WNY

On 4/5/2024 at 9:47 AM, buttock said:

I think the market for books over ~$200k is pretty thin.  There have been several HG Cap 1s, including this retread, offered lately.  So when they come out in relatively short time the hammer is more unpredictable. At least that is probably part of it IMO. But just thinking about it, I could scratch up $156K without it causing too much pain.  I couldn't do $750k without a lot of work and sacrifice.  And I'm a high earner.  

A bit late here but would tend to agree with this comment from @buttock compared to @tth2 (no offense to tth2). If you have ~$150K +/- to spend on this book (that's a LOT of $$$s by the way so most of us won't have this!!!) and you have been hunting it for three years and had some key criteria (good eye appeal, no material size pieces off, no bad staining, no significant fading, no PLOD/conserved), let's look at the sales history of what your options were (this is going three years back):

1) 4/2021 - 7.5 Restored for $90,000 - NO. restored 

2) 9/2021 - 4.0 Universal for $180,000 - NO. above limit 

3) 11/2021 - 3.5 Pedigree for $240,000 - NO. above limit 

4) 3/2022 - 7.0 Universal for $340,000 - NO. above limit 

5) 4/2022 - 9.2 Universal for $3,120,000 - NO. waaaaay above limit 

6) 5/2022 - 7.0 Universal for $312,000 - NO. above limit 

7) 6/2022 - 3.0 Universal for  $144,000 - NO. pretty bad looking book (the one referenced by @buttock) 

8) 9/2022 - 5.0 Universal for $180,000 - NO. above limit (this is the best price / unit grade value btw, even better than the 9.2) 

9) 9/2022 - 8.0 Restored for $78,000 - NO. restored 

10) 11/2022 - 5.0 Restored for $72,000 - NO. restored 

11) 11/2022 - 9.2 Conserved for $276,000 - NO. conserved 

12) 12/2022 - 4.5 Universal for $194,000 - NO. above limit 

13) 3/2023 - 7.0 Universal for $300,000 - NO. above limit 

14) 6/2023 - 3.5 Pedigree for $168,000 - NO. above limit but close, although has notable stain in back (original Promise Collection buyer took a loss) 

15) 6/2023 - 9.2 Universal for $810,000 - NO. above limit 

16) 9/2023 - 7.5 Conserved for $168,000 - NO. conserved 

17) 9/2023 - 2.0 Universal for $114,000 - NO. piece out and fading 

18) 11/2023 - 3.0 Universal for $126,000 - NO. piece out and bad fading 

19) 4/2024 - 9.2 Universal for $750,000 - NO. above limit 

20) 4/2024 - 3.0 Universal for $156,000 - FINALLY WORKS (although the tape in grader notes is not ideal, you can't see it while in the holder - tape on staples is inside book, not outside)

Also, not sure I'd agree it's "common" as this suggests <7 books per year available on average. 

On 1/17/2024 at 9:51 AM, DC# said:

I don’t think one could say that the scandal has definitively impacted anything. The 194 9.8 sold for 2650 which is right at the 90 day average and where the book has been bouncing around since mid-2023.   Depending on the book and platform - it has moved between 2500 and 3000 for six months.   
 

 

the 181  9.4 was 7% off the last sale which was in Oct so that too feels like a general marketplace decline.    The 7.5 was soft but the 6.0 was exactly flat to 90 day and 12 month average - it was also the 2nd highest sale across the last nine sold.

Given volume that books like ASM 300 and IH 181 trade at - and how likely it is that only a small subset of buyers even know about this topic - I personally don’t think is going to directly affect values that much    This board is probably not representative of the knowledge and expertise of the average collector/hobbyist 

 

Love it. @DC# always coming in with fact-based responses. Bringing the receipts... 

Agree that surely this is a mistake by the bidders… that seems to be what you would need to pay for a 3.5-4.0 actual proper original print in blue label… I’d have to imagine that’s preferred over a 6.0 GRR? 

On 10/27/2023 at 12:13 PM, MatterEaterLad said:

I've been winning on eBay with some of my placeholder bids. That's never happened to me before. SA is hurting.

I enjoy your posts just because I like seeing your username pop-up. Matter-Eater Lad. Legend. 

Ok, let’s not get too distracted and come back to the topic at hand: @acistaro’s awesome collection.

@acistaro joined the boards on Monday and drops that epic collection on our collective heads and all of our minds were blown (at least mine was) inside of a week. 

This is what this hobby is all about. Awesome stories like this. Whatever you decide to do with that collection @acistaro, how incredible is it that your dad left you this memory and story. Really happy for you man. 

On 4/7/2023 at 7:36 PM, alexgross.com said:

i finally picked up the last key book in my ditko spidey white page collection (not including my af15 which is owwp) from @machone79 and it's a great looking copy!

very stoked to have all the big books in this run now, and with the white pages to boot. i don't normally care for the cva stickers but i can see why this book got one. 

Great looking book @alexgross.com! Know you have been hunting that elusive ASM1 in WP! Really is hard to come by in that that PQ. Worth the wait! Congrats!!!

On 4/5/2023 at 10:52 AM, DC# said:

Another story from last week's Heritage auction.   Two copies of TOS #39 in 8.0.   One copy with bright reds, double quotes, full $0.12, blue under-table, and OW/W went for $5k more than the 8.0 with more faded red, no blue, no double quotes, and CR/OW pages.   ($38.4k vs $33.6k)

The peak for this book was a single sale in 2021 of $89.5k (a 8.5 went for $99k in the same year).   2022 average was $44.6k (2 sales) - so the nicer book was down 15% from 2022 while the other down 25%.   

