Money Is No Object!!

[delekkerste]

Seems like a lot of books are surging to new highs as the economy and consumer confidence have been rebounding (here's a few examples from the past day below). There also seems to be a trend of some of the old guard selling off their books (BlazingBob and HooDeeDoo being two recent examples, but certainly not the only ones) while many of the people paying top $$$ are unknowns, often with relatively low eBay auction feedback (sure, there are exceptions, but this tells me in many instances that there are a lot of newbies and specs trying to jump on the CGC gravy train). I'd have to say this doesn't bode well for the long-run, though I don't see any sign of an imminent reversal of fortune.

 

X-Men #101 CGC 9.6 auction result

 

Daredevil #168 CGC 9.6 auction result

 

ASM #121 CGC 9.6 auction result

 

Gene

[DiceX]

but this tells me in many instances that there are a lot of newbies and specs trying to jump on the CGC gravy train)..

 

Or it could be well known collectors with shill accounts that don't want anyone to know what they are buying.

[blowout]

Or it could also be due to the fact that there is just not the quantity of high quality books being listed that there once was, and the ones that do come up are fetching a premium.

 

Impatience is a dangerous thing...

[joe_collector]

As you know Del, you can tell a lot about a market by looking at who's buying and who's selling.

[Aman619]

but Bob Storms publicly stated that he was buying a house when he sold the FFS...not averting a crash.

[COI]

but Bob Storms publicly stated that he was buying a house when he sold the FFS...not averting a crash.

 

Actions speak louder than words. Why would this man, who is very in-tune with this hobby, pick this particular time to sell? From what I've heard, people have been trying to buy his FF's for a while, so why now? He's a dealer, so if by some chance he sees a "crash" or "correction" on the horizon, do you think he's going to come out and say it? That wouldn't be good for business. Regardless of his reasons, or what he claims are his reasons, on the topic of "investing" you have to tale a dealer's opinions with a grain of salt.

 

http://www.tias.com/stores/metropolis/press.html

 

http://www.pgcmint.com/ArticleContent2.php?articleID=39

[delekkerste]

but Bob Storms publicly stated that he was buying a house when he sold the FFS...not averting a crash.

 

Well, hypothetically speaking, if you were a dealer who did think the market was overheating and ripe for reversal (again, I personally don't see any sign that a decline is imminent), would you state that publicly?

 

Also hypothetically speaking, if Bob thought his FFs were going to appreciate wildly from current levels, might he not consider postponing his house purchase until prices surged higher or taking on some extra loans to avoid selling out so "cheaply"?

 

I don't want to turn this into the "Bob Storms' Motivation for Selling His FFs Is *The* Barometer of the Market" thread, because I also know of a decent number of other well-known collectors who are either in the process of selling off healthy chunks of their collections or seriously considering doing so (most of them are doing so discreetly). Maybe they all just want to buy houses...or maybe they think it's a good time to be selling books at very high prices to specs, dedicated fanboys and newbies (recent posts on this Board by certain new members should leave no one doubting that newbies are entering this frenzied market with no clue about what they're doing...ASM #300 CGC 9.8 Chromium editions, anyone?)

 

Gene

[Aman619]

I sense a deja vu all over again scenario developing Gene.....

so i'll cease from provoking this discussion further...

[COI]

Is there an echo in here?

 

Actually, you said it much better than I did.

[rob_react]

And maybe Bob is just learning a lesson every crack dealer takes to heart, "don't mess around with the product."

 

Reading these particular tea leaves- three newbies buying bronze age books and two "old timers" selling silver age; isn't really much in the way of sophisticated market prognostication. Or am I missing something (beyond the required pessimism?) With single pieces of evidence like this both sides of this endless argument can create any picture they like as long as they've got the required creativity. Of course, if that's what people want- and sometimes I suspect it is; then I think you're all onto something.

 

 

[delekkerste]

Reading these particular tea leaves- three newbies buying bronze age books and two "old timers" selling silver age; isn't really much in the way of sophisticated market prognostication. Or am I missing something (beyond the required pessimism?)

 

Who said anything about sophisticated market prognostication? I'm just pointing out some curious facts...if people want to take them literally and dismiss them as the aberrant behavior of a few individuals, be my guest. If you're like Yogi and a little smarter than your average bear and can read between the lines, that's fine by me as well.

