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Sfilosa starts to cash out.

Started by Red Hook,

218 posts in this topic

JiveTurkeyMoFo

JiveTurkeyMoFo

Posted
Posted
But more importantly, as they found out from their Realtor, the buyer was using tons of leverage to acquire the property, and they figured they would have an opportunity within the next couple of years to reacquire their dream home, for a whole lot less.

 

They are indeed astute people.

 

I've met Steve, and I think he is pretty astute himself.

 

So...all similiar examples aside...you think a major downward correction to comic prices is on the horizon? Even on extreme pedigree comics such as Steve's? 893scratchchin-thumb.gif

 

Jim

 

I think there has been an erosion of prices across the board, from the highs of '03-04. The factors are many, and range from issues of the census, to the most basic principle of (over)supply & (under)demand. The whole Ewert thing probably hastened it along to boot. Of course, there are exceptions, and some collectors will still pay premiums for certain books (pedigreed copies included), but the overall trend is downward.

 

I think it will continue through this year and into the next, and will likely be exascerbated in the event of a downward national economic event (i.e., recession). Those who must will sell to recoup money, others will hold in hopes that prices will rise again. I'm also on record on these boards as believing the bursting nationwide real estate bubble will probably coincide lockstep with a sell-off in collectibles, comics included. Too many people are overextended, and in the event of financial crisis, disposable assets like comics will be the first to go.

 

.

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awe4one

awe4one

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I think there has been an erosion of prices across the board, from the highs of '03-04. The factors are many, and range from issues of the census, to the most basic principle of (over)supply & (under)demand. The whole Ewert thing probably hastened it along to boot. Of course, there are exceptions, and some collectors will still pay premiums for certain books (pedigreed copies included), but the overall trend is downward.

 

I think it will continue through this year and into the next, and will likely be exascerbated in the event of a downward national economic event (i.e., recession). Those who must will sell to recoup money, others will hold in hopes that prices will rise again. I'm also on record on these boards as believing the bursting nationwide real estate bubble will probably coincide lockstep with a sell-off in collectibles, comics included. Too many people are overextended, and in the event of financial crisis, disposable assets like comics will be the first to go.

 

I agree and think it's already started...collectors are already starting to sell high valued slabs in an attempt to recoup their money (probably too late in most cases). As the number of those willing to buy these slabs at premium prices dwindles...a quick devaluation is going to occur. And stay there as CGC's perceived lack of impartiality becomes more well known in comicdon at large. Some collectors may be oblivious now but word will eventually spread outside this Forum...

 

Jim

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drbanner

drbanner

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You got some nice prices on the Hulk TTA issues Steve, I see new GPA records for the 62, 63, 65, 66, 69, 70, 73, 75, 90, 93, and 101! 893whatthe.gif

 

I may be biased, but always felt that the Hulk TTA issues (and the early JIM thors) were some of the more under-valued early SA Marvels. These, combined with those record-breaking JIM sales recently, appear to indicate I wasn't the only one... 893scratchchin-thumb.gif

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sfilosa

sfilosa

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You got some nice prices on the Hulk TTA issues Steve, I see new GPA records for the 62, 63, 65, 66, 69, 70, 73, 75, 90, 93, and 101!

 

I may be biased, but always felt that the Hulk TTA issues (and the early JIM thors) were some of the more under-valued early SA Marvels. These, combined with those record-breaking JIM sales recently, appear to indicate I wasn't the only one...

 

Many were the highest graded copy, and in almost all cases they would be the nicest copy available for some time (i.e. Doug and Tom copies aren't for sale).

 

While I did get recorded prices, I paid a lot, so I'm not walking away with a fortune, just recouping my investment.

 

Still pretty happy and in a few days I'll start working some deals to move a lot more.

 

These really are the cream of the crop.

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the blob

the blob

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"Too many people are overextended, and in the event of financial crisis, disposable assets like comics will be the first to go."

 

Yet comics did extremely well during the Bush I recession, so you just never know. That one followed a real estate bubble and so on as well. (Though perhaps not as zany a bubble as this one, although perhaps more of a national bubble.) In fact, they started doing badly when the economy was doing great at the end of Clinton I, start of Clinton II. Granted, it was a different market, much more driven by speculation on new books, but the vintage stuff had gone up a lot too.