 

I'd argue that the spread should be bigger than $5K!

I don't like being negative so won't say anything about the less appealing one, but that nice 8.0 is a really, really awesome looking book!!! That seems to be a very reasonable premium for all the attributes you cited @DC#!

On 4/4/2023 at 11:47 AM, Get Marwood &amp; I said:

 

So a 90x premium to the regular 9.4 that sold on feebay that same day ($559 according to GoCollect)... 

Nice to see the original true variants getting some respect!  

On 3/31/2023 at 6:13 AM, KCOComics said:

I agree. Even with CT removal, this book looks like a legit 7.5. No chipping, good centering, great colors.  It's a pretty book. 

 

I think allot of people have a bias against CT removal. And if I'm being honest, I do to. Don't get me wrong, I would love to own this copy, but if I'm going to spend 6 figures on an AF15, it wouldn't have CT removal. 

Not sure if that factored into the price or if it's just a soft market. 

I would guess both factored in. And there’s room for both given that it is 41% down! 

On 3/30/2023 at 10:28 PM, WolverineX said:

perhaps it will get worse, but if I had the means to buy a 300k book (obviously not something I could ever afford), there's no way I would offload it now after a few months for a 102k loss because prices might get lower.  Right now is not the time to sell.  It's time to buy. 

Unless you think it’s going even lower…

On 3/30/2023 at 4:49 PM, Batmanis#1 said:

Buy the book not the holder said a wise man!!! Or was that a fortune cookie.

I take this sale with a grain of salt and now know what a ''bottom'' 7.5 (I am sure there is a few worse 7.5 out there) brings at auction in 2023.

I think this would be a fair way to think about this datapoint. 

I generally agree with the "buy the book not the holder" mantra. However, it would also be foolish to totally ignore it if you want / need to sell it at some point. 

On 3/30/2023 at 4:18 PM, Batmanis#1 said:

Put it this way would any of you here purchased this 7.5 or would you have waited for a much nicer 7.5 to come up for sale? This is a bottom feeder 7.5.

I have seen much nicer 6.0's, 6.5's and 7.0's over the years. A lot of them to be exact better than this 7.5.

I wouldn't have purchased it more because I'm not willing to spend that kind of money on a book. Not to judge those that are willing to do so btw - people should feel free to spend their money how they want.

But the fact of the matter is, a third-party grading company (that we have all collectively agreed is the standard) put a 7.5 on it. There is of course margin for error as there always is in something that requires judgment. This price is 41% from the last sale so you could argue that it would have been down less or potentially not down at all if it were a much nicer book, but I think to completely disregard it as an irrelevant datapoint would be actively putting your head in the sand in terms of there being softer prices for the market overall and this book in particular. 

I'm definitely not an expert and nowhere close to the league of the people commenting in terms of having a keen eye... But doesn't seem like an awful 7.5 to me... have definitely seen worse. 

I think people should stop being in denial about this book being soft and coming down in value and not quite finding its bottom.

Btw, I too own an AF15 so am feeling the pain, I just don't think being in denial is a good strategy! 

On 3/24/2023 at 9:54 AM, buttock said:

You should make a chart yourself.

Exactly. @DC# trying to do all of us a solid and people can’t help but be critical. Rest of us appreciate your efforts DC#! 

That’s a good deal and a great looking book. I already have one and not looking to upgrade but wish this was available when I was looking! Good luck! 

Sure there are other forums for this, but wanted to focus on the X-Men 1 Club first, anyone have a X1 8.0 or higher Blue Label they are willing to do a trade (for a X1 6.5x Blue) + cash? 

Want to use this as an opportunity to upgrade but don't really want to have to hold onto two X1s... 

On 1/28/2023 at 12:27 PM, lizards2 said:

I am not sure they are lying so much as they have not updated their website?

If I remember correctly, the old ones all had microchamber between the covers and the interior pages. As you get into the newer cases, that is where you find the variation. I have definitely cracked several with no microchamber paper at all.

I kind of notice that stuff, because most of my normal-sized books that I put into M2s and Fullbacks, I put three pieces of microchamber paper in, usually one between each cover front and back, then one in the center. The 64 page giants, or any stinky book, I will put 5 to 7 or maybe more in. I thought the microchamber paper might draw out some of the stink, but so far, I haven't noticed any mitigation. 

Stinky books? 

On 1/28/2023 at 10:18 AM, lizards2 said:

No, no they don't all have microchamber placed between the cover and the interior pages. I have cracked out over 400+ books, and the microchamber can be one, two or zero pages per book. CGC began placing microchamber back a couple pages inside the books, particularly DCs, because (I believe) they were popping so many staples in the encapsulation process.

You can test this out yourself by scanning one of your own books without microchamber paper, and then scanning again wtih microchamber placed between the cover and the interior pages. 

Interesting. Learn something new everyday. I thought they all had microchamber paper especially all the modern label ones… I’ve never cracked a case so don’t have that perspective.
 

But their website explicitly says they put microchamber paper in all the books that they grade and is part of what they are saying is their value-add and why their encapsulation process is designed to “last for generations”.  
 

Unless they are lying, then a significant majority of new label books should have microchamber paper and therefore the transparency issue still stands, no? 

On 1/28/2023 at 10:09 AM, lizards2 said:

The transparency is caused by the microchamber paper.

I was schooled on this when I first got to this site and complained about it.

Agree - but they all have microchamber paper and some are way more transparent than others. Feels like the original paper was thinner or that it has been worn down somehow over the years. But it takes away a lot of eye appeal for me when there is meaningful transparency.