FF Price Surge....what will the Guide say?

[blowout]

What you are implying is that Overstreet's NM value is really guide price for a book that might or might not really be NM, and might or might not be unrestored.

 

No thats not what I am implying.

You are completely overlooking the SERVICE that CGC are providing to the buyer of a comic book. This service is creating a confidence and reassurance of the quality of product. Overstreet has nothing to do with that, and their guide is attempting to reflect raw comic book prices. Not comic books that have been value added by the CGC service, which in turn are selling for a 'value added' premium.

[Mushroom]

I am not sure that I agree with that Blowout. How long then would the value continue? Until the Micro Chamber wears off? I tend to agree with Sfilosa in that OS 9.4 is not a true representation of what the market is paying. I don't think that Overstreet is willing to admit that they no longer determine what should go for what in the high end market. CGC has made them redundant in this area.

 

My humble opinion.

[blowout]

I tend to agree with Sfilosa in that OS 9.4 is not a true representation of what the market is paying. I don't think that Overstreet is willing to admit that they no longer determine what should go for what in the high end market.

 

Oh I agree with him too that Overstreet does not reflect the market on high grade books. What I don't think they should be doing though is quoting CGC multiples as they only account for a small portion of the market. HG raw prices do not generally fetch CGC prices, and nor should they in view of what I said in the previous post.

[drbanner]

There needs to be two price guides - one for "raw" (aka the Overstreet Price Guide), and one for "slabbed" (aka GPA, or something similar). The raw guide does need to bump up 9.4 prices for pre-1975 books, but there's a problem in that you're getting into a grey area where differing grading standards are going to come into play, big time! Some mentions also needs to be made of the "value" of 9.4+ books, since the grading guide does discuss them. OS also needs to drop prices on most 1965 and newer books below VF...which for years have been selling at 30-50% less than guide.

[fantastic_four]

The only people who feel the OS Guide is totally out of whack and nigh unto worthless would seem to be the people focused only on high grade.

 

Hence, that's why I'm complaining so much.

 

 

If everything you own is CGC NM- 9.2 and above, then you may have a problem with your claims adjuster if they just go by the OS Guide. In that instance, I'm guessing you'd be deep-pocketed enough to take the matter to court and bring in a couple of experts like BlazingBob to back up your contention that the NM+ 9.6 books in your collection should be valued at some multiple of guide.

 

The court costs would eat all my appreciation wiggle room. For the sake of argument, let's say I've got $25K worth of high grade books going by actual market prices...and let's say the Overstreet NM 9.4 value of those books is $15K. Do I mind paying $5K to $15K in court costs and expert testimony to recoup the difference? I think you can do that math...

 

I would think the vast majority of the owners of the 9.2 and up books Overstreet misreports prices for have a total inventory valued at less than 100K, and that's just not enough money to have a lawyer and experts eating up 10% all the way up to 100% of the difference between Overstreet NM and actual market prices.

[sfilosa]

There needs to be two price guides - one for "raw" (aka the Overstreet Price Guide), and one for "slabbed" (aka GPA, or something similar). The raw guide does need to bump up 9.4 prices for pre-1975 books, but there's a problem in that you're getting into a grey area where differing grading standards are going to come into play, big time! Some mentions also needs to be made of the "value" of 9.4+ books, since the grading guide does discuss them. OS also needs to drop prices on most 1965 and newer books below VF...which for years have been selling at 30-50% less than guide.

 

 

No doubt that they should drop VF price from 1965 on, but then I wouldn't feel like I was getting such a good deal when I do buy them at 50% off guide.

[garthgantu]

 

I would think the vast majority of the owners of the 9.2 and up books Overstreet misreports prices for have a total inventory valued at less than 100K, and that's just not enough money to have a lawyer and experts eating up 10% all the way up to 100% of the difference between Overstreet NM and actual market prices.

