An interesting pricing observation

[burntboy]

in doing my homework for pricing out the 80 Marvels that i'll be selling at the NYComicCon later this month, i've made (what i consider to be) a very interesting pricing observation:

 

after compiling data from GPA, i decided to take a look at the OS guide prices, as well (despite the fact that there seems to be some fairly strong feelings that the guide is becoming more and more irrelevant).

 

after writing everything down on my FF Collection, i was surprised to notice that the average selling price for slabbed FF's in grade, seemed quite close to OS guide.

 

so i just took the 21 issues that i'll be selling which are graded between 6.5 and 9.0 and decided to do a comparison. here's what i found:

 

the AVERAGE GPA recorded selling prices for the last 12 months for those books in total are 100.594 percent of Overstreet guide prices....... yup, that's only a 6/10 of one percent difference.........

 

generally speaking, the guide is a bit higher than the realized prices at these grades, except for the FF #3 which was the only outlier.

 

i guess this isn't what i expected to see. it looks like about half of the books have been averaging an actual selling price within 5-10% of guide. perhaps it isn't quite so irrelevant, afterall...................

 

of course, when you get into 9.2 and 9.4 grades you can then throw the guide out the window as actual average prices far outstrips it.............

[THE_BEYONDER]

What's a "pring"?

[Sal]

nonslabbed mid- and low-grade SA books are waaaaay overpriced in the Guide.

 

see practically any ebay auction for proof of this

[the blob]

i don't have much experience in this regard, but of the slabbed mid-grade non early/non-key SA FFs and Spideys I've sold lately, they've gone for guide. Of course, that's what I priced them at in my store, so there wasn't much of a choice. Of course, guide was about $25 on them, which is what I priced them at, and which is what they cost someone else to slab. So, maybe the buyer was really paying more for the slab than anything else.

[Ze-man]

i decided to take a look at the OS guide prices, as well (despite the fact that there seems to be some fairly strong feelings that the guide is becoming more and more irrelevant).

 

 

 

Dont forget Harry, just because many here think the OS is obsolete, does not mean a vast amount of the buying public does as well. I imagine many still view it as a type of comic's bible. And many more might not even know what GPA is.

 

Granted those buying high end stuff are not your average collecter, and use GPA more, especially with the slabbed market. But you will be at a Con, where I imagine you will see quite a few buyers frantically flipping through an OS trying to figure out what the price should be for a 9.6 slab.

So I think you are correct to take boths price sets into account when pricing your books. But depending on wether you want to move them, or just see if you get some nibbles will be more of a factor in how you decide to set your prices.

 

You should really blow up that Sid's photo and use it as a backdrop. Sell yourself as the OO you are,your books are one of a kind.

Get um while there hot kiddies!

 

I hope it goes without saying, TAKE PICTURES of your setup please!

 

Ze-

[joe_collector]

Really think about what you're saying here for a second.

 

That a publication from May 2005, and using data that is older than that, is correctly predicting prices into 2006. That's simply amazing, astounding, a statistical anomaly to be sure.

 

Or might it be because most people still use OS to buy their comics, and in a self-fulfilling prophecy, end prices amazingly mimic the Guide? Hmmm.

[the blob]

or maybe people are willing to pay guide more often when a book is encapsulated in plastic, which costs $25-$30+ or so? end prices on raw books don't mimic guide and they ought to influence what people pay for slabs, no?

[the blob]

people paying guide for an $60 book that required someone to spend $30 for encapuslation......in my mind, that's not really paying guide for the book, that's paying half guide and then paying for the slabbing fee.

[burntboy]

Really think about what you're saying here for a second.

 

That a publication from May 2005, and using data that is older than that, is correctly predicting prices into 2006. That's simply amazing, astounding, a statistical anomaly to be sure.

 

Or might it be because most people still use OS to buy their comics, and in a self-fulfilling prophecy, end prices amazingly mimic the Guide? Hmmm.

 

i think some of your last statement probably is correct...............

 

i did the same thing for the Spideys and JIMs and actual average selling prices for the books below 9.2 were approx 104.6% of guide. still pretty close..............

 

and again, just about everything at 9.2 or above seems priced too low in the guide

 

but keep in mind, what i'm probably getting out of this is that for SA Marvels below 9.2 grade the guide is a pretty good indicator of where prices are ONLY IF THE BOOK IS SLABBED..............

[Zonker]

Really think about what you're saying here for a second.

 

That a publication from May 2005, and using data that is older than that, is correctly predicting prices into 2006. That's simply amazing, astounding, a statistical anomaly to be sure.

 

Or might it be because most people still use OS to buy their comics, and in a self-fulfilling prophecy, end prices amazingly mimic the Guide? Hmmm.

 

i think some of your last statement probably is correct...............

 

i did the same thing for the Spideys and JIMs and actual average selling prices for the books below 9.2 were approx 104.6% of guide. still pretty close..............

 

and again, just about everything at 9.2 or above seems priced too low in the guide

 

but keep in mind, what i'm probably getting out of this is that for SA Marvels below 9.2 grade the guide is a pretty good indicator of where prices are ONLY IF THE BOOK IS SLABBED..............

 

Right-- if it is slabbed, a typical buyer probably believes it is close to being accurately graded, and so whips out his Overstreet and (ta-da!) fixes on that price as his ceiling. At these grades, you have less of the high-grade fever goosing the bidding upward.

