Darkowl

Yep. I bought my 9.4 copy in 2001 for $1000 and it might be worth $1500 today going by GPA sales from the last year. That's an APR increase of around 3%, which is about the same as the inflation rate. Your 9.4 copy is worth more than $1500.

"This time will be different." -J. That might apply if a new Star Wars movie were never made. However, Disney buying the franchise and making new movies is huge and is definitely a factor. Time will tell of course, but I can see this bubble expanding for a long, long time. Exactly. Same thing with Guardians of the Galaxy with at least two more movies on the way, and a weekly animated TV series to be shown on Disney Channel. All bubbles burst, but enjoy the ride because Star Wars and GOTG have at least 5 years as being players now before their bubbles burst. My point is Star Wars and Guardians of the Galaxy are/will be going on an upward trend these next few years, while GSX 1 will just sit there. With no movement with GSX 1 we will find the inflation alone will make an investor lose money on the deal. Money now is worth less in 5 years. An example is if you spend $3000 on a GSX 1 CGC 9.8 now, and its still worth $3000 in 5 years, than you would have lost money because of inflation. I don't think you're giving GSX1 enough credit in its entirety, because you're only focusing on the 9.8, and people know that 9.8's can fluctuate probably more than any other grade. It would be fair to mention that the 2013 average for GSX1 9.6 was $2,347, but the 90 day average is $2,846. Obviously, the book didn't sit, and that's true for most of the grades for this particular book. I doubt this modest growth has anything to do with movie hype, and that's a profound sign that this book is way more solid than SW 1. If you want to debate that SW 1 is the better book to flip for the time being, than I would have to agree with you, but saying that GSX1 has had no movement just isn't true.

Would you agree that the huge value spike that SW 1 received in such a short amount of time gives it the appearance of a bubble?

TRUTH!

It turned out to be one of the best investments in the history of mankind!

Nightcrawler was in X-Men United and it didn't affect the value of GSXM1, so I dunno why even another cool Nightcrawler appearance would affect it now. And that opening sequence with him bamf'ing all over the White House was one of the coolest sequences in ANY X-Men movie. His design in that film was great too with those angelic symbols all over his skin, that marked him as more stylish than the comic version. I was waiting for someone to come back with that point, especially since I was thinking the same thing while I was writing the post. I don't remember what the value of GSX1 was before and after the release of X2, but now that I think about it, wasn't there some sort of a spike for that book when X2 did come out though? Do you have any info on that? You also have to take into consideration that when X2 came out, superhero movies weren't what they are today, and so they didn't have the following that they do now. I'm just saying that it's possible that more people are paying attention to this stuff nowadays, so perhaps Nightcrawler will finally get the attention he deserves, and that may play a part in the value of GSX1. Or maybe it's just wishful thinking on my end. Anyways, great post. I love that scene!

We're likely to be past any one movie affecting GSX1 at this point. If the dial on the book hasn't budged much after 15 years of movies, one more isn't likely to do much more to it. From a value appreciation standpoint, GSX1 and SW1 have something in common--neither is likely to yield much return except MAYBE SW1 over the short term between now and the end of the year when the movie comes out. Lots of better choices on books with similar demand but FAR less supply for anything other than a quick SW1 flip. Long term, GSXM 1 will bring in a lot more value than SW 1. The other thing to take into consideration is that Nightcrawler will be in the next X-Men film. Who knows what that will do to the value of GSXM 1. After all, didn't X-Men 4 shoot up a bit after everyone saw how cool Quicksilver was in DOFP?

I don't see that as being as silly as it sounds. There will be a lot of SW collectors who aren't even comic collectors wanting SW 1, whereas I cant see non collectors who are fans of the X-Men movies clamoring for GSX 1. SW is a rising star (pun intended). I wouldn't disregard it so lightly. It`s that generation that grew up with GSX 1 and Uncanny X-Men 94 that has this attitude. They can`t fathom that GSX 1 and Uncanny X-Men 94 have lost some importance with the current crowd. That won`t ever admit that Star Wars #1 is a player. To them they`ll always be considered toy/movie comic book tie in, when in fact we know Star Wars #1 has a better future going forward than GSX #1. At least they will acknowledge Star Wars #1. Good luck with them ever saying anything positive about GI JOE #1 or Transformers #1. Toy tie ins. I really don't think SW 1 has a better future going for it, especially long term. Right now It looks that way, but GSX 1 has been an incredibly solid book for such a long time that it's not even fair to compare the two. The way SW 1 has shot up in price recently just reeks of long term instability. I'll also add that I do think SW 1 is a player. It's just not in the same league as GSX 1.

Quite possible that it's a shill. And yes, GSX 1 is the more valuable book. I do think that SW 1 is forming into a huge bubble, which is the opposite of GSX 1.

What makes you say that? Can't imagine it's the case. If you mean the variant issue, that's not popularity, that's an example of extreme rarity creating huge demand for a tiny handful of people. Star War #1 is more sought after because it is collected outside of comic collectors. You have Star Wars collectors that don't collect any other comics. Which proves my point that Star Wars #1 has more universal appeal than GSX1. GSX1 is a top generational appeal book in that young people/collectors of the 70s and 80s put much more emphasis on it`s importance,than people who grew up in the 60s,90 and now do. With AF#15 and Star Wars #1 we will find that they transcend all generations and have much more universal appeal than GSX1. Actually it proves it NOT. You put up a Star Wars #1 in 9.8 for $1500 and it will SIT. (At least for a few more months) You put up a legitimate GSX1 in 9.8 for TWICE that - $3000 - and it will sell in a heartbeat. That's Money where your mouth is popularity. Star Wars 1 CGC 9.8 sells for over $1800 on ebay.

