Poekaymon

Never once said that the books weren't accurately graded, so I have no idea what those links are adding to this discussion.  Just buyer bashing time?  Should I post some links to sellers trying to get double or triple FMV to even it out?  Let me know what the rules of this game are.

Good tip. I considered it, but it turns out 10s are pretty rare and expensive. I’ll just stick to 9.8s that meet my exacting standards—there are plenty of those. 

15 minutes ago, Kevlar said:

Twisting hypothetical? I asked if a seller has 5 copies should they change the picture each time one sells. Here are 4 examples of mutliple listings of almost $500 books (and I've had similar ones with values over $1500):

4 copies @ $550: https://www.ebay.com/itm/352261054154

4 copies @ $400: https://www.ebay.com/itm/352374920648

6 copies @ $350: https://www.ebay.com/itm/202699257665

7 copies @ $400: https://www.ebay.com/itm/352728983501

Again...I'm not arguing that they shouldn't CLEARLY either say "stock photo" or like we say: "DISCLAIMER: Book grade is guaranteed as you are purchasing a CGC book, however picture may not be the exact book as we often have multiple copies with different certification numbers, signature placements and colors, etc."

My claim was should I update the picture each time a book sells and I won't. As I said...if I lose a sale because someone doesn't like that it's not the exact book they know they will be getting I'm ok with that. And if I decide to auction one off I'm just going to click on "change to auction" and it creates an exact copy and I start the auction at $.01. I'm not going to go back and take ANOTHER picture even thought that auction is not long a "quantity 5"....and the next time I auction another I'm using the same picture. Like I said...a modern CGC 9.8 is a modern CGC 9.8....if I feel one is an outlier because a signature is smudged or doesn't show up as easily I will list those separately but otherwise a 9.8 is a 9.8.

1.  What I meant by twisting the hypothetical is that you are arguing a scenario which I didn't even present in this thread.  And you're focusing on the dollar value, when you clearly meet the 2nd condition I listed.

2.  You say a 9.8 is a 9.8, and then you give a precise example of an outlier situation which disproves that.  

3.  To recap: 1) you have a disclaimer 2) you have Quantity X on most of your auctions 3) you list 9.8s separately if they are outlier 9.8s.  In short, none of what I've been talking about applies to you, my man.  Keep on truckin'.

1 hour ago, Kevlar said:

So if I seller has 5 copies of a book, should they update the picture each time a book sells? I've posted a listing of 5 books and all 5 sold within hours...there's no logistical way to do it and listing 5 seperate listing of 5 CGC 9.8 books that are $100 isn't worth the time when 99% of buyers don't care as long as they get a 9.8. Does the extra effort warrant the extra rewards...I say no. Again...I'm only talking about new modern 9.8s.

If I may speak for this other fellow, you are twisting the hypothetical.  The situation which led me to start this thread, and to which he was agreeing is as follows:

1. Books that are over $500.  IE, not books where the CGC grade and auction shipping is half or more of the price, as in your example.  I agree that probably no one cares in that case. (Although even then I really think it'd be nice if sellers posted the actual pic or made it clear the pic wasn't representative, but hey, I'm not going to go crazy over bargain basement books.)

2. An auction that is not "Quantity 5," or a preorder, or an obvious stock photo, or which has an obvious disclaimer telling you that the actual item is not pictured.  I wouldn't have even made this thread if any of those conditions were met.  

3. Rather, a listing for a single, non-preorder book which advertises a CGC certification number, and even has an extra pic "zooming in" on that CGC certification number.

If you meet all those conditions and have five copies to sell, yes, it would be nice if seller's posted the actual item they intend to ship.

That's fine.  This guy doesn't even have a disclaimer, which started this whole thing.  I would never have known except that he posted one that I have sitting right here.

2 hours ago, Kevlar said:

 

But I stand by my original notion: a brand new modern CGC 9.8 is a brand new modern CGC 9.8 regardless of cert number or what it looks like and having a book come in damaged is different.

