THE CGC CRASH OF 10/2002

[doc_sampson-migration]

hooray hooray hooray!!!!

the crash is here the crash is here!!!

i can buy 1960-1966 cgc 9.4's and 9.2's for overstreet nm guide

 

yeeeeeeaaaaaaahh right! i wish.

 

where are all the 9.4 1960-66 marvels and d.c's being unloaded on ebay and going cheap? it seems like 90% of the books on ebay are reruns, relists of the same cgc material- anytime anything fresh or new thats 9.4 its still getting $$$, maybe not as crazy as 2 years ago but still decent

 

the stuff thats died in the is a lot of the 1970 -1980's common non key 9.4 stuff and yes most of the 1966 up also- these have always been plentiful- cgcd or not cgc'd. theres tons of that [!@#%^&^] out there- just look at comgeeks auctions- how many copies of invaders 1 9.6 , champions 1 9.6 , spidey 150-200 9.6 are constantly being auctioned??

 

where were all of you in the early 80's when early marvels were dead?? did the entire hobby die??

 

what about the 1970's and 80's when silver dc was dead, actually the only boom in dc i ever remember is the early 90's when B+B and SHOWCASE was red hot when mike goldman fouind that real nice run of B+B

 

what about the xmen 1 and death of superman and valiant crashes?? this hobby has been going for 30 years plus and has gone thru many crashes

 

the good stuff thats tough in grade is still, and will always have a market at over guide

 

viz recent sales

 

jim 112 9.2 $800 and $900

strange tales ann2 9.2 $2750

jim 90 9.0 $1000

jim 89 9.2 $2000 part trade

tos 57 9.2 curator $800

tos 54 9.2 $580

tos 54 9.4 $800

JLA 9 9.4 $3500

dd 7 9.4 $4000

dd 7 9.2 $2025

JLA 21 9.4 $2000

[comicinvestor-migration]

Why don't you stop rationalizing the CGC COMIC BOOK CRASH! and look at the market as a whole. Picking an issue here and there to demonstrate CGC sales are healthy says a lot of about your powers of comprehension.

 

Yeah, the stock market is super-healthy because my portfolio rose yesterday. Everyone buy real estate, since I sold a single property at a profit!!

 

Man, you should volunteer to teach MBA courses at Harvard; you're a shoo-in for tenure.

[doc_sampson-migration]

did you read my entire post??

 

now to spell it out to you mr MENSA president /comic investor:

 

i do agree the cgc post 1966 market is dying in the (re read my post)

 

the pre 1966 cgc 9.4 market as evidenced by more than ONE sale is still healthy, altho not insane like it was 2 years ago

 

i agree there is a DEFINITE overall downturn in cgc prices but the good stuff will always be the good stuff

 

hey, im buying any cgc 9.4 ff 1's and fantasy 15's for nm overstreet, any sellers. how about you sell me your copies comic investor

 

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHA!!!

[aardvark88]

Who is seller viz? Vinnie Zurzolo of Metropolis?

[drbanner]

C'mon guys, please take it to the Official Market Crash Thread. Alternatively, you could start an "Official Market is Strong" thread for the optimists...

[Crowzilla]

Viz must be ComicLink as that is where the JIM 90 was sold.

 

[delekkerste]

the stuff thats died in the is a lot of the 1970 -1980's common non key 9.4

stuff and yes most of the 1966 up also-

 

Well, congratu-fricking-lations - you've just proclaimed the death of 90+% of the

comic market. But all is well because the remaining <10% is apparently doing

really well, though not as well as 2 years ago, as you said. So that actually makes

like 1% of the market still hitting new highs and everything else down from many

multiples of guide to guide/small multiples of guide.

 

Call it what you will, it's a crash by any other name. And I'm not even saying the

crash has arrived full-scale - I've always said this has the potential to take 2-3

years, slowly grind the remaining bulls into hamburger.

 

The market won't bottom until all of you bulls sound like me and CI. At which

point I'll be buying with both hands and telling you to do so as well, for which I

will be jeered again, just as I was this summer for suggesting that prices might

not be sustainable (understatement of the year, so far).

 

Gene

[comicinvestor-migration]

Well, congratu-fricking-lations - you've just proclaimed the death of 90+% of the

comic market.

 

Thanks for stating what I assumed would be an obvious fact based on my previous post. There still seem to be "investors" grasping at straws, highlighting the few and far between good sales, while ignoring the rest of the CGC market.

 

I've also been keeping track of early Silver and the overall prices now are certainly not up (the majority are down) from their all-time highs. Where are these amazing price spikes and profits from pre-66 comics compared to their market highs?

 

I also wonder what these "soon to be hamburger" bulls will say with the axe finally falls and everything drops?

[delekkerste]

I also wonder what these "soon to be hamburger" bulls will say with the axe

finally falls and everything drops?

 

The reactions are likely to be mixed, ranging from anger to denial to sadness:

 

"I'm in the market for the long-haul...or at least until my creditors seize my

collection."

 

"Damn You ________________!!!" (insert: BlazingBob, Clobberintime,

Nic Cage, CGC, CI, De-Lekkerste, or whoever else you want to blame)

 

"I knew all along that that prices would come down. No, really, I did."

 

"Crash? What crash? 1 or 2 CGC auctions hit a new high last month.

Market seems healthy to me."

