To Be A Gerber "9" Or Not To Be, That Is The Question!

[whomerjay]

Me, I understand that attempting to balance one's checkbook nets one $0.05 per hour invested, thus I never do it.

 

unless someone is always thisclose to bouncing checks, in which case the value of the time spent is enormous.

 

I didn't want to irritate anyone with my Gerber post, which I know probably came off as arrogant and/or condescending. I'm glad we're basically in agreement, and I'll fade back a bit on this. My whole real-life job is valuing things (in my case, companies), and as such I like to apply similar principles to whatever it is I'm buying/selling, whether it's comics, wine, or stocks. It's kind of an OCD (except that I'm not neat or tidy, to my wife's chagrin).

 

You need to visit Comics General or Marketplace to view posts that are truly arroggant/offensive. I don't think anyone interpreted your comments as such.

 

I think it's important to lay out the limitations of any "guide". It's an intellectual discourse, that's it. Even Gerber (is he alive?) would have no objections with people noting we now have more info and better data collecting capabilities to determining scarcity. Everyone is in agreement the photojournals were well done, a hellava contribution to the hobby, and that the scarcity designations were well-conceived (albeit ultimately somewhat off) considering his resources at that time.

[Scrooge]

Even Gerber (is he alive?)

 

Gerber passed away in the last 2 years.

[Ripatwork-migration]

(8) Catman Comics #13

 

Great thread!

 

I have the Catman zine from Mike Bromberg, and his finding is that #13 is definitely not a Gerber 9...he describes it as "probably more like a high (Gerber) 7". Probably the crazy prices this book has sometimes commanded in recent years ($1000+ even in VG!) was enough to bring a few more copies to market.

 

.

 

Yes, Mike who is THE Catman expert has said that #13 isn't as scarce as believed, in fact I think he feels other Catman issues are tougher. I would go after a #13 if I saw one for a price that didn't reflect such an assumed scarcity.

 

#13 is a very rare book. Were there copies that came out of the woodwork? If so, I have not seen them.

 

Stephen

 

I think 13 and 9 are the toughest two. Some seem to think 16 is tough also.

[october]

(8) Catman Comics #13

 

Great thread!

 

I have the Catman zine from Mike Bromberg, and his finding is that #13 is definitely not a Gerber 9...he describes it as "probably more like a high (Gerber) 7". Probably the crazy prices this book has sometimes commanded in recent years ($1000+ even in VG!) was enough to bring a few more copies to market.

 

.

 

Yes, Mike who is THE Catman expert has said that #13 isn't as scarce as believed, in fact I think he feels other Catman issues are tougher. I would go after a #13 if I saw one for a price that didn't reflect such an assumed scarcity.

 

#13 is a very rare book. Were there copies that came out of the woodwork? If so, I have not seen them.

 

Stephen

 

I think 13 and 9 are the toughest two. Some seem to think 16 is tough also.

 

I emailed back and forth with Mike a few times when I bought his Catman 30, and I also picked up his fanzines.

 

I would trust his conclusions a lot sooner than Gerber's.

 

 

[esquirecomics]

So you bought a book on eBay that was supposed to be scarce according to Gerber, then were told it's plentiful because sometime in the interim 17 years there was a warehouse find, and now want to check to make sure the other Gerber numbers are accurate to better refine your want list?

 

It's fun to discuss scarcity, but I'm telling you, Gerber ratings are a terribly antiquated way to go about it. They were cutting edge when the books came out, but we have exponentially more info at our fingertips now than Ernie Gerber ever did. Using his ratings as the primary filter for scarcity seems like forcing high school students to use typewriters instead of computers; just because it used to be the best idea doesn't mean it still is.

 

I appreciate your comments, and applaud the time you devoted towards expressing your scarcity index valuation as this was the exact type of substantive contribution expected in this thread.

 

But frankly the comments above were unnecessary. I've been creating Gerber threads for the last 18 months trying to track the accuracy of the books. What better way to start fleshing out the discrepancies then via this and other similar threads. My interest didn't start with the fact I spent $31 on a book that Gerber said was scarcer than it actually turned out to be, nor do I use the photojournals as a primary filter. It is an initial filter, one among many - including these boards and threads like this that serve as an educational component for forumites to review.