 

A few different concepts going on here that I find interesting.

1.   There is no consensus about what a baseline 9.8 is.  Because 9.8 doesn't mean flawless, and because the process is subjective, it is in some cases hard to tell what defect CGC noticed and allowed in their 9.8 and what was introduced later in shipping.  I have seen numerous threads over the years (researching this issue) where veterans of these boards, such as yourself,  disagree about whether a blunted corner, for example, was there when CGC graded it a 9.8 or not.  So you can't just say "a 9.8 is a 9.8 unless it was damaged in shipping" unless you have a pre-shipping photograph with which to compare it, which only supports my point that you should probably give them the picture of the actual item.  

2.  Even assuming that there was no shipping damage, I strenuously disagree that all 9.8s are the same.  For me, the fact that it was graded a 9.8 is valuable and a great starting point--but it's only the starting point.  (I very well understand that this is not how you feel, as you have explained.  Maybe I'm even taking the minority view here.)  But allow me to explain my position:  9.8s aren't perfect, as we all know very well.  Accordingly, there are variations in the imperfections that various 9.8s have.  I spend considerable time and effort finding copies that are not only 9.8s but which have the imperfections I don't mind and don't have the imperfections I do mind.  You may find that silly and that I should simply "buy the grade," but this is not a business for me, and the next time they get traded will probably when my kids are cannibalizing my estate.  So if something has a production error that bothers me, but which did not prevent it from getting that grade, such as a messed up corner or production-related color issue or scratch or mark, I still don't want that book.  Sorry if that's unreasonable, but that's how I choose to collect, and I'd be highly surprised if I were the only one.  If someone like Sideshow makes it clear that the photograph doesn't represent the exact item I'm receiving, or if a comic seller such as yourself discloses that the image is a stock image, then it's on me to decide whether I want to risk getting something that doesn't meet my personal standards.   That's fair.  

Let's do an actual example.  I spent 4-5 months to get an SM Platinum 9.8 because there is such a wide variation in 9.8 quality on that book, due to production choices I've heard, that half or more of them look quite bad, and I have no interest in them whatsoever, even at a discount, notwithstanding the fact I agree that they are 9.8s!  In fact, I'm still looking for another one because even after passing on 20 or so 9.8s I've seen in the last 5 months, the one I settled on recently still bothers me.  ( Even still there are like 5 or more on Ebay right now and they are all even worse!)  With that in mind, say I spend another 6 months (or a year or five years) looking and someone finally posts a 9.8 that I feel is actually an improvement.  It has a CGC number which checks out.  Obviously I'm willing to pay a premium.  I buy it, but what comes is a different book, with a different number, and it is worse than both the one I already have and the one that was advertised.  If you, or that seller, or anyone else here says 'suck it up, it's still a 9.8,' then I'm sorry but we're going to have a problem.  I'm not an expert in eBay, but assuming the CGC #s didn't match and I could point out some visual differences, I am confident I would win a dispute.

37 minutes ago, Kevlar said:

I don't think it's laziness as my previous post says. It's simply how much time should be put into multiple copies of the same item. Like I said...Target doesn't list individual pictures for anything they sell. People might say that collectibles are different, but when they are new copies I disagree. Individually hand-painted statues from Sideshow are collectibles...they don't put up multiple listings when they sell their items...that's the way I look at it.

With Sideshow and Target or whatever, you're talking about stores that have hundreds or thousands of copies of the same item, which item does not gain or lose value for nearly imperceptible flaws.  And no one expects to get the exact item that had the picture taken--in fact, Sideshow puts right on the pic that it's a prototype, and you don't know the sideshow serial number ahead of time, either. And many of the big stores will put in a single sentence in that says something like 'Actual product not pictured' or the like.  Not remotely a fair analogy, in my opinion.  I can maybe understand in the comic book realm, if you are doing serious volume, and you are willing to issue refunds when your method of not giving them they thought they were buying backfires.  I also don't really care if they are under a hundred bucks or so.  But as I said earlier in this thread, before like 2 pages of nonsense:

1.  This seller is not high volume.  I've looked a few times and he never has more than 40-50 up at once. 

2.  These books are in the $500-1k range

3.  There aren't many of these particular books even out there, so I would be extremely surprised if he has more than 2-3 of each.