 

Well, here's another solution: Just insure your collection for what you feel it's worth, and pay that premium. I'm guessing you can find more than a few insurers willing to take your money to insure your collection, at a valuation determined by you..? After all, they'll take your money without coming out to your house to assess the comics, so they should be willing to make good if something were to happen to the books.

 

Furthermore, it's kind of a sorry state of affairs if the OS Guide's main usefulness is to educate insurance adjusters. If the comics in question are slabbed, it shouldn't be that hard to use GPA to generate a list of the same books you own(ed) in the same grade, and what they sold for most recently. That would satisfy the insurance company, I expect.

 

No question that the OS Guide is off the mark for going rates on GA, SA and BA books in NM 9.4 and above. With few exceptions, books meeting those criteria sell for above guide. But

- if the OS Guide tried to reflect these prices, there'd be numerous holes in the data (Can/should OS assume that a Magnus Robot Fighter #13 in NM 9.4 is worth 4x the previous guide listing just because one Magnus Robot Fighter #12 sold for 4x five months ago?).

- how would the OS Guide apply this concept to modern books, which rise and fall even more quickly in terms of value in high grade?

 

The more I think about it, the more it seems like a broad disclaimer at the front of the book, accompanied by some attempt to quantify the multiples paid for NM 9.4 and above (by era), might be the best compromise. Even then, the owners of key GA and SA books in NM+ 9.6 and above will be unhappy...?

[joe_collector]

True, but what does the OS guide have to do with CGC graded books and the extra premiums they recieve?

 

Okay, how about: Dealers with true NM raw copies, sell them for Guide multiples anyway. CGC is such an influence at the high-end, I don't know of a dealer with premium raw books, that prices close to Oversrteet.

[panhandlefool]

[Well, here's another solution: Just insure your collection for what you feel it's worth, and pay that premium. I'm guessing you can find more than a few insurers willing to take your money to insure your collection, at a valuation determined by you..? After all, they'll take your money without coming out to your house to assess the comics, so they should be willing to make good if something were to happen to the books.

 

Exactly what I do - I insure thru State Farm for what I pay for the book. I have a few books in a safe deposit box that I have recently dropped from that policy. The insurance is based on a percentage of the value you determine, so you can really insure it for the amount you specify. I suppose if there were a claim the insurer could claim your insured amount was too high, but if you could reasonably prove you paid that amount and/or it was a reasonable price thru ebay/GPAnalysis/other auction sales, you should be okay.

[fantastic_four]

Well, here's another solution: Just insure your collection for what you feel it's worth, and pay that premium. I'm guessing you can find more than a few insurers willing to take your money to insure your collection, at a valuation determined by you..? After all, they'll take your money without coming out to your house to assess the comics, so they should be willing to make good if something were to happen to the books.

 

I'm not intimately familiar with insurance, but will they really take my word on market value? All I ever hear about insurance companies is that they're in the business of not paying claims, so I have to pessimistically assume they'll do whatever they can to pay nothing or to pay as little as possible. Overstreet being a long-time comic book industry standard is an argument that would even make sense to me if a claims adjuster made it--I'm afraid I'd have to go to court with my expert witnesses to prove to a judge that Overstreet is wrong!!! It occurs to me that I shouldn't have to do that; Overstreet should just fix its prices instead of misreporting them.

 

 

Furthermore, it's kind of a sorry state of affairs if the OS Guide's main usefulness is to educate insurance adjusters.

 

Who said that's its main usefulness? I don't buy it every year to have it handy for a claims adjuster.

 

 

No question that the OS Guide is off the mark for going rates on GA, SA and BA books in NM 9.4 and above. With few exceptions, books meeting those criteria sell for above guide. But

- if the OS Guide tried to reflect these prices, there'd be numerous holes in the data (Can/should OS assume that a Magnus Robot Fighter #13 in NM 9.4 is worth 4x the previous guide listing just because one Magnus Robot Fighter #12 sold for 4x five months ago?).

