Wizard and OS are not the real price guides... Ebay is!

[BachelorOfComix]

[PovertyRow]

Whenever you argue with me you choose the leat to address and ignore the real core of things. Why is that? I posted a LOT more than you quited and you chose the easy way out.

 

It's not just when he argues with you...welcome to the "screw the truth, I just wanna be right" style of debate. Frustrating, isn't it?

 

 

To quote Lugosi to Van Sloan in Dracula: "INDEED!"

 

[joe_collector]

 

No one respects Monopoly money but you, and I'm simply stating that no matter what Poorman Slim says he'll pay for a comic, words don't pay the dealer's bills.

 

You can have 50 screaming that they'd pay $1K if only they weren't dead broke, but the seller is going to look far more favorably on the lone guy walking in with $750 in cold, hard cash.

 

You believe the 50 losers with more hot air than money should set the market price, while I feel the guy actually buying the comic determines the sales price.

 

And I'm right.

[joe_collector]

It's not just when he argues with you...welcome to the "screw the truth, I just wanna be right" style of debate. Frustrating, isn't it?

 

Instead of just hurling insults, go on record with your opinion.

 

Should words or cash carry the day for comic valuation?

[joe_collector]

To quote Lugosi to Van Sloan in Dracula: "INDEED!"

 

You think I'm frustrating? I'm arguing with a guy who feels Monopoly Money and hot air are legal tender.

[PovertyRow]

 

No one respects Monopoly money but you, and I'm simply stating that no matter what Poorman Slim says he'll pay for a comic, words don't pay the dealer's bills.

 

You can have 50 screaming that they'd pay $1K if only they weren't dead broke, but the seller is going to look far more favorably on the lone guy walking in with $750 in cold, hard cash.

 

You believe the 50 losers with more hot air than money should set the market price, while I feel the guy actually buying the comic determines the sales price.

 

And I'm right.

 

Blah Blah Blah? BLAH BLAH BLAH? Are you talking into a mirror.

 

You make more swings than a kindergarten playgournd, more waffles than IHOP and more shuffles than a Vegas dealer. I swear you don't actually listen to what you really say and understand the implications of what you really say, but, instead, just espouse whatever seems right for any particular moment.

 

What you ignore is the concept that "Poorman Slim" is trying to convey. You ignore it because, at this moment in time, when you firmly shoved your foot in your mouth and realize there is not a graceful retraction, you bypass logic and carry on with pablum. You have done this to me many times. When the argument starts really dissecting what you are saying and equating what you are NOW saying to what you HAVE SAID, you drag out the Pablum Cannons as if I am going to be devestated by sarcasm?????

 

Bottom line - you KNOW where I stand on the issue and what I am talking about. I maintain there is no difference between what a collector - who one day CAN have the money for a book but not just that day - and a dealer who never actually SOLD a copy of that book but "intuits" its current value - when it comes to Real Life. You have decided to discuss paper manufactured by Milton Bradley and the primary ingredient that makes hot air ballons go aloft.

 

But you ignore the principles upon which my arguments are based.

 

::edited for 2 typos - probbaly more but did not see them::

[lighthouse]

2) There are many times when I would pay more for an item, but I don't have the funds. Say a book ended for $1000 for which I would be willing to pay $1500. The value to me (and perhaps hundreds of other collectors) would still be $1500.

 

What the heck does this mean?

 

If you don't have the money, then you're not a qualified buyer and not even part of the equation. The real world could give a rat's butt what you "feel" is the value for a given book, and only cares what cold, hard cash you're willing to lay down.

 

I realize I am a couple hours late back to this party, but I'll address this anyway...

 

I still don't feel that an eBay auction is a legitimate valuation unless the results are repeatable. If they are not, you have a snapshot of the market at one specific moment that has been and gone and will not be seen again.

 

At any given time, with an hour's notice, I can probably lay my hands on a few hundred dollars to buy a collectible I want for myself. I have access to more funds than that, and my temporary cash flow exceeds that, but the amount of money I can immediately access without guilt for an item for myself is a few hundred dollars. Beyond that I have to make decisions about tapping credit lines I may prefer not to use, or accessing funds I prefer to keep in reserve, funds I will have to replace almost immediately to remain guilt-free about the transaction. Reserve capital is very important to me, and I don't use it lightly.

