Sfilosa starts to cash out.

[SuperBird]

if I had any 9.4 or better cgc comics right now, I'd would be selling them immediately. The peak of the HG slab market is here right now, or it has just passed us.

[linmoth]

if I had any 9.4 or better cgc comics right now, I'd would be selling them immediately. The peak of the HG slab market is here right now, or it has just passed us.

 

I think it's in your rear view mirror!

 

Of course that is only MHO. There have been many posts with some very good sales figures that contradict my opinion. Most are highest graded, extremely rare or pedigrees.

 

Doug says there is only one way for pricing to go, UP.

 

Steve Borock told me years ago that the pedigree status of a book would have nothing to do with future pricing only the CGC grade. ( In reference to the Pacific Coasts books) so I assumed he was speaking of SA pedigrees.

 

I guess we will have to wait and see.

 

 

Tom

[SuperBird]

if I had any 9.4 or better cgc comics right now, I'd would be selling them immediately. The peak of the HG slab market is here right now, or it has just passed us.

 

I think it's in your rear view mirror!

 

Of course that is only MHO. There have been many posts with some very good sales figures that contradict my opinion. Most are highest graded, extremely rare or pedigrees.

 

Doug says there is only one way for pricing to go, UP.

 

Steve Borock told me years ago that the pedigree status of a book would have nothing to do with future pricing only the CGC grade. ( In reference to the Pacific Coasts books) so I assumed he was speaking of SA pedigrees.

 

I guess we will have to wait and see.

 

 

Tom

 

My view has alot more to do with the large gulf that exists between 9.0 and 9.4+ values. At some point i believe that collectors will realize that this is an artificial investor market of sorts essentially brought on by CGC grading, and that owning a 9.0 copy is just about as good as most collector's REALLY want. Let's not even TALK abouy VF books going for 1/2 guide or less on ebay.

[linmoth]

if I had any 9.4 or better cgc comics right now, I'd would be selling them immediately. The peak of the HG slab market is here right now, or it has just passed us.

 

I think it's in your rear view mirror!

 

Of course that is only MHO. There have been many posts with some very good sales figures that contradict my opinion. Most are highest graded, extremely rare or pedigrees.

 

Doug says there is only one way for pricing to go, UP.

 

Steve Borock told me years ago that the pedigree status of a book would have nothing to do with future pricing only the CGC grade. ( In reference to the Pacific Coasts books) so I assumed he was speaking of SA pedigrees.

 

I guess we will have to wait and see.

 

 

Tom

 

My view has alot more to do with the large gulf that exists between 9.0 and 9.4+ values. At some point i believe that collectors will realize that this is an artificial investor market of sorts essentially brought on by CGC grading, and that owning a 9.0 copy is just about as good as most collector's REALLY want. Let's not even TALK abouy VF books going for 1/2 guide or less on ebay.

 

Mattbird: I think that there are alot of us that have come to terms with the fact that many 9.0's are as nice as some 9.4's. Buyers have to be a little more discriminate and actually look at the book inside the holder or be able to grade raw for themselves. Of course there is the argument that many of the 9.4's were once 9.0's! But let's not go there. OOPS I think I did.

 

Tom

[namisgr]

Years ago, when CGC was just underway, I recall several discussions about the notion that the new "pedigree" would be the high CGC graded run, and that the recognized pedigrees would no longer have as much significance as they once did.

 

Now that books have been slabbed for over 5 years, I take the position that high grade pedigree books are even more desirable than ever. Two main reasons. First, there is the realization that with CGC concentrating so much on edges and structure, certain pedigrees in general really shine in comparison to many nonpedigreed copies owing to superior cover color preservation, gloss, registration, staple placement, etc (i.e., "eye appeal"). Second, there is the realization that most Silver Age Marvels are available in multiple copies in NM or better condition. What can make a 9.4 special among many others for a given issue is the provenance of the book - I, for one, would rather own a Curator, Mass, Northland, PC, or WM NM copy of a comic that is fairly common in high grade than a NM nonpedigreed copy that has no other characteristic to make it special.