[CentaurMan]

I calls 'em like I sees 'em. I do agree with you, though, that the comments were unnecessary.

 

[october]

I calls 'em like I sees 'em. I do agree with you, though, that the comments were unnecessary.

 

 

Wuss.

[CentaurMan]

I calls 'em like I sees 'em. I do agree with you, though, that the comments were unnecessary.

 

 

Wuss.

 

Hell, I was concerned that my "calls 'em like I sees 'em" line could be interpreted by hypersensitive individuals as a complete non-apology.

[Fan4Fan]

my "calls 'em like I sees 'em" line could be interpreted by hypersensitive individuals as a complete non-apology.

 

 

[Timulty]

Scarcity is an subjective concept caught in the garb of objectivity. We seek absolute values to scarcity when it is entirely subjective. You see an issue pass through your hands 5 times in 3 monthes and you think, well it can't be all that scarce but if no one else sees one, then it's apparently quite scarce. I can estimate that there are 15 copies of Adventure Comics 37 based on what I have seen but dealers could have another dozen different books sitting on their shelves. Just be patient. Live long enough and you will see the body of your enemy(hopefully, NOT cluching an Action #1) floating past you on the river of life.

[aardvark88]

Hardly ever see All-Negro comics. Disagree with All-American #4. Think Ian Levine had a much harder time finding All-American #2. After he scoured the Earth, I sold him my 2 incomplete copies so he could rebuild them into 1 complete #2.

[CentaurMan]

Hardly ever see All-Negro comics. Disagree with All-American #4. Think Ian Levine had a much harder time finding All-American #2. After he scoured the Earth, I sold him my 2 incomplete copies so he could rebuild them into 1 complete #2.

 

Boy, I'd have said that it seems like All-Negro has been coming out of the woodwork recently (I can think of two that sold on eBay in the past 18 months, plus 4 separate copies on Heritage since 2002), while I don't remember having trouble finding this copy of A-A 2:

 

 

I don't, however, have an All-American #4.

[adamstrange]

[<snip> it's like having a computer and an abacus and choosing to use the abacus because it takes too long to boot up the computer. Except that analogy isn't perfect because the abacus will actually give you correct data.

 

Why, you, behavioralist!? Don't you know markets are efficient and all investors are rational? At least, that's the Chicago opinion.

 

Let me provide another comic book analogy for your arsenal. We "know" that the true relationship between grade and price is non-linear, i.e., prices rise up faster than grade proportionately in an exponential manner one could say. Yet, comic collector are wont to average F and VF prices to find the "F/VF" price: we've been having such a discussion in the General forum. Upshot: the F/VF they arrive at is higher than the true value. Why? Because they used a simple method to answer a complex problem in exactly the same fashion that collectors make errors about scarcity: they rely on a simple measure: Gerber Scarcity to answer a complex problem when they should use a more complete / complex method: the CMSM (CentaurMan Scarcity Model).

 

Quit making it so complicated!

 

I get the grade from CGC.

The scarcity from Gerber.

The price from Overstreet.

 

[Scrooge]

Quit making it so complicated!

 

I get the grade from CGC.

The scarcity from Gerber.

The price from Overstreet.

 

 

I suffer from an odd illness: I use complex methods to solve simple problems.

[adamstrange]

But this whole Gerber fixation is so freaking newbie that it drives me nuts.

 

Until you publish or make available your spreadsheet, there are few convenient sources out there to go on other than Gerber and the CGC Census. So naturally Gerber carries some weight. But I doubt few, other than true novices to GA collecting, don't recognize its dated nature, and its fallibility.

 

Fair enough. I've given step-by-step instructions on how to develop an effective scarcity formula, but you're right, for simplicity Gerber is the obvious choice. I think most of us view Gerber the way we view Overstreet: terribly outdated but still interesting. Not many of us would use the Guide as our method for figuring out exactly what to pay for a book, and not many of us would use Gerber as our method for isolating which comics are scarce and which aren't. It's still interesting, obviously.

