Official Market Crash Thread: Part Two!

[Guest]

Which Bronze 9.8s have you seen sell for new high prices, CI? I've been getting 9.8s here and there for less than the highs of the summer.

[murph0]

Actually there were some telling signs that the stock market was going to go into a down turn. It started when the first dot com stock filed for bankruptcy then was followed by an evaluation that a lot of dot com's business strategy was majorly flawed.

 

Brian

[comicinvestor-migration]

It's only influencing Key Issues, as the speculators are following the standard handbook on "How To Escape a Market Crash by Spending Your Way Out Of It".

 

Check out that Defenders #1 CGC 9.8 thread in the Marketplace. $2,200!!!

[Guest]

I'm one of the optimists, murph0. (regarding the market, not Meth)

 

I will do my best to look back through my CBGs this weekend and post a flow chart with the evolution and movement of the CGC sales ratios for the last 8-10 months.

[comicinvestor-migration]

Actually there were some telling signs that the stock market was going to go into a down turn.

 

So you're saying that there are no signs of a weakening CGC market, or that investors have "climbed the tree" away from paltry CGC 9.4 books to 9.6-9.8? That's fear taking over murph, and as happened in the stock markets, it ends up affecting everything in the long run.

[murph0]

What could I possibly be afraid of? The fact that I could buy the BOOKS that I LOVE for cheaper?? Yeh, I shudder at the thought..I guess all these hours of trying to find books for as cheap as possible is a front.

 

Brian

[Guest]

That may be a case of silly bidding for one of the first examples out of the chute. What remains to be seen is how many more Defenders 1 9.8 will follow? If the answer is very few, then the book may be worth chasing. If the answer in 5 years is 10-20, then 2K+ is probably too high.

 

How's the Hulk 182 9.8 doing?

[scottish]

My Qualified Hulk 181 is at $280.00. This is much better than I ever thought it would go for! I know it's a key Bronze age (maybe THE key), but 98% of collectors shudder at incomplete books.

[comicinvestor-migration]

You do understand what I'm talking about right, and you're just bugging me?

 

I'm not talking about prices miraculously dropping and you getting inexpensive CGC ASM's in today's climate. I'm referring to a long-term erosion of comic prices and demand, whereby collectiing ASM or any other comic is about as popular as the plague.

 

If you're still in there buying as the prices plummet, then you're a true collector with ice water for blood. I'm not driven by money in the least, but I do admit that I find it hard to collect anything that is in a huge downward spiral. I've left comic collecting during other market crashes, as I don't like the smell of blood.

[murph0]

Hey I like the character for what it is..value or no..If it becomes to the point where they're worth 10 dollars...5 dollars..1 dollar..I'll still buy it..until I have 1-441.

 

Brian

[Guest]

but I do admit that I find it hard to collect anything that is in a huge downward spiral. I've left comic collecting during other market crashes, as I don't like the smell of blood.

 

This is normal human sentiment, and is what makes 'buy low, sell high' so tough to accomplish for most people. Tech stocks looked much better in 2000 than automobile stocks looked in 1985. It is very easy to be washed away by positive sentiment, and to be beaten down by negative sentiment.

[scottish]

I'm the same way with Green Arrow and Conan (but only in SSOC - which is cheap anyway). If I could get ALL the appearances for a buck...shiite show me the way!

[Guest]

I am amazed by your Hulk 181 R as well, scottish. Even more amazing is the book continues to sell at the same level, despite healthy census numbers for 9.2-9.6 copies.

[murph0]

It may be but for some of us it's just buy what you want..I still own shares of stock of Mcleod USA..a company that was at 100 dollars 2 years ago and is now worth 50 cents..I stayed invested b/c I think it's good that a local Iowa company is/was starting to do well. Sometimes people spend money b/c they believe in or love something..not b/c of the inherit value in it, which is one of the key flaws that CI fails to see in a lot of people.

 

Brian

[delekkerste]

Trust me..I would love for them to hit 100 dollars..I've been there when they were before and have no doubt that they're worth at LEAST that much to me.