Now let's look at "mycomicshop."  At the time of this post, they have 581,390 books up.  And yet, I just looked at a couple of their identical books, and they still managed to get unique scans for each.  I really don't think this is a high bar.  

Look, call it laziness or efficiency or whatever, if you need to use a stock photo or want to reuse photos from your past auctions, and you don't think it matters, fine.  But at least disclose that fact to your customers.  Not hard to put in a single sentence to avoid any confusion.  Not sure how this is a controversial proposition. 

If a 9.8 is more like 25% of these variant shop raws, then I would expect 9.8s to be 4x the price plus $30 or whatever for CGC's services.  But that definitely isn't the case.  So I'm not sure what the disconnect is.

Anyway, I just preordered some cheap raws from Mr. Campbell. Will send them in and see how we do.

1 hour ago, Hollywood1892 said:

You didn't read it

He told me that he was sending a 9.0 because he didn't have the 8.5 in stock

So he posted a pic of the 8.5 on ebay, I bought it, a couple days later it wasn't shipped so I emailed him and that was the response

I definitely read it.  I may not have understood it correctly, but then I did say that was a possibility to begin with.

Even still, given your clarification, I'm not sure where I went wrong since you are describing the same situation I understood.  You bought an 8.5 and received a 9.0 and asked what I would do in that situation.  Didn't I address exactly that?  You  may have to write as if you are addressing a 5 year old--this ain't the newbie forum for nothin'.

3 hours ago, Hollywood1892 said:

This is a good thread

It happened to me with a Venom 3 SS Cates and Stegman

I was frustrated at first, but I imagine they had multiple copies so I got over it and still gave them 5 stars on feedback

But what would you do if this happened to you?

@Poekaymon

If I’m understanding you correctly (which is by no means a given as the memes and banter are largely going over my head), you are asking if I would still have concerns if a seller posted pictures and serial number of a book, I bought it, and then they sent me a totally different book but which was in a slab with a higher number on it. 
 

First consideration is whether the 9 is actually an upgrade over the 8.5. Ie, if I bought a 9.6 that looked like a 9.8 from the pictures, and then I received the 9.8 I mentioned earlier in this thread (which although in a 9.8 slab would assuredly not be graded at 9.8 or even 9.6 if regraded), then yes I would ask for a return. That’s an easy one.  But I assume this is not what you are asking, and for the purposes of my being in this hypothetical situation, the book that I received is actually an upgrade. 
 

So the question is really whether I would complain if I bought a book and was given a different book that was actually a superior book. Well, I would alert them. I still think it’s a better practice to actually post the item that you are selling or at least disclose that the actual item isn’t pictured. So in your hypothetical, I would say “you realize you sent me a 9.0 right?”  Just as I do when the cashier gives me too much change. If they already know (as in what happened to you) or don’t care, then that’s that. Probably an unsurprising answer. I would have thought it obvious that I was only concerned about getting a worse book. Similarly, I also wouldn’t demand a return if I bought a Hulk 171 and they sent me a nice copy of a Hulk 181, though I’d still point it out to the seller. 
 

Just now, theCapraAegagrus said:

That's assuming intentional fraud, though, which "reputable" sellers wouldn't venture into. Not the same thing.

Well now you are assuming reputable.  I did start out saying "seemingly reputable."

Anyway, I wasn't calling the cops on him.  I specifically said that I was still considering bidding on it.  My only point was it is cause for concern and if nothing else, may make someone wonder.  Probably better to just post an actual pic or say that you're using a stock photo, imo.

Just now, theCapraAegagrus said:

Then what was the point of that 2nd paragraph...?

