Do you think Hulk #181 is currently overvalued?

[blowout]

And you think it's better to sink a few thousand in a 9.6 or 9.8 than a few hundred in a 9.4? As the numbers in the census increase, what's going to be hurt the most? It will take far more books in the census to hurt a 9.4 than it will a 9.8.

 

Of course it isn't better, but your earlier post suggested 9.2 and 9.4 were good bets for the future, NOT that they would be the best books to limit your loses on. I was simply saying that these kind of books will not rise in value at CGC prices, but they may at raw prices.

 

As the numbers in the census increase, what's going to be hurt the most?

 

So now you ARE saying that CGC books are a bad investment all around?

[DiceX]

Of course it isn't better, but your earlier post suggested 9.2 and 9.4 were good bets for the future, NOT that they would be the best books to limit your loses on. I was simply saying that these kind of books will not rise in value at CGC prices, but they may at raw prices.

 

I never ment it to be taken that way.

I'm just saying, when the market corrects itself, the 9.2 to 9.4 range will be *less* effected.

The "Highest Graded" market gets a frequent smack in the face.

All it takes is one book to do the damage.

 

So now you ARE saying that CGC books are a bad investment all around?

 

No.

Paying "Stupid Money" for a high graded CGC book is a bad investment.

Buying a CGC graded book affordably is a good investment.

Buying a raw book and getting it graded yourself, is not too bad either.

 

I buy far more raw books than I do graded ones.

I buy books in as nice of condition as I can find or afford.

If I end up getting it graded, it's only costing me a grading fee.

 

There are plenty of high grade books out there that are not in a slab.

[BronzeBruce13]

I'll "try" and end my remarks on this thread with the 2 following posts... and let others have the last word.

 

Much of what has been discussed on this thread, on both sides of the debate, has merit in my view. The topic is more about Bronze Keys in general now (rather than Hulk 181) and that is what I'm addressing (we all heard enough about Hulk 181).

 

As far as High Grade Bronze Key hoards (particularly the early half of the era)...

To this point (after 3+ years of CGC) with a few exceptions, we have not seen a great deal of evidence of "stash-produced" books impacting the high grade bronze segment of the market that I have noticed. Whatever impact there has been, has certainly not been anywhere as much as I would expect given all the information I've been asked to consider and accept.

 

Although I'm clearly not doubting there are "multiple copy stashes" out there (I know there are some as mentioned and some that did surface too), I feel that it simply remains to be seen what they'll represent when/if they are ever brought to market. I'm speaking in regards to quality/condition (eventual CGC grade) of such stashes that are "thought" to be out there... as well as the ones that people like Vince are aware of first hand (i.e.. friends with 25+ copies of #1's/keys, etc.). I'm not so sure they will grade as highly as the owners think... as much more frequently than not, most collectors "over-evaluate" the condition of their books (whether 1 copy or 20). I just don't think "too many" collectors were ultra-carefully handling/protecting/storing their books to the degree necessary to get a high percentage of 9.6/9.8 from a lot. As I understand... grading/condition awareness was not quite as strict going back as it is now and even the use of boards, etc. was not as commonplace either. (this topic has been discussed fully in other threads)

 

Anyway, I can accept a steady 9.2 to 9.4 influx, some 9.6, and occasional higher grades emerging from these lots when/if they surface, but until I see differently... that's my impression "now". I'm not suggesting all lots were treated roughly either, there are obviously careful collectors and subsequently HG gems out there, but I have my doubts that there are as many "stashes" that will produce 9.6/9.8 quality books as some indicate.

 

I think there is an important distinction to be made as well in terms of "what type of key" was hoarded. There are books that were clearly identified as candidates to grab multiples of for various reasons... and those that went "under the radar" and/or were limited. We all have seen evidence of this, and many respected long-term collector/dealers confirm that... many #1's from the mid-70's on (and some late 60's titles too) were certainly speculated on and bought in quantity. Other keys that were not quickly identified, or became keys later on, (before opportunity to grab unhandled copies in bulk)... were not obtained similarly are likely not out there in HG in nearly the same numbers.

[BronzeBruce13]

There are still a few other considerations that make me question whether or not these stashes will impact the Bronze Market "as severely" as some feel they might... should they arrive.

 

Here are a few random thoughts I have:

 

• I make no judgments on those that are sitting on multiples, are well-off financially, and thus don't "have to" bring their books to market as suggested. Something about this makes little sense to me though if I consider it on a large scale. Its been suggested that those with money don't often let great financial opportunities pass regardless of their wealth. Using Vince's friends as an example in this case... we can assume they are well aware of his market savvy and fully informed of his predictions of the future collapse of bronze prices. That said, its a given that they realize that opportunity to "cash in" is a limited window of opportunity. So... not to select the (5-10) best copies of a valuable key and submit to CGC and sell while the door is wide open, while you believe it will be permanently shut afterwards... is hard to accept. Maybe some (like Vince) would not submit for whatever reasons, but surely some would want to "cash in" despite their wealth... I would think? Investment gains are not lost upon the wealthy. Also, keep in mind that going back 6 months the census was not updated very often and it would be possible to submit and sell off 5-10 copies of major keys without revealing your hand via the census.