 

What do you think about the importance and desirability of peds many years into the CGC experiment?

[Aman619]

just when I thought you had softened your take on it all with your comments about weaknesses in the China Behemoth. : )

[the blob]

"But Blob, I cited a one month example for new home sales...a one month drop of nearly 20%.

 

It could be a simple one month blip....or it could be a continuation of a downward trend."

 

You need to take these numbers with a grain of salt. Maybe some huge uber luxury subdivision opened up 12-18 months ago that may have bumped San Diego numbers up a bit and perhaps a bunch of low end stuff hit the market more recently? Maybe some big condo development opened up and a bunch of 1 and 2 bedroom apartments lowered things. I don't know all the factors that went into things. San Diego is small enough that this could actually have an impact.

 

You cite to your Florida market, but also point to a bunch of things like insurance costs that are very local and don't have so much to do with a bubble. My homeowner's insurance went DOWN this year. I suppose they don't think Manhattan is a big hurricane risk.

 

There was a 5-10% average drop in Manhattan too a few months ago, but when you looked at the numbers, the AVERAGE was pulled down because apartments selling for like $5 million and up had seen a little bit of a drop, but when a $10 million apartment drops to $9 million (because $10 million was irrationally exhuberant in the first place), average that in and it makes it look like a lot of $1 million apartments (as slightly below price for manhattan apartments) are dropping to $$950K when that might not be the case. There are enough $5 million+ apartments here that they do impact the average a lot. But I don't think they have much to do with where the rest of us live.

 

Anyway, I'm more prone to think that there will be a soft landing more impacted by interest rates going up than anything else. Sure, some speculation pockets in Florida and the Southwest may be hit harder. But overall, 10-20% drops over the next few years will not be the end of the world Heck, the stock market drops more than that and it isn't the end of the world.

[SuperBird]

Years ago, when CGC was just underway, I recall several discussions about the notion that the new "pedigree" would be the high CGC graded run, and that the recognized pedigrees would no longer have as much significance as they once did.

 

Now that books have been slabbed for over 5 years, I take the position that high grade pedigree books are even more desirable than ever. Two main reasons. First, there is the realization that with CGC concentrating so much on edges and structure, certain pedigrees in general really shine in comparison to many nonpedigreed copies owing to superior cover color preservation, gloss, registration, staple placement, etc (i.e., "eye appeal"). Second, there is the realization that most Silver Age Marvels are available in multiple copies in NM or better condition. What can make a 9.4 special among many others for a given issue is the provenance of the book - I, for one, would rather own a Curator, Mass, Northland, PC, or WM NM copy of a comic that is fairly common in high grade than a NM nonpedigreed copy that has no other characteristic to make it special.

 

What do you think about the importance and desirability of peds many years into the CGC experiment?

 

The fact that people are FORCED to focus on the different shades of perfection to give SA and newer books 'collector value' just proves to me that in the internet age all of these books are in fact less valuable. The "My comic is slightly more near perfect than your near perfect comic" mentality is artificial.

 

What are we collecting here? Numbers or comic books? the point of a comic book is to read and enjoy it. If you have to worry that reading your book will drop it .2 of a grade, I think you are missing the point of the hobby. Better off playing the stock market, unless you are a dealer.

 

---------------------------------------------------------

When that run of 9.4 JIM books sold on Comic Link a few weeks back, I recall thinking that for the price of a random 9.6 JIM issue, I could have bought the entire JIM Thor run in lower grade. I'd rather have the run.

[the blob]

"First, a LOT of people bought last year. New homes, bigger homes, investment and vacation properties."

 

Sure, but many of them were upgrading, so they were selling at the top at inflated prices. First-time homeowners may be in for a hammering.

 

If you bought with the intention of living there, and have a mortgage you can afford, then it shouldn't be such a big problem. Ride it out. A home isn't like an equity investment you dump when there's trouble. You're living there and there are big costs associated with selling and moving (and where do you move to?)

