mjoeyoung

Here is one example in the current auction that has me scratching my head: Amazing Spider-Man #1 3.5 OW-W Sold for $9600 Amazing Spider-Man #1 2.5 OW CONSERVED currently at $9100

In some ways it is a win-win. Values go up, my books are worth more, but I can afford less. Values go down, my books are worth less, but I can afford more. The only problem is when the books you WANT are high value, and the books you OWN are less value.

I see what you did there... But, if an individual IS bullish on comics and they bought something for $2K and another copy is going for $1K, they SHOULD see it as a buying opportunity.

Not if you made 200K on another 100 books. I meant PER book.

The question is how many people are going to be in the same boat? If they all jump out at the same time...

I am not sure how many New World model investments are working out so well recently, as FTX and NFT investors are finding out.. If you lose $50K on 100 books, that is real money.

I have not had any time to dive into yesterday's sales in the latest Comic Link auction (prices looked strong at first glance), but I wanted to post this image, an example of how "bubbles" form and pop. This chart looks pretty similar to the Dotcom Boom and Bust from 1996 to 2002. It will be interesting to look back in a few years and see how many collectibles follow a similar pattern. My opinion is that comic values as a whole are somewhere around "Bull Trap" and "Return to Normal." Some values seem like bargains now that they have dropped from the heights, but it may be a mirage. It could also be that individual books, or Ages, are at different places. I still think the economy is going to get worse before it gets better, and that it will have an effect on collectible value. Not sure how it is going to turn out, but the ride is very entertaining!

If the census is correct that means both of the highest graded copies have changed hands since 2020. The other one went for $9K in 2020, so pretty similar. Last sale before those was in 2008 for $2390.

If you go to the "About GPAnalysis" page on their website, they state that they "saw a need for timely pricing data in the collectables space." This sale is definitely "out of time," reflecting the market from six months ago. To take it multiple steps further, if someone had entered into a 5 year payment plan in 2017 for an AF#15, should that resulting sale be entered today? For this data point to have ANY value it would need to be placed in the proper context, either by annotating it in some way to address the fact that it is the result of time payments, or placing it with like sales from the time period in which the contract was entered into.

Depends on how much fun the hunt is!

There at least two big holes in his argument that called it into question. The first was shipping, MCS has 99.9% of the time shipped my orders on the day, or next day I've paid for them. The second was that this was obviously a non-auction sale. I myself have never thought about how books purchased on payment plans would affect the GPA. In this kind of environment when values are increasing or decreasing in a relatively short timeframe, it does skew the accuracy of the "current" value.

How many of the people new to comic collecting are in the same boat and will also leave the hobby? If a substantial portion of them sell and leave this will permanently affect value. How many long term collectors have seen this market as the perfect time to sell their collections and leave the hobby? I keep seeing threads about how many rare or key books are up for sale. The current Comic Connect auction has five AF#15s for sale. If the pool of people buying comics shrinks then it is inevitable that values will fall.

Orville AND Redenbacher

Heritage Today vs. GPA (most recent sales first): Amazing Spider-Man #4, 7.5, $5.3K, last 2 sales $5.9K, $6.2K (2021) Amazing Spider-Man #14, 8.0 $8.7K, last Fantastic Four #4, 7.0, $6.6K, last 2 sales $10.5K (2022), $5.8K (2021) Fantastic Four #5 8.5, $39.6K, last 4 sales $60K (2022), $52.8K, $54K, $39.8K (2021) Tales of Suspense #52 8.5 $5.5K, last 4 sales $6.6K, $7.2K, $9K, $8.5K (2021) Detective Comics #168 3.0 $8.4K, last 4 sales $9.7K and $7.3K (2020), $9.6K and $10.5K (2019) Famous Funnies #213 6.0 $9.9K, last sale $12K (2022), 5.5 sold for $7.2K in 2021

Exactly, so much easy money. All the loose monetary policy is coming to an end. The Wall Street Journal has an article about someone who put their Nevada ranch up for sale for $30 million in August 2021, and has had to drop the price to $11.5 million with no takers. Values on everything are falling. Sure there will be outliers due to rarity and the fact that economic downturns don't affect everyone equally. But to quote the article, "(luxury real-estate) buyers (are) spooked by economic uncertainty (and) are suddenly hesitant to overpay and some are sitting on the sidelines waiting to see how things shake out." I feel that this kind of thinking will become prevalent in our world as well.

But $255K would have been a lot sweeter. Is the smart money buying or selling now? If you are investing in comics, I think it is (or was) time to sell, sell, sell. Prices are only going lower from here. I look at the "zoom to the moon" prices in the last few years and I think the world has gone insane. Then I see that Justin Bieber's Bored Ape NFT that he bought for $1.3 million is only worth $70K and the collapse of FTX Crypto Exchange and I see sanity might be returning.

Sorry, just the one that sold yesterday, is the one that sold in 2016. CGC# 120806509 sold in October 2016 for $165K and yesterday for $234K.

According to the GPA that book was purchased in October 2016 for $165K.

And if you go back to 2021 on the GPA you have 2 sales of $245K and $230K.

Bone #1 9.8 sold for $12K, last sale for $13K in November 2020 (both at Heritage). Fantastic Four #1 6.5 for $45.6K, last sale for $50.6K in Sept, but 3 sales this year above $78K. Superman's Girlfriend Lois Lane #106 9.8 sold for $24K, last sale $57.5K in Nov 2021. OUCH. TMNT #1 9.2 sold for $28.8K, last sale $36K in October. Last 3 sales were over $32K. February sale for $27K. X-Men #1 8.0 sold for $54K, last sale in August for $66K, but the previous sales were $95K, $72K, $102K, $90K, and $90K. In 2020/19 this book sold for an average of about $25K.

Did it sell for that price? Also at the Heritage Auction today, Mask Comics #1 3.0 sold for $13.8K, last sale $9.6K in June 2021, 4.0 sold in March 2022 for $11.4K. Mask Comic #2 4.0 sold for $12K, last 2 sold for over $14K. The #1 seems like a strong price, but the #2 is good, but probably disappointing for the seller.

Last sale in this grade was $15.6K in June 2021.

Blue Bolt #105 7.5 sold for $14.4K, previous sale in grade was $15.6K in June 2021 (both at Heritage). Fighting Yank #23 sold for $8400, same book sold for $8400 in April 2021 (both at Heritage). Chamber of Chills #19 8.0 sold for $37K, same book sold for $24K in Nov 2021 (both at Heritage). Chamber of Chills #23 9.0 sold for $27.6, last sale $22.8K in June 2021 (both at Heritage). Mask Comics #1 3.0 sold for $13.8K, last sale $9.6K in June 2021, 4.0 sold in March 2022 for $11.4K. Mask Comic #2 4.0 sold for $12K, last 2 sold for over $14K. Seems like a mixed bag.

Congratulations!

I would say the prices are low for "Heritage Reality," but still seem out of whack for actual reality. AS#15 9.0 sold for $9300. Previous sales this year (all HA) $15K, $11K, and $12.6K. After the Sony Kraven movie bombs this book is headed for a precipitous drop.