LearnedHand

Some observations:

• Sellers have over-graded books well before ebay existed. I think a lot of people who’ve entered the hobby after the advent of CGC, or that can’t recall the pre-2000 hobby, forget how often sellers at shows (or mail order) would substantially overgrade. I was recently reminded of this at a show where an old school seller was set up with all non-slabbed books.  He had, among other very over-graded books, a Detective 140 with chippy pages, stained f/c (with oil that made the cover, in areas, translucent), super rusty staples with 3/4” staple tears into the f/c, some black mold on both covers, very worn corners, edges, and spine.  He had this graded as a F/VF and priced by highest GPA recorded sale price.  A collector, who wanted to buy this book, was trying to point out to the seller how these defects clearly take the book out of F/VF range. The seller’s retort was that he had been grading far longer than CGC, the book is rare, and if someone doesn’t like his grading grade or price, they don’t have to buy it. 

• There are no professional graders.  Last I checked, there’s no curriculum at any accredited institution where one can achieve a comic book grading certificate or diploma for this (part science, part art, part subjective) skill. All we have ever had, since the dawn of people collecting and distinguishing between nicer/crummier copies, is evolving opinions based on gained and shared experiences, and varying degrees of talent or personal interest.  We know this, as there are myriad threads and discussion about how often sellers as well as even the so-called experts get it wrong. 

On 7/21/2023 at 10:42 AM, sfcityduck said:

Good for him! Eras are a particularly weak concept and the “Atomic Era” bears no relationship to their original purpose or use in the eyes of the first modern comic fans who invented the concepts - DC invention of superhero comics and DC modernized revivals and resulting trends.

Agree.
 

The two fundamental eras have also been referred to by fandom as the First Heroic Age and Second.  If GA and SA are still intended to be synonymous with the Heroic Age labels, metallurgical references (bronze, copper, etc.) are misplaced, given there was no general break in superhero themed books between the SA and these subsequent eras. 

Given I’m an Overstreet Advisor, this question may sound a little blasphemous, but do the annually published price estimates in the Guide necessarily impact anyone’s assessment on how much they will pay for any slabbed book that has available prior actual sales data?  
 

On 6/12/2023 at 11:39 AM, tth2 said:

What grade, though?  Mulch-quality GA books, I can believe are still out there.  High grade, not so much.

Don’t disagree, as ends of any spectrum are going to be relatively less common than the 68.5 percent of the bell curve ... but I do think some people take this notion to the extreme.  Putting aside storage conditions that can certainly severely impact things like PQ, however, some people seem to think that the passage of time alone means the collection will generally be in lower grade. Not sure that makes sense... 
 

Continuing to play the speculation game, it’s curious that some boardies state, declaratively, that books such as Superman #1 are rare.  This speculation is usually based on the CGC census.  Looking at it from a different perspective, my understanding is this particular book had a +1M print run, three runs, plus mail-in opportunities for 1939 NY worlds fair attendees to receive a copy.  Even under the conservative assumption that only 1m copied were printed, if even 1% of those copies survived, there would be 10,000 surviving copies. If even 0.1% of copies survived, that’s still 1,000 copies. Definitely a “rare” book?  Maybe...
 

If the motivation is the current Stockholm syndrome, where the mentality is much more about “ROI” and bragging rights of owing even a lesser copy simply because it’s from a designer collection (rather than a love of the actual material), then yes, absolutely!

Pedigree designation:  feel ensuring the history and identification of any meaningful collection is important, but calling this “pedigree” (rather than, perhaps, provenance) is sort of silly.  Also astonished how Rozanski charging Guide multiples - not because the MH was acknowledged as a so-called pedigree at the time, but because he felt the overall perfect condition of many of the books and related hobby excitement warranted the price - somehow forever fused, in some people’s minds, that “pedigree“ designation (irrespective of grade) is somehow synonymous with warranting a price premium. Greatest marketing campaign in the hobby. 

Always confused by the various purported accounts of Batman’s origin.  

If I understand correctly, Kane didn’t create Batman - or maybe he just created the super rough initial idea - and that was a swipe of a character that looked nothing like a “bat” man.  So, Finger actually turned the blonde bright red clad guy into the dark human bat.  But no, the idea of Batman, a dark shadowy figure like a huge bat, came directly from a Shadow pulp.