 

Speculators and flippers are going to get burned. People who bought will be irritated if they paid too much, sure.

 

If banks are aggressive with foreclosures, it could be bad. But I think they learned lessons from 15 years ago where they lost a lot of money being aggressive.

 

Anyway, I'd like to see the numbers on how many people currently have these zany mortgages. It's a relatively recent phenom.

 

Anyway, I'm staying put. While I could cash in on my still relatively liquid asset, I do need a place to live and I can certainly easily afford my payments. I'm resisting my wife's urgings for us to get a bigger place and spend a ton of money in the process unless it's a no brainer purchase, although waiting for prices to drop will likely not do me much good given that the price on my biggest asset will drop too.

[the blob]

"I've been looking in the Village and Flatiron/Union Square area, though the market is soft elsewhere as well."

 

If you compare it to last summer, which was a peak, yeah sure, it may seem soft. But what about compared to 2003 and 2004 when the housing market was pretty darn solid?

 

All I know is that $850K still gets me a crappy 2 bedroom apartment on the UWS that may or may not have a second toilet. That was the case last summer as well. This market doesn't seem so soft to me!

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

But overall, 10-20% drops over the next few years will not be the end of the world

 

I guess we are just going to have to disagree on this.

 

With so many jobs created in housing, construction and related industries in the last few years and with the re-fi tap being shut off, the economy is going to suffer as it has become too dependent on housing growth.

 

And it is in recessions where the housing market usually bottoms out.

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

Anyway, I'd like to see the numbers on how many people currently have these zany mortgages. It's a relatively recent phenom.

 

I read an article where more than half of all San Diego properties purchased in 2005 were done with ARM mortgages...I think the number was just over 60%. I'll see if I can find it and post it here.

 

Oh, and between 2006 & 2007, $2.5 TRILLION in hybrid mortgages are set to adjust.

 

 

[the blob]

yeah, my cousin is a mortgage broker and when i told him I wanted a 30 year mortgage fixed at 5.75% and that I was planning on putting 50% down on my home he thought I was nuts. "get an interest only mortgage, put 5-10% down, 30 year mortgages are for people who grew up in the Depression, nobody ever pays off their mortgage, why would you want to have that much equity in your property????"

 

it sounded very seductive at the time, but i didn't go for it. i do buy the idea that paying off a mortgage is an antiquated concept.

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

This is an interesting article on ARMs and hybrid loans.

 

And in it, a research group cites that 55% of all mortgages nationally in the first half of 2005 were ARMs. Scary stuff.

[sfilosa]

Years ago, when CGC was just underway, I recall several discussions about the notion that the new "pedigree" would be the high CGC graded run, and that the recognized pedigrees would no longer have as much significance as they once did.

 

Now that books have been slabbed for over 5 years, I take the position that high grade pedigree books are even more desirable than ever. Two main reasons. First, there is the realization that with CGC concentrating so much on edges and structure, certain pedigrees in general really shine in comparison to many nonpedigreed copies owing to superior cover color preservation, gloss, registration, staple placement, etc (i.e., "eye appeal"). Second, there is the realization that most Silver Age Marvels are available in multiple copies in NM or better condition. What can make a 9.4 special among many others for a given issue is the provenance of the book - I, for one, would rather own a Curator, Mass, Northland, PC, or WM NM copy of a comic that is fairly common in high grade than a NM nonpedigreed copy that has no other characteristic to make it special.

 

What do you think about the importance and desirability of peds many years into the CGC experiment?

 

I agree 100% (which is why I always bought pedigree copies if I could).

 

Also regarding the 9.0 is almost as nice as 9.4 so why is a 9.4 worth three to four times as much issue, the answer is because.......

 

it's that way in almost every field.