 

But to make a want list out of nothing but Gerber scarcity ratings just seems harmfully erratic. Although the comic market isn't as liquid as the stock market, it's still quite efficient, and comic prices have adjusted to Gerber ratings years ago. It seems like every other eBay auction lists the Gerber rating, and at this point the info seems more likely to encourage bad decision-making than good. We have so many more tools now that are much more accurate (if a bit less simple); it's like having a computer and an abacus and choosing to use the abacus because it takes too long to boot up the computer. Except that analogy isn't perfect because the abacus will actually give you correct data.

 

This was useful to illustrate one way that an experienced collector goes about making decisions. For many people, comics are a hobby and this makes it into work. There is is in fact nothing wrong with that, but then you can't necessarily be certain you'll know when you are seeing an opportunity of a lifetime or your only chance for 5 years before you see the next copy unless you do a certain amount of homework.

[Theagenes]

I have to say I really like Centaurman's method, because by taking into account sales figures and what people are willing to pay, it gives you a better idea of not just scarcity, but also availibilty. If I get some time this weekend I may try it out.

 

The importance of this distinction between scarcity and availability has already been discussed in one of these Gerber threads. One of the books that I'm always looking for, Famous Funnies 82, is a great example of this. It's listed as a Gerber 5 in one of the large group listings (i.e. 81-90=5) This seems reasonable, since it's Famous Funnies, so it should be plentiful and indeed the surrounding issues do come up relatively frequently. But 82 never comes up for sale. Only one copy has been slabbed, a 5.5, the Rockford copy. The only sales on Heritage are for that same Rockford copy and a low grade (G-) copy that was in a lot. Mine is the Lost Valley copy that I got from Al Stoltz's eBay store and that is the only copy that has sold on eBay in the last three years ("Funnies" is one of my regular keyword searches). Now this book can't be that rare - conventional wisdom would suggest it should be a Gerber 5 or 6, but as far as availabilty it behaves more like a 7 or 8. The only thing that I think can of to explain it, barring some sort of distribution problem with this issue, is that the Buck Rogers cover has made it desirable enough that owners don't want to part with it. One would never realize this just by looking at Gerber. That's why availability is so much more important than number of copies in existence.

 

BTW, here's my copy for those who haven't seen it:

 

 

[gifflefunk]

Something I wrote several years ago when I was researching "scarcity":

Comic Book Scarcity

[CentaurMan]

Excellent piece, if a bit inaccessible to math phobes. One quote at the end that jumped out to me:

 

In personal correspondence with Ernie back in 2000, he confessed that he had made some (scarcity) projections with little research and at times he completely fabricated values for genres he had less interest in, particularly the romance and funny animal titles.

[Silver Surfer]

I wish the print run data was available for some of these books, especially the superhero ones from the later 40's and mid 50's when sales were grinding to a hault. In the early 40's some of these books had a million copies printed but I'm sure that number was reduced drastically by the end of the decade.

[ciorac]

I have to say I really like Centaurman's method, because by taking into account sales figures and what people are willing to pay, it gives you a better idea of not just scarcity, but also availibilty. If I get some time this weekend I may try it out.

 

The importance of this distinction between scarcity and availability has already been discussed in one of these Gerber threads. One of the books that I'm always looking for, Famous Funnies 82, is a great example of this. It's listed as a Gerber 5 in one of the large group listings (i.e. 81-90=5) This seems reasonable, since it's Famous Funnies, so it should be plentiful and indeed the surrounding issues do come up relatively frequently. But 82 never comes up for sale. Only one copy has been slabbed, a 5.5, the Rockford copy. The only sales on Heritage are for that same Rockford copy and a low grade (G-) copy that was in a lot. Mine is the Lost Valley copy that I got from Al Stoltz's eBay store and that is the only copy that has sold on eBay in the last three years ("Funnies" is one of my regular keyword searches). Now this book can't be that rare - conventional wisdom would suggest it should be a Gerber 5 or 6, but as far as availabilty it behaves more like a 7 or 8. The only thing that I think can of to explain it, barring some sort of distribution problem with this issue, is that the Buck Rogers cover has made it desirable enough that owners don't want to part with it. One would never realize this just by looking at Gerber. That's why availability is so much more important than number of copies in existence.

 

BTW, here's my copy for those who haven't seen it:

 

 

 

That is a fantastic book! It just hit my want list!