Do people have any limits?

[COI]

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&category=32739&item=2228064705

 

Yeesh!

 

Yeah, yeah, I know it's one of the tougher late 60's ASM's, but this is just too much for a 9.4. And the scarcity of this book is overrated. There are a number of other late S.A ASM's that show up just as infrequently. I don't want to name them, for fear that they end up selling on Ebay for 600X guide, due to the percieved scarcity

 

I'm really starting to get aggrivated with the current market. It wouldn't bother me so much, since I just choose not to buy much until things cool, except for 2 things;

 

Freak sales like this are forever documented on GPA Analysis. Someone trying to sell these books in the future are going to look at these high prices, and try and get them for themselves. When the market inevitably cools, then we start seeing high reserves that are never met.

 

And as an extention of the above, it would be one thing if we knew that these books were going to be locked in collections. But unfortunetly, the same books surface over and over, and when you have these freak sales that lead to high price tags, you get sellers listing the books over and over with a high opening bid, and/or high reserve, and people just get sick of seeing the issue. The less a book is seen, the more desirable it is, regardless of how tough or not it actually is. When someone stubbornly lists the same book over and over, trying to flip(or even break even) with no success, they're flooding the market for that issue in a psychological respect, and killing the market for it.

 

What a frustrating time this is for those of us who aren't willing to burn money. Can someone shed some insight as to why everyone suddenly has the ballz to throw around this kind of cash? Last I checked the American economy was not so good, and your dollar is still down. Am I missing something, or did a bunch of rich kids just get access to their trust funds?

 

 

 

[Murph]

People will pay what they want for things. Why worry over it? If I want to pay 300,000 for a Ferrari.. someone out there is going to think "well, he could just get a Civic for 20k". That ideal is universal and goes into just about any and all mediums. If someone wants to pay that for a book, let them. I thought I'd toss in a snipe at 500 dollars to get the book, but I didn't.. somebody wanted it more, more power to them.

 

Brian

[Mushroom]

Andrew....to be honest I am on your side when it comes to this issue, I also think that the prices are going bezerk, but this is one tough book. I bought my copy for $550 in June of 02....I remember Comgeek telling me that it was an extremely tough get in 9.4/9.6.

 

Most board members here would have said I was crazy....but if you look at the census there are still no 9.8's only 3 9.6's and 9 9.4's. When I bought the book there were 8 9.4's. One 9.4 in almost 2 years! This is ASM we are talking about. These books do not come up that often.

 

I also own about 6 raw copies of which only one would grade at 9.0.

 

I am less concerned about this book than those that are much more plentiful that are dragging in even higher prices.

 

 

[COI]

People will pay what they want for things. Why worry over it?

 

I'm not "worried" but I'm annoyed for the reasons I stated above. You yourself speak out about over-pricing quite a bit, and seem to be somewhat annoyed at times when Spideys you need are priced too high. Well, auctions like this are one of the root causes of inflated stickers. To a lot of people, this lavish auction means that this is now a $700+ dollar book, and any seller/dealer who has one is going to price it accordingly, ingnoring the fact that this book has also sold for $250 in one instance. I don't mind paying FMV, or even a little above it for books that I need, but there's a limit. This is only one of the books I was watching today that ended really high. I actually had 3 other snipes today set up with what I thought was an ample bid, but by the last hour of all the auctions, the minimum bid had exceeded my snipes, which were all at the high end of "FMV". Again, I'm not a "bargain hunter" and I don't expect to get what I want on the cheap, but the more extravagent these prices get in the current bubble, the more it's going to affect future pricing. And there are going to be a lot of books floating around as permanent museum pieces for sellers and dealers.

 

If I want to pay 300,000 for a Ferrari.. someone out there is going to think "well, he could just get a Civic for 20k".

 

This analogy has nothing to do with what I'm talking about. A Civic is not the same as a Ferrari and is not comparable. One is designed as an everyday vehicle for the masses to get you from point A to point B, and the other is designed as a toy for the rich. I'm talking about the same books selling for wildly fluctuating prices, and how they will affect the near future. In this case, I'm not calling any of the bidders stupid. I don't care about their motivations, or the fact that they're paying these huge prices. And I'm not speaking from an investment point of view either, just venting as a collector who wants to aquire books at sane prices, and as someone who dosen't see these kind of unhealthy fluctuations as a postive.

