Wizard and OS are not the real price guides... Ebay is!

[shiverbones]

yeah Shield, ebay is a great market for a book like that. Was that the great christmas cover one?

[Joanna]

I use the lesser known Wizard of Os grading guide.

[lighthouse]

I use the lesser known Wizard of Os grading guide.

[Darthdiesel]

Are you sure you highlighted the right lines for blazingbob?

[Kevin76]

We need someone to publish a new guide using Ebay as the primary source for pricing. We need cheaper books to renew interest and make back issues accessible for younger collectors and readers. We need comic buyers with confidence in their ability to resell comics at a future time. We don't need Wizard, OS or any other smoke&mirrors.

 

we need you to STFU

[ninanina]

 

Uh, that would be the last post on page 3.

[Comiclover1973-migration]

eBay is another guide for determining prices

 

Is there any proof that Wiz or OS has ever used Ebay as a factor in their pricing?

 

Sales for the exact same item vary by 10-100% over a short time period.

 

Sales on Ebay vary so much due to the quality of the listings. I am not saying that every single Ebay book described as "near mint" should be used. Minimums would be needed for the amount and quality of feedback, size and resolution of scans, return policies, etc. Once cetain criteria are met, these prices would be factored into pricing.

 

How much is your house worth? What's its appraised value? Now how much could you get for it if you had to sell it tomorrow? Big difference.

 

But the converse would also be true right? How much extra would I receive if I waited 1 or 2 years to sell my house? i could get a lot more money. This is exactly why comic selling prices are erroneous. A dealer running a store can tack up a book on a wall and wait months or even years for tht book to sell. Does waiting that long mean that this is the "true" value of the book? It works both ways.

 

To continue your housing analogy. This is how it would work if selling my home was like selling comics at a retail store. I would get a phone call from a major real estate agency asking me how much that "I" thought my house was worth. Then the real estate company would list prices that could be 2X or 3X the price of the house that sold right beside me because "I" said so. Buyers would see my home listed as "fair price" and assume my house was worth that much, ask me to take a "deal" and give them 20% off.

 

Of course in the real world, the real estate agency would not allow me to list my tiny bungalow for a million dollars, because it would be a waste of time for them and no bidder in his right mind would pay 800K for a tiny bungalow. It's a totally rediculous method to publish a price guide where the prices are collected through polling comic book stores about their selling prices.

 

I could mark down 10 random books in my store to a penny a piece and mix them into the boxes. If after a week I still have some left, does that mean those books aren't even worth a penny? No... It means the right customers didn't find them.

 

Oh but have you seen a golden age Superman comic "slip through the cracks" and sell for a penny? The books being sold have BIN or opening bids, too high, that is why they are not bought, not because people simply couldn't find them.

 

They tell you that high grade stuff from 1973 is worth more than low grade stuff from 1967. They tell you that photo covers from the 50's sell better than similar books without those covers.

 

That's great, but I am not concerned with common sense. I am concerned with specifics. Guides use specific dollar values. It does not state "more than Daredevil" when you research the price of ASM #10. Of course early Spiderman sells for more, as Spiderman is the most popular marvel Superhero. But by how much more should Spiderman sell? What if it became apparent that older comics weren't selling as well as they did 2 years ago. Can you rely on a store with thousands of older comics as assets to tell you that?

 

And just to avoid some replies about my one-day comments versus eBay's 7-day auctions, when's the last time you browsed the Silver Age listings that were on day 4 of 7.....

 

Actually I look at new lisitings all the time, that have BIN prices. I have won some great deals this way. I also have a precise set of books I am looking for and I prefer to shop in Canada to avoid possible duties/taxes. So I look for bargains early, watch them and snipe them. Everyone has different ways to shop.

 

 

[Comiclover1973-migration]

 

And what about all the books that have never made it to ebay, or made it to ebay only a few times? How many grades would you break out for the ebay-based guide, and how many of those grades would be suitably represented as having sold on ebay for each title? And don't be fooled by the huge number of postings in the various comic book catagories. Many of them never get a bid.