- how would the OS Guide apply this concept to modern books, which rise and fall even more quickly in terms of value in high grade?

 

I don't know whether they should do it for Modern at all. Few people would argue that the modern and late Bronze markets are fundamentally different due to the higher supply.

 

 

The more I think about it, the more it seems like a broad disclaimer at the front of the book, accompanied by some attempt to quantify the multiples paid for NM 9.4 and above (by era), might be the best compromise. Even then, the owners of key GA and SA books in NM+ 9.6 and above will be unhappy...?

 

I agree, and if they did this already and didn't mis-report the 9.4 column on rare, vintage comics, I wouldn't have any major problem with Overstreet. I still find it incredibly useful for everything except the market on comics which are in short supply, which for Gold is 9.0 or better, Silver is 9.2 or better, Bronze is 9.6 or better, and modern is 9.8 or better. For the Bronze and modern markets, they don't attempt to report prices on the rarer 9.6 or better books anyway, but the 9.4 column misrepresents what the Silver and Gold markets are really worth.

[fantastic_four]

Exactly what I do - I insure thru State Farm for what I pay for the book. I have a few books in a safe deposit box that I have recently dropped from that policy. The insurance is based on a percentage of the value you determine, so you can really insure it for the amount you specify.

 

What's the percentage of market value you pay?

 

 

I suppose if there were a claim the insurer could claim your insured amount was too high, but if you could reasonably prove you paid that amount and/or it was a reasonable price thru ebay/GPAnalysis/other auction sales, you should be okay.

 

I hope you're right, but I always hear that insurance companies will weasel out of payments whenever and however they can...I'd feel a lot more comfortable if they didn't have Overstreet as evidence in their corner to justify paying lower prices!

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

I hope you're right, but I always hear that insurance companies will weasel out of payments whenever and however they can...I'd feel a lot more comfortable if they didn't have Overstreet as evidence in their corner to justify paying lower prices!

 

I believe if you keep your receipts (actual receipts from dealers, cashed checks, credit card statements, or even a simple print out of the ebay page that listed the item), it would go a long way in establishing what the "value" of the book is.

 

And of course, you could always direct the adjuster to a reputable dealer, slip the guy a $50, and have him make sure to give your books a proper valuation.

[fantastic_four]

I believe if you keep your receipts (actual receipts from dealers, cashed checks, credit card statements, or even a simple print out of the ebay page that listed the item), it would go a long way in establishing what the "value" of the book is.

 

Arghhh...where have you been my whole collecting life?!!? All those years of not collecting paperwork...

[uclapeterg]

I have enjoyed this "battle" between fantastic four and jiveturkeymofo, two of my biggest rivals for high grafe FF's. Meanwhile, I have been buying high grade FF's on Ebay during this. So thanks!

[garthgantu]

I hope you're right, but I always hear that insurance companies will weasel out of payments whenever and however they can...I'd feel a lot more comfortable if they didn't have Overstreet as evidence in their corner to justify paying lower prices!

 

FF, if your insurance provider is going to go to any lengths to avoid paying, they'd probably turn to eBay as the 'best' source of info re: the value of your comics... how's that for a scary thought?

 

Lastly, the OS Guide already lists several pages of examples of high prices realized for books - including CGCed books - near the front of each edition. I think OS is being very circumspect re: CGC and its effect on high grade comic prices, and is for the most part doing its best to reflect a rapidly changing landscape...

[fantastic_four]

I think OS is being very circumspect re: CGC and its effect on high grade comic prices, and is for the most part doing its best to reflect a rapidly changing landscape...

 

Did paying multiples of guide start with the advent of CGC? No...my research to date indicates it started back when "file" copies and pedigrees began as popular concepts back in the 1970s. When Borock posted last week he was paying 10 times guide back in the 1990s for the rarer Gold and Silver books and still turning them for a profit, did you disbelieve him? Would it surprise you to discover that many more of the people with the top collections today were paying multiples of guide to get the best copies long before CGC started?