Advertising an undamaged copy, that has been assigned a specific identifying number, and which you do not own, and then sending a different book which has been previously damaged.

1 minute ago, theCapraAegagrus said:

Receiving a "9.8" damaged in-transit is not the same as fraud.

I have to agree with @BaronSamedi here. It's not fraud. 1 9.8 should be unrecognizable from another 9.8 (extreme circumstances, like centering, notwithstanding).

That wasn't what I was saying at all.  Receiving a 9.8 which was damaged in transit is not fraud--I agree.

42 minutes ago, BaronSamedi said:

It isn't actually fraud.

It becomes fraud if the serial number isn't legit, its a fake book, seller takes buyers money and doesn't send product.

Granted it is misleading insofar that your getting a different book then the one pictured, but put it this way "You want 9.8 Thor 337 and you did and win on the product pictured, but when your product comes in and it is a 9.8 Thor 337 with a different CGC serial number, rather then panic you go to a reputable grading site to determine it's legitamacy, and it turns out it is exactly what you got" are you offended?

It is because it is not the item being offered.  If there was no picture or CGC number posted, like with a preorder or something that was clearly a stock photo, then that would be different.  Then you're getting exactly what was offered--a 9.8 Thor 337 with no defining characteristics.  But if the auction has detailed photographs, of a book that exists, out in the world, with a specific CGC number and the specific variations that exist across 9.8s of the same book, and you buy it based on that picture, then you should be getting what is pictured. 

I have a 9.8 right here that got severely shaken and the cover is practically falling off.  Staples almost out.  Like half an inch of first page showing under the cover.  I have hundreds of 9.8s and this is by far the worst--uglier than most 9.6s.  Absolutely no one would be happy receiving this book, but it's in a 9.8 slab.  If I made an auction using a photo of someone else's 9.8 copy of the same book, that was visually flawless, and then sent the winner my damaged book, there is not one person on this board that would be happy receiving it.  

The problem is there are plenty of 9.8s floating around that are 9.8s in name only due to shipping issues or whatever. And even when two books are legitimate 9.8 there are variations. If simply saying 9.8/white was enough, no one would ever need to post a pic—they could just type the CGC number and call it a day.  Pretty sure that wouldn’t fly when combined with a no return policy. Only reason I am considering it here is that it seems to be a reputable shop, though they really don’t post enough books each week to justify the laziness imo. 

6 hours ago, BaronSamedi said:

Thankfully!

That would be the first thing I would worry about if the book went back up a couple of days after purchasing.

I would be satisfied though if I got the same book with another serial number., I can see how taking pics of hundred of the same book could be time consuming.

Preorders or common books would be one thing, but the ones I am talking about are in the $5-700 range and don't have hundreds of 9.8s in existence.  I think "laziness" is a bit too gentle of an explanation (even if accurate) for what is actually fraud.

Anyway, I'm debating putting in a bid on the one I missed last time which I'm guessing will arrive as a similar 9.8 with a different number.  But as I am of the opinion that not all 9.8s are equal, if I bought one that in any way negatively deviated from the pic, then I'd be putting in a claim. Not sure if worth it.

What do you guys make of this?  So a seemingly reputable store had a lot of reasonably limited 9.8 graded stuff up (like 20-100 "graded at" on the census).  I bid on and/or bought several items.  He did deliver.  Later I did a search for one of the ones I didn't win and noticed it was back up.  Looked pretty familiar, so I compared it to the one I bid on, and lost, and sure enough it's the same picture and CGC number.  Then I searched and found several other relisted items that he had put back up--identical CGC numbers.  Now I guess you could think well maybe the buyer backed out or something, but: one of the items he has relisted is sitting right here in my hand--same CGC number.

I guess the least sinister explanation is that he actually has multiples of each item and just did a bunch of relists and it automatically used the same pictures?  I don't sell on Ebay so I have no idea how that works.  But even if that's true, the ones that are up right now for bid are not the actual ones that the people will be getting when they win.  That's an issue, isn't it?

