Axe Elf

Is it even possible to determine a 9.8 grade from 3 pics?

Yeesh, probly a 1.5.

If you're suggesting that I'm not an expert in grading comics, you'll get no argument from me. I do, however, have an advanced degree in neuropsychology, so I have some insight into how people's biases affect their decisions, and I'm pretty good at analyzing a set of observational data, like the distribution of grades given in the grading contest. So I can say with some authority that the distribution of grades is not normal, but rather skewed toward under-grading. Now, what that analysis MEANS is going to require input from those of you with more grading experience. It was informative, for instance, to recognize that some contestants may not be giving their own grading analysis, but rather what they expect to be the CGC grading analysis--so more studies would have to be done to control for the effect of grading expectations on base grading skill--but for whatever reason, more people are currently under-grading comics than are over-grading them, which is consistent with what my newbie eye observes on the PGM board as well (which should remove the effect of CGC expectations that could be present in the contest). Individually, your results may vary. Even if the community as a whole under-grades comics, you may still be an egregious and consistent over-grader; the cumulative results can't speak to any one participant.

I'm going to say 4.0 - 4.5. I think there's a shadow on the inside pic that makes it hard to tell how much actual discoloration there is on the page. If it's cleaner than it looks, maybe a 5.0, but it will be hard to get much higher than that with a 3/4" tear at the spine.

Appreesh. Now if I just correct for that sitewide undergrade prejudice, I'm at 8.5 and 7.5. ;) Nice!

Excellent analysis! So maybe the message isn't that people are being too conservative, but that people expect CGC to be too conservative... But people are still being more conservative than CGC actually is, and the data fits the prediction I made just from eyeballing grades given on this site--that they tend to err on the conservative side in general.

There were 2,025 grades observed. Usually a sample size of 30 or more is considered adequate for statistical analysis. Almost half of the observed grades were under-grades. It appears that your experience would reflect the overall findings (your two worst misses were under-grades), though having just cautioned me against a small sample size, your sample size of 1 doesn't really tell us anything about the overall population. I'm not trying to put anyone down here. It has just been my impression that a lot of the grades given on this site err on the conservative side--and this data would bear that out. Knowing that the bias exists can help us all get better at this.

Perfect! So yeah, this data bears out what I was saying about the majority of participants that I would expect would under-grade the comics. 2025 total grades recorded. 416 (20.54%) were bullseyes. 667 (32.94%) were over-grades. 942 (46.52%) were under-grades. So people are under-grading almost half the time. 15 total comics graded; in 10 of them the majority of participants under-graded the comic. Of the 5 comics that the majority over-graded, 3 of them had a correct grade of 5.0 or less--so I guess people tend to be more generous with the lower grades. On the other hand, the greatest disparity between under-grades (111) and over-grades (11) was observed in a comic with a correct grade of 3.0, while the greatest disparity between over-grades (93) and under-grades (26) was observed in a comic with a correct grade of 9.2. That suggests that people are extra-hard on the lowest grades and extra-lenient on the NM grades. So I guess the lesson is be aware of your biases! In general, you're all being too conservative--but the more extreme grades seem to bring out the worst in everyone. Thus ends the lesson...

Cool, but newbie me doesn't know where that might be... You wouldn't happen to have a link, would you?

What would be interesting would be to see the range and distribution of responses--whether the majority of people over-graded or under-graded or if there were pretty normal distributions of misses around the correct answers. I'm curious because in my less-than-a-week's experience in this grading forum, I feel like people tend to err on the side of caution in grading pretty harshly--so I would expect to see more under-grades than over-grades among the overall population of participants. And if that's not what the data shows, then my experience has simply been too limited.

Thanks, I appreciate your time, and I also see Book A as slightly better than Book B.

Oh? Cool. I better brush up on silverfish damage and Care Bear stickers...

From what I have followed in the few days I have been here, it looks like a fun contest. Unfortunately, I found this site a couple of weeks too late to participate this year (and I have only just begun to build some grading skill), but if I make it to next year, I look forward to matching the skills I have developed against the board's best! Congrats to the winner(s), prematurely.

Most of it looks pretty nice, but the spine is the worst feature. The covers look to be pretty 7ish, but with that spine, 6.0 - 6.5 max.

Agreed; maybe not 8.0, but 7.5 seems fair.

I'm seeing a 6.0.

Ah, that explains why the "scrunch" appeared in some pics and not in others--it's only on the BACK cover! I din't know the front and back cover were the same artwork. I still think that between that and the accumulation of minor imperfections, it would be hard to reach NM territory--but it's a pretty excellent book.

Those larger tears probably keep it from being 2.5, so 2.0.

Looks a little rough to be above a 4.0 for me; 3.5 feels more comfortable, just for the extent of the general wear and soiling.

In some of the pics, it looks like there's a nasty scratch/crease from Rocky's armpit through his tail--and in other shots it seems invisible--so it's kind of hard to tell. If that scratch is really there, it's hard to imagine this book getting to a 9.0. And then you don't have any shots of the back cover, so that's kind of an unknown as well--but I'd say 8.5 would be the ceiling here.

I would go 8.0.

Well, I guess this wasn't such a great idea after all. Thought people would be all over it because it was a little unique, but... ::: crickets ::: So I should just post them individually?

CREEPY 4 - 8.0 CREEPY 1968 - 7.5 Werewolf - 8.5

Yeah, even flirting with a 7.0.

5.5ish would be my impression.