Kane didn’t create the stories, or do any artwork that wasn’t copied from source material.  So every panel must contain swiped source material. 

Kane at one point said he saw the film The Man who Laughs as a kid, and this inspired him to create the Joker... but no, that’s not true ... Kane didn’t invent the Joker (Finger did).  ... but no, the idea of the Joker came, again, from the Shadow pulps.  

Given Kane is generally no longer credited with creating much if any of these characters and ideas (Finger is) ... but the ideas are now being traced to various swiped material ... Finger stole the characters and ideas? 
 

Confused... 

On 2/21/2023 at 12:03 PM, buttock said:

But if you're a Batman collector and trying to get the best you can, those other options aren't what you're after so why would you buy those?  It's like saying that a guy who wants a Ferrari should buy a Honda Civic.  

Unless you’re saying the purchaser of the Promise 9.6 upgraded, isn’t your “Bat collector” theory refuted by the fact that the book is up for sale? 

On 2/18/2023 at 10:55 PM, tth2 said:

So true.  How many times have people said it cost only $X 10 years ago, and now it's 5 times more expensive?  The reality is that at the time, almost everything seemed expensive too because if it wasn't, it would've been grabbed already. 

Which means that in 10 years, today will be "10 years ago", so people should stop worrying that something costs too much right now and just buy it, because the history of comic collecting tells us that in 10 years, it'll seem like a great deal.  But somehow that never seems to happen. 

Except by the people who bought Promise books the past couple of years! 

True....but under the assumption that these were actual sales to hobbyists, I also think that “remorse” (as someone put it further up in this thread) may come into play - but not in the traditional sense.  I can imagine that after the dust settles on buying a (say) Tec 140 in unbelievable CGC9.6 (!) and some time passes, the person who spent half a million on this type of book may reassess. Yes, this book contains a first appearance, but of a criminal.  And, not even the hero’s alpha criminal (Joker).  Thinking about what other first appearance books can be purchased for $500k, and their comparative potential long-term performance trajectory, creates very many potentially better options. 

Does anyone really understand the value of the "CVA Exceptional" sticker?  

Seems to appear on books primarily auctioned through one auction website (obviously, these books later appear for resale elsewhere).  For several years, I was curious as to the meaning of this sticker, given the books sometimes do look like better than average (for the grade) copies, but sometimes do not.  According to the CVA website, the point of the sticker designation is (in laymen's terms):  for a fee, CVA piggy-backs on the existing CGC grade and gives its opinion on the CGC grade.  Specifically, that the given copy is exemplary for the given CGC grade.  

But, what constitutes an exemplary copy (within the confines of the CVA definition) for a given grade?  At least in my mind, this would need to be a copy that has a harmony of qualities that separate it from other copies for an overall "exemplary" presentation, such as:  bright and vibrant cover colors, great PQ, great centering, correct (on spine) staple placement, etc.     

With these criteria, in some cases I've found it difficult to reconcile the CVA sticker with the book in the case.  The latest example is the Lawbreakers Suspense Stories #11 being re-auctioned through a different seller (Heritage Auctions).  No doubt, it's a pretty copy and the cover colors are vibrant ... but PQ is c/ow.  The staples are clearly on the front cover (in the artwork) and certainly not on the spine.  The centering is clearly "off," obvious from the white wedge along the upper f/c spine and the visibly slanted back cover advertisement.  

Taking into consideration that "average" copies in any grade (of any book) can have vibrant cover colors, better PQ, better centering and/or better staple placement (see the HA archives), I'm not sure what the CVA criteria are for pronouncing a book to be "exceptional."   Is it all about the creases and staining?  Even here, the example above has color-breaking creases and obvious shadows on the b/c.  Again this is just an example.

Can anyone shed light? 

On 11/16/2022 at 10:03 AM, sfcityduck said:

I guess it bears mentioning that the comic market can be seen as having had stages when it comes to pricing

Stage1 - which went from the 30s into the 60s was a time of plentiful supply and very low prices when huge collections could be amassed for less than cover prices by anyone. And many great collections still around today were largely built in that era.

