CGC books and Ebay

[Paul_Maul]

What do people think about the truth of the following statement?

 

"The probability of a CGC certified comic of a given grade offered for sale on ebay being either

originally overgraded or suffering from SCS (slab damage) is significantly higher

than the overall probability that a slab in that grade is undesirable for one of these reasons.

 

This is because the vast majority of people who feel a slabbed book they purchased

is overgraded, or who receive a book with slab damage, will re-list it on ebay immediately,

whereas they may have kept the book if it was a nice example of the grade and

undamaged.

 

Furthermore, as time passes, the percentage of undesirable books in a given grade on

ebay will increase as more books suffer irreversible slab damage and are repeatedly

re-listed on ebay.

 

This effect ultimately undermines the entire purpose of certification, which is a buyer

being able to purchase a book in a given grade sight unseen with confidence. "

[Wally's Comics]

depends on which grade you collect...

 

this statement seems to be pinned to very HG material...

 

 

 

[divad]

Yes . . . and No - Obviously, you have to do your homework.

[Paul_Maul]

True, I intended the statement primarily to refer to high grade books, as these are the

books primarily affected by SCS and probably most likely for a buyer to be displeased with

the grading, though the last part may be debatable depending on CGC's tightness

as a function of grade.

[Sal]

if you could figure out a way to separate the speculators/flippers from the collectors, then yeah, i could sort of buy your argument.

 

but you can't, so it's kind of moot, isn't it?

[drbanner]

I agree with the basic sentiment and started a thread on this a while back - Attrition rate for re-slabs.

 

Nobody's going to resubmit an overgraded and/or slab-damaged book, and it seems that eventually the population of books in circulation will either have already "reached their potential", or already be labeled well above what once was their potential (either through being overgraded initially, or damage since grading). The well-centered, colorful, and accurately graded books will eventually all get put into permanent collections, while the ugly ducklings get passed around like hot potatoes!

[Paul_Maul]

Mainly, my point is that a CGC 9.6 purchased sight unseen on ebay is likely to be a

poorer than average example of the grade, which dilutes the supposed value of

certification. I have found the same to be true of PSA graded cards, where I have

often paid a premium on ebay for a PSA 8 only to find it is a weak 8.

 

Granted, nice scans mitigate this effect somewhat, but I thought the value of certification

was that CGC was worrying about the grading for me. It seems as though a newbie

is just as at risk as ever, just more overconfident now.

[Paul_Maul]

I agree with the basic sentiment and started a thread on this a while back - Attrition rate for re-slabs.

 

Nobody's going to resubmit an overgraded and/or slab-damaged book, and it seems that eventually the population of books in circulation will either have already "reached their potential", or already be labeled well above what once was their potential (either through being overgraded initially, or damage since grading). The well-centered, colorful, and accurately graded books will eventually all get put into permanent collections, while the ugly ducklings get passed around like hot potatoes!

 

Exactimundo!

[Wally's Comics]

I'm a long run type of collector...

 

I believe that one day (about 20 years from now) computers will be so cheap that they

will be produced to attach to everything...

 

Including our precious "funny book" holders.

 

There will be a mini computer inside of each holder an once the grade is placed

the computer will take over...

 

If there is moister present after incapsulation (there will be grade reduction in the comic's computer bank)

If there is a shaken case (there will be grade reduction in the comic's computer bank)

If there is a dropped book (there will be grade reduction in the comic's computer bank)

 

etc. etc..

 

So I don't worry about anything,

I let technology catch-up and let it worry about it...

 

 

 

 

 

[sterlingcomics]

This statement, or at least a cleansed version of it, will be in my education thread on certified comic books in regards to some of the risks.

[LordRahl]

It seems as though a newbie is just as at risk as ever, just more overconfident now

 

I disagree. I have yet to see a major dealer be as consistently tight with grading as CGC is, most overgrade in relation to how CGC would grade a book. And there's no reason to even mention the majority of ebayers in which case 99% of 9.6s are actually somewhere between 4.0 and 9.0 but rarely anything resembling 9.6.

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

I'm a long run type of collector...

 

I believe that one day (about 20 years from now) computers will be so cheap that they

will be produced to attach to everything...

 

Including our precious "funny book" holders.

 

There will be a mini computer inside of each holder an once the grade is placed

the computer will take over...

 

If there is moister present after incapsulation (there will be grade reduction in the comic's computer bank)

If there is a shaken case (there will be grade reduction in the comic's computer bank)

If there is a dropped book (there will be grade reduction in the comic's computer bank)

 

etc. etc..

 

So I don't worry about anything,

I let technology catch-up and let it worry about it...

 

 

 

 

If you're right, CGC won't even need human graders, the computers will do all the grading and follow exact pre-progammed criteria. No more human error or judgement!

[the blob]

who knows. you also get people listing batches of books they just got back from CGC in an effort to quickly get their money back. no reason to think there are any problems per se with those.

[Stronguy]

Your statement is plausable if the sample if finite. However, since not every copy of a single book has been graded new, desirable copies of that book can/will be introduced into the wild.

 

Example:

100 books originally appear in the wild.

20 of these are lame.

Your odds of getting a lame duck are 1:5 (20%).

 

All 100 books are purchased and 40 of them are reintorduced into the wild.

Assume that 15 of those are lame.

So now your odd are 15:40 (37.5%).

But 10 new books are introduced -- only 2 (20%) lame.

Now you're at 16:50 (34%)

 

So, as new books get introduced into the population the lame:good ratio is changed.

[worldsbestcomics]

Paul,

 

I think that there are a couple flaws with your statement.

 

First, in my experience, when a collector sells is more likely to be tied to their personal financial situation or the comic book "market" than whether a book is weak or strong example of a grade. As for dealers, most high-volume sellers seem to put their books on the market as soon as they receive them from CGC. Finally, I don't see a lot of slab damage, particularly with the newer holders.

 

I personally feel that the best safeguard against buying a weak book is a nice scan and a seller who accepts returns, even on CGC-graded book. I stay away from books that I think are weak - no matter the CGC-grade. And, I stay away from PGX books altogether unless I can hold them in my hand and grade them myself before buying.

[Flaming_Telepath]

Hey, Dave! Nice to see you posting!

 

One thing I can definitely speak to here is the selling of the 'weak' books. I've recently got out of dealing, but have treated myself to some of the stock, which has now made its way into my collection.

 

The rest of the stuff I've sold, a lot of it on eBay, but it wasn't a simple matter of 'I'm keeping everything in 9.2 or better', which is my usual benchmark. I found myself selling a lot of 9.2s that simply weren't, some 9.4s that exhibited poor registration/cut, but actually retaining some strong 9.0s. To my eye, the books that hit eBay were the ugly ducklings.

 

However, this scenario would only repeat with a true collector who bought the book and not the label. There will always be the commodity shifters on eBay who buy the product in, or slab the raw books themselves, and then move them along without making any value judgements. In those circumstances, there will still be a mixture of the good, the bad and the ugly.