[Murph]

If someone thinks that based on one sale it's a 700 dollar book, then we'll see how the market responds. If noone will buy it at 700 dollars, then it'll sit and the price will come down or the seller will stop selling it.

In most cases one buyer won't make a market. If no more books show up, then at that point maybe so.. but only due to a lack of that book showing up. I don't think this is a 700 dollar book, but I do think there might be another 1-2 guys willing to pay 700 dollars for this book if it continues to be this tough to find. ASM completionists are just all over the place, and you have to have this book to complete the run. Personally, I'd pay at most 500 for this book. Is that crazy? Sure it probably is to someone, but I need the book to complete my run and am willing to pay a premium to do so.

On another note, if this book were to ever show up a bit more frequently on the census and eBay.. that 700 $ price will come shooting down REAL quick. However, as Mushroom said.. there's only be 1 new 9.4 to show up on the census in quite some time.

 

Brian

[COI]

$550 is around where I thought this book would end at, and IMO that's within the range of sanity.

 

As for the census #'s; They're low for an ASM, but there are a number of other ASM's that have very similar counts. #89 has the same # of 9.6's as #63, with nothing higher, and only 1 more 9.4. An CGC 9.4 #89 with WHITE pages, perfectly centered, ended today at just a little over $300. Using the same price logic that would justify this auction, the #89 should have gone for around $600.

 

I've got a lot of Raw ASm's as well, and I'm always on the lookout for nice copies of 39-100. #89 is a very tough find as well, and is very rarely offered. People underestimate how hard some of the 15 Cent ASM's are in grade, much more so than most of the issues from 1968 which is when #63 came out.

 

This #63 sale is skewed as far as I can see, and its difficulty in grade was hyped up, leading to this price. It is tough for an ASM, but there are a number of other issues that are in the same league of "scarcity" in grade. #63 just has a more notorious rep.

[COI]

I don't disagree with that. My post was just my way of venting, because there just happened to be a few books I wanted to go for that were all ending today, and all went way over typical FMV(in one case, almost double). The combination just frustrated the heck out of me. This discussion has become too much about this one book, which isn't what I intended. I just used it as an example of a problem that is growing(with a wide range of stuff, not just ASM) in the current market.

 

 

[clobberintime]

Many prices being paid for 9.4 and above books - and books in the 9.0 range that are perceived to be HTF - are ridiculous and can not be explained. I thought that Spidey price was high - but look at some of the FFs over the last few days. oneoldcat has had that FF 58 9.6 for sale on ebay almost a year and it never went over $500 - guess he ios glad he held out as it sold for over $700. And 121 and 123 bought by some nut who paid $700 for the pair. The guy who bought the Spidey is from the UK - I saw him bidding on lots of stuff in the Vault auction. But it is more than just overseas buyers taking advantage of the weak dollar. A lot of the buyers on ebay are lowfeedback so they are jumping on the bandwagon - they have heard about the high prices and "values" of cgc books and don't know better. Also there are a lot of flippers who are evidently still able to make money at this point. And it is frustrating. This won't last as nothing ever does but I am glad that I need very few Marvel books - it would be extremely expensive to complete runs right now. And it is hard to figure out pricing as the prices being paid don't make sense if you have been collecting awhile, you kind of get a feel for these things. Things definitely "feel" weird right now.

[delekkerste]

Can someone shed some insight as to why everyone suddenly has the ballz to throw around this kind of cash? Last I checked the American economy was not so good, and your dollar is still down.

 

Yes, but interest rates are rock-bottom and consumer debt and spending levels are SOARING. The savings rate in the country is practically non-existent at this time - I think last month that consumer spending outstripped income by a 3 to 1 margin. The Federal Reserve's prescription for reviving the economy during the slump of the past few years has been to encourage the already overleveraged American consumer to borrow and spend even more, while artificially inflating real estate prices, through multi-decade low interest rates. The result has been like throwing gasoline on a man set on fire.

