Money Is No Object!!

[dam60]

While not comic books, here are some examples of character related memorabilia that have recently sold:

 

http://scoop.diamondgalleries.com/scoop_article.asp?ai=4390&si=123

 

http://scoop.diamondgalleries.com/scoop_article.asp?ai=4383&si=121

 

http://scoop.diamondgalleries.com/scoop_article.asp?ai=4384&si=121

 

http://scoop.diamondgalleries.com/scoop_article.asp?ai=4385&si=121

 

http://scoop.diamondgalleries.com/scoop_article.asp?ai=4386&si=121

 

http://scoop.diamondgalleries.com/scoop_article.asp?ai=4387&si=121

 

 

[Marvelous]

I will stick to comics as well. I can't wait for the crash so I can get my hands on some cheap comics. I am practically drooling here.

 

This is part of the problem... I think people completely, completely misunderstand the concept behind the crash and what it really is all about. It won't be that FF# 25 will start selling for 25 cents. However, if you paid $3500 for 9.4, you might be surprised when it only sells for $2500. That, in my mind, is a crash, correction whatever. To assume it means cheap comics for the silver and bronze is a bitr of a misunderstanding, and I don't think that's the manner in which it's being discussed.

 

The only corrections I see of back issue comics are brought about by movie hype. Prior to the release of a movie speculators and investors drive up the price of the characters 1st appearance in comic. After movie hype dies down prices drop down 15-25%. There is no surprise there.

[joe_collector]

A person will have to do more than invest in DVDs and video games. They will have to invest in the equipment that allows you to play it, because like the record player and 8-track tape player they will be almost impossible to find.

 

You remind me of that villain from the Italian Job:

 

No Imagination.

 

Do me a favor and take out your latest CGC purchase and turn to Page 22? Oh, how about you read the comic from front to back? Tell us who wrote letters that month?

 

Enjoying a piece of your youth has far more to do with memories and fondness than actually using the physical product. And like CGC, if you break the slab/seal and read/play it then it's likely to be downgraded.

 

Just like we have TPBs and reprints to enjoy the passion of our youth, so too do (and will) video game fans and collectors have PC emulators, classic re-issues, etc. to enjoy a non-collectible edition.

[joe_collector]

This is part of the problem... I think people completely, completely misunderstand the concept behind the crash and what it really is all about. It won't be that FF# 25 will start selling for 25 cents. However, if you paid $3500 for 9.4, you might be surprised when it only sells for $2500.

 

That's exactly it, and there is another angle that "gimme the cheap comics" don't comprehend.

 

Let's say that FF 25 sold at $3500 sells for $3000, then $2900, then $2750, and then $2500... and then.... ?

 

When are you going to jump in and "get a steal"? How are you sure the bottom will have dropped out and you won't lose even more cash? Exactly where would you buy?

 

Trust me, when the reaper comes, all the Johnny Come Lately's will find much better places to stash their money, as declining values have never been an impetus to buy, and are usually a signal to flee.

[fantastic_four]

No one can possibly believe this, as there have been numerous studies and works on collectibles

 

Can you name a few for us? I'm interested in some disciplined research on this topic.

[Marvelous]

A person will have to do more than invest in DVDs and video games. They will have to invest in the equipment that allows you to play it, because like the record player and 8-track tape player they will be almost impossible to find.

 

You remind me of that villain from the Italian Job:

 

No Imagination.

 

Do me a favor and take out your latest CGC purchase and turn to Page 22? Oh, how about you read the comic from front to back? Tell us who wrote letters that month?

 

Enjoying a piece of your youth has far more to do with memories and fondness than actually using the physical product. And like CGC, if you break the slab/seal and read/play it then it's likely to be downgraded.

 

Just like we have TPBs and reprints to enjoy the passion of our youth, so too do (and will) video game fans and collectors have PC emulators, classic re-issues, etc. to enjoy a non-collectible edition.

 

You just made my point for me JC. People won't be buying original DVDs and video games, but may buy PC emulators or whatever the new technology is at the time. What the hell good is a 20 year old DVD or video game when the technology is obsolete? You can't compare comics to DVDs and video games. Apples and Oranges. 20 years from now you will still be able to read a comic unless you are illiterate.