 

As for the housing bubble... depends on where you are. I look at the suburbs of NYC and where things were 5-6 years ago in 2000 and what you could get for $500K and it seems pretty cheap considering these places cost $300-$400K to build. Now, with many of those places at $800-900K, not so cheap. I look at places around Albany and a lot of other big towns/small cities not in coastal areas and things are cheap, you can get an enormous house for $250K and so on. A family with the average combined family income of $65-$70K ought to be able to handle that ok. You can't build an equivalent house for that much. There are small cities/big towns all over the country where you can get a perfectly nice 3/2 for $40-70K. The dream of home ownership is alive and well in those places!

 

As for selling your home now to buy it back later... great if you can hold on to your savings, have a cheap rental market and have a job that will support a mortgage when you're ready to come back in. Had my folks sold their home in 1989, at that peak, they would have been SOL, because their economic situation, like the economy as a whole, went down the toilet right after that. They didn't recover until...surprise surprise... their apartment was at (non-inflation adjusted) its 1989 price. Sure, individual results will vary a lot.

 

As for sfilosa's run, if these are the best of what's out there, they ought to hold up.

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JiveTurkeyMoFo

JiveTurkeyMoFo

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I would respectfully suggest that the current housing bubble is unlike anything we have ever seen. Sure, some areas will do well and weather the storm, as long as their real estate prices are based on historic fundamentals (a rational multiple of income, for example). The midwest, in general, should be fine.

 

However, we are looking at probably the single greatest asset bubble in history. Easy credit, risky loans (ARMS, interest only) and reckless competition to sell loans at bargain basement rates have put people who wouldn't qualify for a $1,000 credit card into $200,000 homes. And why were so many Wallstreet analysts surprised by the low GDP number for 4Q 2005? Its because most severely underestimated the effect of the housing boom on the national economy, and few can contemplate what its eventual end will really mean. I wouldn't be surprised if we hit a negative GDP number by the third or fourth quarter this year....and you can almost bank on a recession in 2007.

 

Foreclosures rose steadily in 2005, and in some states, are already at historic highs, yet it's only six months after the housing "peak"....meaning its going to get much worse. Florida and California will probably be the first two to go....Florida, where I live, is being pressured by an X-factor, the lack of affordable homeowner's coverage. Those people who had to resort to the state run Insurance program and have the payments rolled into their mortgages AND have ARMs that are set to adjust this year are going to get some nasty surprises when they open their bills.

 

As for comic books, well....we'll just have to wait and see.

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the blob

the blob

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I live in a weird market. Manhattan co-op apartments have sky rocketed, but you can't buy one, generally, unless you practically pose zero risk of foreclosure (yes, i'm exagerrating). Most co-op boards will not allow interest only mortgages, require 20-25% down and often require you to have a year or two of mortgage payments in the bank after purchase, etc. Plus you have a lot of international purchasing of pied-a-tierres to own a piece of Manhattan. Of course, if everything around them goes down, that'll drag them down too. Manhattan is just a tiny strip of land in the big picture.

 

But yes, the zaniness going on in certain parts of Florida is a recipe for disaster. Though some areas (Orland/Kisseme and the stuff up north on the gulf) are still fairly reasonable. But the Miami market seems nuts. Prices in the CA Bay area have not made sense for a while.

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FFB

FFB

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I live in a weird market. Manhattan co-op apartments have sky rocketed, but you can't buy one, generally, unless you practically pose zero risk of foreclosure (yes, i'm exagerrating). Most co-op boards will not allow interest only mortgages, require 20-25% down and often require you to have a year or two of mortgage payments in the bank after purchase, etc. Plus you have a lot of international purchasing of pied-a-tierres to own a piece of Manhattan. Of course, if everything around them goes down, that'll drag them down too. Manhattan is just a tiny strip of land in the big picture.

 

But yes, the zaniness going on in certain parts of Florida is a recipe for disaster. Though some areas (Orland/Kisseme and the stuff up north on the gulf) are still fairly reasonable. But the Miami market seems nuts. Prices in the CA Bay area have not made sense for a while.

 

The prices in SF proper are at least supportable by local salaries for the most part. What is baffling is how much people are willing to pay for houses out in Livermore and outlying areas. I think that the ability to commute to SF via BART means that people with healthy salaries have moved out of the cities, but even so it can't be the case that all houses in those outlying areas are owned by SF commuters.

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the blob

the blob

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What makes SF wacky is that you can rent for like 1/3 the price of owning. That doesn't make a lot of sense. My brother is out there and makes about $100K, which is pocket change out there, I understand, and isn't considering buying. He rents some humungous place in an up and coming area for like $1000 a month. Why own?

