10 years since the "crash"... so what caused it?

[lighthouse]

Interesting reply Lighthouse, and how would you say this relates to today, where EBay allows anyone with a Net account to be a dealer?

 

eBay has almost no impact on new issue sales, and therefore has almost no impact on comic book print runs. With the exception of the slab-and-flip-9.8 sellers (myself included) eBay doesn't really have an impact on the the ordering of new releases. There aren't a bunch of retailers out there ordering extra copies hoping to sell them raw on eBay at a profit, the shipping costs are too big a deterrent. So the only real effect on print runs that eBay has is from the slab-and-flip-9.8 guys, and the difference we generate in print runs is less than 1% at this point.

 

The rest of the selling on eBay is after-market, and therefore doesn't really impact print runs with any speed. Print runs of a title will eventually go up if the issues of that title sell for 5x cover on eBay consistently, but that is really no different from the effect of convention sales and traditional mail order sales.

 

For the most part, eBay is a giant garage sale with the same barriers to entry a garage sale has, and the same effect on the production of new goods that garage sales have (at least for goods where shipping costs exceed original retail value, clearly eBay has a HUGE impact on the retail sales of plasma televisions and the like).

[joe_collector]

Whoa, we're talking about back issue meltdowns, which nowdays have zilch to do with brick-n-mortar stores or new issue runs.

 

See, it's all relational, and now it's an online CGC speculator world, rather than the old one controlled by the retailers.

[lighthouse]

Whoa, we're talking about back issue meltdowns, which nowdays have zilch to do with brick-n-mortar stores or new issue runs.

 

See, it's all relational, and now it's an online CGC speculator world, rather than the old one controlled by the retailers.

 

I suppose the point is debatable about the current effect of brick-n-mortar stores and new issue print runs... but there is no denying that those two were central to the crash of 1993-94. The crash of the new issue market and back issue market were simultaneous back then, although (as usual) true keys suffered little...

[joe_collector]

Lghthouse, I think you've got a great point in your "no barriers to entry" argument, as this is one of the inherent problems of "everyone with a Net account can be a dealer on EBay".

 

The difference is that in the 90's it was newbie dealers buying everything and driving print runs sky high, while this time around, it's back issues that are more affected, with every newbie and his dog playing dealer and flipping high-priced CGC comics into the stratosphere.

 

By jove, I think you're onto something. It all comes down to newbies thinking they can play dealer/retailer, and if the market allows easy entry, then watch out below.

[lighthouse]

When people ask me about the crash, and they do quite frequently, I tell them all pretty much the same thing... (My employees could probably all recite this speech from memory they have heard it so many times)

 

"Comics were so popular for a two-year period that it was possible to make money selling them without having any idea why you were making money. If you have no idea why you are making money when you are making it, you will have no idea why you are losing money when you are losing it. And those stores didn't belong in the industry in the first place."

 

During 1999, comic shops all over the country got a huge boom from Pokemon. The largest store in San Antonio went from monthly sales of $22K to monthly sales of $76K during the six month PokeBoom. I am aware of similar results throughout the country. The smart stores saw that as an opportunity to build a war chest to help them through the rough times. The rest of the stores thought they "deserved" these extra profits, and got what they really deserved when the PokeCrash came.

 

If you don't know why you are making money, you won't know why you are losing money...

[Hensley300]

Joe, I understand and bank your point but i feel you are dancing around your real opinion as of late and want the raw "Joe Collector magic 8-ball" shaken not stirred. Given your previous responses to this thread and the cycle to speculator vs in-out long term pain, do you feel:

1. this cycle is either different or longer in duration than than the 90s/80s crach cycle?

2. where do you personally feel we are in this cycle? beginning/end/middle?

I only ask because from the beginning of this forum i have noted your devils advocate position and have also noticed certain comments you have made come true. I feel ultimately you are either more in tune with the cyclic life span of the market on a long term scale as we have experienced in the past.

Is the cgc phenomenon prolonging the immediate effect of a market decline for either 9.8s or 9.6 rare issues? We have already seen a decline in very common non-key 9.8s . take any non-key daredevil or asm above 301. Take any batman 608 rrp or spawn 1 9.8 for that matter.

[joe_collector]

Those are some good points, and I do feel that the CGC-EBay phenomenon is extending or changing the historical "crash cycle".

 

The reason is, that we have already had multiple crashes in different areas, but the specs then seem to pick up a new ball and run with it. Books like Spider-man #1 (1990) were selling for insane amounts in CGC 9.8-9.9 condition, and then suddenly became virtually worthless. Lots of modern stuff like Venom and Spawn followed suit, and even Bronze books like Daredevil 131 dropped like a stone once the stinker of a movie came out.

 

But at the same time as these horrific "segment crashes" were taking place, the speculators started beating a different drum, and drawing the unwary into laying out even more cash, but this time on other books. Then those cooled off, the speculators moved on to something new, like RRP copies, and we see the same pattern taking form.

 

I have no idea when this "hot potato" routine will end, only that it must end someday, as there is a finite supply of comics to speculate on and to lure the newbies into blowing their wad. After all, no one is going to be suckered into paying $$$ for a Spawn CGC 9.9 copy anymore, so the crashed areas are essentially "forbidden zones" for speculation, and will remain so.

 

Buyers are also becoming more wary, as each of these "sure things" proceed to melt down after the intitial speculator buzz wears off.