[Foolkiller]

The only corrections are movie hype?

 

What about the fact GS X-Men #1s have corrected since 2001-2? How about the fact we're seeing more and more X-Men 94s high grades into the market?

 

Let's use Cap 100 for example. A book that used to go for roughly $8-900 in 9.4, now goes for $700. CGC NM- 9.2s go for the $450-475 range now. That's down as well.

 

Anyway, there are a lot of books starting to correct now in grades lower than 9.4... not just the movie hype books.

 

[joe_collector]

[ I've used the analogy of Westerns before, but it so relevant, it's scary. Twenty-forty years ago, it was almost unimaginable for collectors of Western memorabilia that there would so little interest in collectibles related to Western screen, radio, and TV stars. They thought they were ingrained into American culture, had been a source of interest for over 100 years, and would always be a mainstay in the collectibles field.

 

The Western collectibles market is a great example of what will happen with comics, and do you know why it occured?

 

Kids stopped emulating and worshipping the Western star, Western comic sales dropped off the map, and basically the youth of America shunned "those old fogeys collecting Western [!@#%^&^]", much like happens ever few generations.

 

You know how to kill a hobby?

 

Fill it full of speculators, fogeys and greybeards, thereby assuring it will NEVER be viewed as youth culture-oriented.

[fantastic_four]

I've used the analogy of Westerns before, but it so relevant, it's scary. Twenty-forty years ago, it was almost unimaginable for collectors of Western memorabilia that there would so little interest in collectibles related to Western screen, radio, and TV stars. They thought they were ingrained into American culture, had been a source of interest for over 100 years, and would always be a mainstay in the collectibles field. Now, all but the rarest of Western collectibles pursued by a small hard-core group are at bargain prices. Find me anyone born after 1965 who gives a rat's-a** about westerns. Ask anyone under the age of 40 who Tom Mix or Bobby Benson and you'll get a shrug of the shoulders. I'm so sure that comics will parallel this trend , that I'm only looking for bargains right now and absolutely refuse to pay over guide for anything, no matter how high the grade.

 

EXTREMELY interesting comparison!

[Marvelous]

The only corrections are movie hype?

 

What about the fact GS X-Men #1s have corrected since 2001-2? How about the fact we're seeing more and more X-Men 94s high grades into the market?

 

Let's use Cap 100 for example. A book that used to go for roughly $8-900 in 9.4, now goes for $700. CGC NM- 9.2s go for the $450-475 range now. That's down as well.

 

Anyway, there are a lot of books starting to correct now in grades lower than 9.4... not just the movie hype books.

 

Ok, my bad, using the word "only" was a mistake on my part. As more high grade CGCs of a particular issue come into existance that once unique and rare 9.6 X-men #94 will drop from its rediculous price down to more reasonable levels. Just another example of speculators and investors causing a correction based on "hype." To me that is perfectly normal and should be no cause for pending doom throughout the comic back issue market.

[joe_collector]

Can you name a few for us? I'm interested in some disciplined research on this topic.

 

I read some in University, some dealing with collectibles, demographics and other trends. Not comics per se, but some were pop culture-related.

 

I'm not sure these were even entire books, but more like sections/reports in other books. I do remember one on the "colored glass" phenomenon that was quite interesting. There were some on Americana, Civil War, Art, entertainers/movie stars, etc., but as comics weren't a major speculator activity, it wasn't really covered.

 

To boil it down: times change, attiudes change, and if the next generation isn't embracing the ideals of the current environment, then say bye bye.

[joe_collector]

You just made my point for me JC. People won't be buying original DVDs and video games, but may buy PC emulators or whatever the new technology is at the time. What the hell good is a 20 year old DVD or video game when the technology is obsolete?

 

Like I said, No Imagination.

[Foolkiller]

Isn't that semantics? It's exactly what Gene and JC have been saying all along. The prices being paid right now, for whatever reason, speculators, movie hype whatever, is inflating the value of the book, and then it "corrects" to its proper value is in my mind the essence of the crash.