 

And how about all the comics that a store DOESN'T have. And how about all the dealers that have no idea how much Archie #56 is worth bcause they haven't sold one in years. Guides estimate some of their data. They obviously do not poll hundreds of stores on their selling prices on thousands of books.

 

 

[Comiclover1973-migration]

hey comiclover1973 i have sold HUNDREDS of comics on ebay for over guide. You dig out a great book like Perfect Crime with the strangulation cover in low grade and watch guide melt away. Every book has its strength in a different market. If i had that perfect crime at a local show at guide, it would still be there. If i have a new Hulk #25 at a local show could i get $40, yup. On ebay, maybe $20. Guides are irrelevant knowing HOW to sell WHAT is the key.

 

But it must have taken you a long time to figure this out. I'm sure you didn't just decide overnight which comics were easier to sell in person and which ones should be sold on Ebay. Wouldn't it be great to have a guide that reflected the actual Ebay selling prices so that you wouldn't have to waste all of those listing fees or sell for less than you could have made?

[shiverbones]

well the point of the guide is to GUIDE you to the value of a book. Its ging to be somewhere around the price printed. sometimes. There are way too many factors to ever have anything correct every time. It would have to be published regionally first of all since Kansas can not get the same price for books New York can. Secondly it would have to be printed every 3 days to keep current, and then it would still be wrong because there is no such thing as definitive value in comics. Sorry, its just impossible.

[sfilosa]

Quick Points:

 

For prices to be more accurate in either guide, they must determine if they are using ONLY CGC'd books or RAW books.

 

The only way to mix the two, would be to subtract a certain amount of the grading cost from the CGC final sale price.

 

 

Pretty much everyone knows that O/S guide is way to low on most NM books (especially GA to BA) and way too high on most Fine or below books.

 

So eBay, Heritage, etc. can possibly help determine the correct multiple that the books are currently selling at.

 

I

[duncan36]

I'm personally surprised eBay doesnt either publish eBay Collectible Price guides themselves based on their online selling prices tabulated over time or contract out the data to someone else. Maybe they're too busy raking in their billions to be concerned with what would amount to smaller potatoes.

[lighthouse]

Sales on Ebay vary so much due to the quality of the listings. I am not saying that every single Ebay book described as "near mint" should be used. Minimums would be needed for the amount and quality of feedback, size and resolution of scans, return policies, etc. Once cetain criteria are met, these prices would be factored into pricing.

 

The only reason to put together a new guide is to make money... Who do you see as the target audience for this guide and how much do you think they will pay to use it?

 

It's a totally rediculous method to publish a price guide where the prices are collected through polling comic book stores about their selling prices.

 

No more ridiculous than CBG's method, which is to poll comic buyers as to how much they pay for comics... Which price do you think is more accurate? The price you can expect to pay to buy a comic with minimal effort (a retail store price)? Or the price you can expect to pay to buy a comic with maximum effort (a buyer's price)?

 

Cosmic-Spider-Man bought a couple 35c Spidey variants for $2 each on eBay last week. Those variants cost him $2, plus the huge amount of time and effort he spends hunting for them each and every week. Some 35c Conans sold in the $125 range on eBay this week. They were properly labeled, and it took a minimum effort for the buyer to find them. Which is the more accurate price?

 

CBG says that if I look hard enough I can expect to find NM copies of Fantastic Four 161-167 for $4 each... Wizard says I should expect to pay $10-16 for the same issues. Both perceptions may be accurate. It may be possible to find these books at $4 each with enough effort, but a typical buyer is likely to see prices in the $10-16 range... How much is your time worth?

 

Oh but have you seen a golden age Superman comic "slip through the cracks" and sell for a penny? The books being sold have BIN or opening bids, too high, that is why they are not bought, not because people simply couldn't find them.

 

But by the same token, if a BIN is set too low, and the comic sells in a matter of minutes for half what it could have sold for in days, then what? Is the "value" based on the realized sale price?

 

 

Quote:

------------------------------------------------------------------------

And just to avoid some replies about my one-day comments versus eBay's 7-day auctions, when's the last time you browsed the Silver Age listings that were on day 4 of 7.....