Stage 2 - which went from the advent of the 60s into the late 70s was a time of price inflation due to the emergence of the OPG and more widespread pricing info. This led to widespread trading on information disparities.  Collectors would search for underpriced books “in the wild” or would exploit information disparities about hot book increases between annual guides.

Stage 3 I think started in the 80s as we saw pricing publications come out every month necessitating price increases every month to warrant readers buying those publications and resulting unrestrained hype of allegedly hot books.  This dragged the market into a hot book speculation mindset.

Stage 4 has seen actual sales results become available daily (eBay) and weekly (Heritage) on the internet which has had a bit of a tampering effect on some genres and is generally a healthy development. But it can lead to a lemming effect both upward and downward, and it does make it easier to spread info and opinions on pricing both upward and downward on sites like this.  We all can be market makers  now. Information disparities are decreased and buyers now have plenty of cautionary info available to them. It should make the market more rational as time goes by but challenges remain.

Just a thought.

 

Agree with everything you said, and generally see it the same. 

I do, however, think there's a key distinction between market dynamics pushing prices upward (whether legitimate or not) and people (Board members, YouTube personalities, etc.) routinely expressing the opinion that [fill in the blank] book is undervalued and stating they would pay more than current market.

Market dynamics dictate value.  And, ironically, many of those voices are people that can't afford the given book at current market value.... even though they would pay more. 

This isn't in any way intended as a slight of the OP, the thread just prompted me to reflect. 

Curious - there have been myriad threads and so many YouTube personalities that focus almost exclusively on how this (already expensive) book or that is undervalued.  In one sense, this fundamentally goes to another question:  is the consensus mindset today that we want very many of these books (even those that are still relatively affordable) to be unattainable to the overwhelming majority of us, the collectors? 

Sort of counter to the sentiment seen here when folks like SFCityDuck (sorry if I got the handle wrong) create these wonderful threads about the First Collector or similar, where it was about the hunt and being able to actually build a great collection to enjoy and share with fellow hobby friends. 

Undervalued?  
Haha, hoho, ahahaha!  
When you can’t even buy very many higher grade mainline GA run books for less than four figures, most GA true keys in say 3.0 and higher are well beyond the reach for the overwhelming majority of actual collectors, people are now paying thousands of dollars for a slabbed page, and we think things are under-valued ... sounds a lot like Stockholm Syndrome to me.   

On 5/15/2022 at 9:58 AM, Mr bla bla said:

Liefeld is the friggin Michelangelo of modern comics …👍

With respect, I’ve always thought this is such a deformed and ridiculous rendition of Cap.  Always wondered if the shield, clearly a device to hide the completely absurd proportions/deformities, was the compromise to avoid scrapping this ghastly piece.  

On 5/12/2022 at 9:29 PM, skypinkblu said:

I never look at the stock market except on here...but it seems to be a concern. I guess I have to watch auctions more carefully for a bit.

+1 ... sort of...

Reading this thread, one would think it’s on a commodities or day-trader forum. 

On 4/7/2022 at 11:51 PM, Aman619 said:

we may not agree ... To my eyes, these current million dollar buyers of our comics are "obviously" new to comics.  If I have to backtrack from that Id say 85% of them are.  Can anyone think of ANY of us buying at these prices?  millions for a comic book?  By definition they HAVE to be new collectors because if they aren't, and have loved and coveted and built collections for years, they'd have bought their copies already for far less.  I suppose there may be a few who have been collecting but are now very successful and rich and are spending their money to buy them because they only recently CAN afford them. but, doesn't sound right to me except for a handful of people, and they'd have to have spent 20-30M so far to be responsible for ALL the recent big sales.

I think there are more factors.  

Before the films, the GA and SA interest-to-sale price ratio was, generally speaking, quite different. Prime examples: (1) I used to buy and sell AF15 in V/VG to VG range in the general ~$2k - $3k range as a matter of course. Everyone wanted a copy, no one was paying more. (2) Captain America Comics #1.  There were 3 CGC8.0 copies that did the show circuit for a few years, all priced ~$50k, with no buyers. (3) Detective 33 was a dog for years.  At the height of (pre-film era) desirability for lower grade copies, I was getting offers - from only 3 dealers - who wanted to buy my VG copy because they had customers who could be pushed to pay $5k and no more.