 

And when you have a slew of people who have invested their money unwisely... what happens? people withdraw from the hobby and it creates a large problem. As already noted, it's happened in other hobbies. The sky is not falling, but I do there's ample reason for concern.

[FlyingDonut]

IMHO, It's a natural evolution that when this generation grows up, they will have money to burn and will take comics to dizzying new heights.

 

Are you serious about this?

 

Why would children who were weaned on super-hero DVDs, movies and video games, suddenly grow up and start paying through the nose for old comics?

 

It would seem to be obvious that they'd be picking up Mint first-edition copies of the video games and DVDs they loved as children, just like we have with comics.

 

Any other conclusion flies in the face of all known logic surrounding collectibles in general.

 

I'm with Gene and JC on this one. A couple of years ago, I was optimistic about the prospect of kids being drawn into the hobby through DVD's, cartoons, etc. At the time I was watching my friends' sons growing up and saw some signs that their interest was transitioning to the actual comics. Guess what? Never panned out, despite their having been exposed to back issues, tpb's and other collections. As far as they're concerned, Spiderman, Bats, the JLA, etc, are all video characters. Will there always be some interest in the major characters' comic appearances by a small group of collectors who can make this leap? Sure. Will there ever be a whole generation of collectors who are motivated by the incredibly fond memories of reading comics in their childhood? No way. I've used the analogy of Westerns before, but it so relevant, it's scary. Twenty-forty years ago, it was almost unimaginable for collectors of Western memorabilia that there would so little interest in collectibles related to Western screen, radio, and TV stars. They thought they were ingrained into American culture, had been a source of interest for over 100 years, and would always be a mainstay in the collectibles field. Now, all but the rarest of Western collectibles pursued by a small hard-core group are at bargain prices. Find me anyone born after 1965 who gives a rat's-a** about westerns. Ask anyone under the age of 40 who Tom Mix or Bobby Benson and you'll get a shrug of the shoulders. I'm so sure that comics will parallel this trend , that I'm only looking for bargains right now and absolutely refuse to pay over guide for anything, no matter how high the grade. Unless, of course, it's something so important to me that I don't care how much it costs and am ready to lose every cent I spend on it. That's going to be my approach for the next five years or so, when I'm convinced there will be so much new HG material on the market from collectors aging out of the hobby, that prices will dive.

 

I think the comic collecting market has always been small, even before DVDs and video games. When I was a young lad in the early 80s I only knew of a few guys in my school that actively read and collected comic books. In my class of 50 only one of my friends collected comics. So the fact that no one sees uddles of new youngsters in their comic book stores doesn't concern me too much. I really don't think you can compare Tom Mix to Spider-man or Superman. The reason is that Spider-man and Superman have spanned 40-60+ years over many generations and are still going strong.

 

At the risk of agreeing with my disagreeable Canadian friend, anybody who believes what you've said above is either 1) under 25 or 2) ignorant of history.

 

The number of comic collectors is significantly smaller than it was in the late 1970s and early 1980s, and, as less and less readers enter the hobby, the number will continue to fall. This may be purely anectodal, but in the DC area there used to be a thriving convention market supporting three or four monthly conventions (does anybody else remember Greedy Gail?). Now its down to one a month.

 

You may not want to compare Tom Mix to Spider-Man, and I agree, it might be a stretch. A better example is Tarzan. How many people are actively buying Tarzan comics today? I'll bet its 90% less of the number of buyers for Tarzan 30 years ago. How about Captain Marvel? Whiz and Captain Marvel sold twice as many copies per month in the 40s as Superman, and now you can't give Fawcetts away.

 

I don't think the apocalyptic predictions of Gene and JC are correct, but nor do I believe the continued price rise is going to continue. I've said before, and I still believe it, the "crash" already occured - look at prices in the summer of 2002 versus now on comics that meet all four of these criteria: post-1966, 9.6 or under, "relatively" common, relatively non-key. Prices on these books have cratered, and this cratering has taken place ACROSS the board, on both slabbed and unslabbed books. If you don't believe this, you're deluding yourself.