 

"No really, why are you calling this 80% decline in Bronze prices

and 50% decline in SA prices a crash? It's just an adjustment to more

realistic values. Crash, yeah, right..."

 

"At least the raw market is going gangbusters. What? The prices

have fallen because CGC prices have fallen to Guide levels? I did not

know that. Did you know that, Ed? But I thought the raw market was

totally uncorrelated to the slabbed market..."

 

"Gene, I know I disparaged and mocked you endlessly on the

CGC boards, but I could really use a loan...I can't pay my mortgage

with these CGC books and liquidity on eBay has dried up..."

 

 

 

 

[comicinvestor-migration]

Now that was absolutely hilarious and you really had me physically laughing. Especially that last one. Reminds me of a quote from an Overstreet Advisor (in response to sellers asking astronomical prices during the early 90's) that went something like

 

"You'll be cold, hungry and alone if you wait for funny books to go pay the bills for you".

[scottish]

I'm torn between response #1 and #3.

[clobberintime]

I think those cgc holders are pretty tough and water tight, so if the end is near, I think I have enough to build a small house with. And like I said before, if this is the beginning of the end, I intend to see it go out with one heck of a Viking funeral bonfire! In my line of work when things are bad, things are good! Since being in private practice, I have done better the last 4 months than ever before - so let's get this crash going already. I wanted that Suspense 54 and 57 last night but someone forgot to tell those poor fools not to bid so much!

[murph0]

Yeh who would've figured in the crashing market a ToS 57 9.2 could go for 750..maybe the crash is selective to certain books only?

 

Brian

[Kevin Boyd]

They obviously forgot to read Gene and CI's evaluations.

 

However they've always had an exit clause: "truly hard to find books that are rarely seen on e-bay will continue to do well."

 

Kev

[comicartfan]

While I agree that I have seen some record lows of books being sold, books that were commanding totals in the same area, I think that the emphasis has only shifted to other books...mainly DD, Hulk and Bronze age keys. I think that the market has stablized and that is giving a false hope to those collectors who feel that books were unabtainable at their current value. As far as dealers go (the main one who influence what books are sold, NOT Ebay!!!) , a ASM 122 9.4 will be around 750.00-900.00 - it won't all of a sudden be a $300.00 book because one sold on Ebay for that amount one day. - To site rare examples of books that went for huge amounts is also bogus. JLA 9 9.4 is one of a kind.....so to say that it's worth 3500 is not accurate.....just what it happened to bring in that day. Sullypython bought his GL 76 9.4 for 1600....yet the last two on ebay sold for 1700 and 2400 (reserve not met), so what's the REAL price of that book ? Considering the so-called fall of CGC stronghold, then we are now in a bear market and that the next GL 76 9.4 sold will be say....1100 I THINK NOT !!! - Books are going for no less than prior, the problem is that a few in-demand books have sold for decent prices, high profile books that garner alot of attention. If I bought a DD 88 9.4 for say, 250.00...then sold it for 125.00 on ebay, would there be all this attention about the collapse of the market ??!! - NO !! Because John Q. Public wasn't watching my auction....But if I had a DD 7 9.4, then every comic-phile in the free world would be watching the outcome....I think that this is not "trend" ....just a few auctions.....

[comicinvestor-migration]

There's no "exit clause" and if you funny guys know that even in the worst of a bust, there are always a select few that maintain value or even increase slightly. By your truly bizarre definitions, we've never, ever had a crash in the history of the known world, since at any point even the lowliest stock might rise a buck, or a rookie could get hot and jack demand for his sportscard, or a movie could come out to drive demand fora comic, etc.

 

I'm talking about the market as a whole (as in the CGC 5000 Index), not what one pinhead maxxed his credit card on because a dealer told him it's hot.

 

I'd suggest that you "the CGC market is better than ever" guys had better buy a new box of straws to grasp, since that's basically all you've got.

[Kevin Boyd]

Hey CI, in the "official" thread I admitted that I was wrong and you were right, things are not as good as they've every been, at least for CGC graded moderns.

 

On the other hand, there's a flaw in every theory, as there's always going to be examples that contradict "analyzer's" trends. I agree that even in the midst of a bust, some things do continue to perform well and that's what I mean by "exit clause".

 

If you take offense to that definition, then bite me and pass the straws.

 

Kev

[comicinvestor-migration]

I wasn't really replying to you per say, but more cgcfan. I just took a ton of abuse when things were wild 'n wooly in CGC-land, but now that the market is turning towards exactly what I predicted, people seem to pull random sales out of their butt to somehow disprove that CGC prices (on average) have tumbled quite a bit.

 

In other words, give the Devil his due!

[FlyingDonut]

Not to put too fine of a point on it, and realizing that this may put me in a tough spot, but Gene and CI are 100% correct. CGC prices on:

 

1) relatively common

2) 9.6 and below

3) post-1966

4) non in any stretch of the imagination key books

 

have plummeted over the past 6 months. There is clear data to show this - for example, my CGC 9.6 copy of Amazing Spider-Man 117 OWW just sold for $118.70, which is half of what one sold for in April.

 

And, in their defense, as the Cassandras of the board, all of the books that everybody shows as being examples of how the prices aren't dropping most definitely do NOT meet the first three categories. Green Lantern 74, TOS 49, etc. etc. are keys! Look at prices of Amazing Spider-Man, X-Men, etc. They are falling through the floor from where they were last summer.