How My Lack of Discipline and Faith Cost Me

[delekkerste]

I don't believe comics will continue exponential growth in the future, but these doom and gloom scenarios also seem highly unlikely.

 

I can guarantee you that comics won't "continue" exponential growth in the future because the ENTIRE HOBBY HAS BEEN IN A DECLINE FOR YEARS. The exponential growth phase ended at least a decade ago.

 

I have to strongly object to my views being called "extreme", "doom and gloom" and "Chicken Little" on this Board. If people would read the articles & letters column in CBG or the interviews in "Pulse" and other online fan websites, and people could put aside their fanboy optimism, they would realize that many industry pundits, executives, creators, editors, as well as FANS AND COLLECTORS share my so-called "fringe" views. What I am saying is not far different from what Maggie Thompson (CBG editor in chief), Chuck Rozanski, Rob Liefeld (just to name a varied few out of a very large sample set) have stated in the recent past. Do you think we have Free Comic Book Day because the hobby is in great shape? It is more like a desperate cry for help. Does anybody else find it troubling that the best-selling comic in any given month sells only around 125,000 copies and that the bar has fallen so low that 30,000 copies in pamphlet sales is considered a hit at any publisher besides Marvel?

 

Don't misunderstand me - I love comics. I read about 15 new titles a month, buy the occasional back issue, spend a good amount of money on original artwork, go to half a dozen Cons a year, read & post on this Board regularly, track the market and network with fellow collectors. It's a great artform and pastime. I intend to continue enjoying it while it lasts, but I'm not going to be Pollyannish about it and ignore the realities out there. I'm not saying people can't earn a living in the field or that all books are going down the toilet or anything like that - but when I see people advising collectors to pay up for books because you could have made 100,000% gains if they had bought 30 years ago, how can I or any thinking person just stand idly by and not comment?

 

Timing is everything in this world. Buying 10, 20 or 30 years ago before secular factors propelled the market to astronomical heights was the smart thing to do. Instead of driving while looking in the rear-view mirror, though, I would advise people to put aside their personal biases (which lean towards heavy optimism in most cases) and look forward. The future will not be a gilded road covered by rose petals. That said, I'm sure there will be huge opportunities created by the dislocation in the market/hobby that will come...at least for those who can break away from the bleating flock. I don't claim to be smart enough to have figured out yet what those will be, but I do know that the first step is to stop thinking like we're back in 1999 (or 1991, for that matter).

 

Non-linear change, my friends - those who anticipate it will become the next generation of "Captains of Industry" and those who don't...well, they will become fodder for the history bins. What is your destiny?

 

Gene

[jkrk]

Number One, the facts of this story dont add up. Comics stores didnt exist in the 60s as you know them today. The store owners who sold comics back then didnt ORDER comics when TOS 48 came out. They were sent to newsstands and luncheonettes and stationery stores by the magazine distributors who, if I have my facts straight, CHOSE which comics were sent to each customer. And being owners of stores for whom comics were one rackful of inventory (not the proverbial comics store owner/collector your story paints) I dont think all that many store owners were "hoarding" comics in the early 60s. By the late 60s hoarding was commonplace, but you are talking about TOS #48, thats what, 1964?

 

And....most of the hoarding from this time has been absorbed by the hobby by now with no ill effects on supply and demand. They were sold s you say for "astronomical prices" compared to cover prices.... Just as dealers sold thousands of X-Men #94s as it got hotter for higher and higher (crazy) prices until they ran out.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

I simply posted my recollections from the early 70's. Whether other comic stores similar to the one I went to existed in the 70's I don't know? You apparantly are an expert. I really didn't know what the distribution system like in the 70's? I made a bad assumption I guess believing a distributor delivered the copies. All I know is that I saw boxes of runs and remember the TOS 48 because I bought one of the books from the pile. I saw him go through some of the runs to find the book. You seem to be more focused on the manner the books were delivered, whether candy or rice chex was sold in the store so I am fascinated with your response (wait I better find out if Rice Chex was around in those days). Maybe I should have tried to discover the brand of gas used to deliver the books? Were they delivered or purchased by the store owner from a luncheonette? Obviously what you are saying is that the store I was in was unique for those days. Fine. I still wonder if I owned the shop and stored all those back issues How many would I have maintained 30 years later? My guess is as prices escalated I would have sold them all. I could be kicking myself today.