Not sure what board policy is but I'm pretty curious about what is going on here.  Can message out some links if anyone is interested.

True though I think at better than 50% it’s a winning gamble. Thanks for your input. 

Not to be cute, but I figured that was the case.  Technically "can get" could mean a chance anywhere from 1% up.  

Let me try a different way.  If you bought 10 of his raws, how many would you personally expect to come back 9.8?

TLDR: if you ordered two copies of any raw direct from Campbell's shop, would you expect at least one of them to come back 9.8?

So I recently had a long thread on here where I swore off high ratio variants that come out of the gate at hundreds of dollars.  But I'm still enticed by "cheap" artist variants.  I've never ordered a raw though.  So  I'm hoping someone who actually orders raws directly can fill me in.

Take, for example, JSC.  I don't collect signatures, and like to stick to blue label 9.8s.  I've been tempted to get some of his variants directly in raw, unsigned form, but they give zero indication of condition, and in fact have a disclaimer, so I have no idea how many I'd need to get to land on a 9.8.  If it takes more than 2, I think it is basically always going to be better to just get a graded one later. And yet, his unsigned virgin stuff sells out very quickly, limited to two copies per order, so I guess they must be pretty high quality.

22 minutes ago, valiantman said:

 

Digging that spike in 1990.  Damn you Spider-Man 1.

6 minutes ago, revat said:

I guess I would say, there's a whole trove of pricing history available between GPA, ebay, and other websites to help you track prices over time.  Depending on your level of statistical expertise an the time you spend, there should be enough data about the starting points of the key variants and high ratio variants to give you an idea.  Of course, even then you'd still have to pick correctly about which cool cover or rare 1st appearances to focus on.  Maybe if you do enough analysis you can find common attributes to help you guess which ones experience price explosions.  Of course that takes a lot of time an effort, and you won't know until you're 'done' if it was worth the time and effort.

Some people may have some theories, but those theories take time and effort and expertise to explore, and have value that diminishes if those theories are distributed to random internet strangers.  Good luck.

I'd say buy what you like for now while keeping an eye on trends to see if you can locate any weaknesses in the matrix.  Make notes, read up, and take the occasional risk. 

Yeah, been trying to track some of the 2010-2015 variants since around the time I posted this thread, and it certainly seems to be strongly negative over time, except for some outliers.  

In response to the "just get the covers you like" comment, I think that's valid, but it's probably mostly valid for raws or 9.8s in the $100 range.  (ie, even if it goes to the price of a slab, well, you can still look at it and fondle it or whatever at a low loss.)  But some of these variants come out of the gate at $3-500 raw and $500-$1k 9.8 and I have to believe that's pure speculation range.  

Some recent examples include Hunt for Wolverine 1:1000, Incoming 1:500, Venomverse 1 1:1000.  I like all of these covers and artists and characters, but at their price points I really don't think you can just "buy it if you like the cover/artist."  At least for a person of average income, you probably need some confidence that they will hold value.  

1 hour ago, Deadpoolica said:

Don't buy a variant for speculation purposes....buy it because you like the cover/artist/character

Don't buy anything for speculation, only buy what you like....whole market could crash in 10-30 yrs 

 

I was alluding to this idea in another thread. I’m really curious about whether or not we get any new blood in this game. Otherwise who’s going to want this stuff when us old farts start dying. Going to be some estate sale bargains.

TLDR: Talk me out of Incoming #1 (1:500) or high ratio variants in general.

As someone who just, a few months ago, returned to the hobby after a thirty-year absence, the most striking thing to me about the industry today is variants.  High ratio variants, commission covers (and/or signed/remarked) on artist storefronts, numerous comic store branded variants...  it's actually staggering.  I'm glad my poor, OCD teenage self didn't have to deal with this.  Add in slabs, which is all I personally have been buying the last few months (CGC 9.8 or die), and it's basically an entirely different hobby.  Not saying it's better or worse--I'm enjoying it--but it's certainly different.

