?

What was "implied?"

@ChillMan stated it "had no marketing budget" - which was obviously hyperbole - but even so, both unwarranted and irrelevant.

Unwarranted, because every available source points to its having a normal P&A budget (of ~$100M) for a $200+ million tentpole.

And irrelevant, because the marketing budget (or lack thereof) is like 5th or 6th on the list of reasons the film failed.

Likewise, one can't argue that audience awareness for this was low, because

• This was the *5th* film featuring Momoa as Aquaman
• The first film made over $1.1 billion
• The Johnny Depp / Amber Heard trial gave this oodles of publicity a full year+ before release - with countless articles questioning whether Heard's role would be diminished or eliminated

No - audiences knew what this was - and simply opted out.

On 1/20/2024 at 6:11 AM, Bosco685 said:

 

"according to estimates from EDO Ad EnGage"

A rough calculation. Once Gunn had removed the planned follow-on film elements of Crisis On Infinite Earths and made it clear it was not part of his go-forward DCU, traditional film promotion did not apply. Gunn-Safran would focus on their go-forward planned films with Creature Commandos and Superman: Legacy.

There was nothing like the 2018 film where WB released a 5-minute trailer and mass advertising to make it clear something different was coming.

 

Yes - estimates, but still an apples-to-apples comparison.

Having a pre-release TV budget 1/3 less than the original is still a significant expense - and ~$30 million in pre-release TV advertising alone tracks with an overall worldwide marketing budget of $100M+.

Yes, but when you make a claim as absurd as a $200 million tentpole having "no advertising budget," the burden of proof is on you to back it up.

Here's another source, citing (or ummm...assuming) pre-release TV advertising alone:

"Warner Bros. had a higher-than-average national TV ad budget heading into the opening -- $19.9 million from 1,250 airings resulting in 1.1 billion impressions, according to estimates from EDO Ad EnGage.

The studio estimated TV spend was much higher the first time in 2018 [for the first Aquaman] -- a massive $29.6 million pre-opening (2,380 airings and 1.7 billion impressions). For the entire campaign that year, national TV totaled $35.5 million (3,840 airings and 2.47 billion)."

https://www.mediapost.com/publications/article/392171/aquaman-and-the-lost-kingdom-treads-water-with.html 

Where are you getting that Aquaman 2 "had no advertising budget?"

Variety reported that, while Warner Bros. decided to scale back on advertising, "it likely still cost $100 million."

$100 million in advertising for a film costing $205-$215 million to produce seems on par.

Kind of amazing that Wonka's only been out a week longer than Aquaman but is running 63% ahead of it domestically.

And yesterday Wonka pulled in nearly 50% more than Aquaman did.

Another 65% drop from week 3, from 11.1 million views to 3.9 million worldwide - dropping it to # 8 and leaving it 3 places (and 15%) behind...ummm...

Tyler Perry's The Single Moms Club.

Oops.

I'm wrong - forgot to account for tomorrow's being a holiday. 

Definitely will make more than $1 million tomorrow, and possibly next weekend as well.

Because you're right - next weekend looks weak. Biggest new release seems to be (checks notes) Founder's Day??

Let's all raise a glass to today's being this film's last $1 million day domestically.

And pour one out for its making in its first 3 weeks what, once upon a time, Suicide Squad made in its first 2 days some 8 years ago.

It's giving Generation X (1996).

Worth it for the grain dialogue montage beginning at 2:11 alone

On 1/3/2024 at 6:22 AM, Gatsby77 said:

The reason I think the comparison to Jupiter's Legacy is apt?

Both were high-profile projects featuring new or unknown fantasy IP by top-tier creators for which Netflix shelled out more than $150 million.

And both started strong, dominating their first week before then falling precipitously.

Jupiter's Legacy's viewership fell 60% in week 3.

There's your bar. Let's see how Rebel Moon compares to that.

And there we go.

In week 3, Rebel Moon's global viewership fell from 34 million views to 11.1 million - a decline of 67%+  -- far steeper than that of Jupiter's Legacy.

Oh - and it dropped off of the U.S. Top 10 list entirely.

Why this matters?

Our guy Luiz seems to be overestimating the film's legs.

Expecting it to cross $100M domestic on Friday, only to see it do so on Sunday instead = not a great look.

Especially when there's a bunch of new releases dropping this Friday, including The Beekeeper and the Mean Girls remake.

?

I said what I said.