And I don’t agree that everyone who wanted a copy of a given book would have bought it before the price explosion.  That assumes a lot.  I have several friends who were avid collectors in the 1990s but then entirely disconnected to get married and have families. They have now made their proverbial fortunes, are now empty nesters, and want back into the game.  Just this week, two of those friends told me they want to buy certain key SA books in 9.4-9.8 (books that currently sell for $100k+++) “before they are no longer affordable.”  
 

All this to say, the films definitely changed things, but the answer to current dynamics is more complex.   

On 3/31/2022 at 10:11 PM, tth2 said:

Sure there was, for pedigree copies perceived to be the best copy.  Of course prices and multiples weren't as extreme as they became post-CGC, but there could definitely be fierce competition for raw pedigree books and at the time it felt like prices for these books were crazy.

True - but you're conflating things.  

My point wasn't about pedigrees not garnering a pedigree premium prior to slabbing - some did - but because they were pedigrees and all that comes with that.  My point was about a premium being paid today purely on the basis of a book being the "sole highest graded" copy.  So, for simplicity, if it's not a pedigree and it is the sole highest graded copy, it still garners a premium today.  This phenomenon didn't exist pre-slab, as there were no "graded" copies or census.   

On 3/31/2022 at 6:37 AM, GreatCaesarsGhost said:

So true. I dislike buying a book that GPA’s last recorded sale was 2005, or some such. Makes pure guesswork out of figuring value. The current Superman ashcan is a perfect example of having zero idea of value. To me it’s historical significance makes it more valuable than the Marvel 1 pay copy, but there it languishes. 

In my humble opinion, there are two factors that have primarily driven many of the buying/selling dynamics, especially for the more esoteric stuff, like non-key pre-hero DCs, ashcans, dead heroes, etc.  

• The day-trading mentality rampant in the hobby today - thanks to the grading companies that, as a consequence of their appraisal service, turned an art form into a competitive commodity.  For those who remember, when raw books were sold pre-CGC, even on eBay, there was no "highest graded copy" bragging rights to drive prices.  

• Prices.  If someone can barely afford to collect in their "main focus" area, they certainly don't have thousands of extra dollars laying around for the "non-main focus" area stuff.       

On 3/31/2022 at 3:45 AM, lou_fine said:

 

Sadly for collectors who are on the hunt for a copy, More Fun 56 seems to be one of those books which tends to be locked up in long held personal collections as it's been pretty much a whole decade since a nice copy has shown up in the open public marketplace, with this one major exception here:  

https://www.comicconnect.com/item/720102

Sold for $41,500 which I thought was a pretty for a highest graded Church copy back in 2017, and no doubt this white page beauty of a copy which would sell for a whole lot more if it ever came available in today's crypto like red hot marketplace for key and classic cover books like this More Fun 56 here.  

 

Well, boardie "thegoldenage" and I did our part ... we sold our shared MF56 (the CGC 9.0) like a decade (or more?) ago via HA.  And I sold my under-copy (~Fine) via eBay a few years later.  So that's 2 that were not known to the hobby that are now, relatively speaking, in play.  

Full disclosure, I don't know who owns the 9 these days ... but if it does comes up for sale, I think it's def worth a look.  It has all the freshness and tightness of a newsstand copy and feels like it was never read, but doesn't have the designer comic book label or CGC distinction of being top grade to insanely jack up its price. 

On 3/4/2022 at 6:24 PM, Aman619 said:

Others here can speak to the various reasons one or the other is now considered scarcer or scarcer in grade.  What I remember from the advent of Direct sales copies is that before then, all copies were newsstand. Then came a period where Direct sales was the scarcer new thing.  At a point after that, as many more stores preferred the advantages of nonreturnable copies, tables had turned. By the 90s, with one or more comic shops hear by, newsstand copies were scarcer as most comic collectors bought direct copies.  

 For many years afterwards, we were all aware that newsstands were much scarcer, but so were collectors who cared!  I would guess now, there’s momentum toward seeking out the scarcer of the two copies especially for the biggest Copper key books:  direct sale for early issues and newsstand for later ones. It’s all part of the fun of collecting 

Aman619:  this post has zero to do with your very informative post; it’s about the topic generally.