 

• As far as the census and top graded books...

I don't think its fair to conclude that 9.8 prices will come down in value and lose favor to CGC collectors due exclusively to 9.2 - 9.6 numbers rising steadily. Even with "gradual" rises in 9.8, I'd think there's good reason to consider that they may become "even more" desirable. Part of the problem with assuming they'll drop is the common, but inaccurate assumption IMO, that nearly anyone that buys a 9.8 is a "speculator" who expects an advance in value, a not-to-lengthy return on his investment, and will dump his book back IF he sees the prices drop.

 

Elaborating on the above.. Although there are "true speculators" in any collectable hobby (buying strictly for investment) I can only offer you my impressions from my own experiences. Not only do I buy many 9.6/9.8 books... BUT I also SELL many 9.6/9.8 books. I can tell you that in the last several years while working with HG CGC keys... I've only worked with maybe (4-5) buyers that I would categorize as "true speculators". Sure, some fall in-between and have greater hopes than others in terms of appreciation... BUT the best description I can offer of the "vast majority" I've dealt/deal with are.. they are "collectors/fans" (similar to 9.4/9.6 collectors) that are compelled to, and can afford to "buy the best" they can find. They certainly hope the prices may rise (makes them feel good), but that's not the reason for the purchase in my estimation. My impression is that most are largely content with the notion of values holding (so they feel at peace with they money spent). Owning the prized gem that they desire, or means something to them (and they intend to keep) was often bought with what I would consider "discretionary funds", not "investment funds" by and large. I work with more than a few wealthy professionals that don't have the time to search for the books themselves as effectively and I've had conversation with them involving their investments.. they have those too outside of comics. Gene (Delekkerste) is a good example despite his market positions... he's relatively well-off and buys with discretionary funds. He doesn't have many 9.8's but has shelled out plenty for some 9.6 keys for his own enjoyment and he has flirted with some 9.8 purchases too. "Buying the best" is a sound strategy in other areas of consumer life and it may have a carry-over effect on some personalities concerning the purchase of non-essentials. I think in simpler terms many 9.8 buyers are similar to a those of wealth that choose a $85K automobile over a $35K automobile. Resale has little to do with it.. treating themselves to a luxury they value and enjoying what they consider "the best" is pleasing in other ways.

 

Say what you will about our motivations... ego, bragging rights, unhealthy mental status, anal retentive tendencies... whatever. The point is I'm close to the situation and feel we are truly a misunderstood group in many instances. I can tell you that future projected values rarely enter conversations and there is more a sense of excitement to own something rare, or in pristine shape than anything else. I don't expect many to accept my conclusions on this... take it as you will. I'll admit it does bother me when others psychoanalyze my motivations though and make conclusions that make sense to them without thought of alternatives they just don't understand... but such is the burden of 9.8 collectors.

 

The point of this and how it relates to the discussion is... I feel not only are many 9.8 CGC collectors misunderstood, but I feel many out there are underestimating the "non-spec" 9.8 collector and their continued desire and ability to pursue the "best books" available regardless of what's happening in the grades below.

 

'nuff said.

I'm not likely to respond further, my views are surely known at this point.

I'll be happy if my entire thoughts are fully considered instead of exerpts being picked at without absorbing the whole view.

Thanks for listening... if you read it all.

[DiceX]

Well said, Bruce.

 

I agree with your comments.

If I had the money to "treat" myself in such a way, then yes.

I would buy whatever I wanted, for however much it cost to buy it.

Who cares about the investment.

 

And I'm sure there are people that are wealthy enough to do it.

More power to them.

[joe_collector]

One point Bruce:

 

The CGC 9.8 collectors/speculators are not necessarily buying "the best", but are buying what CGC is telling you is "the best".

 

Taking part in the 9.8 hunt needs little effort, minimal business acument, and no legwork. It really only requires an Internet connection, a few sources and a boatload of money to take part.

 

And that sir, is why it will fail.

 

Anything truly worthwhile requires hard work, time and determination to achieve.

[500Club]

• As far as the census and top graded books...

I don't think its fair to conclude that 9.8 prices will come down in value and lose favor to CGC collectors due exclusively to 9.2 - 9.6 numbers rising steadily. Even with "gradual" rises in 9.8, I'd think there's good reason to consider that they may become "even more" desirable. Part of the problem with assuming they'll drop is the common, but inaccurate assumption IMO, that nearly anyone that buys a 9.8 is a "speculator" who expects an advance in value, a not-to-lengthy return on his investment, and will dump his book back IF he sees the prices drop.

 

It does not take many pure collectors and lovers of HG books like Bruce to ensure continued demand for 9.8 copies. If you look at census results for 3 years of slabbing, there are very few 9.8 copies of many books. Granted, more will show up, but at what rate? A rate high enough to outstrip the occasional addition of collectors who always wanted books like these and have worked their way into incomes that allow them these purchases?

[Mutantcollector]

I am really getting sick of this speculators are driving the market hype. From my experience most of the people buying high grade books are doing it because they love the books, not because they are trying to profit off of them. JC, why do you insist on judging eveyone who buys ultra high grade, calling them speculators. Can't you just accept that a lot of people are buying these books becaue they want them.