 

If something comes along that I really want, and it's significantly more expensive than a few hundred dollars, I have to make choices about how long I am willing to let my reserve capital be depleted. Is it worth it to dip into my credit lines for a couple weeks? Can I sell items I don't value as highly to replace the funds quickly? That sort of thing.

 

There are times when I choose to pass on items I want, items I am willing to buy, because the timetables don't work for my financial comfort.

 

If the cover to Daredevil 148 was on eBay on a 10-day auction, and I found it on day 1, I would be spending most of the first 9 days juggling my "play" money to find a way to buy it. And given 9 days notice, I'd be a very serious bidder for it. If I find that same auction on day 10, with three hours to go, I don't even place a bid. I'd be happy the piece had surfaced, and happy I would know who now owned it, but there is no way I would enter a bid.

 

I suppose there are plenty of people on this forum like Bugaboo and Khaos and Joanna, who have access to nearly unlimited funds and can buy whatever tickles their fancy. But most of us have budgets to deal with. And we may be able to juggle our finances to outbid the competition, but without enough notice, our money sits on the sidelines. Does that mean we're not "qualified buyers"? I don't think so. There's a big reason why serious sellers offer time payments on serious books. Because they make money by doing so. Because there may be a buyer out there willing to pay more that doesn't have cash in hand. There's also a big reason a lot of eBay auctions don't meet reserve.

 

Which is the more accurate valuation? What you can get for a book over the course of a couple months? Or what you can get in the next 6 hours? Doesn't matter whether you are talking about making a sale and waiting for payment or shopping the book around for the right buyer, either way I think the "couple months" price is a lot more accurate. Otherwise you would see every convention end with the dealers going home with empty boxes...

[Comiclover1973-migration]

1) How would you determine the price of a book that is so scarce on eBay that it comes up less than once a year? For example, the restored Action #1 that is on eBay right now. Should that one sale dictate the market price for that book?

 

There are very few comics that would sell only once or twice a year on Ebay. You can look at prices on ebay compared to prices at guide for similar books and conclude that this book is worth more or less than guide.

 

2) There are many times when I would pay more for an item, but I don't have the funds. Say a book ended for $1000 for which I would be willing to pay $1500. The value to me (and perhaps hundreds of other collectors) would still be $1500.

 

Good point. But the converse is also true. A collector with 2000 to spend would easily spend 1500.00. Also, it's another issue of time and specificly the time value of money. Over many months a seller may find a buyer at a given price. But that doesn't reflect a current market value. (Is the comic just naturally increasing with age or is a prospective buyer just saving up his money?).

 

Does anyone actually know what percentage of collectors/sellers use eBay as a primary marketplace for comic books?

 

Nope, but I would surmise that most collectors use Ebay primarily now. I know it's just personal opinion and I'm one man from 1 area but I seldom see people browse though older comic bins at the local comics store. They sell mostly new comics and peripherals such as Magic cards etc. The dealers that I know tell me this and I also seldom see Wall books come down quickly.

 

If any of my ideas seem really stupid, please be gentle. I know some of you guys play kinda rough and I bruise easily.

 

No problem. I don't use personal insults. That is for people who can not use their brains.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Comiclover1973-migration]

I still don't feel that an eBay auction is a legitimate valuation unless the results are repeatable. If they are not, you have a snapshot of the market at one specific moment that has been and gone and will not be seen again.

 

If comic sellers could provide receipts of multiple comics sold than they would be more reliable. The fact is that expensive comics are not made available often and therefore no "results" can be repeated. Ebay is a snapshot. However, using Ebay prices on modern 1980- pesent comics would find many examples and demonstrate just how badly Wizard overvalues.

 

There's a big reason why serious sellers offer time payments on serious books.

 

But this just goes back to the idea of a comic dealer believing that the true price of a comic can represent holding the comic for months at any given price. A seller can offer a payment plan, alternatively, keep a book available until someone can finally come along with th cash. Similarly, you are free to save up the money yourself and then make a lump sum purchase 6 months later. Neither scenario indicates "guide".

 

Otherwise you would see every convention end with the dealers going home with empty boxes...