 

In Manhattan at least, the stock of available decent 2 bedroom rentals under $3500-4000 a month is rather limited, and once you get into 3 bedroom apartment you get wacky stuff like $9,000 a month. Toss in a terrace and some chucklehead is paying $15,000 a month. Not saying things aren't out of wack here in terms of buy vs. own, just not as much.

 

The main problem with living in Manhattan is lack of storage space for comics. It kills me that I don't have the room to look at my little friends when I want to. We're seriously considering going out to the burbs for this reason.

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JiveTurkeyMoFo

JiveTurkeyMoFo

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As long as we are continue to see a global low interest rate enviroment I think real estate in major centres aorund the world will continue to increase in value, expecially here on the west coast as more and more investors from China hit the market.

 

Low interest rates (i.e., cheap money) is the # 1 cuplrit in the cause of bubble markets, and not an integral part of the forumla for sustained growth.

 

Please see what happened in Singapore and Sydney as a prelude to what will happen here...investors and speculators with access to cheap money replacing actual live-in owners with a need to own. Overbuilding ensues, prices skyrocket, and real buyers disappear.

 

Besides, the axiom touting "historically low interest rates" is old and misleading to begin with. Purchase prices head south as interest rates rise, and vice versa. That's why the bubble is so dangerous...interest rates WILL head north, and even if the market were healthy with ample buyers, those who paid top dollar in 2004-2005 will find themselves underwater as their property value drops, they lose equity (either paper equity gained post purchase or that paid for with cash in the form of a down payment), and ultimately owe more then the property is worth.

 

Quick question: would you rather have bought a home in California during the 90s slump (say, with a $250,000 loan at a ridiculous 11%) or the same home during the 2005 boom with a $600,000 loan at 6%? You'd still save nearly $90,000 over 30 years in interest payments if you bought the home in a down market with a higher interest rate.

 

As for the Chinese...they will be buying en masse in 2007-2009, in the form of vulture funds scooping up foreclosures left and right.

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batman_fan

batman_fan

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I think Phoenix and Las Vegas are the ones to go down first. I know several CA investors buying up property in these two cities to flip in six months. Worked pretty good three years ago, but now things are slowing quickly. I live in the heart of Silicon Valley, do I understand paying 1million for a 50 year old 1600sft house that hasn't been remodeled? Of course not, but someone still is. I gues if you have a husband/wife team, both engineers, then they are making between 250k and 300k per year so maybe it seems cheap.

 

I agree, I think a lot of collectors over extend themselves. It is definitely easy to do with so much stuff coming to the market.

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Silver Surfer

Silver Surfer

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As long as we are continue to see a global low interest rate enviroment I think real estate in major centres aorund the world will continue to increase in value, expecially here on the west coast as more and more investors from China hit the market.

 

Low interest rates (i.e., cheap money) is the # 1 cuplrit in the cause of bubble markets, and not an integral part of the forumla for sustained growth.

 

Please see what happened in Singapore and Sydney as a prelude to what will happen here...investors and speculators with access to cheap money replacing actual live-in owners with a need to own. Overbuilding ensues, prices skyrocket, and real buyers disappear.

 

Besides, the axiom touting "historically low interest rates" is old and misleading to begin with. Purchase prices head south as interest rates rise, and vice versa. That's why the bubble is so dangerous...interest rates WILL head north, and even if the market were healthy with ample buyers, those who paid top dollar in 2004-2005 will find themselves underwater as their property value drops, they lose equity (either paper equity gained post purchase or that paid for with cash in the form of a down payment), and ultimately owe more then the property is worth.

 

Quick question: would you rather have bought a home in California during the 90s slump (say, with a $250,000 loan at a ridiculous 11%) or the same home during the 2005 boom with a $600,000 loan at 6%? You'd still save nearly $90,000 over 30 years in interest payments if you bought the home in a down market with a higher interest rate.

 

As for the Chinese...they will be buying en masse in 2007-2009, in the form of vulture funds scooping up foreclosures left and right.

 

Jive I completely agree with your assessment as I only stated a broad opinion that really did not cover any specific timelines. One thing is for sure is that population is not getting any smaller and available land in major centers just does not exist. I also see alot of family wealth trickling down to the kids in the next 10 years and that is why I feel that in the mid to long-term if you can ride out the blips in the market real estate (in major cities) is still your best investment. I also feel that 10%+ interest rates are really a thing of the past in North America. The toll they took in the early 80's and was a real eye opener. I just can't see too many governments that want to stay in power letting their country down that road again any time soon.

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