A healthy comic market?

[cyberjad]

So this may have been brought up numerous times before, so if I am double posting I apologize now.

 

With that out of the way, lets get to the meat of the question. How healthy a comic market do you think we are seeing? I can see many positives such as a weak economy and other investing opportunities currently looking poor.However, I am also left to wonder how much of the market is than just been pushed up by speculators. After all if you look at the join dates on this forum there are far more members that have very recently signed up (myself included). Is this a sign of a hobby gaining interest or unnatural demand?

 

We can easily look at how variant issues with President Obama on them are going for ridiculous prices, but I also wonder about what other prices are ridiculous. Every time a movie is announced with a comic title in the name prices on that book seem to sky-rocket. Examples would be Iron Man, Bone, Invincible.You will not several of those the movies have not even materialized and the books have seen ridiculous increases in price.

 

Next, I look at other books such as Amazing Fantasy #15, which in reality is not that rare a book and demands prices now that price even poor copies out of the market of most collectors. A 1.0 copy averages just $1200 in 2007 and now demands nearly $2000.

 

However, even golden age books that could be compared to the "blue chips" of our market such as early Batman comics have seen very large returns. If we look at the GPA for Batman #1 CGC 5.0 we will see the book as increased in "value" roughly 20% sense just May 2008! Are these not books that should show a slow steady rise in value and added stability?

 

 

( 5.0 ) - (1) $37,000 (2) $40,500 (1) $44,000 $44,000 Feb-2009

 

Lastly, I also notice wild sales data when we are look at simply CGC labels. I personally find myself collecting 9.6s and avoiding 9.8s due to the price premiums. Although, A large premium for a top census book or simply a "perfect book makes sense to me". That is something that the hobby has exhibited before there where labels and in not just apparent with our hobby, but is the nature of many collecting hobbies. However, I must stress that there are many times when top census books, 9.9, and particularly 10 books go for wild prices that just blow my mind. Case in point, a book which recently sold on the board (and I will not name), recently sold for $125 due to its CGC 10 grade. The book is worthless as its generally given away for free with purchases and seem to have little interest to collectors. Does it have "value" as $125? I can understand someone just wanting to have it and does not care about the value. Heck there are expensive things I dont plan on getting a return on when I purchase, such as a TV set. But, In my mind comics are a commodity as they have a set value, which they can be traded at. Such as stocks and bonds.

 

So with all that rant out. Lets here your thoughts. Is this a bubble waiting to burst? Do you think its just healthy rapid expansion that may cool? Do you think comics are the way to retire? Are there certain types of books you avoid collecting or certain type your purposely collect? Do you diversify your collections to avoid a market crash? Do you just not case about any of this because your comic money is just spare money anyways? Do you just think I talk too much?

[towards2112]

I like the high end going astronomical/multiple exponential up, up, up.

Makes the PLODs and GLODs look so much more enticing from a

financial investment. If it's a pretty book, and going into my private

hidey-hole I'd rather save a few bucks.

[Mr. Zipper]

I guess it depends on what you consider "the market."

 

Sure, we see mind boggling new highs seemingly every week. But these are blue chip books representing a tiny fraction of the overall population of books out there.

 

So, my Hulk 1, Avengers 1 and FF 1 are worth a lot more than what I paid for them a few years ago. That's offset by the long boxes of moderns and midgrade Silver that aren't worth the effort to burn them.

 

Is a market really "healthy" if only a very small fraction of the total population is worth anything?

 

 

 

[cyberjad]

These are actually both quite valid points that I failed to mention.

 

The one i would like to really also look at is the to GLOD and PLODs. The valuation of PLODS seems ridiculous in my mind and personally I try to look for SP books when acquiring a GA book. If you can find a book with slight restoration that in many cases be little more than conservation why should it drastically reduce the value of the book? Especially if it is work that is not visually apparent to the presentation of the covers of the book, such as rice paper reinforcement. I think Matt Nelson brings up some great points regarding this and an idea for a new grading system at: http://www.classicsincorporated.com/feature_articles.htm

[the blob]

That's offset by the long boxes of moderns and midgrade Silver that aren't worth the effort to burn them.

_________________________

 

I dunno about the moderns (although there's almost always a couple of half decent books even in a random assorted box of moderns), but I would be happy to take your midgrade silver off your hands if the effort to burn them is too much for you.

 

Next time I'm up in Albany shall I give you a call? Maybe I can bring a bottle of wine from one of your lovely local vineyards as a housewarming present? (Well, the Gunks at least, that's fairly local to you)

[NewWorldOrder]

Comics are like People, Most are worthless and some are the Gems!

[comicstock]

When interest rates are low (T-Bills & CDs) and the stock markets have taken a hit, money moves into collectibles. These investors spend their bucks on the better of the best, competing and driving up prices as they duke it out to win bids.

[Mr. Zipper]

That's offset by the long boxes of moderns and midgrade Silver that aren't worth the effort to burn them.

_________________________

 

I dunno about the moderns (although there's almost always a couple of half decent books even in a random assorted box of moderns), but I would be happy to take your midgrade silver off your hands if the effort to burn them is too much for you.