 

Instead of using low interest rates to refinance their debt, it has encouraged consumers to borrow and spend more. Instead of allowing consumers to reliquefy themselves through lower mortgage payments, it has encouraged them to borrow and spend more for bigger houses (creating a housing bubble in many areas in the process), as well as cash out the equity in their homes to spend even further!! With interest rates as low as they are, however, I don't see this dynamic being sustainable, and I think spending will have to come down in the coming months/years while savings must rise.

 

I find myself still agreeing with CT - I don't think the present state of the comic market will last, and he is absolutely right that there are a lot of low-feedback newbies jumping on the bandwagon/gravy train. Believe that these big spenders are all well-heeled investors spending discretionary dollars to recapture their childhoods if you want, but statistically, they are more likely to be young, overleveraged spenders trying to rake in a few bucks on a "sure thing", "can't miss" opportunity.

 

Gene

[g-man]

I gave this book a shot knowing that it was a $600+ book. The last one on heritage (i think with ctowp) went for (I think) $700+. It's a great book. The price, well....not so great (unless you are the seller).

[kryptonitecomics]

On a side note to this discussion, I noticed the following stated by the seller:

 

If you fail to pay for a winning auction of which you are the winning bidder, I will leave punishing feedback on you along with emailing many others to beware of you.

 

 

Ok the punishing feedback is a little strong, but I can live with that, but contacting other seller via e-mail to warn them about you is against Ebay rules. It's no different then spamming someone correct???

[clobberintime]

Ahh - nothing like a little ebay feedback punishment! I wonder if he has a big skull on his shirt? I say let the punishment begin!

[goldust40]

Many prices being paid for 9.4 and above books - and books in the 9.0 range that are perceived to be HTF - are ridiculous and can not be explained. I thought that Spidey price was high - but look at some of the FFs over the last few days. oneoldcat has had that FF 58 9.6 for sale on ebay almost a year and it never went over $500 - guess he ios glad he held out as it sold for over $700. And 121 and 123 bought by some nut who paid $700 for the pair. The guy who bought the Spidey is from the UK - I saw him bidding on lots of stuff in the Vault auction. But it is more than just overseas buyers taking advantage of the weak dollar. A lot of the buyers on ebay are lowfeedback so they are jumping on the bandwagon - they have heard about the high prices and "values" of cgc books and don't know better. Also there are a lot of flippers who are evidently still able to make money at this point. And it is frustrating. This won't last as nothing ever does but I am glad that I need very few Marvel books - it would be extremely expensive to complete runs right now. And it is hard to figure out pricing as the prices being paid don't make sense if you have been collecting awhile, you kind of get a feel for these things. Things definitely "feel" weird right now.

 

I'd agree, as a long time collector/dealer, that instinctively things don't seem right at present. That book, three or four years ago would've sold raw for about $100 tops, maybe $120.

 

I was watching that ASM 63 auction - both the winner and the underbidder are from the U.K. If I tried to sell that book at that price at a London show (about £400 at today's rate) I doubt there'd be any takers - so I'm not sure the strong pound has anything to do with it. Frankly I can't figure out this "auction fever"- the underbidder is a dealer, so he'd have to sell it at a profit, having paid top market for it.

 

The effect of CGC/Ebay is extraordinary. Traditionally paying such high premiums for Silver Age HG in the U.K. was either unheard of or considered absurd (the FMV you mentioned would still have been OTT), even until recently - people simply weren't prepared to accept the higher prices that were being realized in the U.S. Things have changed very quickly, although admittedly there aren't that many Brits ready to compete......

[r100comics]

The effect of CGC/Ebay is extraordinary. Traditionally paying such high premiums for Silver Age HG in the U.K. was either unheard of or considered absurd (the FMV you mentioned would still have been OTT), even until recently - people simply weren't prepared to accept the higher prices that were being realized in the U.S. Things have changed very quickly, although admittedly there aren't that many Brits ready to compete......

 

Andy, I wouldn't judge the motley crew that turn up at the U.K. shows as any representation of the high end market in the U.K. There has always been a small clique of buyers willing to pay the highest prices for the very best books, and they will continue to do so.

