Official Market Crash Thread: Part Two!

[scottish]

Please note that what has not dropped, and, which I believe (unlike both CI and delekkerste) will not drop in price, are post-1966 "keys", both Bronze and Silver. Recent sales of Bronze "keys" on eBay are bearing this out - note sales on ASM 129, Giant Size X-Men 1 and others, for example.

 

This is 100% correct as of this week. I had excellent sales on the ASM 129 (725.00 BIN) and the GS X-Men (350.00 BIN). Hell, the Qualified Hulk 181 (which just about everyone said was ) is at 405.00 with still a week to go!

 

[comicinvestor-migration]

I don't know where anyone got the idea that I'm predicting a melt-down on CGC ultra keys like Hulk 181 and ASM 129....

[scottish]

Sorry CI I was just quoting FD's post.

[clobberintime]

Ok now my real response to you, dekelester, and any others who it seems misunderstood what i was trying to state. so I will articulate it a little better. prior to cgc as i stated some of the top dealers could always get above guide for rare, key near perfect books pre-1966 publishing date. Duh. Did you ever see people paying guide or above on bronze and modern books prior to cgc - I mean for non-key , not real hard to find stuff? I know a lot of dealers and store owners and i never saw it happening or discused. The only books that sold at prices over guide were the hot items - death of supes, spawn 1, Valiant - that came and went very quickly. Above guide prices for Bronze and up books have been sustained by cgc grading now for about 3 years. Like i previously said the percentage above guide someone pays for books 9.0+ is purely arbitrary. There is no guide and no real long term precedent to say what the price should be. so what - 9.6 Spidey 150 sold at $200 in the middle of movie hype and now it only goes for $100. what if guide is $40? precgc that book was probably selling for $20 at best. The people making money on this are the folks with good eyes sending in there high grade bronze or whatever that was not selling. The losers are the fools who paid top price in the middle of a frenzy looking to resell the books. Prices on these things fluctuate as 3 years is not enough to firmly establish exact prices and they also ebb and flow with various movie hype and new speculators. Wherefore, having set forth my argument, i would respectfully request the honorable board to dismiss the plaintiff's complaint and for such further relief as this board may deem appropriate - such as baning all future crash threads until the sky really is falling. But I will seriously go out on a limb and say that when and if we start a war with Iraq, i fully expect a real crash in these prices. I think it will have a devastating effect on the entire economy unless it concludes very quickly.

[comicinvestor-migration]

Here is the main point that bothers me, and for all intents and purposes, guarantees a CGC crash, just as occured in coins and sportscards:

 

Who is buying these books, and for what purpose.

 

I know for a definite fact that the comic collecting community hasn't ballooned in a few short years (actually, I'd say that the collector market has shrunk) and that this segment is totally incapable of sustaining current CGC prices.

 

The Johnny-come-lately, speculator buyer is what drove CGC prices so high, and the consistent loss of this mad money is what is causing the current downturn. That's also why Keys are maintaining or even increasing in value, as the specs that remain see this as the last bastion for comic investment.

 

Once prices flatten on those, the investment/speculation on CGC comics will come to a fiery end, with only the actual collectors remaining to support the market (again, as in graded coins and cards) and when that day comes, woe is he who holds a stack of 10X Guide CGC Silver, Bronze or Modern comics.

 

One universal truth of speculation is that these buyers want a return, and once a market cools off, these same buyers cut out and leave the ship to sink on its own. All the smart money has long since taken their profits and run, and the dumb money is slowly catching on. If sellers weren't actively hoarding their CGC comics (and waiting for a market recovery), we would have seen a melt-down by now.

 

The only two areas I see coming out unscathed are Golden Age, and Raw comics that people are paying standard Guide percentages on.

[The_Man_Of_Steel]

Hey Cloberin this is not directed to you specifically, I'm just throwing a bone out to chew on In my opinion, something that is being overlooked in general throughout this thread is this: What percentage of ALL comic books grade 9.6 or higher? Let me say it another way: What percentage of ALL CGC graded books are 9.6 or higher? Just in case you didn't take it one step further: Out of the ENTIRE comic book market, what percentage are CGC 9.6 or higher graded books ? Golden Age books that grade 9.6 or higher are EXTREMLY RARE. I would even go so far as to say that 9.6 or higher grade is VERY RARE for Silver Age books. In fact, I would say that 9.6 or higher grade for Bronze Age books is NOT AT ALL common. There are certain Modern Age books that are probably fairly common in 9.6 or higher, but I would say that there are more books that grade from 7.0-9.0 by far. One of the problems that most of us face that purchased raw book on eBay is that people tend to overgrade their books. I think AndrewKnight said it best when he something like you have to purchase books listed as NM to get a VF. While that may NOT be the case all the time, it certainly happens very frequently.

