CGC market heating back up?

[drbanner]

Kudos in advance to the comicsheet, but I thought these graphs were pretty interesting and others would want to take a peek - has the crash ended?

 

In a nutshell, prices on super high grade (9.6), but common, late 70's/early 80's keys have remained stable since last fall after dropping a good 30% between the summer and fall, but prices on common silver/bronze keys in mid-high grade (7.5-9.6) have recovered to near pre-crash levels. Hmmmm....

[sfilosa]

Or is the New Guide effect.

 

Notice the upturn coinsides with the release of the new guide.

 

I don't forsee a "Crash" per se, but wait until after August and see what happens. A huge amount of books are going to sell at Heritage Signature Auction and San Diego and I see a lot of people being "tapped out" for a few months.

 

Plus, if the Stock Market continues to go up (the first time in three years), I see some of the "investors" moving back into something more liquid than comic books (especially at current prices).

 

I enjoy collecting comics, but if I think the stock market will continue to increase 10-20% a year, I'm putting more money there than into comics (considering the prices).

 

 

[Kevin76]

I saw the heritage auctions for san deigo and there really isn't much that intrests me on there and there is a lack of high grade early silver,best book on there is ASM 1 9.2,no other keys or rare books to be offered this time,seems like the same books over again begin ofered "try again" books is what i call them.But it's mostly just the same books being passed around..Hmmmm Are most of the high grade silver age books being dried up??

[clobberintime]

I have kind of lost interest at Heritage too. won plenty from them but the really good stuff gets bid to infinity and hard to win unless you are there. I don't think the good stuff is drying up at all - just more behind the scenes like you talked about in your last post with me. Look at the books Comgeek just listed! And Drummy has sold some incredible books from his collection I have bought way more stuff off ebay this last year than on ebay - like a Hulk 2 9.0, X-men 4,5,6 all 9.4s; FF 9 9.2, FF 10 9.0 etc. I know of two pretty nice original owner collections that may make it to ebay unless they get bought up first. Bronze bruce has sold a ton of good books off ebay - as has Zen Comics. I have just run into another good source of ultra high grade cgc books that I will post more about as soon as i make sure I have the books I need first. There has been some pretty good stuff at decent prices on ebay lately too. Those spideys Notch Top sold went surprisingly high and the Astonish books Eides sold last night did very well.

[Smokinghawk]

I wonder what'll happen to those people who bought key comics at INSANE prices, like a Hulk 181 for a dozen thousand dollars or whatever. Does that mean we'll never see that Hulk again? Is that issue extinct to us now? Because it'll take YEARS for the market to make an "honest" catch-up to that "CGC mania" season price, and nobody who took a hit that huge on the buying price will sucker themselves again by ever selling it for a loss. That means those "craze" books will be sitting in storage for years waiting for the overeager investor to realize market equity sufficient to sell that book again.

 

[garthgantu]

It would also be interesting to cross-reference this index with each "issue" of the CGC census... one would expect that a delayed reaction to the new CGC census numbers might cause a corresponding fall or rise, depending on how each of the books in question fared in the new census...?

[sfilosa]

Don't kid yourself into thinking people won't take a loss on books. Happens all the time.

 

I do believe the same books are being sold on Heritage Auctions over and over again but to say there is a lack of quality is somewhat surprising. If your looking for a Silver-Age NM key that would go for $50K or more, you might be correct. But they have a lot of keys in the VF to NM- range. And if you really did have a NM key, would you really not tried to sell it yourself. Heritage basically gets a 30% cut of every book. On a $50K book they are getting $15K. I got to believe I could find a buyer myself for $40K.

 

Still, I lkie their auctions a lot and they have way more high quality Golden Age books than I ever see on eBay.

 

 

 

 

[fantastic_four]

Prices are higher on ebay right now because supply is lower than last year. I haven't bought a book from ebay in over a month--that's a new record for me!! I see plenty I want, but they keep going for over what I'm used to paying so I keep losing.

[Kevin76]

Don't get me wrong Sfilosa,

Im not saying 50K keys not being listed on Heritage,I'm looking at early FF's early Hulk's and JIM's along with early Spidey and X-men,I was just looking through the listings and didn't really see much as far as early superhero stuff 9.2+ I don't collect anything below 9.0 unless it's a Hulk 1 or AF 15 then I wouldn't go below an 8.0,I didn't look at that much golden age,Heck, I'd take a Tec 27 in 3.0,wouldn't you?? I'd take it if it was a 2.0.Just have to get that book!... Kevin

 

[12c_Comic]

Prices are higher on ebay right now because supply is lower than last year. I haven't bought a book from ebay in over a month--that's a new record for me!! I see plenty I want, but they keep going for over what I'm used to paying so I keep losing.