 

Next time I'm up in Albany shall I give you a call? Maybe I can bring a bottle of wine from one of your lovely local vineyards as a housewarming present? (Well, the Gunks at least, that's fairly local to you)

 

Ok... maybe I'm not going to burn my midgrade SA... but in many cases it's not worth what I paid for it 10 - 15 years ago (a loss if you consider the time value of money).

 

But if your are in Albany/Saratoga area, drop me a PM in advance. I'd love to share a bottle of vino.

[the blob]

I would say that my mid-grades SA is worth (in an ebay store setting rather than rolling the dice on an auction) more than I paid 10-15 years ago mainly because I am such a cheap that I made sure to pay bottom dollar for most of it. My LCS generally gave me 50-75% off of their marked prices and those were usually a bit under OPG and I pursued similar sorts of deals at shows. Of course, I avoided (mostly) high grade books this way as discounts on them weren't so doable, which wasn't a great thing.

 

Still, they'll mostly sell for $5-$15 (assuming not early SA/non-keys), which while isn't a huge amount and is a % of OPG, isn't chump change, especially in quantity. heck, look at the Flying Donut Model. Mile High Chuck looks at those $5 books as money from heaven.

 

i make the store/auction differentiation because of some recent auctions i had and i have seen it over and over. 2 hottish moderns from the last 15 years. $16.99 and $14.99 starting bids respectively. lots of looks, no bids. not hot book of the week books, but books that have been gaining momentum over the last couple of years.

 

stick them in my store and within a week one gets a best offer for $17 and the other is bought full price at $25.

 

what is market?

 

no doubt some high grade slab of a hard to find book may get driven up higher in an auction than if sitting in a store, but honestly, i think fewer collectors want to be bothered with auctions than 5 years ago, so I don't think they should factor in as much into what is "FMV" nowadays.

[MR.COMICBOOK]

So this may have been brought up numerous times before, so if I am double posting I apologize now.

 

With that out of the way, lets get to the meat of the question. How healthy a comic market do you think we are seeing? I can see many positives such as a weak economy and other investing opportunities currently looking poor.However, I am also left to wonder how much of the market is than just been pushed up by speculators. After all if you look at the join dates on this forum there are far more members that have very recently signed up (myself included). Is this a sign of a hobby gaining interest or unnatural demand?

 

We can easily look at how variant issues with President Obama on them are going for ridiculous prices, but I also wonder about what other prices are ridiculous. Every time a movie is announced with a comic title in the name prices on that book seem to sky-rocket. Examples would be Iron Man, Bone, Invincible.You will not several of those the movies have not even materialized and the books have seen ridiculous increases in price.

 

Next, I look at other books such as Amazing Fantasy #15, which in reality is not that rare a book and demands prices now that price even poor copies out of the market of most collectors. A 1.0 copy averages just $1200 in 2007 and now demands nearly $2000.

 

However, even golden age books that could be compared to the "blue chips" of our market such as early Batman comics have seen very large returns. If we look at the GPA for Batman #1 CGC 5.0 we will see the book as increased in "value" roughly 20% sense just May 2008! Are these not books that should show a slow steady rise in value and added stability?

 

 

( 5.0 ) - (1) $37,000 (2) $40,500 (1) $44,000 $44,000 Feb-2009

 

Lastly, I also notice wild sales data when we are look at simply CGC labels. I personally find myself collecting 9.6s and avoiding 9.8s due to the price premiums. Although, A large premium for a top census book or simply a "perfect book makes sense to me". That is something that the hobby has exhibited before there where labels and in not just apparent with our hobby, but is the nature of many collecting hobbies. However, I must stress that there are many times when top census books, 9.9, and particularly 10 books go for wild prices that just blow my mind. Case in point, a book which recently sold on the board (and I will not name), recently sold for $125 due to its CGC 10 grade. The book is worthless as its generally given away for free with purchases and seem to have little interest to collectors. Does it have "value" as $125? I can understand someone just wanting to have it and does not care about the value. Heck there are expensive things I dont plan on getting a return on when I purchase, such as a TV set. But, In my mind comics are a commodity as they have a set value, which they can be traded at. Such as stocks and bonds.

 

So with all that rant out. Lets here your thoughts. Is this a bubble waiting to burst? Do you think its just healthy rapid expansion that may cool? Do you think comics are the way to retire? Are there certain types of books you avoid collecting or certain type your purposely collect? Do you diversify your collections to avoid a market crash? Do you just not case about any of this because your comic money is just spare money anyways? Do you just think I talk too much?

 

You went with the 2 extremes Batman and Spiderman as your examples. you left out that you can buy almost any comic between 1980 to 1995 for under a dollar!

 

[Foolkiller]

Is there a bubble on high grade silver? yes.

 

Are the fundamentals of our hobby very strong? I'm a bit concerned these days.

 

Will keys long term continue to rise in value? Most likely.

[cyberjad]

Is there a bubble on high grade silver? yes.

 

Are the fundamentals of our hobby very strong? I'm a bit concerned these days.

 

Will keys long term continue to rise in value? Most likely.

 

 

Would you mind going into detail about "Are the fundamentals of our hobby very strong? I'm a bit concerned these days." I am interested to hear what you have to say