CBS MarketWatch: Collectibles Are "The Stupid Investment Of The Week"

[Mushroom]

That is a very good post Mushroom, and I agree with your basic sentments, but still disagree on how deep this will go.

 

Personally, I don't see anything past the first 10 issues of the initial Marvel Silver rush to hold anything resembling their current value. That and a few Silver and Bronze keys that turn out to be much rarer in HG (scratch Hulk 181 offf that list) than anyone thought.

 

Other than that, count on huge losses and buyer apathy.

 

I don't disagree that SA still will encounter a lot of volitility and I agree that a large number of mainstream hero books will suffer sharp downward movement but at the same time there are still a lot of SA books that are largely neglected as they aren't currently in favour..... This won't be speculator type growth but they will return a modest increase year on year.

[duncan36]

Personally speaking, I like the SNES and forward for any potential spec activity. The Ataris are older, but I still feel that the SNES marked the beginning of the current Video Game Age.

 

Nintendo onward obviously have a lot of interest and SNES is collectable because its games are highly playable still today.

But theres quite a bit of action surrounding the 2600 especially rare titles that completists are looking for, and the Intellivision market is heating up quite a bit, because mint in box Intellivision games with the overlays are very rare.

[fantastic_four]

Is that why circulation levels are down 80% since a decade ago? Only a handful of titles sell more than 100,000 copies, a figure which used to be considered a cancellation cut-off.

 

How does the total volume of comics sold across all titles sold compare to a decade, or two decades, ago? I've never heard from anyone who had those statistics. Using the maximum number of copies the hottest titles sell as evidence that the collector base is shrinking is as valid as pointing out how the Nielson ratings of ABC, NBC, and CBS going down BIG time over the last twenty years is evidence that people aren't watching TV anymore. Not true--there are just a lot more channels to divide people's attention, and in a similar way, there are a lot more comic book titles to divide people's attention also.

 

Not that I think the grand totals are higher now than in the past...I figure they're less just like you do, I just haven't ever heard from anywhere how much less they are these days.

[delekkerste]

I have to agree with J_C that this is a pretty well thought-out post, though of course I disagree with your conclusions. We can agree to disagree. I do strongly object to the comment about textbook macroeconomic theories, though. There's macroeconomic theory and there's just plain macroeconomic reality and nothing I said was pulled from a theoretical textbook, but was simply my observations of the reality around us (which you can disagree with, of course).

 

I will say that I don't share your and J_C's optimism about the collectibility of videogames & related paraphernalia. My sense is that the current and future generations will not only be less interested in reading and collecting comics, but they will be less interested in collecting in general. I know that's a radical concept, but I simply believe that the younger generation is more interested in experience and interactivity versus assembling collections of static objects. Of course there will still be millions of collectors, but I just don't see another category of collectibles becoming the next big collecting wave like stamps, coins, cards and comics have been in the past.

 

Of course, that's purely my observation based on my understanding of human nature and cultural trends...your interpretation may vary and I fully admit that there is a big chance I could be wrong.

 

Gene

[Mushroom]

GA mainstream titles often had production runs over a million.

[fantastic_four]

As per the comments around people like Comgeek....well... he sells comics for a living to purely make himself some money...in this regard he is no different than a merchant banker or stock broker. For some people he makes money for others he doesn't. He is trading in a commodity...if the market should fail... then his ability to see this in advance and shift to another commodity will be vital to his ability to continue to make money.

 

He also buys the majority of his books raw and slabs them himself...not sure how that can be viewed as propping up the market.

[Mushroom]

I know that's a radical concept, but I simply believe that the younger generation is more interested in experience and interactivity versus assembling collections of static objects. Of course there will still be millions of collectors, but I just don't see another category of collectibles becoming the next big collecting wave like stamps, coins, cards and comics have been in the past.

 

Of course, that's purely my observation based on my understanding of human nature and cultural trends...your interpretation may vary and I fully admit that there is a big chance I could be wrong.

 

Gene

 

Aaah but Gene you are limiting your interpretation to a western view. Baby boomer's collected and saved for the future because their parents suffered the deprivations of the depression and the war. X'and Y's spend now because boomers were all about gathering and saving for their future. In Asia the trends are that the current generation is very comparable to baby boomers.

 

What a market China has the potential to be.....having lived in the HK and greater China region for the last 18 months and seeing their appetite for electronic games...well...there might be a few 10's of millions interested in buying over the next few decades.

[Aman619]

I can almost understand the appeal of collecting early videogames....but up to the point of answering "why". Is it the rarity of an unopened complete boxed game from the early stages of a hot cultural phenomena? That I can see. But, they weregames to be played on what are now obsolete systems. So why collect them cartridges at all?? They wont be playable without the hardware. And even if you collected the game systems too, cant one play these early games when ported to current computers? And arent they so rudimenatary compared to the stuff that comes out now?

 

So aside from the paper collectible aspect of the boxes that housed the games, I just cant see why anyone would really want to collect them... "Hey, wanna come see my unopened Atari cartridges? Cool. Lets play Warcraft"

[Mushroom]

They have estimated that more than 60% of people who collect rare 78's (like Buddy Holly, Elvis Presley etc etc) do not have the means by which to play them. To make it more weird 78's in general came in plain wrappers (album art was a phenomonon of the 33" and the ep).

 

78's of these artists continue to grow in value. Why is it so?