I mostly started getting silvers/coppers out of nostalgia.  Wolverine was my favorite in the 1980s, so Hulk 181 is an obvious choice, as are his various first issues, and just other random stuff like Hulk 340.  These are mostly ones I enjoyed as a kid, but I wasn't super careful about condition, and I read them many times each, so now I am willing to pay a premium for 9.8 copies to improve upon what I once had and have since lost.  I'm also willing to speculate a bit on 1st appearances of other characters which I either wasn't crazy about before or which came out later, hence my pickups of Wolverine Origins 10, Batman Adventures 12, and ASM 194.  

So in general I guess I'm going for 1) pure nostalgia, 2) first appearances, and 3) 9.8 condition where most of the copies are much lower.  Now how do modern variants fit in with this?  Should they even be a thing?  To start, I put them in 3 categories of declining appeal:

1.  Variant first appearances.

These seem pretty defensible under any standard.  For example, Wolverine Origins 10 (third claw) and Spider Verse 2 (Land).  I think I can get behind either of these because firsts are always firsts, and if either character blows up, the variant versions should be the better ones to get.  Agree?  (Disclosure: I have the Origins 10 and plan to get the Spider-Verse Land.)

2.  Ultra famous variants

Now, I'm a little more unsure about these.  For example, Spider-man 678 (venom), Wolverine (Deadpool outfit), X-23 (Dell'otto), X-force 20 (Venom).  (Just picked up the X-23 and was bidding on the X-Force but tapped out when it got close to 1k.  678 is just too dear in 9.8, but it's on my long-term watch list.)  Beyond scarcity, these seem primarily driven by the covers, which seems like a serious problem going forward, but at least they come up when anyone googles "top variants" or w/e.  Whether that is still the case in, say, 2050 is another matter.  678 may actually be the "best" Venomized cover they ever do, so I guess I can get on board with it, but I really don't know about the others.

3.  Everything else - including the vast majority of high ratio stuff

I bought a bunch of these, and now I have some buyer's remorse.  These covers are usually cool, so I guess I can hang them on the wall, but in terms of any sort of speculation value, what is going to make people want them in 10, 25, 50 years?  Just the fact that it was 1:500 or 1:1000 when it came out?  If the cover is going to drive the desirability, it's going to have to be the best cover that is ever made for that character (see ultra famous variants above).  Otherwise, what's the point?  Because there will be more in the future that are as good or better with as high or higher ratios.  As just a few of hundreds and hundreds of examples:  ASM 700 (1:200), ASM 800 (1:200/1:500), X-Men 510 (sketch), Venom 6 (1:1000), Return of Wolverine #2 (1:1000), Daredevil 600 (1:500)... hundreds more.  These are all cool covers, and I can see why people are excited when they come out (and I've fallen prey to that myself), but why is someone in twenty years going to want that 2015 1:500 instead of the 2025 or 2035 variants to come?  

Taking ASM 700 (the 1:200 Ditko) as a recent example: I see that at one point it went for $2k or more and had a recent sale, at the time of the article, of $1,170 in 10/17 (https://www.sellmycomicbooks.com/variant-comics4.html).  Back in like October 2019, when I first came back to the hobby, I made an ebay offer of $900 on a $1099 BIN for a 9.8.  The offer was refused with no counter.  Since then I have seen several go for around $700, including on this board.  From over $2k to $700 in 7 years is worse than buying a house in 2006.  And I consider this a pretty good issue, all things considered.  Makes me wonder.

So how do you guys feel?  Do you agree that the variant first appearances or some of the really famous ones might be worthwhile, but the majority of 1:200/1:500 stuff isn't?  I was about to buy this Incoming #1 1:500 when I thought of making this post.  I guess I want you to talk me out of it.

Thanks, everyone.  I picked up the HCs for House of X, The Vision, Annihilation, Planetary, and vol 1 of Immortal Hulk.  Also got Preacher vol 1 though I don't think anyone here recommended it.  If none of these work out, I'll just go back to collecting slabbed covers.