 

I could expand the list of prominent sellers greatly beyond these two "old timers", but I don't think any of these people would be too happy if I "outed" them (which is why I only named the two who have publicly gone on record). As for the newbies and specs, their ranks are growing as you can see from eBay, the Boards, through the grapevine, etc. People can either choose to acknowledge these facts or be in denial of them...can't say that it really makes any difference to me.

 

Gene

[BachelorOfComix]

That's it. I've read enough. I'm cashing out.

[COI]

And maybe Bob is just learning a lesson every crack dealer takes to heart, "don't mess around with the product."

 

Reading these particular tea leaves- three newbies buying bronze age books and two "old timers" selling silver age; isn't really much in the way of sophisticated market prognostication. Or am I missing something (beyond the required pessimism?) With single pieces of evidence like this both sides of this endless argument can create any picture they like as long as they've got the required creativity. Of course, if that's what people want- and sometimes I suspect it is; then I think you're all onto something.

 

 

"Don't get high off your own supply". Since he's been in this business for many years, and probalby reconciled his personal collecting with his business practice a long time ago, isn't it much more realistic to think that he saw an opportunity in the current market, where FF's are starting to spike? I recall he mentioned something about not having many ASM's left in his collection because he sold during the movie hype, so he isn't "just learning" not to "get high off his own supply".

 

You're right about the fact that 2 collectors selling their books, and a few anomolies on Ebay are not necessarily conclusive enough to make a firm statement about the future state of the hobby. But they may be indicators, and deserve some acknoledgement. And what you might see as a "required pessimism" I see as a realistic outcome. I'm a realist, and I don't think it's pessimistic to be honest about my feelings towards the future of the market, particularly with myself. Those who see all this "correction" and "crash" talk as negativity may do so because they are heavily invested in the hobby financially, emotionally, or both. For me it isn't negative, it's something I look foreward to so that I can go on a buying spree. I'm not waiting for a "crash", but I am waiting for more realistic price gaps in the high grade arena, among other things.

 

 

[Illiterati-migration]

That's it. I've read enough. I'm cashing out.

 

Got any LOSH #300 or GL #195?

 

Crisis books?

[BachelorOfComix]

Got any LOSH #300 or GL #195?

 

Crisis books?

Yeah but the're CGC slabbed so you don't want 'em.

[Illiterati-migration]

Got any LOSH #300 or GL #195?

 

Crisis books?

Yeah but the're CGC slabbed so you don't want 'em.

 

I take them all. My comic collection is like a refuge for these forlorn, forgotten, unfortunate books. They have large, expansive boxes, they are fed only the finest copies of lesser books, and they are allowed out four times a day for exercise and fresh air.

[BachelorOfComix]

I take them all. My comic collection is like a refuge for these forlorn, forgotten, unfortunate books. They have large, expansive boxes, they are fed only the finest copies of lesser books, and they are allowed out four times a day for exercise and fresh air.

Hmmmmm..........perhaps I SHOULD send them out to pasture in your retirement home for forlorn comics.

[Illiterati-migration]

I take them all. My comic collection is like a refuge for these forlorn, forgotten, unfortunate books. They have large, expansive boxes, they are fed only the finest copies of lesser books, and they are allowed out four times a day for exercise and fresh air.

Hmmmmm..........perhaps I SHOULD send them out to pasture in your retirement home for forlorn comics.

 

They would be happy here among their own kind. The population has swollen to over 10,000,000,000 copies of LOSH 300 alone!

[shadroch]

To play the devils advocate for a moment-if you are going to doubt a dealers persons stated reasons for selling,can't you just as easily assign positive motives as well.Perhaps they have uncovered a new trove of even better books than the ones they are selling.Wouldn't it be foolish to display their new 10.5 FFs before they unload their miserable 9.8s and such. Could it be a case of market timing-sell high and buy low later? Could it be that with mortgage rates near bottom,that seems like a better investment? Could the Patriot anti-money laundering act be responsible?Or is it simply a changing of the guard.Everyone bemoans the lack of new collectors,but as soon as some new blood arrives,they are decried as speculators.At the Big Apple Con,there were very few dealers that were active 20 years ago.Twenty years from now.how many of us will still be posting on this forum,yet CGC will most likely still exist. Take an Overstreet from 1980. Few of the advertisers from it are still in the game,yet there are around the same number of advertisers.When Geppi,Metropolis,Chuckie and Lone Star all start having going out of business sales,then there will be cause for concern; IMHO

[drbanner]

Hmmm...so basically your saying that recent record prices being paid for common Bronze Age books coupled with new collectors entering the hobby to buy them doesn't bode well for the long-term health of our hobby? I'll have to think about that...