 

[awe4one]

Well said, Gene, well said indeed.....

 

 

Jim

[Bugaboo-migration]

You're all sheep. And I'm going to celebrate by spitting in the dried up eye sockets of your cold, dead bodies when I'm proven right.

[dad-migration]

I much prefer this quote from Benjamin Franklin's autobiography:

 

Thank you for proving my point. This "elderly gentleman" in the story grew up in a time of turmoil for America - when it was an English colony and then through a bloody revolution. He had never known America in a time of lasting wealth & prosperity and was simply extrapolating the recent past indefinitely into the future when, in fact, America's ascent to prosperity and ultimately global hegemony was just beginning (circa 1784 according to the cycle studies I have read).

 

Much as many on this Board are doing with the future course of comic book prices.

 

Gene

 

I agree with you; it is human folly to extrapolate the recent past into the

indefinite future. The classic example of this is the Tulip Mania in 17th century Holland as chronicled in Charles Mackay's 1841 book "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds"

 

e.g., see: http://www.litrix.com/madraven/madne004.htm

 

(see any parallels with people paying high multiples of guide for

CGC 9.6s, 9.8s, etc. because of the "rarity"?)

 

Having conceded that, I will make the point that I am not extrapolating

the recent past into the future. Quite the opposite, I am recognizing a long-term trend. Until the past year or so, I have not followed comics since 1971.

 

 

[Bugaboo-migration]

I agree with you; it is human folly to extrapolate the recent past into the

indefinite future. The classic example of this is the Tulip Mania in 17th century Holland as chronicled in Charles Mackay's 1841 book "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds"

 

e.g., see: http://www.litrix.com/madraven/madne004.htm

That is interesting. However, I prefer the following quote from Carl Spackler: "...And I said, Hey Lama, how 'bout a little something, you know, for the effort? And he says, there won't be any money, but when you die, on your deathbed you will receive total consciousness So I got that going for me, which is nice."

[delekkerste]

Having conceded that, I will make the point that I am not extrapolating

the recent past into the future. Quite the opposite, I am recognizing a long-term trend.

 

You seem to be under the mistaken impression that there are only two trends - the short-term and the long-term, when in fact there are trends at many different degrees of magnitude. There are everything from the shortest term trends (what did the CGC market do this week and how many new comics were sold on Wednesday) to the biggest-picture trend (where is the comic book medium/hobby/market in its overall phase of development since the start of the Golden Age). Actually, trend implies linearity, so to be more precise, I should say there are many different degrees of cycles.

 

Sure, at one level of trend, comics have gone more or less straight up for 30 years - tell me some information I don't already know and that I can use to gain an edge in the market. On the other hand, I have presented what I believe is a very plausible explanation for why this boom occurred and why we are probably close to an inflection point in the cycle. For an overview of this thesis, check out my "Me" page on eBay:

 

http://members.ebay.com/aboutme/de-lekkerste/

 

Charles Mackay's 1841 book "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds"

 

I find it extraordinary for anyone to have read Mackay and still cling to the arguments you are making. You know, the Nasdaq pretty much went straight up from its inception in 1971 through March 2000 (with a couple of small hiccups, just like the comic market)...bet that looked like a slam-dunk "long-term established trend" as well. A very stark reminder that the trend is only your friend...until it ends.

 

Gene

[dam60]

Hey Dave (DAM60, if you're reading this) - when was the last time you saw a kid or teen in Time Machine or Midtown Comics? If you're like me, the answer would be never

 

Sorry I'm a bit late to the party, but I would have to agree that for the record there are never any kids in Time Machine (my personal shop), Midtown Comics, Cosmic Comics, etc. NYC has a bunch of comic shops all populated by college kids and adults. I'm 24 and usually I am the youngest one in the shops.

