TMNT #1 Club 19 19

[LDarkseid1]

3 hours ago, GM8 said:

Here's a 9.2 on sale, special price, stacked-coupon special for only one easy payment of $29,500! This book has been listed by comicmylars out of California for a while, ebay had it as "sold" last November at $13.5K. So that apparently fell through to the benefit of comicmylars, apparently. The asking price had been all over the place last year, 11.8K, then 10.5K, then 13.5K, then 14.5K, then the "sale".

 

https://www.ebay.com/itm/Teenage-Mutant-Ninja-Turtles-1-CGC-9-2-Mirage-1984-1st-Print-White-Pages-cm/353163118979?hash=item523a298983:g:LmUAAOSwkHxcAM6F

Comicmylars also sold a 3rd print 9.8 not long ago on eBay that is conveniently back up for sale lol. A lot of his sales magically fall through it seems.

Edited August 7, 2020 by LDarkseid1

[lou_fine]

On 7/27/2020 at 7:30 AM, Subby1938 said:

On 7/26/2020 at 6:11 PM, DTM700 said:

I honestly believe in 3-5 years $100k will be the norm for first print 9.8's. The low census coupled with the IP popularity and pop culture make it an absolute no brainer. I truly believe this is the copper age version of AF15 or Tec 27.

EDIT: Currently a 7.5 is at $9.1k with 11 days to go on ComicLink. 

 

High grade copies for this book are not rare that book itself is htf but from 9-9.8 there are a good amount . A lot more 9.8 TMNT than AF15s that’s for sure 

I guess the real question is whether the supply of TMNT 1 in CGC 9.8 graded condition ends up being higher than the demand for it once it hits $100K.  

Especially since the CGC Population Census Report already includes 32 copies (and counting) in CGC 9.8 condition, with this count no doubt going higher by the time the book hits $100K.  I can't think of any other comic book (including Action 1 or 'Tec 27) that would have anywhere close to this many copies of a graded book that would be able to fetch $100K per copy.  Hence, the reason I think collectors will be much more tempted to sell their copies of TMNT 1 once it hits 6-figures, as opposed to paying 6-figures to acquire, especially with the "relatively high" number of copies out there.  

Like we have seen with so many other truly vintage collectable comic books, the air is much more rarified when you reach these stratospheric price levels.  What usually happens at this point is that it tends to bring up the prices for the lower graded copies as collectors just wants to be able to pick up a copy which they can still afford to buy.  This is where the much larger percentage gains will be going forward.  

[lou_fine]

On 7/28/2020 at 7:52 AM, Sauce Dog said:

On 7/27/2020 at 3:41 PM, Subby1938 said:

At 100K only an elite few can buy books of that value . I would sell so fast  no sense being greedy as we all know most owners of those high grade books have had them for years 

This is exactly why I think the 'lower grade' copies of this book are the true gems - still 'affordable' to a larger group of buyers that want in

Exactly right, especially when you have such a "relatively high" number of uber HG copies out there and only the elite few willing to spend that kind of money on a comic book.  

My bet is that if we take a poll here to see how many of us would sell a CGC 9.8 graded copy of TMNT 1 for $100K, as opposed to buying one for $100K, the poll results would be very very heavily weighted to one side.  

Edited August 7, 2020 by lou_fine

[lou_fine]

On 8/2/2020 at 9:19 PM, LDarkseid1 said:

Aww gotcha! And yeah the 7.5 is baffling to me. Was a $5K-$6K book not long ago. Not sure why it’s gone up soo much randomly and other copies getting snatched up, likely because of it.

Increase is not random at all, and the answer is right here:

On 7/28/2020 at 7:52 AM, Sauce Dog said:

This is exactly why I think the 'lower grade' copies of this book are the true gems - still 'affordable' to a larger group of buyers that want in
 

 

[DTM700]

51 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

I guess the real question is whether the supply of TMNT 1 in CGC 9.8 graded condition ends up being higher than the demand for it once it hits $100K.  

46 minutes ago, lou_fine said:

My bet is that if we take a poll here to see how many of us would sell a CGC 9.8 graded copy of TMNT 1 for $100K, as opposed to buying one for $100K, the poll results would be very very heavily weighted to one side.  

This is a very good point. While I still think 9.8's will eventually hit $100k, I would not be surprised if there is a pull back or price correction due to the reasons listed above. 

