stock market is at 1996 levels ..... so why can't I buy comics at 1996 prices?

[delekkerste]

You can buy more than 90% of 1996 comics at 1996 prices.

 

How very true. Since most comics I own I bought off the rack between 1983 to 2008, I'm quite sure that my comic book collection as a whole is worth less than what I paid for it (if I actually had to sell it, not using bogus Guide prices). Even the CGC stuff I bought I'm sure hasn't gained all that much since most of it is Copper and Modern. The HG Bronze stuff I used to collect has probably done OK, but, even there, a lot of those prices shot higher very quickly in the early years of CGC and probably haven't done that much since - people forget the crazy prices paid back then and how prices evolved as more books were slabbed and the Census composition changed.

 

No question the stock market has sucked hard, but I'm sure I can still find plenty of stocks which still have large, even enormous, gains since 1996. Much as it would be unfair to use that small group of stocks to represent overall stock market performance, which has been abominably miserable, it is unfair to point only to the very small group of the comic market that has, for now, continued to perform.

 

In any case, beware of what you wish for - people may be able to buy comics at historical prices soon enough if the real world keeps imploding like this. Just to use an analogy, the Japanese stock market started tanking in 1990 and the fine art market followed suit for the next six years, with even the best-of-the-best-of-the-best art tanking 40% or more as the overall market crashed even more. And that was despite other economies/markets recovering and surging higher after 1993! Given that today's environment is at least an order of magnitude more dire, let's see what happens in the coming years.

 

As an aside, the aforementioned Japanese stock market can be bought today for about 1981-82 levels (roughly 80% off of peak levels). It might be worth remembering that no bull market lasts forever - do you realize that Warren Buffett has lost ALL of his unrealized capital gains in this bear market? Everybody looks like a genius when prices are going up, but it is when the tide turns that we stop confusing brains for a bull market. It's easy to buy, but infinitely more difficult to know when to sell.

[MR.COMICBOOK]

You can buy more than 90% of 1996 comics at 1996 prices.

 

How very true. Since most comics I own I bought off the rack between 1983 to 2008, I'm quite sure that my comic book collection as a whole is worth less than what I paid for it (if I actually had to sell it, not using bogus Guide prices). Even the CGC stuff I bought I'm sure hasn't gained all that much since the most of it is Copper and Modern. The HG Bronze stuff I used to collect has probably done OK, but, even there, a lot of those prices shot higher very quickly in the early years of CGC and probably haven't done that much since - people forget the crazy prices paid and how prices evolved as more books were slabbed and the Census composition changed.

 

No question the stock market has sucked hard, but I'm sure I can still find plenty of stocks which still have large, even enormous, gains since 1996. Much as it would be unfair to use that small(er) group of stocks to represent overall stock market performance, which has been abominably miserable, it is unfair to point only to the very small group of the comic market that has, for now, continued to perform.

 

In any case, beware of what you wish for - people may be able to buy comics at historical prices soon enough if the real world keeps imploding like this. Just to use an analogy, the Japanese stock market tanked started tanking in 1990 and the fine art market followed suit for the next six years, with even the best-of-the-best-of-the-best art tanking 40% or more as the overall market crashed even more. And that was despite other economies/markets recovering and surging higher after 1993! Given that today's environment is at least an order of magnitude more dire, let's see what happens in the coming years.

 

As an aside, the Japanese stock market can be bought today for roughly 1981 levels (roughly 80% off of peak levels). It might be worth remembering that no bull market lasts forever - do you realize that Warren Buffett has lost ALL of his unrealized capital gains in this bear market? Everybody looks like a genius when prices are going up, but it is when the tide turns that we stop confusing brains for a bull market. It's easy to buy, but infinitely more difficult to know when to sell.

good points.

[Bosco685]

It might be worth remembering that no bull market lasts forever - do you realize that Warren Buffett has lost ALL of his unrealized capital gains in this bear market?

 

I heard this the other day on CNN that it was some ridiculous loss rate like 60% less value. Especially since he invested heavy in AMEX, BofA, Comcast, Costco, and Nike, you would think some of those household brands would weather some of the storm better than others.

 

But then again, let's remember he has been at this a long time, and when others are bailing out of the market he is probably buying up stock that are at rock-bottom prices.

[Bosco685]

Sorry if I went off road on you but the question's silly logic made stating the obvious answer less interesting than tossing in a hand grenade.

 

I think the worst possible scenario is always more interesting to talk about rather than just putting this puzzle to rest.

I hear ya.

 

Just get a little worried when you hear stories like families wiping themselves out because they feel there is no light at the end of the tunnel.

 

But back to the thread intent, it's like the fellow that posted under the WTB he wanted to buy a Hulk 181 CGC 9.4 at 50% of GPA, and the flamming he received. Guess his thoughts were wanting to go back-in-time and purchase at 1990 levels as well.

[MR.COMICBOOK]

I need a kid first.

 

1) they are pretty easy to make

2) they are REALLY fun to make!

 

 

 

 

-slym

3. They cost money to take care of.

4. You will lose lots of sleep

5. you will have little or no social life.

6. you will always be worried about them.

[PEP]

Now is the time to buy stocks. If I only knew what to buy.

[conditionfreak]

Warren Buffet says that the smart investors buy when everyone else is scared to buy.

 

I know that most of us think we are just a tad smarter than the other guy. But I gotta go with the guys that have proven they are winners.

 

I am buying stocks now, and whatever happens, happens.

 

I also believe that I can sell 90% of the books I own, at least for what I paid for them. But in the interest of full disclosure, I bought out collections at 25 or 50 cents per book, and no junky stuff.

 

Having said all of that. I can honestly say that my comic books have given me more enjoyment than my Deferred Compensation investments.

