mjoeyoung

This needs a BUMP! The obituary is well done.

Don't forget to get your bids in, it is almost closed !!! 1992 Mark Zuckerberg Rookie Card and NFT The card is at $73K (plus 15% BP), but the NFT is only at 4.8 ETH which is ~$6400.00 with only 10 bids. The NFT is a steal at this price!

There was just so much money available from so many places. Crypto was up, stocks were up, you didn't have to pay rent, you didn't have to pay student loans, you were paid for not going to work. A daughter of one of my friends worked at Tuesday Morning over summer break from college during the pandemic. When the local store went out of business (or the entire company, can't remember) she was paid by the Federal government for the rest of the summer. She went back to college with thousands of dollars (I believe the number was close to something over $10k) after barely working her summer job. If the government is going to give you free money, you would be a fool not to take it. Eventually the party has to end.

I missed this on my first read through, the answer is YES. Any book that has enough sales looks something like this. Silver Age Plus looks like this. Golden Age books that have enough sales also look similar. Here is the chart for Crime SuspenStories #22 3.0: The entire market went for the same ride, which is why I don't think GA's seeming immunity will last.

I got a different Warrior for Christmas one year, but I DID have that exact basketball shooter figure! No ice crusher. Yes on the paneling.

The ComicLink 9.6 AS#58 is the lowest sale since 2019. I worked out the averages for a few years for this grade: 2021 $686 2020 $465 2019 $583 2018 $502 2017 $578 2016 $548 2015 $406 That was a really good deal !!!

I don't see how new sales cannot be affected, people have already been cutting back due to the economy and it is only going to get worse. If you look at the GPA charts above (DC# posted his first ), there was steady growth until just the last few years, when prices took off. Usually markets overcorrect, so we are probably looking at 2018/2019 prices at the least, and probably an overcorrect to 2016/2017 prices. It all depends on WHO is paying the current prices. My belief is that the majority is new investors/speculators/flippers who saw $$$$ in comics. As the market falls almost all of these people will leave the market. Many new collectors may leave due to the souring economy, or if they get burned too badly on purchases. Another question is how many collectors saw this as an opportunity to cash out and may leave the hobby. There is a good possibility that at the end of this downturn there will be more books available for sale and a smaller pool of individuals buying them.

Great minds...

Seems more like the canary in the comic mine. If the super key books start dropping before everything else, the underpinnings of the market are weak. I posted something like this about one issue IH #181 9.0. I browse the GPA frequently for many issues from SA to MA and most of them show the same pattern: nice, mostly steady growth, until about 2019 (can be as early as 2018, or late as 2021) and then large increases. Holds true across grades. Here is the chart for IH#181 9.0:

I agree with you, I think we are going to see corrections that put most of the market at 2018 or earlier levels. I believe that most of this uptick in the market has been driven by pure speculation. There is no organic reason for the prices to have jumped so much, especially after there had ALREADY been nice price increases from all the movies. In this Forbes article a guy from HA admits that he doesn't know why the market was so hot. There are still enough "hopeful" speculators that see these falling prices as buying opportunities and they are keeping the market from freefall. We may be entering "dead cat bounce" territory. As for Spawn, there were what, 1.7+ million copies sold? I can remember tons of these in $5 or less boxes. At the time, some of the later issues were worth more because everyone bought #1 and subsequent issues had much lower sales. 10K 9.8s? The 9.6s should be worth more because they are rarer.

Thanks for the info. GA has seemed impervious so far.

Which auction site was this in terms of the GRR's and were they for unsealed graded copies or were they for still original sealed copies? The recently closed Comic Connect auction. An ASM#1 2.5 for $4025 and a JIM#83 1.5 for $1782 These are probably just mistakes, I don't think the price advanced on the day of the auction. They really should put that they are reprints in the TITLE to avoid any mistakes.