 

Here's a bit of anecdotal evidence - I went to see Spy Kids 2 with my Catholic Little Brother today and before the movie started (we had gotten there an hour early) we went to Forbidden Planet - a comic shop right across the street. He was the only kid in there (he's 12) and he looked at their video games and yu-gi-oh cards while I was flipping through a JSA trade. He liked the Hulk movie (why, I don't know) but he could care less about the hulk comics or trades and to Forbidden Planet's credit, they have an ample supply and selection of both.

 

IMO, the intellectual property is to valuable to not continue to do something with the characters and I don't think that the pamphlet will be obsolete in 10 years but I do not think that the back issue market will ever be stronger than it is now unless we get new readers and collectors in the hobby and that starts with the pre-teens and teens.

 

DAM

[dam60]

I agree with you; it is human folly to extrapolate the recent past into the

indefinite future. The classic example of this is the Tulip Mania in 17th century Holland as chronicled in Charles Mackay's 1841 book "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds"

 

e.g., see: http://www.litrix.com/madraven/madne004.htm

That is interesting. However, I prefer the following quote from Carl Spackler: "...And I said, Hey Lama, how 'bout a little something, you know, for the effort? And he says, there won't be any money, but when you die, on your deathbed you will receive total consciousness So I got that going for me, which is nice."

 

Bug, you are truly the man. I LOVE that quote! And Caddyshack is one of my all time favorites, especially having caddied when I was younger!

[jbud73]

And.................. the intellectuals are off and at it again.

 

Well there are a polarity of views between the naysayers and the eternal optimists, I'm sure the truth lies somewhere inbetween if it is decernible at all.

 

For the record (and please feel free to critique) I think that:

 

1. The industry is in the position of a net loss of people in the hobby. I agree that the 80 somethings are back (hey I'm one of them), much in the same way as the baby bommers came back which, when combined - IE. baby boomer childhood readers, plus Genx childhood readers + their nostalgic returns = the fairly uninterupted growth of the hobby.

 

However the Genx nostalgic return is nowhere near the quantity of the BB return, plus the BB's are dying (fact of life). Add to this and I'm sorry but its true the minimal youth attracted to the hobby, and you have a commodity that is not renewing itself at even remotely close to a 1:1 ratio of return. This probably has a greater impact on new issues sales in the present. I don't see any reason to doubt Delek's estimates, but the situation will have back issues impact sooner or later. Very simple demographic analysis would leave anyone to conclude the aformentioned more or less.

 

2. Points illustrated in #1 are true given the current status and this does not allow for any unforseen new attractees to the hobby. If the movies have a sustained impact, or some other form of comic publishing IE Internet or something else creates significant interest, then the pamphlet could surge. You see I think that the pamphlet may be a victim of technological and other societal change. The gentleman in the Franklin story lost $$$ because he underestimated the impact of change, which is fine as long as you are on the right side of that impact, I think comics may be on the wrong side.

 

3. Ironically I beleive that it may be hardest to anticipate change for the people who form the backbone of the hobby IE alot of people on the boards. We are probably far to immersed in the hobby to see influence that we cannot previously account for based on known trends. This could make all of these posts including this one the worst gauge of the future of comic collecting.

 

4. I think comics will always be collectable and earlier GA stuff may achieve truly antique art status. Maybe that what will happen as the older GA SA stuff becomes elitely collectable, but fails to bridge the gap to new grass roots iflux in the hobby and comics go the way of the art world. Sad thing, though I'm sure that the speculators and investors would love that. I can just see it now. A dealer picks up a middleages Gentlemen somewhere in Upstate NY, drives him into the city, they walk into a gallery. "Looking for something for the Den?" Yes Yes something abstract, I hear you deal in pamphlet art"

 

"Yes we have a few nice pieces this way"

 

"Hmm interesting, how much for the Red One, what is it called? Spiderman No More?"