[atrocitus]

I’m glad I bought my 1st print copy almost 6 years ago 

[Legion HQ]

I was wondering why I was having an increase in offers on my 1st print 9.2 copy. Interesting. Difficult to gauge the value after that 7.5 sale. Wow!

[rsouxlja7]

I think the next sale may not be as high but the book is definitely trending up in the non NM grades.

Edited August 7, 2020 by rsouxlja7

[LDarkseid1]

3 hours ago, lou_fine said:

Increase is not random at all, and the answer is right here:

 

But a 100% increase in 1-2 months, and just because lower grades copies are more affordable to a larger group of buyers? I don’t see how that’s an answer to the sudden massive increase. From what I can tell it seems to be something else. Everyone has noticed the sudden rapid increase in Albedo 2’s. Seems like it’s more of a copper key shift, than a grade range shift.

[rich_TMNT]

On 7/31/2020 at 7:16 PM, Sauce Dog said:

If anyone thinks the 1st prints are too common, then they have this grail they could jump on:

The very first printers proof.
https://www.comiclink.com/auctions/item.asp?back=%2FAUCTIONS%2FSEARCH.ASP%3FFocusedOnly%3D1%26where%3Dauctions%26title%3Dninja%2Bturtles%26ItemType%3DCB%23Item_1420693&id=1420693&itemType=0

 

On 7/31/2020 at 9:04 PM, SpideyFein said:

This is pretty amazing. It’s unlike other proofs I’ve seen. It will surely fetch a pretty penny. 

Back in December last year, I found out about this proof and conversed with a comic shop owner who was friends with the owner of this proof.  He sent me a few key interior page images that I requested.  From my limited evaluation (just those few key interior pages), this printer's proof does seem to be the real thing.  It's at least consistent in the few pages I was provided when compared to the interior pages of TMNT #1 1st & 2nd printings.  What can't really be proven is whether this is a proof from the 1st printing run (May, 1984) or the 2nd printing run (June, 1984) since the page images of both printings are identical in size and have many of the same anomalies / characteristics.  Both 1st & 2nd printings came from the same negatives and possibly even the same printing plates (given they were only printed a month apart).  The dark lines across the bottoms of some pages appear in many copies of the 1st & 2nd printings but not all of them.  It does seem that in some copies, they are less prominent.  My hypothesis is that the dark lines dissipated in the copies from the mid-end of the print run and so copies with the most prominent lines at the bottom were from the beginning of the print runs and the lighter / non-existent lines were from the end of the print runs.  If this hypothesis holds true, then the proof of any run would need to have the darkest / most prominent lines.  This proof does have dark / prominent lines at the bottoms of the key pages I've seen.

Ever since I acquired the TMNT #1 negatives, I've been searching for a printer's proof with pages that contain all the same anomalies / characteristics that only the original negatives could have created.  A different proof I evaluated earlier last year had some of the correct characteristics but not all - and that makes it questionable.  It's not definitively a deal-killer but proof copies would literally be the first to come off the press run and would be quickly evaluated for accuracy before the rest of the print run was completed.  Proofs from a print run should match the entire print run almost exactly - that is, unless something was found incorrect in the proof and then changed for the print run after the proof was made.  A proof that's different in any way from the pages of the actual print run can't really be called a proof from that print run (at least in my thinking).

All to say, this is such a cool item and I'm very interested in watching what it goes for.  Ultimately, I'd really like to be able to evaluate every page of this proof and compare against the negatives.  I'm hoping once the auction goes live they'll have more interior page pictures, especially the key pages with unique identifying marks.

Edited August 8, 2020 by rich_TMNT

[GM8]

20 hours ago, LDarkseid1 said:

But a 100% increase in 1-2 months, and just because lower grades copies are more affordable to a larger group of buyers? I don’t see how that’s an answer to the sudden massive increase. From what I can tell it seems to be something else. Everyone has noticed the sudden rapid increase in Albedo 2’s. Seems like it’s more of a copper key shift, than a grade range shift.

Seth Rogen movie. Stock market all time highs. Two pretty good reasons.

[GM8]

On 7/26/2020 at 2:17 PM, GM8 said:

I've never seen this copy listed or sold before, special discount price of $100,000! New 9.8 listing on ebay from a seller I'm unfamiliar with "redhoodcomics". Anyone know anything about them? They're in Las Vegas it appears.

