Jaydogrules

On 11/29/2022 at 7:05 PM, GeeksAreMyPeeps said:

Prices for UF4 started their upward trajectory off when the video game was announced. But by all means, show me another "spec character" whose first appearance sells for anywhere near where UF4 sells.

There are none.  There are characters that have actually already been in plenty of video games, cartoons, and successful live action movies even that don't sell for that.  

....and that's your first red flag.  

-J.

On 11/29/2022 at 10:55 AM, Broke as a Joke said:

The 667 has nothing but rarity going for it.  It's not even a great cover compared to other Del'Otto pieces.  

I'd rather have a UF4 variant long term for sure.  Tried and true ASM completists will be the only ones pining for this one (667) in the future and with the overwhelming renumbering and depth of variants out now those types of need it all collectors have been shrinking fast.  

Still suffering from ASM 667 Derangement Syndrome I see.  You've only been wrong for nearly 10 years now, no need to break the streak now I suppose.  

-J.

On 11/29/2022 at 10:30 AM, MAR1979 said:

"holding quite well compared to most other books from its era"

examples please

 

Daredevil 168, hulk 271, iron man 55, Asm 238, asm 129, giant size x-men 1, etc etc etc.

-J.

On 11/29/2022 at 8:07 AM, GeeksAreMyPeeps said:

You're missing the point. ASM 667 has nothing going for it except rarity. And it's artificial rarity, since it's an incentive book. Not like it's some Golden Age book of which only a few survive because most people didn't treat them like collectibles.

UF4 is a first appearance of an important character. Miles graduated from being a "spec character" some time ago. Already the featured character in one major movie, with at least one more on the way. I'm not particularly knowledgable about video games, but it appears that the video game he was the main character in was highly successful as well.

Since comic collecting has been a thing, most collectors have consistently sought out the first appearance of characters, especially important characters. Seeking out an alternate, artificially scarce cover of a book is a relatively new phenomenon, and it remains to be seen whether that's just a fad.

I vehemently disagree with morales not being a spec chatacter.  People weren't allegedly paying those prices for any version of UF 4 based on cartoons and video games , it was on the speculation that morales would somehow be in No Way Home, despite marvel not having the rights, and it's still based on the dream that he will get a solo live action movie at some point in the next decade.   My personal opinion is that miles was little more than a pandemic  flash in the pan, and beneficiary of a particular political environment that is already waning.  

As for the 667, I'm not going to rehash for the millionth time what it has "going for it", however sufficeth to say it is much more than the fact that just a couple hundred were printed 12 years ago.  There's lots of rare variants out there that sell for little or nothing and many of those (*gasp!) have first appearances.  

-J.

On 11/29/2022 at 8:49 AM, MAR1979 said:

2.7k is ow/w however also a newsstand, the past 2 years newsstand did neutralized ow/w compared to w, but no longer on this book. 

ASM194 fraying at the seems is underway. There will be blips and dead (Black) Cat bounces but its 10-16 month march down to 2-2.2K is in progress. If not for the pandemic bubble is probably where it should have been all along. Most certainly not at 5K which the first post in this thread gleefully celebrated.

  

 

"Newsstand" has never been a "thing" on this book, and if you believe a hobby wide break down in prices is something to take a victory lap over on this one book, which incidentally is still holding quite well compared to most other books from its era, then I have a bridge to sell ya. 

-J.

On 11/28/2022 at 9:07 AM, GeeksAreMyPeeps said:

There are, at best, just a few things that have consistently propped up demand for a book in the history of comics collecting, and the first appearance of a character has been the most important of those things. UF4 is going to be the long-term winner.

That calculus has changed in the spec age where a characters potential appearance in a movie or TV show and the degree of success/failure of that can completely make or break a book.  Miles morales is a spec character and there are loads of copies of the UF 4 variant out there, most auctions seem to have at least one 9.8 copy for sale nowadays including the two copies coming up on heritage, as well as lower grades, not to mention for sale on ebay and instagram every day.  It literally is the warehouse book that plenty of people in this forum at one point speculated the ASM 667 Dell'otto "could be".   ASM 667 will always be king.   

-J.

On 11/27/2022 at 8:41 AM, drotto said:

So looking at about a 55% domestic to 45% international split, BP2 is looking at around $790 to $830 million final run.

Yeah Luiz is oretty terrible with his projedtons- as if this holiday weekend where this was essentially the only movie for people to see, is going to extrapolate out exactly the same until Avatar comes out.  This movie is a month old next weekemd, and most people who want to see it will have.   It will be a slog for this to even get to $850M.

-J.

On 11/26/2022 at 11:07 AM, N e r V said:

Sequels have a built in factor too with their grosses of people who liked the last one and jump into the next one based on that. I’m guessing if there’s a 3 down the road it’ll have to sell itself harder next time. This one got a boost as well for the passing of its lead much like the Fast and Furious follow up did after Paul Walkers passing. All it did for me was miss Chadwick Boseman who did such an excellent job in the role. I think it would have been better to wait and recast the role down the road. 

Agreed 100%.

But if the franchise does survive, they have set up a somewhat workable backdoor recast that preserves the name of the character at least (though it would have been easier to simply recast via the multiverse device).  

At the end I think the #notchallanoticket movement did hurt it noticeably.   

-J.

On 11/26/2022 at 8:45 AM, paperheart said:

If it matches Thor:Rag's 1.5x Thanksgiving weekend tail, will reach $470M US

So with international.... about an $850M finish.  

Half a billion less on a $50M larger budget compared to the first one.

Not great, and yet still more than it deserves.   

-J.