 

Buying raw on eBay is a different thing altogether. As a buyer I factor in a grading uncertainty discount. Even with a big scan, I know that some percentage of time I'll need to deal with the hassle of sending the book back, or of eating it if the return postage is a significant fraction of what I paid.

 

Buying raw at a con is still a third beast: you would think you ought to get similar results to selling a slabbed book since a buyer can see what he is getting. Instead though you have a combination of highly motivated sellers (they've already paid for their table), generally un-motivated buyers (maybe I'll score a cheaper one eventually on eBay) and lingering uncertainties (undisclosed restoration) all putting downward pressure on prices.

[burntboy]

i decided to take a look at the OS guide prices, as well (despite the fact that there seems to be some fairly strong feelings that the guide is becoming more and more irrelevant).

 

 

 

Dont forget Harry, just because many here think the OS is obsolete, does not mean a vast amount of the buying public does as well. I imagine many still view it as a type of comic's bible. And many more might not even know what GPA is.

 

Granted those buying high end stuff are not your average collecter, and use GPA more, especially with the slabbed market. But you will be at a Con, where I imagine you will see quite a few buyers frantically flipping through an OS trying to figure out what the price should be for a 9.6 slab.

So I think you are correct to take boths price sets into account when pricing your books. But depending on wether you want to move them, or just see if you get some nibbles will be more of a factor in how you decide to set your prices.

 

You should really blow up that Sid's photo and use it as a backdrop. Sell yourself as the OO you are,your books are one of a kind.

Get um while there hot kiddies!

 

I hope it goes without saying, TAKE PICTURES of your setup please!

 

Ze-

 

kenny; blowing up the picture is a pretty cool idea. i'll just have to talk to Brad about what's available, because while the building is still there, it's now a beauty salon!!

 

Brad took the actual pic that i took and photoshopped it back in time to Sid's.......for inclusion on the front of the COA........

[Rob]

Being somewhat of a statistician, I'd like to know the standard deviation too. Meaning, an average doesn't tell me anything. If OS for a book is $100, and there were 2 CGC sales, one for $50 and one for $150 (average $100), I can't accuratey say that the actual CGC pricing is the same as OS.

[the blob]

buying raw at a show SHOULD result in a little bit of a premium over ebay (you save on shipping and avoid outrageous overgrades), but not the premium of a slab because you still have the same lack of liquidity in re-selling when you take the book home. the slab is value-added because it generally increases your liquidity.

 

there are exceptions, of course. low grade marvel keys may not do any better in a slab. ditto for some GA.

[Timulty]

Double Ditto on that some GA!!!!

[tth2]

after writing everything down on my FF Collection, i was surprised to notice that the average selling price for slabbed FF's in grade, seemed quite close to OS guide.

 

so i just took the 21 issues that i'll be selling which are graded between 6.5 and 9.0 and decided to do a comparison. here's what i found:

 

the AVERAGE GPA recorded selling prices for the last 12 months for those books in total are 100.594 percent of Overstreet guide prices....... yup, that's only a 6/10 of one percent difference.........

 

generally speaking, the guide is a bit higher than the realized prices at these grades, except for the FF #3 which was the only outlier.

 

i guess this isn't what i expected to see. it looks like about half of the books have been averaging an actual selling price within 5-10% of guide. perhaps it isn't quite so irrelevant, afterall...................

Why does this surprise you, Harry? Notwithstanding what a lot of people say here (and a reminder that these boards represent only a small fraction of slab buyers out there), a lot of people still use the OS when buying slabbed books. The population of GPA users is still relatively small, and anyways GPA prices of course include people who purchased based on OS.

[14 of spades]

this pricing observation needs to be supported by data from RAW ebay sales. the conclusion you suggest (that the guide isn't so irrelevant afterall) is only looking at one piece of the pie.

 

you have to see what 6.0-9.0 RAW books sell for before you can make a comment on the accuracy of Overstreet.

[sterlingcomics]

I've always believed that Overstreet has been the relevant guide for books below NM. NM and higher, CGC quickly distances itself in the form of multiples-hence the need for something like GPA.

[jduran1]

My House of Secrets 92 9.8 white isn't showing up yet.........

[tth2]

this pricing observation needs to be supported by data from RAW ebay sales. the conclusion you suggest (that the guide isn't so irrelevant afterall) is only looking at one piece of the pie.

 

you have to see what 6.0-9.0 RAW books sell for before you can make a comment on the accuracy of Overstreet.

For someone who's allegedly teaching at a university in Asia, your reading comprehension is apparently not very good. Where did I say anything about Overstreet's accuracy? Just to refresh your memory, I've reproduced what I said with bold for emphasis. It's pretty clear that I was only talking about slabbed prices and slab buyers.

 

Notwithstanding what a lot of people say here (and a reminder that these boards represent only a small fraction of slab buyers out there), a lot of people still use the OS when buying slabbed books. The population of GPA users is still relatively small, and anyways GPA prices of course include people who purchased based on OS.

[14 of spades]

tth..

 

i just did quick reply - i wasn't in fact replying to your post, but in fact, burntboy's original post. if you read my post in that context, my reading comprehension is quite fine.

 

take it easy there. i don't even think i read your post.