TMNT #1 Club 19 19

[Callaway29]

I’m sensing a lot of pumping going on...I suppose it could just be hype catching on, but all of a sudden TMNT is all the rage on social media platforms. No need to explain the book, I get it...but why now and so fast & furious? 

[Subby1938]

13 hours ago, DTM700 said:

I honestly believe in 3-5 years $100k will be the norm for first print 9.8's. The low census coupled with the IP popularity and pop culture make it an absolute no brainer. I truly believe this is the copper age version of AF15 or Tec 27.

EDIT: Currently a 7.5 is at $9.1k with 11 days to go on ComicLink. 

 

 

High grade copies for this book are not rare that book itself is htf but from 9-9.8 there are a good amount . A lot more 9.8 TMNT than AF15s that’s for sure 

Edited July 27, 2020 by Subby1938

[Subby1938]

13 hours ago, DTM700 said:

I honestly believe in 3-5 years $100k will be the norm for first print 9.8's. The low census coupled with the IP popularity and pop culture make it an absolute no brainer. I truly believe this is the copper age version of AF15 or Tec 27.

EDIT: Currently a 7.5 is at $9.1k with 11 days to go on ComicLink. 

 

 

High grade copies for this book are not rare that book itself is htf but from 9-9.8 there are a good amount . A lot more 9.8 TMNT than AF15s that’s for sure 

Edited July 27, 2020 by Subby1938

[DTM700]

22 minutes ago, Subby1938 said:

High grade copies for this book are not rare that book itself is htf but from 9-9.8 there are a good amount . A lot more 9.8 TMNT than AF15s that’s for sure 

Correct, there are no 9.8 AF 15's that I'm aware of. Yes, there are about six times more TMNT 1 in 9.0 and above than AF 15 (approx. 364 TMNT 1 at 9.0 and above vs  65 AF15 at 9.0 and above). If I'm wrong or way off on the numbers, someone please let me know.

My low census remark was to all graded first print copies of TMNT 1, less than 1000. AF15 has over 3300 graded copies. The low census for all graded copies of TMNT 1 first print  is part of the driving price along with it's pop culture presence. There will always be five things in life: death, taxes, Spiderman reboots, Batman reboots, and TMNT reboots.

[Subby1938]

I also think we are hitting a sweet spot of collectors that grew up with TMNT in their mid to late 40s now trying to buy this issue . Disposable income or whatever the timing is a perfect storm . 
 

the book was undervalued for a long time I just question how fast it’s jumped . What do I know ?

[GM8]

14 hours ago, Callaway29 said:

I’m sensing a lot of pumping going on...I suppose it could just be hype catching on, but all of a sudden TMNT is all the rage on social media platforms. No need to explain the book, I get it...but why now and so fast & furious? 

Not really a pump...this is real demand. The movie may have something to do with it, and the stock market definitely does. It hit me when the second prints went nuts, now it's going back into first prints again. I think the 9.8's hit that 100K mark soon.

[Subby1938]

At a 100K I’m selling every copy I own ( If I had them  ) without hesitation 

Edited July 27, 2020 by Subby1938

[WolverineX]

1 hour ago, Subby1938 said:

At a 100K I’m selling every copy I own ( If I had them  ) without hesitation 

You wouldn't wait for 200k?

[valiantman]

3 hours ago, Subby1938 said:

At a 100K I’m selling every copy I own ( If I had them  ) without hesitation 

I'm sure someone had that same thought at $10K, and they made someone else very happy.  $100K will do the same thing.

[Ryan.]

33 minutes ago, valiantman said:

I'm sure someone had that same thought at $10K, and they made someone else very happy.  $100K will do the same thing.

Someone mentioned you on the Usagi Dojo recently. FYI. 

[valiantman]

22 minutes ago, Ryan. said:

Someone mentioned you on the Usagi Dojo recently. FYI. 

I'm not a member over there... is it something I need to see and follow-up about? 

[Subby1938]

2 hours ago, Wolverinex said:

You wouldn't wait for 200k?

At 100K only an elite few can buy books of that value . I would sell so fast  no sense being greedy as we all know most owners of those high grade books have had them for years 

[Ryan.]

30 minutes ago, valiantman said:

I'm not a member over there... is it something I need to see and follow-up about? 

In a conversation about the Usagi 10 Peach Momoko variant:

"Greg [surname] , the guy behind the cgcdata website and valiant fans boards actually did a study using data on this showing the rate of decay in prices. To use his terminology after the moneybags get their copies right at the beginning prices start to fall pretty fast."