 

Sound logic does not necessarily go hand in hand with emotion.

 

 

[Bonds25]

Crazy stuff! It would almost be like encasing a comic book in a slab of plastic where you can't read it, and collecting that!

[joe_collector]

IMy sense is that the current and future generations will not only be less interested in reading and collecting comics, but they will be less interested in collecting in general.

 

Actually Gene, I think it's a genetic imprint that makes one nostalgic once you hit adulthood and have the rigors of day-to-day life to handle.

 

Or as the old saying goes, "Things are never as good as the old days, and they never were."

 

Next to adult real-life, even a bad childhood can look good by comparison, especailly as we self-edit what we want to remember.

 

Now barring some Mad Max-type apocalypse, I think every generation will get nostalgic for the past, and thus try and save a piece of it for collector value only, which will in turn spur the mad-money speculators to drive the market....

[THE_BEYONDER]

Crazy stuff! It would almost be like encasing a comic book in a slab of plastic where you can't read it, and collecting that!

 

[joe_collector]

ISo aside from the paper collectible aspect of the boxes that housed the games, I just cant see why anyone would really want to collect them... "Hey, wanna come see my unopened Atari cartridges? Cool. Lets play Warcraft"

 

I always find this kind of reply quite humorous, especially in light of the CGC encapsulation process.

 

"Hey, wanna come over and see my CGC 9.8 Hulk 181? Cool, let's read Absolute Spider-man!"

[jbud73]

Crazy stuff! It would almost be like encasing a comic book in a slab of plastic where you can't read it, and collecting that!

 

 

Bonds gets in a good shot.

 

[garthgantu]

Personally speaking, I like the SNES and forward for any potential spec activity. The Ataris are older, but I still feel that the SNES marked the beginning of the current Video Game Age.

 

I would agree with this for one simple reason: SNES (and newer) consoles are still readily available, and work with current TV sets. Older game systems are cool, but finding them is tougher, and getting them to work on today's televisions is tougher still.

 

The difference between older videogame systems and cartridges and older comic books is, you can always read the comic... I'm not sure just owning the cartridge for "Pitfall" is going to appeal to a wide audience... if you can't experience most of the 'magic' that made you love it in your youth, will you still spend more than a couple of bucks on it?

[duncan36]

I have to agree with J_C that this is a pretty well thought-out post, though of course I disagree with your conclusions. We can agree to disagree. I do strongly object to the comment about textbook macroeconomic theories, though. There's macroeconomic theory and there's just plain macroeconomic reality and nothing I said was pulled from a theoretical textbook, but was simply my observations of the reality around us (which you can disagree with, of course).

 

I will say that I don't share your and J_C's optimism about the collectibility of videogames & related paraphernalia. My sense is that the current and future generations will not only be less interested in reading and collecting comics, but they will be less interested in collecting in general. I know that's a radical concept, but I simply believe that the younger generation is more interested in experience and interactivity versus assembling collections of static objects. Of course there will still be millions of collectors, but I just don't see another category of collectibles becoming the next big collecting wave like stamps, coins, cards and comics have been in the past.

 

Of course, that's purely my observation based on my understanding of human nature and cultural trends...your interpretation may vary and I fully admit that there is a big chance I could be wrong.

 

Gene

 

Videogames as a collectible is a relatively immature concept. However I'd be willing to bet as a numerical number theres more people entering video game collecting than there are people entering comic collecting. This combined with the fact that you can easily make hundreds of bucks with an acute eye at flea markets/garage sales, and in many ways video game collecting is more rewarding for new collectors than comic collecting is.

[Foolkiller]

Mushroom... that really was an incredibly well thought out posts... really enjoyed it.

[joe_collector]

if you can't experience most of the 'magic' that made you love it in your youth, will you still spend more than a couple of bucks on it?

 

That's a valid question, but I still think the inherent "collector mentality" that we humans have, tends to outweigh logic. I can just look at certain comic covers and it brings back memories, and I'm sure video games are the same.

 

Personally, I remember playing some Genesis RPG and Sports games with friends, and the experience is genetically imprinted on my memory. We had that Madden game where you could injure the QB (and get him carted off on an ambulance - and watch the replay) and we still laugh when it's brought up.

 

Double cornerback blitz = good times!!

 

I think I'd buy a sealed copy of that game any day of the week. And on that note...

[delekkerste]

The difference between older videogame systems and cartridges and older comic books is, you can always read the comic... I'm not sure just owning the cartridge for "Pitfall" is going to appeal to a wide audience...

 

I'm with this view...I agree with J_C that every generation will get nostalgic for the past, but in the case of something like videogames, my guess is that it will be manifested in re-issuing old games to fit new consoles (e.g., one of the first things I did when I bought a home computer back in 1996 was to go buy Microsoft's Arcade and Return of Arcade retro software for PCs with 1980s classics like Pac-Man, Pole Position, Tempest, etc.) I doubt today's gamers are going to be so nostalgic as to want MOC unopened videogame cartridges, at least not in any great quantity. IMHO.

 

Gene

[joe_collector]

Another angle are those old video game magazines. I was following some comic book auctions, and noticed this guy had some mags for sale as well.

 

Although they didn't break the bank, the price was much higher than I would have imagined.

 

I do agree with Gene that it's much harder to peg the trends with the current generation, but if anything takes off, it's gonna be video game-related. Other than that, nothing else fits the criteria.