 

https://www.ebay.com/itm/TEENAGE-MUTANT-NINJA-TURTLES-1984-First-Printing-1-CGC-9-8-NM-MT-SIGNED/224094283871?hash=item342d0f685f:g:o2UAAOSw9INfHQs-

 

A side note: this makes 15 unique CGC 9.8's that I have in my sales/listings database going back to 2006 with the first sale I have record of in 2011. So out of 28 officially graded books, a little over half have been listed and/or changed hands since then.  The other 13 are in collector's hands and have been off the market for at least the public.

The seller pulled this book. It was not sold per him. That makes zero 9.8 first prints for sale currently. And we all know 0/32 makes 0. Time for a price jump to $500K! 

[lou_fine]

21 hours ago, LDarkseid1 said:

On 8/7/2020 at 10:28 AM, lou_fine said:

Increase is not random at all, and the answer is right here:

 

But a 100% increase in 1-2 months, and just because lower grades copies are more affordable to a larger group of buyers? I don’t see how that’s an answer to the sudden massive increase. From what I can tell it seems to be something else.

Yes, it's called FOMO and we have seen it throughout time when it comes to the stock market and we had also seen it with AF 15 and Hulk 181 on an on and off basis during the past few years.  

The only problem with FOMO is that buyers need to be very careful as prices can clearly overshoot at times due to irrational exuberance and you certainly wouldn't want to be caught buying at the wrong time when prices can be a lot cheaper later on.  

[lou_fine]

6 minutes ago, GM8 said:

The seller pulled this book. It was not sold per him. That makes zero 9.8 first prints for sale currently. And we all know 0/32 makes 0. Time for a price jump to $500K! 

How many offers to buy at $100K are out there for CGC 9.8 graded copies right now?  

If it's zero out of the entire comic book collecting community, it just might be time for a price adjustment back down to only $10K.    

 

[LDarkseid1]

6 hours ago, lou_fine said:

Yes, it's called FOMO and we have seen it throughout time when it comes to the stock market and we had also seen it with AF 15 and Hulk 181 on an on and off basis during the past few years.  

The only problem with FOMO is that buyers need to be very careful as prices can clearly overshoot at times due to irrational exuberance and you certainly wouldn't want to be caught buying at the wrong time when prices can be a lot cheaper later on.  

Yeah I mean I feel pretty confident with my buy if that’s what you were eluding to. Also I get FOMO, but that would make more sense to me as far as what happens after the initial big sale that’s out of the norm (this $12.5K 7.5), not what “causes” a mega rise to start. As the 7.5 was creeping up and up at auction to an abnormally high amount I get how FOMO caused people to buy the 9.0 and 9.4 outright that were sitting on eBay, that definitely makes sense. But yeah, not sure why that would have an effect on a random auction copy. Also I see someone brought up Seth Rogen. I didn’t know he was doing something TMNT related so maybe that had an effect.

Edited August 9, 2020 by LDarkseid1

[Sonic77]

Crazy, saw a TMNT #1 2nd print CGC 6.0 go for just over $1k today.  I have no doubt the Seth Rogen announcement helped a lot with the prices going up and the major FOMO we're seeing.

 

Also since I'm pretty new here I'll introduce my qualifications for the TMNT#1 Club:

TMNT #1 2nd print CGC 9.2 signed

TMNT #1 5th print CGC 7.0 signed 

[SpideyFein]

9 hours ago, rich_TMNT said:

 

Back in December last year, I found out about this proof and conversed with a comic shop owner who was friends with the owner of this proof.  He sent me a few key interior page images that I requested.  From my limited evaluation (just those few key interior pages), this printer's proof does seem to be the real thing.  It's at least consistent in the few pages I was provided when compared to the interior pages of TMNT #1 1st & 2nd printings.  What can't really be proven is whether this is a proof from the 1st printing run (May, 1984) or the 2nd printing run (June, 1984) since the page images of both printings are identical in size and have many of the same anomalies / characteristics.  Both 1st & 2nd printings came from the same negatives and possibly even the same printing plates (given they were only printed a month apart).  The dark lines across the bottoms of some pages appear in many copies of the 1st & 2nd printings but not all of them.  It does seem that in some copies, they are less prominent.  My hypothesis is that the dark lines dissipated in the copies from the mid-end of the print run and so copies with the most prominent lines at the bottom were from the beginning of the print runs and the lighter / non-existent lines were from the end of the print runs.  If this hypothesis holds true, then the proof of any run would need to have the darkest / most prominent lines.  This proof does have dark / prominent lines at the bottoms of the key pages I've seen.