That’s an apt description for a few wrong turns I’ve taken Me too. I've been pretty resolute about Silver and newer stuff. I don't really buy 9.8s so I KNOW I'll see the books I want again. It is the Golden Age stuff where I've said "screw it" on a few things and paid more than I wanted.

Just to expand on your last example (Avengers #1 4.0) 2018 Average $2415 2019 Average $2648 2020 Average $2489 2021 Average $4947 $500 of GPA? How about $2500 or more off GPA? I think that is where we are heading. Stock Market today saw some signs of capitulation. It will not be long before that mentality spreads throughout the investment world. Hold on to your butts!

But next year it will be worth $1.5 million! Who would be the fool then?

Complete hyperbole on my part. But I think there is truth to it. There probably are not warehouse full of 9.8s waiting to be found, but what percentage does the 5K in the census represent? The Comicchron guy has said that no Marvel title had monthly sales above 300k (except Star Wars) and WWBN had to have low circulation since it was on the verge of being canceled. I have seen some guesses as to sales. If it had sales of 50K, and half were lost over time, that would still leave another 20K out there. Since Moon Knight seems to have been pretty popular at time, there may be more. It would be interesting to find out what number of sales got a Marvel book canceled in the 70s.

That is why they are introducing the new OH-Paque! slabs to get rid of the newton rings.

Considering all the people who complain about the conditions of the slabs they buy...

I cannot speak for WWBN32, but I have a dozen copies of Spotlight 5 that I bought in the mid-eighties, with a few in the 9.0+ range. There are still sitting in their boxes along with all the other books that I bought decades ago that have exploded in price. At this point, I don't need the money and I'm still collecting. I don't really want to go through the hassle of getting them graded at this time. My intention is to keep by books until for some reason I cannot. I guess this is the difference between collecting and investing / speculating.

I was looking there too (my wife keeps asking me why I'm watching auctions if I'm not going to buy anything). I have been dipping my toes into more GA over the last 4 years. Most of the stuff I've been buying is PCH, but I've kept my eye on other "cool" issues. There seems to be a perception from speculators that anything over a certain age is valuable just because it is old. Everything is not a "classic" cover, and NO, not every L.B. Cole cover is worth thousands of dollars in a 2.0. I expect there to be price drops on GA books eventually. There are probably a lot of people who bought them with intentions to sell within a short time frame. We will see in the next couple of years.

As far as new collectors I think it would be helpful to hear an opposing view to the idea that KOMIKS GO UP!!! There are going to be a lot of people burned if the bottom falls out of the market. If that happens to too many people it would be a big blow to the hobby. The market in many places is not healthy. On ebay the cover to an X-Men #1 sold for as much as I purchased my 2.0 copy for 3 years ago. An individual in the current Comic Connect auction won a JIM #83 in .5 for $4k when a 2.5 sold for less than $8K. People were bidding the GRRs up to outrageous prices. There is no "anchor" to the market. I think we may be seeing a "wave" of buying. People are buying the books until they get too pricey, and then they are moving on to the next seemingly "underpriced" book and pushing the prices up there until they get too pricey, and so on. Eventually the cheap books will run out. And I would just like to say that I dislike when auctions are hyping up the sale by refering to the census as if it is an accurate reflection of how many copies of an issue exist. The reason there are only 3 on the census is because the people who own them don't care about getting things graded, or that until just recently it wasn't worth the money to send them in to be graded.

Thanks for posting that video. That is really interesting, and seemingly pretty damning. As far as collecting video games, I don't really understand collecting "sealed" items. It makes sense with action figures because you can see the action figure and see what type of condition it is in. In order to see if sealed games or VHS tapes work, or to use them as intended, you have to destroy the value. You are just buying a box.

STOP! You're making it worse

Yep. I would expect to see a lot of failed auctions if that starts becoming more normal.

That is an important point. I wonder what percentage of sales are resales of books purchased during this boom time vs. hoarders (don't judge me) who will lock up the books for a much longer time period? I can't even imagine weathering a $54K loss on a collectible. I get upset when I think I've accidently overspent by $50!