

Who knows, but I have definitely learned my lesson.

 

 

wow, gimme a break JC. IS anyone supposed to believe that? After 16000 posts you suddenly try out a new sensitive, honest JC and we're all supposed to turn on a dime and respect it? Let alone notice it??

 

ever hear about the boy who cried wolf?? Not to mention like ZeMan said, the tone of this NEW JC post was almost identical to the doom and gloom you always sell around here.