 

Yes, you may not agree that these books are "the best" (and in many cases i'd agree with you), but CGC has been accepted by the hobby, so they are what the hobby considers the best books.

[500Club]

The CGC 9.8 collectors/speculators are not necessarily buying "the best", but are buying what CGC is telling you is "the best".

 

A generalization....

 

Taking part in the 9.8 hunt needs little effort, minimal business acument, and no legwork. It really only requires an Internet connection, a few sources and a boatload of money to take part.

 

And that sir, is why it will fail.

 

Anything truly worthwhile requires hard work, time and determination to achieve.

 

 

Magical thinking.... How do you get from sentence 3 to 5? How will the lack of legwork needed in this day and age of internet commerce cause the 9.8 'hunt to fail'? (Aside from the Tony Robbins inspired rationale of sentence 5)

[joe_collector]

It does not take many pure collectors and lovers of HG books like Bruce to ensure continued demand for 9.8 copies.

 

I disagree totally. When comics are hot, comic book movies are popular and speculation is rampant, this same "high grade mentality" pervades.

 

Where were all these guys when the EXACT SAME books were for sale at Guide fractions during the "comics suck" period after the early-90's crash? Where will they be when comic movies are no longer hot, and CGC prices cool off?

[joe_collector]

How will the lack of legwork needed in this day and age of internet commerce cause the 9.8 'hunt to fail'?

 

Wait and see. Anything this easy to do is destined for failure.

 

And I'm not talking about buying on the Internet, but what you're buying.

[500Club]

Where were all these guys when the EXACT SAME books were for sale at Guide fractions during the "comics suck" period after the early-90's crash? Where will they be when comic movies are no longer hot, and CGC prices cool off?

 

In my experience, there weren't many books of 9.8 calibre that weren't stickered at guide multiples, even during the slow times.

 

There also weren't many copies for sale. Most owners knew what they had, and held their books rather than accept a sale price unworthy of the books. This was especially true pre-internet, when selling venues were more restricted. CGC has chased many nice personal owner copies out of collections.

[joe_collector]

Where were all these guys when the EXACT SAME books were for sale at Guide fractions during the "comics suck" period after the early-90's crash? Where will they be when comic movies are no longer hot, and CGC prices cool off?

 

In my experience, there weren't many books of 9.8 calibre that weren't stickered at guide multiples, even during the slow times.

 

Calling the FORUM LEGEND. Greggy please report to this thread immediately.

 

Oh, and you can start off with the $10 you paid for the CGC 9.8 ASM 101......

[500Club]

How will the lack of legwork needed in this day and age of internet commerce cause the 9.8 'hunt to fail'?

 

Wait and see. Anything this easy to do is destined for failure.

 

And I'm not talking about buying on the Internet, but what you're buying.

 

You're saying what? It's easy to submit and get 9.8s?

[joe_collector]

You're saying what? It's easy to submit and get 9.8s?

 

No, that's the hard work, time and determination part, which pays off with zany prices.

 

The easy part of laying down the cash to buy these books, AFTER all the hard work, determination and time has been put in.

[500Club]

You're saying what? It's easy to submit and get 9.8s?

 

No, that's the hard work, time and determination part, which pays off with zany prices.

 

The easy part of laying down the cash to buy these books, AFTER all the hard work, determination and time has been put in.

 

What, in all you've said, is going to impact either the supply of, or demand for, CGC 9.8 books???

 

Ease of transaction aside, only the number of copies available and the number of buyers wanting them matters.

[joe_collector]

Ease of transaction aside, only the number of copies available and the number of buyers wanting them matters.

 

Ah young Jedi, I see your education is not yet complete.

[greggy]

Where were all these guys when the EXACT SAME books were for sale at Guide fractions during the "comics suck" period after the early-90's crash? Where will they be when comic movies are no longer hot, and CGC prices cool off?

 

In my experience, there weren't many books of 9.8 calibre that weren't stickered at guide multiples, even during the slow times.

 

Calling the FORUM LEGEND. Greggy please report to this thread immediately.

 

Oh, and you can start off with the $10 you paid for the CGC 9.8 ASM 101......

No..I paid $10 for the Iron Man 55 that got sold raw. I bought practically all my Bronze Marvels at guide in the early 1990s. Or less if I bought multiples!

[500Club]

Ease of transaction aside, only the number of copies available and the number of buyers wanting them matters.

 

Ah young Jedi, I see your education is not yet complete.

 

Don't dissemble. That's Mr Nice's job.

[joe_collector]

No..I paid $10 for the Iron Man 55 that got sold raw. I bought practically all my Bronze Marvels at guide in the early 1990s. Or less if I bought multiples!

 

Now I'm a bit hazy on the exact numbers, for the title of Forum Legend must entail you having a wide selection of high-grade CGC submissions, including many CGC 9.8 and 9.6 keys?

 

How was it that you were able to obtain these high-grade raw comics, especially in the face of these "uber-high-grade comic loving collectors" who will pay insane amounts for CGC 9.8 comics?