 

Perhaps their participation in the Vault auctions has finally given them the confidence to brave the joys of Ebay ?

[goldust40]

I'm not saying that that Vault auction that just ended was pivotal, but you may have a point there. The reverse of my argument would be that CGC has shown how scarce even mid - Silver Age books can be in grade, and I'd say that a small portion of the U.K. market has woken up to that fact.

 

You're right, shows in the U.K. are not necessarily a good barometer (punters at marts generally are hunting for a bargain).

 

Still, those are crazy prices, even for an ebay bidding war. Nice turn of phrase - "brave the joys of ebay" - you've got to be brave (and solvent) to experience any (so-called) joy on it.

[r100comics]

Nice turn of phrase - "brave the joys of ebay" - you've got to be brave (and solvent) to experience any (so-called) joy on it.

 

Yeah, my tongue was pretty firmly in my cheek on that one !

 

I believe the current spate of crazy prices we are seeing are almost entirely due to movie hype, both F.F. and Spidey related. I expect things to settle on the Spidey's within hours of ASM 2 hitting the big screen.

[Murph]

And when they don't? Everyone has a tendency to blame high Spider-man prices on upcoming movies. Prices have always been high, it's a product of not just the movie but the popularity and the # of collectors. Once this movie ends, prices will remain and I'm sure people will attempt to attribute that to Spider-man 3.

 

Brian

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

Yeah, I don't think the current spike is due to movie hype, so much as it is an influx of cash and optimism.

[r100comics]

Movie hype is the difference between FMV, which may already be 5 times guide for a Spidey that's tough in 9.4, and 7 times guide in 9.4 which many people would regard as excessive.

 

Whether we like to admit it or not, movie hype does strange things to normally sensible buyers, and brings other buyers into the marketplace you will not overwise see.

[Calamerica]

I don't disagree with that. My post was just my way of venting, because there just happened to be a few books I wanted to go for that were all ending today, and all went way over typical FMV(in one case, almost double). The combination just frustrated the heck out of me. This discussion has become too much about this one book, which isn't what I intended. I just used it as an example of a problem that is growing(with a wide range of stuff, not just ASM) in the current market.

 

 

I'm really starting to get aggrivated with the current market. It wouldn't bother me so much, since I just choose not to buy much until things cool, exc

 

 

What a frustrating time this is for those of us who aren't willing to burn money. Can someone shed some insight as to why everyone suddenly has the ballz to throw around this kind of cash?

 

I always read your Threads and always do my best to listen to your words with total acceptance. You almost always have good things to say and are a sold asset to this Forum.

 

I personally think that you are putting too much emphasis with the CGC comic market. While your "venting" is completely understandable, it also shows some "fear" that you may have regarding the CGC comic market. The fear that you might have missed out during the "more reasonable market conditions". I think all collectors in any hobby get those feelings from time to time. You also show some business sense for waiting for your price when and if the market cools, so the positives far outweigh the frustrations/aggravations.

 

Remember other posts relating to the basic economic equation of "Supply and demand"??? Simply put, if ONE bidder happens to want the item, and does not care about overpaying, the item gets bought at what we think is a ridiculous price. That buyer for the ASM # 63 CGG 9.4 did not care about FMV. S/he wanted that comic and paid for it. Even in the "down" time of the economy, there are those who will still spend accordingly, and it only takes a few to give the appearance of a market staying "hot" like this one for ASM. That buyer may be a smaller buyer than you are, only s/he knows what is allowed for purchases, but all it takes is ONE buyer at the ONE transaction. Next week a Super Villian Team-Up # 1 CGC 9.6 might sell for $500.00 and another Thread gets started. Bottom line is that the nexus of this transaction is that the ASM IS hot and the ASM 2 movie is out I believe in early July.

 

All good things come to those who wait. I think you WILL eventually get your comics to fill in parts of runs. Any "fears" can not do anyone any good. On Wall Street this is called "Panic Buying" as the Traders/Arbitragers are afraid that they missed the spike up of increased value.

 

This is a good Thread. See ya next time!

 

CAL