 

well fist, many convention sellers have given me great last minute deals, simply because they didn't sell that many comics and they needed the money. Second, most comic sellers make a bulk of thei profits buying and selling new books. Conventions aren't used just for selling older books but also for promoting your business, selling new books, networking etc. There isn't much pressure to get rid of all you books at a convention.

 

[duncan36]

If I'm a dealer do I want people running around with a guide that shows Crisis on Infinte Earth 1-12 as being worth $160? Or do I want an eBay guide that shows the same books selling for between $20-$30 for all 12 books in? The answer is totally obvious and has nothing to do with reliability of data.

 

I personally would hope for a little more honesty on this board if an eBay price guide became standard in the industry non-CGC books would get a 30%-50% haircut off the top.

I think its ok to say this thought scares a lot of people.

 

[Comiclover1973-migration]

The only reason to put together a new guide is to make money... Who do you see as the target audience for this guide and how much do you think they will pay to use it?

 

I agree with you 100%, guides are produced to make money. The money is made by selling these guides to dealers and collectors that love to see the value of their books continually skyrocket, regardless of it being BS. It is also made by selling advertising space for sellers with similar goals.

 

Actually, Ebay would never allow someone to use their data to make money. So an official Ebay price guide, I admit, is out of the question. However, I argue that is Wiz or OS were run ethically they would lower their guide prices on modern comics to reflect Ebay and respond to a dramatic change in the market.

 

No more ridiculous than CBG's method, which is to poll comic buyers as to how much they pay for comics... Which price do you think is more accurate? The price you can expect to pay to buy a comic with minimal effort (a retail store price)? Or the price you can expect to pay to buy a comic with maximum effort (a buyer's price)?

 

Where did the CBG come into this? I was talking about Ebay reflected prices and the effort used to acquire books though Ebay is even less than a comic store since they are shipped right to my door.

 

CBG says that if I look hard enough I can expect to find NM copies of Fantastic Four 161-167 for $4 each... Wizard says I should expect to pay $10-16 for the same issues

 

Once again we are talking about Ebay here, but I will still adress it. Why should comic sellers sell their comics using Wizard as their guide? If I was a pro. comic seller, I would be far more corncerned with what other buyers ae willing to pay and pay me right now than Wizard said was the guide price. I am not selling my books to Wizard.

 

But by the same token, if a BIN is set too low, and the comic sells in a matter of minutes for half what it could have sold for in days, then what? Is the "value" based on the realized sale price?

 

This would be balanced by BIN set too high, but some foolish buyer buys it anyways. Both examples are very rare. However, the guide could simply be restricted from using BIN prices as examples.

 

The hours in between are there solely to let a few more people find the auction. Look over your own buying history and see how many books you first found on day 4 of 7..

 

Well, what you are talking about here is the idea of "sniping" which is a side issue.

It is simply Ebay psychology.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[duncan36]

I find it funny personally that many are arguing that eBay data is worthless or hard to trust yet theres a site that has got over 600 subscribers that charges an arm and a leg for scraps of data from eBay's site.

 

I'm sure comic dealers/comic shop owners are sick of little brats whinging that 'Well I saw that book for so much less $$ on eBay'. Imagine if said brat was carting around an eBay price guide, let the real nightmare ensue.

 

On a side note anyone know the legalities of someone publishing a book with consolidated auction listings without the eBay name?

[harveyfan323]

I've long believed that Ebay was the most accurate "price guide" out there. Overstreet is laughable with some of their "values". Overstreet is better than nothing, but Ebay is the best option if you can find a recorded sale on the book in question.

[Joanna]

I find it funny personally that many are arguing that eBay data is worthless or hard to trust yet theres a site that has got over 600 subscribers that charges an arm and a leg for scraps of data from eBay's site.

 

No one is saying ebay data is worthless or hard to trust. What they're saying is that a published book based on ebay data wouldn't be feasible. The site you refer to is dynamic, i.e. it changes as the database changes. That is feasible, and a good use for ebay data. But a book? Do you know the turn-around time on books? Are you familiar with publishing? I have a couple of book deals in the works and I know that I won't see my work in print for at least a year, probably more, from the time the contracts are signed. They aren't printed overnight, or every two weeks, or in a month or two. By the time your ebay book came out, your data would be reflecting very old ebay sales. It might be fine for some items, but very wrong for others. Meanwhile, the online database would have brand new information.