 

What we are really seeing is multiple boom-bust cycles taking place simultaneously, and constantly shifting to new boom-bust areas, which means that while it will take longer to get to the final meltdown, this will not change the final outcome in the least.

[Illiterati-migration]

So what happened to the OTHER Joe_Collector?

[joe_collector]

So what happened to the OTHER Joe_Collector?

 

He only comes out when Mmmmarvel or one of his numerous, brainless, spineless shills is working the thread.

[Illiterati-migration]

So what happened to the OTHER Joe_Collector?

 

He only comes out when Mmmmarvel or one of his numerous, brainless, spineless shills is working the thread.

 

Mmmm. I see...

[joe_collector]

He only comes out when Mmmmarvel or one of his numerous, brainless, spineless shills is working the thread.

 

Mmmm. I see...

 

Don't worry, you're only third on my list of "Who is Mmmarvel?" candidates. That is, unless you want to move up....?

[fiendish]

V-man:

 

Can we add to the list:

 

Enhanced Covers !!!

 

I got your limited edition, die-cut, metallic hologram right here.

 

(The one Superman issues with the Supes/Lobo colorforms was pretty cool, though.)

[fiendish]

Totally agree (and the fact that I'm in the videogame industry has nothing to do with it ).

 

I'd like to see a chart of new issue price points from that era. As I recall, the early 90s saw the price of regular monthly comics go from $1.25 to as high as $3.95 (for special, double-sized, holo-foil-die cut, scratch 'n sniff covered issues). I was buying and reading regularly from 1991 through 1994, but quit when my monthly comics bill went through the roof. Without that core fan base of regular readers, who's left? The speculators.

[fiendish]

God and Satan are taking turns creating the world.

 

God says "let there be light," so Satan says "let there be darkness."

 

God says "let there be good," and Satan says "let there be evil."

 

God says "let there be life," and Satan says "let there be death."

 

And so on, and so on, through everything else (shoehorns, pasta...).

 

Then God says "let there be an economist." Satan thinks for a while, scrating his head.

 

Finally, Satan says, "let there be TWO economists!"

[fiendish]

LH:

 

Would you draw a fair corollary in the Beanie Babies market during the same period (circa '98-'99)?

 

When I started seeing Beanie Babies on sale in airport gift shops, I knew that crash had started.

[fiendish]

Rob Liefeld...

 

-snip-

 

It's all his fault!

 

Ditto! Ditto! Ditto!

 

Plus: he spawned a LEGION of imitators, all of whom sucked for the same reasons. Even established artists (HERB TRIMPE!?!) changed their style to be more Liefeldian.

 

To this day, whenever I see an artist who:

 

1. composes each panel as though it's a splash page

2. draws everyone with great big thighs and tiny little heads

3. only knows two facial expressions: pout and rage

 

I flee!

[awe4one]

Don't forget the entrance of the Sports Card guys into this hobby after the card crash. They were some of the first to dump their inventories at the first hint of weakness as they didn't want to lose out again. And when they left, their "flock" realized the multiple Youngbloods #1s they were assured would be worth hundreds weren't worth squat and they subsequently stopped buying new issues.

 

"Uber hot" companies, Image and Continuity chief among them, also couldn't get an issue out the door on time despite continuing to solicit issues monthly. Retailers had their money tied up in undelivered goods and had to fold their stores or at a minimum were stuck with unsold inventory.

 

Jim

[Mr. Kabotz-migration]

One other point that I'm really surprised someone hasn't raised yet...

 

Certain segments of the speculative comic market heated up (3+ years back) when investors were looking for alternative investment sources because the traditional markets (stock market) were in the tank. There is some correlation between the ebb and flow or traditional markets and the ebb and flow of the comics market -- that is, money flows into the comic market when traditional investments suck. We've seen the slabbed, speculative market blossom (Hulk 181, "Get your slabbed Spidey book now before the movie comes out!", etc.) when stock market returns were poor.

 

For a certain segment of the comic collecting industry, this seems to play a large role. This may, in part, explain a "crash," and will be one of the reasons that certain elements of the comic market will drop in the next few years as the economy heats up.

[Marvelous]

In conclusion, the silver lining that came out of this correction are vastly lower print runs and much better quality products which to this day, we're still enjoying.

 

Although it is true Marvel has lower print runs they make up for it by publishing 21+ issues a year instead of the normal 12. I think Marvel is pulling another fast one on the collectors. I personally would rather see 12 excellent issues published a year instead of 21+ average or below average issues. How many people bought all the different Doc Ock story arcs? What a bunch of garbage they were. Did anyone check out the new Alpha Flight? More garbage. I guess having great art and writing is too much to ask for when we are only paying a measly $2.95 per comic. Anyhow, the way I see it is that 21+ copies a year plus high cover price gives Marvel the same sort of profits they were making on the higher print runs in the early 90s.

[jduran1]

The infinity gaunlet 1-6 was the reason. On a serious note. We all know that EBAY changed everything. No need to discuss the reasoning. The lower print runs will keep the modern market healthy. The Silver and Bronze age is getting expensive and will continue to stay that way which for us long term collectors a good and bad thing. All you have to do is look at the heritage auctions and see how healthy our collectible industry is and will continue to be. Might be some small corrections but don't see anything to drive that soon.