 

I have to agree with you,just this pass week I was bidding on a copy of F.F. #16 at a grade of VF 8.0 CGC on EBAY which went higher then what I expected.

[sfilosa]

One thing to remember is that most people don't sell a book (or a stock or coin, whatever) unless the price goes up or down.

 

In other words, all the people who bought books at fair value in the past six months are not going to sell unless they see some real appreciation in the sale price (i.e. 20% or more). Or vice versa, if they see priceS declining rapidly and they own books that they don't really collected but bought because of HYPE, they might sell at a loss (just to recoup some money).

 

I'm not talking about dealers who get the books at 50-60% of FMV because they either bought them raw or in a big lot, I'm talking your average collector who sells every now and then.

 

Therefore, what you are really seeING is a lot of high BIN or reserves that are not selling. Yes, it seems that some auctions are getting bids above recent prices, but not extreme bids. Of course, every once and a while you will see a "Extreme" price paid for a book, but you also see that on the down side (just hope I buying that book).

 

I really forsee a "stable" market for a while. Tough to get bargains, but also tough to buy a book and flip for a nice profit. It will be interesting to see the market after the convention season is over.

 

Just my thoughts.

 

[joe_collector]

Therefore, what you are really seeING is a lot of high BIN or reserves that are not selling.

 

Yep, and that's not good for the overall market, as it suggests fear that FMV will not be realized in an open market. From my POV, that would make me hesitant to "buy into" any high-end CGC books, simply because there seems to be decreased liquidity across the board.

 

Now it's time for the Usual Suspects to chime in with some uber-sales of CGC 9.6-9.8 ASM 1-10 issues... Big surprise there, and those make up about 0.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000001% of the comic market.

[murph0]

The non-eBay market has been surprisingly active. Last year it was mostly eBay, this year it's for the most part..not. I've only bought 4 books off eBay so far and 6 outside of eBay. The prices on eBay for early S.A. stuff is getting bid up higher than, in some cases, it goes for privately. Probably due to the lack of material on eBay.

 

Brian

[sfilosa]

OK, who's got all the good books outside of eBay (at reasonable prices)?

[g-man]

i have!

but hey what else is new?

[joe_collector]

i have!

but hey what else is new?

 

Ummm, just to make sure, you did read the last part right?

 

"OK, who's got all the good books outside of eBay (at reasonable prices)?"

[murph0]

rofl

 

Brian

[COI]

really forsee a "stable" market for a while. Tough to get bargains, but also tough to buy a book and flip for a nice profit. It will be interesting to see the market after the convention season is over.

 

I agree. This is definetly not the ideal market conditions for "flippers". 95% of the stuff on ebay is not moving because most of these books were purchased last year, and buyers are either trying to profit, or get out all together as you mentioned. I know this because I recognize many of these books. A lot of these sellers set extremely high BIN's, because they are trying to get their money back. I've had a few instances recently where I've emailed sellers and asked if they would consider lowering their opening bids and BIN's and I always here the same thing: "Well, I bought it for $XXX, last year, and I'm already losing money on the price". This is especially true with mid-late silver.

[FlyingDonut]

really forsee a "stable" market for a while. Tough to get bargains, but also tough to buy a book and flip for a nice profit. It will be interesting to see the market after the convention season is over.

 

I agree. This is definetly not the ideal market conditions for "flippers". 95% of the stuff on ebay is not moving because most of these books were purchased last year, and buyers are either trying to profit, or get out all together as you mentioned. I know this because I recognize many of these books. A lot of these sellers set extremely high BIN's, because they are trying to get their money back. I've had a few instances recently where I've emailed sellers and asked if they would consider lowering their opening bids and BIN's and I always here the same thing: "Well, I bought it for $XXX, last year, and I'm already losing money on the price". This is especially true with mid-late silver.

 

right, but the "crash" never happened...

[COI]

right, but the "crash" never happened...

 

When did I say the Crash didn't happen? It did on a large number of post 66' books. I never refuted that. All I've said was that not ALL post 66' non-keys have crashed, but most have. Pre ASM #100 issues have remained constant in 9.4, but have dropped in 9.6. Certain other titles like Avengers has had some increased prices in 9.4+ non-keys, because they aren't up for sale a lot. I've always tried to say that a blanket statement like "all post-66' non-keys have crashed" is not a reasonable assesment. Perhaps I've given the impression I'm all bullish when it comes to the S.A market, but that can't be farther from the truth.