 

My conversations with various long-time collectors indicates Overstreet NM prices being behind actual market value is not a new phenomenon, the Internet and CGC just made a lot more people aware of it.

[panhandlefool]

Exactly what I do - I insure thru State Farm for what I pay for the book. I have a few books in a safe deposit box that I have recently dropped from that policy. The insurance is based on a percentage of the value you determine, so you can really insure it for the amount you specify.

 

What's the percentage of market value you pay?

 

 

I suppose if there were a claim the insurer could claim your insured amount was too high, but if you could reasonably prove you paid that amount and/or it was a reasonable price thru ebay/GPAnalysis/other auction sales, you should be okay.

 

I hope you're right, but I always hear that insurance companies will weasel out of payments whenever and however they can...I'd feel a lot more comfortable if they didn't have Overstreet as evidence in their corner to justify paying lower prices!

Regarding #1, I usually pay one auction notch above the second highest bidder. Seriously, I suppose I'm like anyone else - I buy what I like at a price I'm willing to pay. We've all seen "steals" on auctions and final auction amounts that would make you drop your jaw. I don't go and compete with the big boys, but I'm willing to pay a fair price. How's that for a non-answer answer!!

 

On #2, I suppose it would come down to your insurance company. I have kept some receipts on bigger books (but not all) and I do try to record all actual purchases on Quicken (personal finance software), but I would think if you have a major claim there are a lot of places to go out and get reasonable estimates - GPAnalysis, ComicLink, eBay, Heritage auctions, etc. And "Wizard" often lists CGC sales, so if you have a reputable insurance company, I don't think you would/should be trapped by OStreet. FYI, I don't insure my general "collection", but specific bigger books at the price I paid.

 

Hope this helps.

[cvttrdr1-migration]

OS offers so much more than Wizard. I'm never again going to purchase a wizard,but OS is always going to be welcome in my home.One thing i'd like to see reflected in the guides is some kind of recognition of the scarcity of certain issues. How many high grade ff 17-18 do you see? They're not thought of in the same terms as the early issues,but if you look at the census,there are only 12 17's and 9 18's graded above 9. I daresay there are far more people just on this board who want those issues in those grades(thinkin some of you would'nt settle for a mere 9.0 either).In comaprison,there are 8 #3's,17 # 2's and a whopping 148 # 48.

[blowout]

How many high grade ff 17-18 do you see? They're not thought of in the same terms as the early issues,but if you look at the census,there are only 12 17's and 9 18's graded above 9. I daresay there are far more people just on this board who want those issues in those grades(thinkin some of you would'nt settle for a mere 9.0 either).In comaprison,there are 8 #3's,17 # 2's and a whopping 148 # 48.

 

Having said all that, why would people even be submitting FF 17 & 18? The reasons for submitting keys is obvious and contributes to the high numbers on the census.What you have to really be looking at to determine HG scarcity is the % of books submitted to CGC that have been getting 9.0 and above. Not purely the total number.

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

Having said all that, why would people even be submitting FF 17 & 18? The reasons for submitting keys is obvious and contributes to the high numbers on the census.What you have to really be looking at to determine HG scarcity is the % of books submitted to CGC that have been getting 9.0 and above. Not purely the total number

 

Gee, I don't know, why would anyone submit a high grade pre-1964 Marvel with a Guide value of $400+? Could it be the instant doubling/tripling/quadrupling of their collectible's value? Key or not, I would wager that most of the "known" (i.e., transacted in the marketplace within the last 20 years) copies of these two books have already been submitted to CGC, with a couple of exceptions.

 

And I hate to tell ya, but any long-time FF collector will validate that FF 17 & 18, for whatever reason, are very hard to find in NM. # 17 especially is a tough nut to crack, with # 18 not falling too far behind.