------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Actually I look at new lisitings all the time, that have BIN prices. I have won some great deals this way. I also have a precise set of books I am looking for and I prefer to shop in Canada to avoid possible duties/taxes. So I look for bargains early, watch them and snipe them. Everyone has different ways to shop.

 

You make my point for me here... You look at new listings with BIN prices... Any book that is going to get your money is going to do so early on... The bulk of eBay business is done in a 24 hour period, the first 18 hours of a listing and the final 6. The hours in between are there solely to let a few more people find the auction. Look over your own buying history and see how many books you first found on day 4 of 7... Not very many...

 

I have my own complaints about price guides. Prices don't climb fast enough and they don't fall fast enough. But I don't follow the guide, I lead it. I am perfectly willing to charge $10 for a book that came out last week if I can't get any more from my suppliers and none of my customers will sell me more copies. I am also perfectly willing to set my price for Spawn #1 at $3 (which I did in July of 1999 when Wizard still had it at $18) if I can buy copies all day for $1... My price on Y: The Last Man #1 was at $15 before issue 3 came out, and today I have people offering more than $30 for the copies I have left. My price on Ultimates #1 is still at $1.50... That's right, $1.50... because I have an unlimited supply of them at 95c each and there is no reason for me to charge any more than $1.50, even though Wizard says it's a $10 book...

 

The goal of a perfect collectibles price guide is to predict the future... and anyone who gets good enough to do it with any consistency won't be staying in collectibles. They'll be taking their econometric models to Wall Street and never looking back...

[duncan36]

The only reason to put together a new guide is to make money... Who do you see as the target audience for this guide and how much do you think they will pay to use it?

 

The same people who subscribe to GPA, as well as the same people who buy the Overstreet guides and Wizard guides primarily for price guides.

As far as the problems with raw grades, well it doesnt really matter if its misgraded, the bid price is the price someone is willing to risk hoping to get the listed grade. I dont know anyone who bids on a NM book and hasnt factored in the thought that it could very well be in the VF range. From that viewpoint the bid is valid and no different from comic shop sellers who pretty much perenially overgraded their books in the pre-CGC days,

I'd love to see eBay price guides and I have reason to believe it'll happen sooner or later.

[Shield]

Here's my problem with using EBAY as a price guide:

 

1. Bidding wars, just for the sake of outbidding your foe.

2. Certain books may go really high ONCE, because 2 people really want it. Once Ebay buyer #1 has "his" copy, if a 2nd issue comes up on ebay, it may go for 1/2 of the initial sale price, because bidder #1 is no longer jacking up the price.

3. Ebay buyers (myself included) are on there looking for a great deal. I'd be curious to find out if prices go for more around income tax return time due to the availablitily of extra spending cash.

4. Very inconsistent grading, small pictures, etc. No way to compile a price guide when you don't know how to determine the grade accurately. At least for raw books.

 

Just my .02

[valiantman]

RE: Shield...

Devil's Advocate comments by Valiantman in RED

Here's my problem with using EBAY as a price guide:

 

1. Bidding wars, just for the sake of outbidding your foe.

At least we know two people actually wanted the book. Shop sales only have one "bidder", and it's always a "buy it now" price that tells us almost nothing.

2. Certain books may go really high ONCE, because 2 people really want it. Once Ebay buyer #1 has "his" copy, if a 2nd issue comes up on ebay, it may go for 1/2 of the initial sale price, because bidder #1 is no longer jacking up the price.

Obviously, a good guide will have 10 or more sales per book.

3. Ebay buyers (myself included) are on there looking for a great deal. I'd be curious to find out if prices go for more around income tax return time due to the availablitily of extra spending cash.

So, the Ebay price is actually lower than the "collector value"?

4. Very inconsistent grading, small pictures, etc. No way to compile a price guide when you don't know how to determine the grade accurately. At least for raw books.

You have to assume the price is for a book below the grade described,

since bidders are taking these things into consideration when they place the bid,

another reason to believe the book would be worth even more than the Ebay price

if it was purchased "in person".

 

I'd really like to know the "average price paid" for auctions of raw books on Ebay. I can determine when the seller is better or worse, with better scans, etc., but it would be nice to know the last 10 copies sold for an average of $X.XX.