 

"Oh that's a fine piece, brilliant use of color don't you think?"

 

"Yes what's that writing at the top is that the artist, CGC?"

 

"No, no that the grade of the artwork, pamphlet art is all graded, this one is very rare indeed, one of the highest at 9.6"

 

"So you mean there's more than one copy, I had wanted an original, not a print"

 

"Well we have whats referred to as a File Copy, its right this way"

 

"Oh I see Stan Lee, thats the artist then?"

"No, actually I believe thats the writer."

 

"The writer? I can't see and text?"

 

"Well its incased on the inside, but you can't open it to read."

 

"Very interesting, thats fine I only want to hang it in my study and I hear pamphlet art is all the rage now, my boss has a piece called "Green Lantern" its one of a set."

 

"Yes, yes we have a few pieces of that, would you like to see them?"

 

"No.no this ones fine, I like the red coloring kind of brooding, but it looks to be more ragged than the other and it says 5.0, why is that?"

 

"Well these file copies were not preserved as well in some cases."

 

"Hmm well I want the original, if this is as close as it gets in pamplete art Ill take it."

 

"Fine choice, that will be $578,000 a real bargin for this piece."

 

"Thank you I will have my banking institution make the arrangements."

 

"Can you tell me a little bit about this spider fellow, wasn't there a movie about him once?"

 

"Yes, yes I believe there was" ......................................

[THE_BEYONDER]

I can just see it now. A dealer picks up a middleages Gentlemen somewhere in Upstate NY, drives him into the city, they walk into a gallery. "Looking for something for the Den?" Yes Yes something abstract, I hear you deal in pamphlet art"

 

"Yes we have a few nice pieces this way"

 

"Hmm interesting, how much for the Red One, what is it called? Spiderman No More?"

 

"Oh that's a fine piece, brilliant use of color don't you think?"

 

"Yes what's that writing at the top is that the artist, CGC?"

 

"No, no that the grade of the artwork, pamphlet art is all graded, this one is very rare indeed, one of the highest at 9.6"

 

"So you mean there's more than one copy, I had wanted an original, not a print"

 

"Well we have whats referred to as a File Copy, its right this way"

 

"Oh I see Stan Lee, thats the artist then?"

"No, actually I believe thats the writer."

 

"The writer? I can't see and text?"

 

"Well its incased on the inside, but you can't open it to read."

 

"Very interesting, thats fine I only want to hang it in my study and I hear pamphlet art is all the rage now, my boss has a piece called "Green Lantern" its one of a set."

 

"Yes, yes we have a few pieces of that, would you like to see them?"

 

"No.no this ones fine, I like the red coloring kind of brooding, but it looks to be more ragged than the other and it says 5.0, why is that?"

 

"Well these file copies were not preserved as well in some cases."

 

"Hmm well I want the original, if this is as close as it gets in pamplete art Ill take it."

 

"Fine choice, that will be $578,000 a real bargin for this piece."

 

"Thank you I will have my banking institution make the arrangements."

 

"Can you tell me a little bit about this spider fellow, wasn't there a movie about him once?"

 

"Yes, yes I believe there was" ......................................

 

[dam60]

Where we are now in our evolution as a nation, comics are really our mythology and this was formed through an abundance of readers which transcended the print medium into radio broadcasts, tv shows, movies, toys, video games, etc.

 

No one is saying that in 50 years people will be like "Spider-Man?? Who's that?" but rather that the medium might move away from the printed pamphlet altogether. The next logical assertion would then be that the back issue market would collapse.

 

What I personally would like to see would be some ideas on how to attract new readers. Here are a few that have been rehashed to death, but their rehashing only lends credence to their validity:

 

1 - More Done in One issues

a 12 part Hush storyline is detrimental to attracting new readers as the contuinity factor won't be there unless you start with the first part

2 - Cheaper comics

I don't buy many new issues at all anymore because at $3, I could buy a G copy of a SA batman. What would you rather have?