Ever since I acquired the TMNT #1 negatives, I've been searching for a printer's proof with pages that contain all the same anomalies / characteristics that only the original negatives could have created.  A different proof I evaluated earlier last year had some of the correct characteristics but not all - and that makes it questionable.  It's not definitively a deal-killer but proof copies would literally be the first to come off the press run and would be quickly evaluated for accuracy before the rest of the print run was completed.  Proofs from a print run should match the entire print run almost exactly - that is, unless something was found incorrect in the proof and then changed for the print run after the proof was made.  A proof that's different in any way from the pages of the actual print run can't really be called a proof from that print run (at least in my thinking).

All to say, this is such a cool item and I'm very interested in watching what it goes for.  Ultimately, I'd really like to be able to evaluate every page of this proof and compare against the negatives.  I'm hoping once the auction goes live they'll have more interior page pictures, especially the key pages with unique identifying marks.

Your background knowledge and attention to detail never cease to amaze me. I am curious about the other proof you had looked at. Do you think that was possibly a second and this is a first. The fact that you think this is the real deal gives it provenance in my book. I think it will do well, especially with turtles now selling at all time highs. 
 

I had recently wanted to upgrade a few things, but I’ll just leave them sitting pretty as is. Early Mirage, not just #1’s, are going nuts too. It’s wild. 

[ghn999]

Im just glad I pick up 6 TMNT 1 1st print in January 2020! Price is sky rocketing, just like the stock market!!!

[rich_TMNT]

8 hours ago, SpideyFein said:

Your background knowledge and attention to detail never cease to amaze me. I am curious about the other proof you had looked at. Do you think that was possibly a second and this is a first. The fact that you think this is the real deal gives it provenance in my book. I think it will do well, especially with turtles now selling at all time highs. 
 

I had recently wanted to upgrade a few things, but I’ll just leave them sitting pretty as is. Early Mirage, not just #1’s, are going nuts too. It’s wild. 

Thanks!  I really do enjoy investigating and documenting - specifically Turtles and definitely TMNT #1.  In regards to the other proof I looked at, it actually had more characteristics in common with the counterfeit #1 than it did with the 1st or 2nd printings.  The counterfeit (and that proof) are missing most of the little anomalies outside the page artwork borders - which I believe were purposefully removed by whomever made the counterfeits in order to clean up the pages.  The pages of the counterfeit actually look "cleaner" than do the authentic 1st & 2nd printing pages - and I think the counterfeiter figured it would look counterfeit if he didn't clean it up.  But those little anomalies were a direct result of how the negatives were stripped and they exist in every copy of a 1st or 2nd printing.  So, them not being present proves that proof couldn't have come from the same print run that produced the 1st & 2nd printings.  It also can't be a 3rd printing proof because of the existence of things in that proof that DON'T actually exist in 3rd printings...namely from Page 29 where the line in the bottom right corner of the artwork is missing from only the 1st & 2nd printings.  I'm nearly positive that the other proof I inspected was a proof from a counterfeit press run where the source used was photos or page scans of a 1st or 2nd printing that were cleaned up.  The owner was understandably upset and did not agree with my assessment (or my offer) but, the pages don't lie. 

And yes, early Mirage is really heating up.  I just think back to the days 30 years ago when I could walk into any comic book store and find TMNT Vol. I back issues everywhere (and for cheap).  Now, my local shops want $30-50 for pretty much any issue of Vol. I they have (and they don't have many issues).  Not to mention Turtlemania (white) - between 1988 and 2000 I must have seen somewhere around 250 copies of that thing buried in back-issue bins for $3 each (or less).  That book was everywhere but NO ONE except Turtles collectors wanted it.  Crazy.

[pubmonkey]

3 hours ago, ghn999 said:

Im just glad I pick up 6 TMNT 1 1st print in January 2020! Price is sky rocketing, just like the stock market!!!

You can’t say something like that without showing pics....