[clobberintime]

I think you are right 30 year old books in 9.6 are pretty hard to come by. The point is that pre-cgc, let's say you tried to sell your 9.6 avengers 108 to someone for $150 with a guide price of $20. Can you imagine the responses by potential buyers. You would be labled a certified nut. Let's say 8 months ago that cgc 9.6 Avengers 108 was going for $150 but a few more in that grade have surfaced, the economy is down , whatever but it is selling at $100. Is that a crash? i bet some people on here think so!

[comicinvestor-migration]

But MoS, as many on here readily admit, you can sometimes send your opinion of a VF and get a CGC 9.2-9.4 back in the mail.

[comicinvestor-migration]

Let's say 8 months ago that cgc 9.6 Avengers 108 was going for $150 but a few more in that grade have surfaced, the economy is down , whatever but it is selling at $100. Is that a crash? i bet some people on here think so!

 

So let's look at CGC comics from the buyer's perspective:

 

Comic sells for $150 8 months ago. Someone out there bought that comic and if they ever try and sell it, they're in for a rude surprise. Comic now sells for $100, which shouldn't get too many specs excited about the prospect of buying for a profit, since it's already lost a nice percentage in 8 months.

 

You seem to be looking at the seller's angle, taking cheapo books they bought in 1972 out of their longbox, CGC'ing them, and selling the books for Guide multiples. That's not what we're talking about here, as these "old collectors" are not the ones paying Guide multiples for the graded commodity and do not set the CGC price.

[fantastic_four]

But MoS, as many on here readily admit, you can sometimes send your opinion of a VF and get a CGC 9.2-9.4 back in the mail.

I'm still waiting for those people who "readily admit" this "fact" to post evidence of claims of overgrading or undergrading! They seem greatly exaggerated to me; I've yet to see CGC be more than a half-grade off even when you just judge the book by its cover. CGC being off more than 1/4 of a grade isn't widespread in my experience.

[The_Man_Of_Steel]

But CI, it costs more money to have a book re-submitted, and there are certainly no guarentees, it's a risky proposition, if the grade was borderline the first time, it could come back lower, unless as you put it, your one of the big dealers and have information that others don't. Also, it might be difficult to get a NM 9.2, out of a book that you would grade a VF 8.5, but hey, if money is not an object, and your already willing to pay multiples of guide (doesn't apply to you CI, so take a chill pill) it shouldn't matter huh? Oh and here is another bone to chew on: What percentage of books that are resubmitted to CGC are returned with a better grade?

 

[The_Man_Of_Steel]

James, I was referring to RAW books NOT CGC books. I thought I even mentioned raw, but I could be wrong (wouldn't be the first time in my life ).

[comicinvestor-migration]

I'm still waiting for those people who "readily admit" this "fact" to post evidence of claims of overgrading or undergrading!

 

I'm one of them, and I know many high-grade dealers in the 1980's/90's who deducted for printing defects, date stamps, etc. For many of their VF to VF/NM books (which are essentially NM/NM+ with printing defects/dates/writing) CGC sends back a 9.4/9.6 or higher.

 

It all depends on how strictly you grade and how these intersect with CGC's rules. Personally speaking, I couldn't sell a badly printed book with a scrawled date, and call it a NM, no matter how well it's preserved.

[murph0]

I must agree that I don't like the idea of 9.4's with date stamps or writing..and would've probably downgraded the book..but I don't know that I'd go as far to say VF's attaining CGC 9.4's

 

Brian

[scottish]

Also, it might be difficult to get a NM 9.2, out of a book that you would grade a VF 8.5, but hey, if money is not an object, and your already willing to pay multiples of guide (doesn't apply to you CI, so take a chill pill) it shouldn't matter huh?

 

Not sure if you were meaning to direct this to me MoS as I did comment that money isn't the bottom line...if not then my bad.