3 - Proliferation of comics to pre-teens

Crossgen is doing a great program that I read about in CBG with a "learn to read" initiative in schools. Props to them!

4 - Better Marketing

The infusion of TPBs into book stores isa good start . . .

[dam60]

FYI:

 

Some cool crossgen initiatives:

 

http://www.newsarama.com/forums/showthread.php?s=&threadid=4750

[THE_BEYONDER]

I think that there should only be ONE book for each character, and there should be PERFECT CONTINUITY. Spidey should only EXIST in ASM, and in his appearances in other character's books. If DD makes an appearance in ASM, then Spidey should definately appear in the DD book.

 

Will the REAL Spider-man please STAND UP?

[justiceleaguer]

Continuity??? Whats that?

[jbud73]

Continuity walks a very fine line. Alot of these characters are a part of social culture because of their hisory which was built up through referenced contuniuty. Hush is a great exaple, it creates a buzz within the comic industry because of its continuity implications, much the same as Miller's Year One. However, I agree it make turn off new readers, then again it may turn on new readers to back issue fr story, hasn't that been a trend the industry banks on?

 

Its a fine line and I thnk that there need to be a mix of both continuity and one issue concept based stories. But I agree the industry needs to stop, especially the publishers, the in-fighting and do its combined best to ensure survival for all. I wish them the best and will be here to support their success and discusses their failures. Thats really what I think its all about.

[justiceleaguer]

Tell me, how many of todays relatively "young" titles do you honestly believe will ever hit the 100 issue milestone, muchless 200, 300 or 400. I hate to say it, but other than the supes, bats, and "re-numbered" marvel olds, i highly doubt any more books are likely to have that type of continuity. Its sad really.

 

 

Sal

[DiceX]

Tell me, how many of todays relatively "young" titles do you honestly believe will ever hit the 100 issue milestone, muchless 200, 300 or 400. I hate to say it, but other than the supes, bats, and "re-numbered" marvel olds, i highly doubt any more books are likely to have that type of continuity. Its sad really.

 

 

Sal

 

I heard that Youngblood #100 is scheduled to release in March of 10,001.

Although it may be delayed a few hundred years due to the Y10K bug.

 

However, the same number of people will give a then that do now.

[jbud73]

Tell me, how many of todays relatively "young" titles do you honestly believe will ever hit the 100 issue milestone, muchless 200, 300 or 400. I hate to say it, but other than the supes, bats, and "re-numbered" marvel olds, i highly doubt any more books are likely to have that type of continuity. Its sad really.

 

 

Sal

 

Some of the Vertigo stuff like 100 Bullets and Hellblazer is at 180ish now. Course 100 bullets is Brain Azzarelleo (er can never spell it) brain child, if he ever leaves....... Maybe that the test of a comic, when the original creative team leaves can it still flourish and for how long.

[ubiquiti]

Honestly - don't you think that the short term future of comics rests a great deal in the economy?

Isn't the booming economy the reason the industry pulled out of it's tailspin in the late 90's? People had tons of disposable income, haarkened back to the 80's and reinvigorated the back issue market, and started buying more monthly comics.

I honestly think if the economy snaps back in the next 2-3 years, we could see 1998 or 1999 again - but that is highly unlikely(that the economy will return back to 1999 form).

I think right now as there is FAR less disposable income out there and it is continuing to shrink as unemployment levels increase; this will only lead to even lower realized prices in the back issue market in the near future with a few "super-hot" exceptions.

As far as new readership goes - I'm not sure how much that effects the short term future(10 years). Most of the people buying comics right now(back issues and new comics alike) are people our age - 27-35 years old, and we will gradually become wealthier (as a whole age group-wise). Now past 10 years, your guess is as good as mine - something tells me golf and kids/grandkids will likely be more important to me than buying comics, and with younger kids not buying like we did...yeah, that is certainly a problem. How much I have no idea, but there will certainly be some negative impact.