 

Take a diamond. Is a 1 carat diamond worth twice as much as 1/2 carat? No, it worth a lot more than 2 times, because it is clearly more rare. And while we can argue that comic book grading is subjective, isn't gems cuts, clarity, color, etc. also subjective. Yes the weight (i.e. carat) can be measured perfectly but nothing else can (i.e. there is some subjectivity).

 

So the point is that it's moot to say that a 9.4 should only sell for a little more than a 9.2 or 9.0 because the difference is very small. If a buyer is looking to put together a 9.4 run, a 9.2 WILL NOT DO. Does that make logical sense, maybe not, but it's clearly not only an issue with comic books.

[the blob]

"Even before the reset gets under way, households were devoting a record 13.75 percent of their after-tax income to servicing debt, including mortgage debt."

 

Actually, this 13.75% figure doesn't seem high at all when you include mortgage payments. But I guess it averages in a lot of renters, so people who own homes are probably much much higher on average, which is where they got their 24% of median income figure for Sarasota.

 

In areas where they've seen 30% annual increases over the last 3 years, yeah, that sounds like trouble. But most places aren't like that. Here, I think it's been more like 10-15% annual gains, but starting in about 1996.

 

Anyway, interesting article. I don't know people who have overleveraged themselves like this, but then again, I know a lot of lawyers, and we tend to be conservative. I'm glad I'm locked in at 5 3/4% and have a mortgage payment I can make if I put a little bit of effort into selling comics on ebay.

[delekkerste]

i do buy the idea that paying off a mortgage is an antiquated concept.

 

I think the notion that real estate is a good investment that can only appreciate over time will also soon be an antiquated concept.

[Aman619]

I read in the Observer that the former Guccione Mansion will be sold at perhaps a listing as high as 90 million dollars. While it IS a double townhouse and maybe the biggest in the city, I choked on my sandwich at a Manhattan house for almost 9 figures. But, there sure seem to be plenty of 10-35 million properties in play the past few years....

 

And I think Id rather have the mansion than the Van Gogh for that much! After a complete scrubdown with Lysol! Yeras of 70s Penthouse parties yeeechhhh!

[sfilosa]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

i do buy the idea that paying off a mortgage is an antiquated concept.

 

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

 

I think the notion that real estate is a good investment that can only appreciate over time will also soon be an antiquated concept.

 

There are no sure things in this world. That said, as I pointed out, a house / place of business, etc. is a necessity (excluding third world countries).

 

What price to pay is a different question, but as interest rate go up, you can expect rental rates to also go up. It was easier for Landlords to keep rental rates down, when they were borrowing at very low rates. Plus, people were moving from apartments to new homes so there was less demand. So if you think people will stop buying houses and keep renting, then rental rates will increase, which will inturn make people want to own, but once again at what price level is yet to be determined.

 

Remember that apartments and businesses usually only get 5 (at most 10) year loans amortized over 30 years. So if they refinanced the property a few years ago, those loans will mature in a few years, forcing them to increase rental rates.

 

It's a cycle........

[linmoth]

.

 

What do you think about the importance and desirability of peds many years into the CGC experiment?

 

I feel the same as you. If I was persuing HG SA books I would be buying only pedigrees, and I would limit those purchases to keys and semi keys. Hoping to preserve their liquidity. I would also buy what I liked. That is always the key!

 

I think that the average collector has been forced out of the HG market and it's now something for the savy investor or long term collector that has resources and equity in comics that were purchased before CGC. You really should have an idea about what you are doing before plunking down the kind of money that HG books are commanding these days.

 

I think there are a few factors to the pedigree question.

 

1) The Pedigree from which the book hails from. Some as have been discussed are a pretty far stretch to have the pedigree label.

 

2) The book itself. Its eye appeal. Is it in its natural state?

 

3) How does it fit into my collection.

 

I have seen enough pedigree books to know that there is something very special about owning them, just knowing their provenance, the fact that it wasn't some fluke that one book maintained its beautiful condition, but it was surrounded by many others in that same wonderful state.

 

Tom