Love the artwork!

I had a guy looking for an Avengers #57. I asked which grade / price range. He said "Any". I told him I could probably get him fitted into a CGC 9.6 for about $4500 He said he was looking for a $100-200 copy. Why not just say that in the first place?

60% of the time, the WTB ads work every time.

You beat me to it! I think Battle Cat looks awesome!

This isn't about the past, it's about the future. If you think prices will be higher in 10-20 years - when the people currently holding the majority of these books will be selling and nobody buying will be trying to buy back their childhood - than they are now, you could be in for a rude awakening. You think that no one will be buying SA keys in 10 to 20 years for at least the same price they are selling for now?

I am of the mindset that comics are a great investment,but don't put all your eggs in one basket.Diversify,real estate,401K,etc. If you buy the right books,at the right time(big one).You can do just fine. (thumbs u I'm taking a look at your sig line, and am noticing some pretty serious books. In your humble opinion, what do you think the future holds for those books?

I am of the mindset that comics are a great investment,but don't put all your eggs in one basket.Diversify,real estate,401K,etc. If you buy the right books,at the right time(big one).You can do just fine. (thumbs u This + infinity!

I'm pretty much with Kav on this one. Unlike stocks, real estate, and other investments, it's incredibly difficult to show that there has been a major SA key crash (the naysayers in this thread haven't been successful in proving their point), and that's probably because it's never happened, especially in its entirety. Prices fluctuating a little here and there doesn't cut it. I really would like to see some solid examples of SA keys just completely nose diving, because then I can at least re-evaluate my outlook on key comics being a worthy investment.

Just watched KA 1 this morning. It had been a while since I've seen it, but It really does make the second film look pretty weak. I think Mathew Vaughn is light years ahead of Jeff Wadlow.

It's only dangerous If you use the past as an absolute, and aren't prepared for the worse, which is something a lot of real estate investors weren't prepared for. A lot of those people weren't even prepared to buy real estate in the first place, let alone prepared for the worse. Using the past to predict future outcomes can be a great tool when utilized correctly, though it can be dangerous when the full spectrum isn't taken into account. I think people took the real estate market value for granted, and If they had taken a closer look at how real estate has played out in previous times, they may have been a bit more hesitant to invest their money into it. I think ignoring past behavior can be an even more dangerous move than trying to incorporate it to your advantage. Comics can be relatively inexpensive (especially compared to real estate). If someone was to invest $800 in Hulk 181, and the book crashed, then so what? You may have lost $800, but you certainly won't need to file bankruptcy (unlike the real estate crash). On the flip side, If someone was to invest hundreds of thousands of dollars into the same book, then yeah, it's risky, because If that book crashes, you now have to face a major loss. The solution here is to not put all your eggs in one basket. Regardless, there's always two sides to a coin. I'm not saying it's impossible for there to be an AF 15 crash, or a Hulk 181 crash, but I am saying that investing in comics doesn't have to be as risky or dangerous as some people here are making it out to be. We've had this discussion many, many times before and what you have said hits the nail on the head. Any objective view of the comic market has to take into account that this has been one heck of a bull market driven by, among other things, the immense popularity of superhero movies, the arrival of CGC, CLink, CommicConnect, and Heritage (which together greatly increased the liquidity of high-end books), and baby boomers entering their prime earning years. For comics to be a good investment going forward, it's not enough to say that demand won't collapse, you have to argue that demand will increase in the future. Where is that increased demand coming from? In any event, the best advice is to buy what you like at prices you can afford. If the worst happens, then you won't have to sweat it. I think that sums it up completely.

It's only dangerous If you use the past as an absolute, and aren't prepared for the worse, which is something a lot of real estate investors weren't prepared for. A lot of those people weren't even prepared to buy real estate in the first place, let alone prepared for the worse. Using the past to predict future outcomes can be a great tool when utilized correctly, though it can be dangerous when the full spectrum isn't taken into account. I think people took the real estate market value for granted, and If they had taken a closer look at how real estate has played out in previous times, they may have been a bit more hesitant to invest their money into it. I think ignoring past behavior can be an even more dangerous move than trying to incorporate it to your advantage. Comics can be relatively inexpensive (especially compared to real estate). If someone was to invest $800 in Hulk 181, and the book crashed, then so what? You may have lost $800, but you certainly won't need to file bankruptcy (unlike the real estate crash). On the flip side, If someone was to invest hundreds of thousands of dollars into the same book, then yeah, it's risky, because If that book crashes, you now have to face a major loss. The solution here is to not put all your eggs in one basket. Regardless, there's always two sides to a coin. I'm not saying it's impossible for there to be an AF 15 crash, or a Hulk 181 crash, but I am saying that investing in comics doesn't have to be as risky or dangerous as some people here are making it out to be. Point taken, and agreed with. Like I said, I think there's two sides to this coin, and you and I are pointing both of them out.