 

If so - Multiples of guide doesn't matter if you're not in the comic hobby to make a profit. If I could financially afford to buy anything I wanted - I wouldn't need to buy any more comics. Except new ones of course. I wouldn't give a whit what they cost and if they were worth nada in 2 years, who cares? I went into the situation knowing I was buying at multiples of guide so I would have been prepared (and not suprised) by the loss IF it ever occurred.

[comicinvestor-migration]

These are select instances, and all depends on who you bought the books from and when. Back in the 70's and 80's, many anal dealers sold strict NM comics (like Keith C.) and they were beauties, and even their VF+ comics (with the above-noted printing/writing defects) are now easy CGC 9.2-9.4 books.

 

This does not denote over or under-grading, but just a difference of opinion on how serious printing flaws and date stamps/writing affect your own grading.

 

For example, I have some early Defenders I bought in the early 80's as VF+ and the only defect on the book is a rather large white border on the front cover. I used to buy a lot of comics off this guy and he was known for strict grading and taking the overall comic into consideration when making his grade determination.

 

Without these defects, I do admit that it's pretty hard to make a VF into a CGC NM.

[Guest]

What percentage of ALL comic books grade 9.6 or higher? Let me say it another way: What percentage of ALL CGC graded books are 9.6 or higher? Just in case you didn't take it one step further: Out of the ENTIRE comic book market, what percentage are CGC 9.6 or higher graded books ? Golden Age books that grade 9.6 or higher are EXTREMLY RARE. I would even go so far as to say that 9.6 or higher grade is VERY RARE for Silver Age books. In fact, I would say that 9.6 or higher grade for Bronze Age books is NOT AT ALL common.

 

I totally agree, MOS. I, too, would say Bronze books in 9.6 are not at all common. When you consider the minor wear required to drop a book to 9.2 or lower (creased by bundling twine, damaged in spinner rack, careless owner, spine creases, small corner bends, subscription creases, scuffing, handling in dealer bins, unbagged bulk dealer overstock etc), a 9.6 Bronze is a nice book, and not as common as many think. If prices drop on these, I welcome it as a collector.

 

I think you are right 30 year old books in 9.6 are pretty hard to come by. The point is that pre-cgc, let's say you tried to sell your 9.6 avengers 108 to someone for $150 with a guide price of $20. Can you imagine the responses by potential buyers. You would be labled a certified nut.

 

Damn straight, clobberin! So, many of these books stayed unoffered, as the owners neither wanted to be called a nut, nor wanted to sell pristine run books 20+ yrs old for 50-80% guide (or even guide). CGC has chased some of these books from hiding, as the owners can now realize value on well-stored books.

 

 

[fantastic_four]

Why not bring this up at the yearly Overstreet meeting? The things you complain about have never been widely accepted. I'm with you in not liking the eye appeal factors you rail on, but they've never been a part of Overstreet's grading. Until they're a part of the general consensus on grading, these complaints of overgrading by CGC sound like radical fringe complaining. Which is exactly what it is, until the complainers work to become a part of the process to contribute to the grading standard.

[clobberintime]

Good - not what I am talking about either. you could buy that same avengers 108 raw at a con for about $25 right now - like I did at Megacon back in March send it in and perhaps get a 9.4 or better. I know several people who do this kind of thing - ever here of greggy? Not even Metropolis right now tries to sell books they grade at 9.4 and above for cgc multiples. They are priced above guide but not at any sort of multiples. So not getting 10x guide on a cgc 9.6 is a crash - 4x guide is no good ? people aren't making money on those deals?

[The_Man_Of_Steel]

Not sure if you were meaning to direct this to me MoS as I did comment that money isn't the bottom line...if not then my bad.

 

I'm innocent, I didn't even have you in mind when I said that

 

If so - Multiples of guide doesn't matter if you're not in the comic hobby to make a profit.

 

Multiple of guide does matter to me, and I'm not in the hobby to make a profit, but I do want the best price. Even if I had tons of money to blow, I would want to try and get the best price, a good number of people that have tons of money didn't get to that financial position by throwing money away.

 

If I could financially afford to buy anything I wanted - I wouldn't need to buy any more comics. Except new ones of course. I wouldn't give a whit what they cost and if they were worth nada in 2 years, who cares? I went into the situation knowing I was buying at multiples of guide so I would have been prepared (and not suprised) by the loss IF it ever occurred.

 

! many "IF's" have occurred.