 

A price correction of that magnitude would likely only occur in the context of an economic environment so negative that the people on this Board are going to have bigger problems to worry about than scooping up all the comic bargains out there. Except for certain Bronze books (as CI has noted), I don't think prices are so inflated that prices would fall 2/3rds or more (as in Murph's example) if the economy stabilizes or improves. However, I think there is a high risk that we will see precisely such a depressed & deflationary economic environment at some point in the next few years, which will curb all of our enthusiasm for spending big bucks on plastic-slabbed funny books (much as the Japanese appetite for spending through the nose for luxury and trophy assets plummeted as their economy fell off a cliff in the 1990s).

 

Those dealers and collectors forecasting future prices based on recent demand and their comic experience over the past 30 years (a timeframe which encompasses the inflationary hard asset boom of the 70s, the development of the direct sales comic market and accompanying expansion of the hobby, the baby boomer nostalgia boom, rise of eBay and online comic dealing, and the greatest economic expansion and creation of wealth in world history, all of which helped boost comic prices) are looking squarely in the rearview mirror and ignoring the looming precipice. IMHO.

 

Gene

[The_Man_Of_Steel]

Speaking of, that is an issue (Incredible HULK 181) that has more than tripled in value over the past 10 years. I can remember when that issue was valued at $300 in NM condition, what is it at now? $1,100! Is that too much, IMO yes, and if it drops in book value, that only means I'll be in the market to buy one. Wolvie is my favorite X-Man

 

To be more balanced though in this discussion there are many books that are valued at either about the same price they were 10 years ago or in some cases less. Need an example? How about a little hint...Punisher. Everything went down, from the mini series, to the first regular series, to the War Journal issues, even the popular Jim Lee issues went down to pratically cover price. Oh well, that just means I bought a good number of them raw for .25 cents each and some of them are even worth reading.

 

Hey CI, how many of those Amazing Spider-Man 129's do you have now? Better get rid of them before the market crashes, say I know someone that might be interested in one.

[comicinvestor-migration]

I'm not saying I follow the crowd in the least, as I've always "bought where they ain't" and have never fell for a single scam yet. I laughed at the independant market suckers, I laughed at the boneheads piling up on Valiants and I continue to scoff at the Ultimate insufficiently_thoughtful_persons putting their life savings into an obvious fad.

 

I remember quite vividly buying stacks and stacks of late-Silver, early-Bronze comics and having people at the counter make snide comments about how I spent my money. I'd take a quick look at their "Fish Police/Valiant" investments and casually mention they were and move on.

 

What gets me down is the overall climate in a serious crash. Buyers are angry, sellers are depressed and it's just not a fun time to go around picking the bones of the dearly departed.

[delekkerste]

Actually there were some telling signs that the stock market was going to go into a down turn. It started when the first dot com stock filed for bankruptcy then was followed by an evaluation that a lot of dot com's business strategy was majorly flawed.

 

Easy to say in hindsight. I'm sure they'll be making some pat ex post ipso facto excuse about CGC prices falling too.

 

"Well, it was obvious things were getting out of hand when a Defenders #1 CGC 9.8 sold for over $2200. I mean, come on, this is the lowly DEFENDERS we're talking about here."

 

Gene

[scottish]

However, I think there is a high risk that we will see precisely such a depressed & deflationary economic environment at some point in the next few years, which will curb all of our enthusiasm for spending big bucks on plastic-slabbed funny books (much as the Japanese appetite for spending through the nose for luxury and trophy assets plummeted as their economy fell off a cliff in the 1990s).

 

If the U.S. economy mirrors Japan (which I know it does to some degree) I won't be buying anything but food.

 

Thankfully I'll keep thinking positively and believe, like the majority of economists that the U.S. economy will recover.

[Guest]

It may be but for some of us it's just buy what you want..I still own shares of stock of Mcleod USA..a company that was at 100 dollars 2 years ago and is now worth 50 cents..I stayed invested b/c I think it's good that a local Iowa company is/was starting to do well. Sometimes people spend money b/c they believe in or love something..not b/c of the inherit value in it, which is one of the key flaws that CI fails to see in a lot of people.

 

I agree with you on the comic aspect of this post; not so much on the stock/investment angle. I buy comics because I like them, and I still read 40-60 titles a month. I'd prefer to see appreciation in value, but I'm not taking that outcome as inevitable. I fall into the 'buy what you want' camp as well.