Last week, Luiz Fernando said it wouldn't hit $100M domestic before Jan. 5th - meaning he expected it to cross that line on Jan. 5th.

I noted, or before "Jan. 6th or Jan. 7th" - meaning it was now likely to cross the $100M domestic mark on Jan. 7th - but not before.

#ReadingIsFundamental

Raise a glass to yesterday being Aquaman 2's last $4 million+ day domestically.

On 1/2/2024 at 12:04 PM, Bosco685 said:

Or Jan. 6th

Or Jan. 7th, apparently.

Worth reading:

SFGATE Columnist Drew Magary's account of live blogging his viewing of Rebel Moon.

Netflix's 'Rebel Moon' is one of the worst movies ever made 

Some select quotes:

"“Rebel Moon” was originally pitched by Snyder as a “Star Wars” film, only a more “mature” one (“mature” in fanboy-ese meaning extra tits and , possibly with Leonard Cohen playing in the background to make those tits and asses feel more soulful). But then Netflix gave Snyder both the money (well over $150 million) and the carte blanche to make a “Rebel Moon” that existed in its own cinematic universe, one big enough to accommodate a sequel, an R-rated cut for 14-year-olds who haven’t discovered Pornhub yet, and maybe a spinoff series and even some licensed merchandise made exclusively by Ed Hardy."

"At this point in the film, I pop a gummy to see if it’ll help even though I know it won’t."

"All of the visuals look like a high-budget Scorpions video. The script is like if you assigned a dozen seventh graders 10 pages each. And the fight scenes are boring as s—t. The more of “Rebel Moon” I watch, the more running time I appear to have left. You should get your name on a wall for finishing this movie, like when you polish off the 96-ounce London broil at Jim Bob’s Steak Barn."

"This movie doesn’t even have kitsch value, the way other awful films might. It’s just an incoherent, deadening mess. It’s a movie that shouldn’t be watched so much as it should be biopsied. The fact that it ends with the title card “END PART ONE” feels like a hostile threat more than anything exciting. If my bosses force me to watch Part Two, I will leave this job."

On 1/5/2024 at 6:05 PM, paperheart said:

here's another less inane comparison

or this one

Justice League 2 (never)

 

 

 

 

How dare you malign Justice League!

It was so successful, it's currently # 9 on Netflix's most-watched movies.

Right above... Meg 2: The Trench.

(Which is probably the closest we'll ever ever get to James Wan's The Trench.)  

Did we ever find out who he was supposed to be playing?

We all saw Rebel Moon was Netflix's # 1 movie its first 10 days of release, so it's not like the 2nd week results were a surprise.

Doesn't change that those combined results were still middling vs. other original Netflix films last year.

Or that, once the extended Christmas / New Year's holiday was over, it dropped like a stone.

From # 1 to # 10 in just 48 hours?

That takes skill.

I love this chart.

Because it shows how much higher a week 2 percentage increase Jamie Foxx's "They Cloned Tyrone" had than Rebel Moon - and without the added benefit of a holiday week.

That's what good word of mouth will do. 

Umm...the calendar matters.

Most of the country was off last week, so direct comparisons to the week 2 of other 2023 releases clearly favor Rebel Moon.

And even with that, Rebel Moon lagged (checks notes) Extraction 2's 2nd week numbers by 20%?

Not a good look.

The reason I think the comparison to Jupiter's Legacy is apt?

Both were high-profile projects featuring new or unknown fantasy IP by top-tier creators for which Netflix shelled out more than $150 million.

And both started strong, dominating their first week before then falling precipitously.

Jupiter's Legacy's viewership fell 60% in week 3.

There's your bar. Let's see how Rebel Moon compares to that.

Counterpoint - 24 million views in its first 3 days is weak sauce vs. its $166 million budget.

Comes in 9th for the year among original Netflix films. The below chart lists the top 2023 original film's 1st 3-day views, in millions. And Rebel Moon is far more expensive than several on the risk that outrank it.

"It's also noteworthy that Rebel Moon had advantages over these movies: it was released early during prime time hours (in the USA) on a Thursday, and it launched over the festive period, potentially attracting more viewers during the holidays." - What's On Netflix: Zack Snyder's 'Rebel Moon' Viewership Struggles on Netflix in Week One.

See also Forbes: Rebel Moon's Viewership Compares Poorly to Other 2023 Netflix Movies.

Sure - it did another 34 million this past week - but that compares a 7-day week 2 to a 3-day week 1, and during a holiday week.

Now, in week 3, it's falling like a rock.