Sorry, but I’ve found this whole newsstand vs. direct sale thang to be yet another marketing scheme to create a distinction without any real difference simply to jack up prices.  
 

Ironically, in speaking to several store owners I know who sold “newsstand“ copies, the resounding message was that it was often more trouble than it was worth to do anything with unsold copies other than stack them up in a basement or sell them in bulk at a discount to kids like me who just wanted back issues no longer on the stand. Conversely, some direct sales store owners in my old neighborhood would tell you the reason they were very often sold out on any number of books was that they would order very conservatively, as unsold copies posed financial risk.  

On 3/9/2022 at 5:55 PM, sfcityduck said:

Agree with above.  The bigger question, for me, is why does CGC think it gets to determine what comic collections qualify as "pedigrees" and which do not?  The pedigree concept pre-existed CGC.  Key pedigrees pre-existed CGC.  CGC has no right to be the arbiter of what is or is not a pedigree.  It holds no trademark on the term "pedigree," has not trademarked the previously recognized pedigrees, and has no right to be the sole arbiter.

For example, if a competing company were to label as a pedigree books not presently recognized by Heritage, but previously recognized by the comic collecting community as a pedigree, would Heritage honor that designation?

If a competing company were to recognize a previously unknown pedigree, would Heritage honor that pedigree designation? 

I would hope the answer to both questions would be "yes."  If not, Heritage and CGC might end up facing claims for anti-competitive behavior.   

Thoughts on a couple of the recurring discussion points:

• Pedigrees were (or maybe still are) defined as fandom acceptance of a given collection as something special, usually reflected by it being documented, revered, and commanding price premiums.  Like so many other things these days, where many would like to put rules around things for simplicity, in the slab era, the grading companies established their own "pedigree" rules to support the mechanics and administration of their business models.   

• To some extent, I think fandom still dictates what's deemed a true pedigree, in that some "pedigrees" command price premiums while others not so much.  If we put the dollars and grading company "pedigree rules" aside for a minute to think about what the "name on a slab" value should be, I suggest it's this:  when a significant OO GA collection surfaces, this is sort of an historic event regardless of whether it fits within any slabbing companies "pedigree rules."  Ensuring any such collection is documented and, in a sense, kept intact can be achieved by noting the collection's name on the slab - but this reimagines the current model.  So, to avoid the current pavlovian response mindset that any named collection should be revered and command premium pricing it's simply a matter of a change in CGC's marketing.  Rather than the CGC "unveiling a new pedigree" drama that conjures visions of a new precious gem, CGC could simply make clear that slabs may display the name of a significant OO GA collection (purely for posterity).  This change would actually better document things, in that many OO collections that CGC declines to name because they don't meet CGC's "pedigree rules" would be named/known for any hobby/historical significance.  And, back to the dollars side of things, fandom will still, as it did before the slabbing companies, determine acceptance, reverence, and value.  

My 0.2 ...

On 2/24/2022 at 9:03 PM, Transplant said:

THE basis?  I'm not sure anyone is saying that.  ONE factor?  You bet your sweet bippy it's PART of the reason for the high prices.  

Maybe...  

While I am truly enjoying this thread, I'm one of those folks who paid many multiples for some of the Promise non-9.8s - without any interest or care about the backstory.  

Academic discussions on how - an MH or Promise 9.0 is equivalent to any other 9.0 or it would have been graded differently - are fine, but often not reality.  As I mentioned elsewhere, I find a time-warp fresh and glossy (but with some technical downgrades) copy superior to a well-preserved aged copy with fewer technical flaws.  In reality, there can be a significant difference in books to which CGC assigns identical grades, due to "intangibles."  As an example, I own 3 copies of a book: the MH in 9.0/W, lesser pedigree in 9.2 c/ow, and a no-name that's a 9.6/ow/w.  I've laid them next to each other for friends (hobby and non-hobby), covered the labels, and have asked "which one is best?"  100% of the time, it's the MH.    

