Is Daredevil 168 the next Hulk 181?

[seank]

Just like the subject line says, is Daredevil 168 the next Hulk 181? The book seems unsinkable, with NM prices consistently at 3x guide and even Fine copies consistently going for 1.5x guide. Will we see it hit $1,000 or over in the next seven to ten years?

[THE_BEYONDER]

It would be easier to ask:

 

 

 

[rob_react]

For starters... I'd love for you to be right. That's easily one of my five favorite books and I've still got a nice little stash beyond even my personal copy.

 

Now for some discussion...

 

I've sold a lot of copies of that book, and I can tell you from personal experience it's at least somewhat "sinkable." It still sells, instantly, for more than guide across the board, but there's no doubt it's down significantly from last year.

 

Example, I sold two CGC NM- copies about a year ago this month for around $200 apiece. That was with a significantly lower guide value. Post movie-hype, but with the higher guide value, 9.2s have averaged around $120. Check GPA and you'll see a similar story for other grades.

 

 

[supapimp]

her's one for sale DD 168 CGC NM 9.4

[joe_collector]

No way, this book is being carried by the news of an Elektra movie in the works. If that tidbit hadn't come up, the horrid Daredevil movie would have tanked this book like it did the rest of the Miller run.

[delekkerste]

Will we see it hit $1,000 or over in the next seven to ten years?

 

It's a great book, one of my top 25 faves of all-time, but the answer is an emphatic NO. There are a ridiculous number of high grade copies out there and Elektra, despite her exposure from the movie, is still a 2nd-tier character. At the top of the 2nd tier, perhaps, but still 2nd tier. The book came out in 1981, so if you're looking for moneyed nostalgic buyers to buy, it'll mostly be 1980s kids, who have largely come of age/money recently (accounting for much of the price rise in the past few years). The older generations who made tons of money being in their prime earning years during the 1980s and 1990s either have no interest, focusing instead on GA/SA, or have bought already.

 

Assuming a 9.4 sells for $200 these days, to reach $1000 in 7 years would require a 25.8% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) or a 17.5% CAGR to reach it in 10 years. We aren't living in the 1980s or 1990s anymore - to expect that kind of return on any asset class is simply backward-looking and unrealistic. I continue to argue that comic prices, adjusted for inflation, will be lower 10 years from now than they are today. Of course, there is a good deal of uncertainty about that statement, but, I don't think there's much uncertainty that we won't see $1000 on DD 168 in the next decade. The only way I can see that price level happening is if inflation gets out of control - but even then, I am confident that the inflation-adjusted price in 10 years will be less than $1000 in 2003 dollars.

 

Gene

[supapimp]

welcome back vince! make sure you hang around a little longer this time.

[joe_collector]

The insanity of the new CGC Label brought me back, but I'm not sure how long I'm staying.

[ubiquiti]

I liken this book to Tomb of Dracula 10...

There are factors that balance the 2 out - Blade is a 3rd tier character - but TOD 10 was from the early 70s with a much lower print run. Both have been helped by movie hype. Both also seem to fetch over guide in VF and above and can actually hold to guide in VG and below(not many books can accomplish that!)

Will EITHER be the next hulk 181?

No way. In order for that to happen, Electra would have to become significantly moe popular than she is now, AND have a couple more movies under her belt. In 5-10 years, after there are 750 or more NM-...sorry, 9.2 and higher graded books of this - it probably will not command the prices it does now - to guide, at least.

 

[THE_BEYONDER]

I think ASM 136 is more likely to be "the next Hulk 181", than DD 168.....

[ubiquiti]

you serious?

[blowout]

I would say most definately NO.

 

Not so much because Elektra is less improtant than Wolverine (she is) but because this is an 80's book. The supply is HUGE and demand can never hope to match the supply to a degree that will send the price up much higher. People say there are a lot of Hulk 181's out there...well that number pales against the number of DD 168's.

[rob_react]

I liken this book to Tomb of Dracula 10...

There are factors that balance the 2 out - Blade is a 3rd tier character - but TOD 10 was from the early 70s with a much lower print run. Both have been helped by movie hype. Both also seem to fetch over guide in VF and above and can actually hold to guide in VG and below(not many books can accomplish that!)

 

 

DD 168 sells above guide in lower grades as well. Every copy I've sold on eBay, in any grade, has gone for above guide.

 

One thing to note, and I'm not arguing that it will be the next Hulk 181, is that DD 168 is MUCH more difficult to find in better than 9.4 than it's age, and instant popularity (it was hoarded) would indicate. The vast majority of copies have black printers ink either running across the cover or smudging along the spine. I've owned dozens of copies and maybe five have been clean.