[Marvelous]

Can you name a few for us? I'm interested in some disciplined research on this topic.

 

I read some in University, some dealing with collectibles, demographics and other trends. Not comics per se, but some were pop culture-related.

 

I'm not sure these were even entire books, but more like sections/reports in other books. I do remember one on the "colored glass" phenomenon that was quite interesting. There were some on Americana, Civil War, Art, entertainers/movie stars, etc., but as comics weren't a major speculator activity, it wasn't really covered.

 

To boil it down: times change, attiudes change, and if the next generation isn't embracing the ideals of the current environment, then say bye bye.

 

Let not your hearts be troubled. Your HG gold, silver, and bronze comics aren't going to plummet in value any time soon. The time to start worrying will be after Marvel and DC go out of business. Who wants to predict when that will happen while they are making high budget movies based on their comic book characters for as far as the eye can see.

[fantastic_four]

Do me a favor and take out your latest CGC purchase and turn to Page 22? Oh, how about you read the comic from front to back? Tell us who wrote letters that month?

 

Enjoying a piece of your youth has far more to do with memories and fondness than actually using the physical product. And like CGC, if you break the slab/seal and read/play it then it's likely to be downgraded.

 

Do you think that the collectibility of video games is directly comparable to the collectibility of comic books? I figure you're right that they will be collectible to some people, but the size of that market seems like it has less potential than comics for the following reasons:

 

• The artwork on the outside of the box is almost always an afterthought and not directly created by the video game creators themselves. That art is usually created by marketing-types, not artists...the aesthetic appeal of the box as a work of art seems comparatively low as compared to comics.
• The cartridge/disc/box isn't the item being bought--it's the little corner of cyberspace that's being purchased which is coveted. This is fundamentally different than comics where the medium is directly related to the message; with video games, the message is in an entirely separate conceptual space than the medium is (the Marshall McLuhan "Understanding Media" reference here is intentional).
• Video games being distributed by cartridge/disc will probably go away even quicker than comics will due to the Internet. The costs associated with online distribution are far less than the costs associated with doing credit to superhero powers in a narrative medium besides comics on the printed page.

While video games boxes look like a viable market to me for a while longer, the potential of it seems much less than comics. I've been playing video games for a lot longer than I've been collecting comics, and it's what got me into computer programming as a career...but the game box market doesn't make much sense to me.

[Marvelous]

You just made my point for me JC. People won't be buying original DVDs and video games, but may buy PC emulators or whatever the new technology is at the time. What the hell good is a 20 year old DVD or video game when the technology is obsolete?

 

Like I said, No Imagination.

 

I am sorry to hear you have that problem. Please do go on dreaming of the pending crash if that is what keeps you happy.

[fantastic_four]

Kids stopped emulating and worshipping the Western star, Western comic sales dropped off the map, and basically the youth of America shunned "those old fogeys collecting Western [!@#%^&^]", much like happens ever few generations.

 

Who did they begin to emulate and worship instead of Western stars? And who do they emulate today? I don't really know...I don't have kids and don't see many. What kinds of Halloween costumes are kids wearing these days?

[Marvelous]

Isn't that semantics? It's exactly what Gene and JC have been saying all along. The prices being paid right now, for whatever reason, speculators, movie hype whatever, is inflating the value of the book, and then it "corrects" to its proper value is in my mind the essence of the crash.

 

And when you have a slew of people who have invested their money unwisely... what happens? people withdraw from the hobby and it creates a large problem. As already noted, it's happened in other hobbies. The sky is not falling, but I do there's ample reason for concern.

 

I don't see the need for concern because I don't see a big crash. Corrections on over "hyped" comics due to movies CGC census is not a cause for alarm in my opinion. That is normal and is nothing to worry about. Now if you are a speculator you might be crying if you bought that once unique 9.8 at a crazy price when the census was young and now there are 5 more copies.

[Rip]

How many people are actively buying Tarzan comics today?

They collect pulps. and have very deep pockets.

All Story 1912 Oct. is one of the most expensive pulps.