[Shield]

You're all over the map, Mr. Devil's Advocate.

 

So, a good guide will have 10 or more sales per book, eh? Ok, show me 10 completed sales of Suspense #3, or Pep #22, or Archie #2, etc. etc. What? There's only 1 or 2? In completely different grades? How can you price it then?

[duncan36]

You're all over the map, Mr. Devil's Advocate.

 

So, a good guide will have 10 or more sales per book, eh? Ok, show me 10 completed sales of Suspense #3, or Pep #22, or Archie #2, etc. etc. What? There's only 1 or 2? In completely different grades? How can you price it then?

 

I'm sorry but its not fair to use omissions in a guide for a reason that the guide would be useless. A consolidated price guide containing eBay data would be useful to some period, I think the problem we're running into is that some are scared that it would devalue their collections if an eBay price guide became standard. Personally I'd be content with an OS guide which used the eBay data to formulate more realistic prices. Though a seperate eBay guide wouldnt be bad either.

[lighthouse]

You're all over the map, Mr. Devil's Advocate.

 

So, a good guide will have 10 or more sales per book, eh? Ok, show me 10 completed sales of Suspense #3, or Pep #22, or Archie #2, etc. etc. What? There's only 1 or 2? In completely different grades? How can you price it then?

 

I'm sorry but its not fair to use omissions in a guide for a reason that the guide would be useless. A consolidated price guide containing eBay data would be useful to some period, I think the problem we're running into is that some are scared that it would devalue their collections if an eBay price guide became standard. Personally I'd be content with an OS guide which used the eBay data to formulate more realistic prices. Though a seperate eBay guide wouldnt be bad either.

 

That certainly isn't my concern... accurate valuation doesn't bother me a bit...

 

But there is a difference between describing your wants and arguing effectively for their fulfillment.

 

I would like to have a quality Tex-Mex restaurant within 40 miles of my house, that served quality tortillas, chile con queso, fajitas, borracho beans, and pico de gallo. I can describe for you all the inadequacies of the local restaurants. I can describe all the flavor combinations I would like to see. I can give anecdotal evidence of the quality of Tex-Mex food elsewhere in the country. But none of that will do anything toward the construction of a quality Tex-Mex restaurant within 40 miles of my house...

 

I don't believe that an eBay comic book price guide would be a profitable operation. I don't believe the customer base is adequate. I don't believe an appropriate marketing plan exists. I don't believe there is an opportunity to garner enough market share to make it worthwhile for the investors. The data collection process is too labor-intensive and the product is too difficult to sell. A printed guide would be as large as the Overstreet and would need to be released every couple of weeks. An online guide would be of no use at conventions and retail stores.

 

No one here has made a compelling argument that an eBay comic book price guide would be profitable. In fact, no one here has argued anything more specific than the existence of a target audience. Fine, there are comic collectors out there. That also means there is a target audience for a business offering custom auto painting to transform your SUV into a driveable recreation of the cover of Fantastic Four 48...

 

Sit back and dream of an eBay price guide if you like. But even a casual examination of the logistics will show that it's just that, a dream. So dream away... I'll be dreaming of a good Tex-Mex restaurant... while, in Sarasota, Steve Borock dreams of repainting his car to match the cover of Cherry Poptart #1...

[Shield]

You're all over the map, Mr. Devil's Advocate.

 

So, a good guide will have 10 or more sales per book, eh? Ok, show me 10 completed sales of Suspense #3, or Pep #22, or Archie #2, etc. etc. What? There's only 1 or 2? In completely different grades? How can you price it then?

 

I'm sorry but its not fair to use omissions in a guide for a reason that the guide would be useless. A consolidated price guide containing eBay data would be useful to some period, I think the problem we're running into is that some are scared that it would devalue their collections if an eBay price guide became standard. Personally I'd be content with an OS guide which used the eBay data to formulate more realistic prices. Though a seperate eBay guide wouldnt be bad either.

 

I didn't make that claim either. Valiantman, by playing devil's advocate, said "Obviously, a good guide will have 10 or more sales per book." I was playing devil's advocate in return with my comments...