 

The census actually plays this out:

 

DD 168

Out of 584 submissions

Near Mint/Mint 9.8 1 0 0 0 1

Near Mint + 9.6 38 0 0 0 38

Near Mint 9.4 128 0 0 1 129

 

For comparison's sake:

hulk 181

Out of 1425

Mint 9.9 1 0 0 0 1

Near Mint/Mint 9.8 5 0 0 0 5

Near Mint + 9.6 54 0 0 1 55

Near Mint 9.4 112 1 0 7 120

 

TOD 10

Out of 114

Near Mint/Mint 9.8 3 0 0 0 3

Near Mint + 9.6 12 0 0 1 13

Near Mint 9.4 23 0 0 0 23

 

Daredevil 158

Out of 353

Near Mint/Mint 9.8 7 0 0 0 7

Near Mint + 9.6 33 1 0 0 34

Near Mint 9.4 75 0 0 1 76

 

[ubiquiti]

Good info..

The only difference is - I would be willing to bet all the TOD 10 9.8s that are out there likely are now graded. Since DD 168s were hoarded I would be willing to bet there are probably at least a few more out there - but i could be wrong.

Take 9.8s out of the picture, and the 2 books are nearly identical(with DD 168 having a slightly higher % of 9.4s and TOD 10 a higher % of 9.6s) wit hthe exception being there are about 4 times as many 168s cgc graded(which makes sense considering there were probably 3 times as many copies printed)

I think in another year(depending on when the next DD/Elektra movie comes out) these two will be almost identical price-wise.

[THE_BEYONDER]

you serious?

 

I think ASM 136 has a much brighter future than DD 168. Just my opinion....

[ubiquiti]

huh........

Well...I guess it has more room to grow.

[blowout]

I think ASM 136 has a much brighter future than DD 168. Just my opinion....

 

Why? There's no first app in ASM #136, its a great book for sure, but really just a desperate attempt to revive a dead villain. Nothing new.

[rob_react]

... many 168s cgc graded(which makes sense considering there were probably 3 times as many copies printed)

 

DD was a crappy selling title at that point. It wasn't even monthly...

 

More info (to prove that I buy all these reference books for a reason):

 

The Standard Catalog lists the circulation statement for DD 168 as 130,239.

 

They don't have circ. numbers for Tomb of Dracula.

 

For comparison's sake (I'm not sure how much we can surmise from this), when TOD 10 came out Amazing Spider-Man had a circulation of 273,204, Avengers was at 183,039, Captain America was at 175,738, Daredevil was at 168,379, Fantastic Four was at 218,330, Hulk was at 187,318, Thor was at 195,239, and X-Men (which was in reprints) was at 127,663.

 

They do have circ. numbers for Hulk 181- 202,592.

[THE_BEYONDER]

I think ASM 136 has a much brighter future than DD 168. Just my opinion....

 

Why? There's no first app in ASM #136, its a great book for sure, but really just a desperate attempt to revive a dead villain. Nothing new.

 

1st appearance of HARRY OSBORN as the Green Goblin. If you think that the DD movie and the upcoming Electra movie will increase the demand for DD 168, wait until "THE GREEN GOBLIN LIVES AGAIN!".

 

Harry vowed vengeance against Spider-man at the end of the movie. Doc Ock is in Spidey2( So is John Jameson; get your ASM 124's). Spidey3 will probably be Venom. Spidey4 will be the Green Goblin. In the next two movies, Harry's hatred will be explored, and the reason Harry decided to follow in his father's footsteps will be explained.

 

 

 

[ubiquiti]

Okay - I wasn't around back then, but I think it is safe to say TOD would have had less than cap, but probably more than the X-Men reprints.

So I guess I was off on the number of copies comparison - I honestly thought once Miller started sales began to take off - I would have pegged a print run of about 300K on DD 168. Goes to show you what I know.

But even saying that print runs were similar plus or minus 10,000, comics were regarded much different in 1970/71 than in 1980(when the Byrne Claremont X-Men run started bringing a lot of new readers into the fold and "collecting" for $ was beginning to really take off), and I am certain MANY were tossed around 1977-80 as kids moved out, went to college, got married and mom and dad pitched them.

Doesn't matter - because I still think these 2 books are going to continue to perform similarly for the duration - or at least the next 5 years or so, with TOD 10 possibly dropping off at some point.