[valiantman]

4 hours ago, Ryan. said:

5 hours ago, valiantman said:

I'm not a member over there... is it something I need to see and follow-up about? 

In a conversation about the Usagi 10 Peach Momoko variant:

"Greg [surname] , the guy behind the cgcdata website and valiant fans boards actually did a study using data on this showing the rate of decay in prices. To use his terminology after the moneybags get their copies right at the beginning prices start to fall pretty fast."

Hmmm... I don't remember that, but I've been running CGCdata.com (or the same thing at a different site) since 2003, so anything possible on what I might have said.  Generally speaking, without an increase in interest (movies, shows, toys, something else new), you can expect a CGC graded book to have some total value... let's say $50,000 (all copies combined), and we know the CGC census is going to increase, so without something else happening, that $50,000 tends to stay the same and get spread across more copies, making the individual prices for the same slabs begin to fall.  Any outside changes (movies, shows, toys, something else) tend to increase the total value dollars, let's say to $75,000, so the individual prices either increase... or the CGC census rises faster than the dollars and the individual prices still fall (but not as much as if the total had stayed at $50,000).

If that makes any sense. 

TMNT #1 (all slabbed copies) are worth a lot more than $50,000... closer to $5,000,000, probably... but the concept is the same whether we're talking about CGC slabs of TMNT #1 (this topic) or CGC slabs of some new variant (probably closer to $50,000 total).

[Ryan.]

My understanding is that the total value of Peach Momoko variants is $80 kajillion and rising. 

[Sauce Dog]

15 hours ago, Subby1938 said:

At 100K only an elite few can buy books of that value . I would sell so fast  no sense being greedy as we all know most owners of those high grade books have had them for years 

This is exactly why I think the 'lower grade' copies of this book are the true gems - still 'affordable' to a larger group of buyers that want in

I've told my wife about all current auctions and the offers I get on my TMNT book, they come in like clockwork every week on instagram, and every time she gives me a scowl and tells me hard no to selling (we both love the turtles). Of course I won't sell now with how bonkers the prices are getting, but we both agreed it wouldn't be totally insane if one day I ended up selling mine for $10k Canadian (I have a CGC 5.0, so basically $7,500us which seems doable with how prices are trending now) even though long term it could be more - I don't want to be too greedy and Sauce Dog needs a new house to live in 

[Subby1938]

I want one of these I traded my 9.0 last December in a huge deal to get AF15 then sold Spiderman book to pay for my condo . I miss my turtle book bad I can never afford 9.0 again 

[Ryan.]

1 hour ago, Sauce Dog said:

This is exactly why I think the 'lower grade' copies of this book are the true gems - still 'affordable' to a larger group of buyers that want in

I've told my wife about all current auctions and the offers I get on my TMNT book, they come in like clockwork every week on instagram, and every time she gives me a scowl and tells me hard no to selling (we both love the turtles). Of course I won't sell now with how bonkers the prices are getting, but we both agreed it wouldn't be totally insane if one day I ended up selling mine for $10k Canadian (I have a CGC 5.0, so basically $7,500us which seems doable with how prices are trending now) even though long term it could be more - I don't want to be too greedy and Sauce Dog needs a new house to live in 

I've gotten unsolicited emails/PMs on my 5.0 over the years, usually one or two a year, to ask if I'm selling. I always so no. A couple years ago I did receive a PM from a boardie with an offer for, if I remember correctly, about $2300, which at the time wasn't outrageous. My wife talked me out of selling, and I'm happy she did.

On the flipside I've had opportunities to buy higher grade raw copies and always passed, which I now regret. I definitely regret selling my higher grade second prints.

[GM8]

Here's some capital gains for your viewing pleasure. This 9.0 off white/white paged blue label last traded in November of 2018 for $6,560. Yesterday, it sold for $15K over on ebay. Cha-ching!

 

https://www.ebay.com/itm/Teenage-Mutant-Ninja-Turtles-1-CGC-9-0-1984-Mirage-1st-Print-H12-cm-clean-/352841824842?hash=item522702fa4a%3Ag%3AFmQAAOSw84ZcODNV&nma=true&si=VC%2FvYp9GMj7kX%2BMb19EhSWILuaM%3D&orig_cvip=true&nordt=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557

[pubmonkey]

Thanks @GM8 for always highlighting the interesting stuff.

To put the above mentioned sale into perspective l picked up my 9.8 in 2012 for $1k less than this 9.0 sold for...

I want to know where all the 2nd prints have gone. There were twice as many printed as the first print but they are much less represented in the census. With their prices rising, especially for high grades, surely more would have come out of the woodwork?