 

As for pricing items on ebay in accordance with Wizard or OS, those books are "guides" (as has been said multiple times here). If the market won't bear the price, the comic won't sell. If the market is starved for the book, it will realize more than guide price. The buyers determine the value on ebay. They either bid or they don't. They bid furiously, or you catch one guy willing to buy at that price. It's all very fluid, and depends on a multitude of factors (many of which have been recorded in this thread).

 

Bottom line, write your ebay price guide, if you want. Then wait for someone else to post a thread talking about how "off" all of your year-old data is.

 

-- Joanna

[duncan36]

I find it funny personally that many are arguing that eBay data is worthless or hard to trust yet theres a site that has got over 600 subscribers that charges an arm and a leg for scraps of data from eBay's site.

 

No one is saying ebay data is worthless or hard to trust. What they're saying is that a published book based on ebay data wouldn't be feasible. The site you refer to is dynamic, i.e. it changes as the database changes. That is feasible, and a good use for ebay data. But a book? Do you know the turn-around time on books? Are you familiar with publishing? I have a couple of book deals in the works and I know that I won't see my work in print for at least a year, probably more, from the time the contracts are signed. They aren't printed overnight, or every two weeks, or in a month or two. By the time your ebay book came out, your data would be reflecting very old ebay sales. It might be fine for some items, but very wrong for others. Meanwhile, the online database would have brand new information.

 

As for pricing items on ebay in accordance with Wizard or OS, those books are "guides" (as has been said multiple times here). If the market won't bear the price, the comic won't sell. If the market is starved for the book, it will realize more than guide price. The buyers determine the value on ebay. They either bid or they don't. They bid furiously, or you catch one guy willing to buy at that price. It's all very fluid, and depends on a multitude of factors (many of which have been recorded in this thread).

 

Bottom line, write your ebay price guide, if you want. Then wait for someone else to post a thread talking about how "off" all of your year-old data is.

 

-- Joanna

 

I see your point, but I also dont see any difference between a guide based on eBay sales and the yearly OS guide as far as being out of date.

Whats better one with eBay sales that accurately showed the market price at some point but which is a bit out of date or the OS guide which never came close to showing the actual market price.

Obviously I know the answer.

[blutobc]

Stated simply and to the point Joanna. The CB market is variable. Guides are guides, nothing more. The value of a book can and will change on a daily basis, depending on the seller and buyer motivations.

[blazingbob]

What forum members would like my posted sales?

 

Would you like who I sold it to also?

 

How about I publish my customer list for everyone to contact?

 

There is a very "subtle" undertone to this thread that Dealer sales are complete fabrication.

[joe_collector]

There is a very "subtle" undertone to this thread that Dealer sales are complete fabrication.

 

Bob, please remember that these comments do not apply to the upstanding dealers like yourself. More like Chuck and his pals and the Conan #3 debacle.

[sfilosa]

What forum members would like my posted sales?

 

Would you like who I sold it to also?

 

How about I publish my customer list for everyone to contact?

 

 

Would ya mind?

 

 

In fact, you are the type of dealer/collector that Overstreet has been getting their sales figures from the past 33 years, correct?

 

Prior to eBay, Heritage, etc. ALL sales info came from dealers. Actual sales or not, that's how GUIDE values were determined.

 

Now we have gone one hundered percent the other way and it seems that buyers want to completely ignore dealer sales.

 

Somewhere along the line, we need to find a happy medium.

 

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

Just a thought to interject on this debate:

 

The comic market is as dynamic and ever-changing as its ever been, primarily due to the influence of CGC and eBay. Good luck to ANYONE who thinks that any single medium (computer database, periodic publication, etc) could hope to accurately reflect the current market. It just can't happen.

 

For those of you who don't know me, I only collect vintage Fantastic Four comics. After a year of being back in the game full-time, I think I FINALLY have a grasp of this ONE title and its performance in the marketplace, due to daily research of ebay sales, dealer sales, Heritage sales, my own sales, the Overstreet Guide, the CGC Census, and the general difficulty that I've encountered just finding NM certified issues before # 40.

 

Now, as focused as my comic collecting is, I couldn't envision the same care and thought being applied by to the entire comic market as a whole to offer an accurate assessment of what's selling for what.