By the way, people posted above about how MHs were selling for 3x Guide due to ... not sure.  For those who remember, they sold for 3x Guide because Rozanski (generally) priced them at 3x Guide.  Seasoned collectors or those with vision, knew what these books were and bought all they could.  Others scoffed at Rozanski and his ridiculous gouge pricing.  And for those who remember, when MHs were resold in print ads, they often weren't assigned "Good/Fine/Mint" condition.  Instead, simply as "Mile High."  

On 2/17/2022 at 9:02 PM, sfcityduck said:

Again you have sharper eyes than me!  I didn't see that book either.  Very impressive!

That Action 141 clearly says "STANGE."  Stange is a last name.  A quick search reveals there were some Stange families in the area where the Dumas family lived.  I have no reason to think they had any tie to the Dumas family.  So this might cut against my theory.

The way that name is written really puzzles me.  All of the "Armands"  written on Promise Collection books are done in cursive (often a messy cursive).  Cursive was taught early, especially for signatures.  So I'm a bit surprised to see a very neat and well-written, almost stylized (like an architect's writing), all caps block print name.  It seems like a mature hand, but it is not only printed -- it is all caps block printed.  Just seems weird. It's also written with what I think is a heavier hand than the "Armand" cursive words.  I can't explain that one. 

If I were a paranoid conspiracy theorist, I'd note that book was sold a week or so ago, and wonder if the signature was added recently to throw people off from the "Armand" names.  But, I definitely am not a conspiracy theorist!  That was not a serious suggestion!  My best guess is that maybe the OO had a friend with the last name Stange.  It is a complete mystery to me.  I can't explain it.

Again, if I'm leading people astray, I hope Heritage tells me.

Or ... like many children did in the 1940s-1950s: they traded comic books with their school and neighborhood friends.  If the Promise collection is what you think it is - the Dumas boy's collection - trading books with friends could explain a few errant books with different names.  

By the way, if "stange" wasn't a misspelling, it's a German surname.  At least where I grew up in NYC, many neighborhoods with immigrants from Europe would be comprised of German, Irish, French, Italian, Greek families.  

Note: my comments above are only data points and agnostic to context, as it's easy to find facts to support most any theory ... 

Amazing post!  Thanks for sharing; and yes, definitely interested in the additional info.  If nothing else, I just learned about two American heroes and a family that instilled grit and integrity in their children.    

I have a sort of pet peeve with out-of-proportion covers!    I'll start this thread with three examples: 

I know this is blasphemy, but let's start with a grail - Suspense #3.  Where is the woman's left leg?  In the position she's in, you should be able to see the back of the woman's left calf or at least her foot.  Worse, the guy outside the pit must be at least 10' tall.  Basic geometry - he is outside the pit and elevated so he is farther way from your vantage point than the guy under him in the pit - and he should appear somewhat smaller.  But he isn't.  He's actually larger than the guy below him in the pit.     

More Fun #66 - where to start?  The Spectre's left thigh is narrower than his wrist.  Much worse - it's an "impossible" cover.  The hangar is supposed to be on the ground.  As such, the Spectre can't possibly be touching the plane that's in the hangar and on the ground without being very bent over.  Do you touch the train on the floor under your Christmas tree by basically extending your arms almost straight out in front of you?  Could you do it by standing upright and putting your arms straight down?  Nope, you can't even touch your knee.  

Last example - All-American Comics #22.  Is the Green Lantern a dwarf?  Or is the villain 12' tall?

Share your "impossible" covers! 

I like the idea of "pedigree" comic books, but full disclosure: I think many are just the product of creative marketing. "No name" comics are seen as less valuable than "name" comics.  Makes people feel more comfortable shelling out big bucks, thinking the return is more secure.  

Also think it's tough to have a legit opinion on pedigree hierarchy (i.e. book quality) without having held the books in-hand to appreciate the differences.  A cover scan can't convey how a SF copy feels and smells like it came out of a time machine, or the dripping gloss on a MH or Promise book.      

Now that CGC has decided to tell the market what a "pedigree" is, rather than allow fandom to still decide, there are ~60 pedigrees, many with varying quality, including some that, on balance, aren't comprised of consistent high-grade copies with fresh PQ. 

There are many great collections out there, including many of the "pedigrees" already named.  For me, however, the collections that epitomize "pedigree" are the San Francisco and Mile High, with honorable mention to the Allentown, Gaines, Chicago, and Spokane.