On 11/25/2022 at 12:33 PM, @therealsilvermane said:

Shuri targets his entire body.

...with heaters.   

Heaters.  🤮

-J.

On 11/25/2022 at 10:05 AM, @therealsilvermane said:

SPOILER ALERT:

In Wakanda Forever, Shuri figures out that Namor must also be able to breathe through his skin when it's wet, which boosts his strength. She theorizes if they can trap Namor and dry out his skin entirely, they can thus weaken him and stand a better chance of defeating him. The specific "back" thing must be something you picked up because of all the talk of slurs and stuff from the past few posts. I guess you haven't seen the movie yet.

This short summary is a perfect example of how "mind numbingly" stupid this movie was.   Well made, yes, big budget, yes, schlock, yes .   

-J. 

On 11/21/2022 at 10:10 AM, drotto said:

BP = $200 million

BP2 = $250 million

Thank you !

-J.

On 11/20/2022 at 8:49 AM, Bosco685 said:

 

@Bosco685 What do you show as the budget for the first movie ?

-J.

On 11/20/2022 at 8:46 AM, Bosco685 said:

 

Interesting.  

I think I'm the only person here that actually thought and predicted several weeks ago, long before it came out, that this would finish as low as 400MM and here we are....

-J.

#1 ASM 667 Dell'otto and #2  on the list UF 4 variant are going head to head on comiclink current auction.  

It will be interesting to see if absolute rarity/cover art continue to trump a first appearance of a modern character.  I suspect it will. ASM 667 is just too big of a white buffalo.

It will also be interesting to see if the fact that TWO other 9.8 copies off UF 4 are coming up in the next heritage auction next month will affect anything one way or another.  

-J.

On 11/18/2022 at 8:20 AM, THE_BEYONDER said:

If $18k is reasonable, then why is the one listed at $16,500 not selling?  I’m not seeing too many Hulk 181 9.8s on EBay, and I’m certainly not seeing any priced less than the last sale.   Do you already own a 9.8 of this Wolvy variant?

Context-

The ebay copy sold for $17k and the one that's a whole $500 under that is shipping from Australia.  

Also, auctions and buy it nows are two different animals, ie an auction for a 9.8 (that hasn't happened in several months on ebay) will create more of a FOMO than a guy in Australia trying to sell his copy for a tiny fraction less (because he is in Australia) as a buy it now. 

-J.

On 11/18/2022 at 7:33 AM, THE_BEYONDER said:

There’s 2 more 9.8s available on EBay now.   Why are they just sitting there?  
 

 

How many copies of hulk 181 are "just sitting there"? 

What do you think that proves? 

-J.

On 11/17/2022 at 3:11 PM, Bosco685 said:

There are some convinced Into The Spider-Verse failed as a film. Oscar and all.

It made very little, if anything theatrically and nobody cares about Oscars.   The sequel was tracking poorly for its October release so they pushed it to next June.  

But yeah, muh "future".  Lol

-J.

Ruh-roh.  Mid-week business has been below Love and Thunder so far.

Not what Disney was expecting or hoping for, I'm sure.  

-J.

On 11/17/2022 at 2:43 PM, Beige said:

Umm...into the Spider-Verse?

 

Still confused.  That cartoon made a paltry 375M or whatever and had other spider ripoff characters in addition to Parker still.  

Meanwhile the last spider-man made nearly 2 billion dollars.  Who's looking to replace that? Lol

And Venom has already showed himself to be the "next big thing" at Sony, and the only character that has shown any capacity to be successful as a standalone (ie, no Peter Parker at all, so far at least).

-J.

On 11/17/2022 at 1:00 PM, Beige said:

Angela Kang 

How do these people get work??

Her only credit was the Walking Dead - which her and unbelievably the guy from 'The Shawshank Redemption' - Frank Darabont plus Gale Anne Hurd (Terminator) turned into the biggest pile of doo-doo ever.

And yes, they also made the abomination known as 'Walking Dead - World Beyond'

 

Surely there must be someone out there better than her.

 

[BSilk, along with Spider-Gwen and Miles M are the way forward for the Spider-Man franchise[/b] - why they would give it too Angela Kang is beyond me. 

Why those 3 and not any of the other 5000 spider-man derivative characters trotted out over the last 40+ years ? 

-J.

On 11/16/2022 at 3:12 PM, Otter1775 said:

Jay, do you ever plan on pushing out your list by 2030? Just curious. 😜

🤔 The market has settled a bit.  I'll try to do a year end one.  

-J.

On 11/16/2022 at 10:50 AM, Archaeos said:

Got a feeling Deadpool 3 has helped push this to the front of peoples minds a bit more, when the first trailer for it drops it might even get it higher…

That's what I was thinking.  Plus only a couple blue label 9 8's come up a year, if at all, and the book is over 12 years old now, hard to believe.  

-J.

On 11/14/2022 at 5:25 PM, devald said:

Wow. 

Hell yes wow.  

This is easily Campbell's best cover and I've always thought it would end up being his most sought after.   

This sale would put at #3 on the "most valuable" list.   

-J.

On 11/13/2022 at 4:49 PM, Bosco685 said:

To ignore the critic Emmerich departure backlash would be dismissing quite a strong reaction influence.

Critics calling this the worst movie ever made is wild exaggeration. If you took time out to go see it - in a theater with other moviegoers - you would see what I mean. Not a deep story. But enough to support all the action that makes it fun.

At this point I'm just waiting for hbomax.  At first I was going to skip it altogether but I'll catch it there based on your and a couple other people's comments.   I saw don't worry darling is already on there.  

-J.