 

Comic books from 1968 and earlier are no doubt worth more than you paid for them (assuming some things). This modern stuff MAY be worth more later, or may not. Time will tell. I won't live long enough to find out, sadly. I hope you all do well with them.

[Bosco685]

Warren Buffet says that the smart investors buy when everyone else is scared to buy.

Exactly. Go with companies that are not making crazy decisions, but their industry is suffering through the economy right now which impacts everyone.

 

But in his case, he buys a major stake and can drive their direction.

[dekeuk]

Now is the time to buy stocks. If I only knew what to buy.

 

EBAY

 

 

[KEY ISSUES Comics]

So, are you all saying NOW is the time to sell those NEW MUTANTS #87 & 98s?!?!?!

[Wally's Comics]

Nah, you're not paying attention. Stocks drop, comics ALWAYS perform. Buy, buy, buy!

 

I always get nervous when someone says something like this.

 

It was only a few years ago when I heard someone say the same thing about a

500k home.

 

I didn't believe it then either...

 

 

I would say that major keys is where it's at,

but I can't say with any certainty that comics won't fall

victim to this bumbling economy like everything else.

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

You can buy more than 90% of 1996 comics at 1996 prices.

 

I want to buy pre-1980 high grade at the prices they were selling for in 1996

 

Is that too much to ask?

 

 

I want to buy pre-1980 high grade at the prices they were selling for pre-1980.

 

Is THAT too much to ask...?

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

How much was a mid-grade AF #15 going for in 1996?

 

A portfolio of high grade pre-100 ASM's bought in 1996 versus buying an S&P 500 index mutual fund in 1996?

 

How's that for an investment comparison?

 

The worst part of the mutual fund investment is that you are not at 1996 levels because you got nailed for 13 years of management fees, and 2009 dollars are worth a lot less than 1996 dollars. The real buying power after all that is less than half the 1996 buying power.

 

 

 

 

 

The risk in high grade/key silver was much, much greater in 1996 than stocks. People were restoring them left and right and selling them as unrestored.

 

It was a bloodbath.

 

Almost literally, in some cases, when the owners found out about it 4-5 years later.

 

Imagine spending $50,000 on a "NM/M" AF #15 in 1996, a quite reasonable sum at the time, and then discovering it was trimmed, color touched, and pieces added......

 

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

It's not fair to compare super high grade SA books, AF15 and the other hot books to the overall stock market. There are plenty of comics that are worth less than they were many years ago.

 

Look at the valuations of low grade comics versus the valuations of high grade comics. When I started collecting a G book was worth 50% of the NMint price, now the spread is much much larger. Most low/mid grade comics haven't gone up in value in many years and they typically sell for 50% or less of guide.

 

Look at funny animal books, classic Bark's Donald Duck, or most non super hero GA fare, they are selling in most cases at much less than guide and probably haven't gone in guide value for a long time.

 

Some comics have increased in value because a core of collectors, us, ignore current events and buy what we love. I'm not sure how long that will continue

 

This is absolutely spot on correct.

 

Think of the devastating impact that the 1998 OPG "adjustment" (whereby, prices for Fine and Good were dropped substantial percentages in relation to NM) had on the values of mid-grade or lower books. It took nearly a decade, in some instances, for Fine levels in the OPG to return to what they were in 1997 (and rightfully so, the market, as a whole, turns its nose up at anything less than "super high grade", and always has. But that doesn't change the guys who were ok buying mid-grade keys and runs who got caught with their pants down.)

 

So, on the one hand, you had the risk, in high grade, of massive amounts of undisclosed restoration, and on the other, a horrendous "downgrading" of values of mid and low grade comics in the market.

 

The folks who won were the high grade folks who either had excellent restoration noses or got really, really lucky.

 

Not so rosy as it may appear on paper, then, no?

[Jeffro.]

You can buy more than 90% of 1996 comics at 1996 prices.

 

I want to buy pre-1980 high grade at the prices they were selling for in 1996

 

Is that too much to ask?

 

 

 

I want to buy them at the prices they were selling for in 1986

[dekeuk]

 

 

 

The folks who won were the high grade folks who either had excellent restoration noses or got really, really lucky.

 

 

the folks who won were the ones that cherry picked ultra high grade bronze during the 1990's, when you could buy a 9.2 to 9.8 Neal Adams cover for $1 because it was not broken out in the guide (only books with Adams interior art were broken out)

 

bronze was not worth restoring for the most part, if you cherry picked ultra high grade bronze in the 90's, you won when CGC was created

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Bruce1971]

Not that its a big difference, but those Adams covers were probably $5 each. Just becasue they were not noted in the guide did not mean a lot of collectors or deals did not know what they were. I remember collecting a lot of the popular horror stuff in the 90's. It was cheap but the stuff was picked over pretty quick.

 

Bruce

[byosti]

some of these super high grade comics could come down too, just imagine if there was a ton of newly discovered highgrade books in lots of old folks homes, increasing the supply and all. that would slow stuff downa bit

[nocutename]

While I did not read though this whole thread... I pulled a book out of the library about DC Comics and there is a pic of Action 1 and the caption reads, "...a mint copy of Action Comics #1 recently sold for $137,500." So I checked the copyright date of the book which is listed as first published 1995. So I am guessing the sale was a year before that. A couple of years before your target date but still not a bad investiment. Wonder what mint meant though.

[NYComics]

I think GE is a good stock to buy right now.

 

They took such a hit because of their financial divisions, but they own so many other manufacturing companies. I am sure we are going to go into a Buy American mentality eventually and then GE will go up.

 

seriously. It will be a $20 stock again. It's at 7 bux.