10 years since the "crash"... so what caused it?

[joe_collector]

'House, that mirrors one of the few accurate insights I've gained from Chuck's Tales from the Database -- like you, he believes the new comics bust was the result of thousands of bad business decisions by newbie comics shop proprietors.

 

Of course people love this pat explanation, as it provides an easy target for the speculator melt-down on the 1990's. Blame those stupid comic book owners, and thank God they're not in business anymore!

 

The alternative is far too frightening to even contemplate, as that would be pointing the finger at comic book collectors, speculators and investors, many of whom have been brought back to the CGC end of the hobby.

 

So yeah, if it makes you sleep better at night, then blame those evil comic shops, rather then the specs currently paying 20X Guide for a CGC 9.8 Modern.

[lighthouse]

'House, that mirrors one of the few accurate insights I've gained from Chuck's Tales from the Database -- like you, he believes the new comics bust was the result of thousands of bad business decisions by newbie comics shop proprietors.

 

Of course people love this pat explanation, as it provides an easy target for the speculator melt-down on the 1990's. Blame those stupid comic book owners, and thank God they're not in business anymore!

 

The alternative is far too frightening to even contemplate, as that would be pointing the finger at comic book collectors, speculators and investors, many of whom have been brought back to the CGC end of the hobby.

 

So yeah, if it makes you sleep better at night, then blame those comic shops, rather then the specs currently paying 20X Guide for a CGC 9.8 Modern.

 

I'll have you know that I sell my CGC 9.8 Moderns for 11X Guide...

 

And the CGC 9.9s for 25X-40X Guide...

 

And the CGC 10s for 50X-120X Guide...

[Zonker]

Curse you Zonker! Once I finish off my current nemesis, the Rocket Surgeon, you move to the top of the list!

 

It was the 'non-fiction' travelogues that originally gave you away, my man. But don't worry, your secret's safe with chrisco37 and myself!

[tilleycs]

Personally, it wasn't the cover-price that killed it for me. It was the saturation of the market. I stopped collecting in the early/mid-90's because of all the spin-off series, one-shots, specials, mini-series, etc. I was primarily an X-Men and Spider-Man collector, but as the number of titles I had to keep up with each month went from 4 or 5 to 14 or 15, plus about half a dozen specials and mini-series, I just couldn't keep up, either financially or in terms of sustaining interest. I imagine that's what happened with alot of people.

 

For me, it was a combination of the two - too high a cover price (I stopped when the cover price went from $1 to $1.25) coupled with market oversaturation (and this was before Image, Valiant, Dark Horse, etc. started flooding the market). I never even bothered trying to collect Spider-Man or Batman because of all the normal titles, specials, one-shots, etc. I collected X-Men for a while, but I stopped when they started churning them out twice a month. The storylines and the artwork went downhill to the point where I couldn't justify the cost.

 

I just didn't want to try to keep up. It took a level of financial commitment that I was NOT willing to make.

[dam60]

Due to the magic of compounding returns, more and more existing collectors will be priced out of the market very quickly if price appreciation continues to outstrip income growth by a more than 10 to 1 ratio every year. That's just simple mathematics.

 

Uh, Gene??? Yeah, I uh, well, I uh don't get it???

 

Could you spell it out for me a bit more - maybe some numerical examples?

 

DAM

[dam60]

Personally, it wasn't the cover-price that killed it for me. It was the saturation of the market. I stopped collecting in the early/mid-90's because of all the spin-off series, one-shots, specials, mini-series, etc. I was primarily an X-Men and Spider-Man collector, but as the number of titles I had to keep up with each month went from 4 or 5 to 14 or 15, plus about half a dozen specials and mini-series, I just couldn't keep up, either financially or in terms of sustaining interest. I imagine that's what happened with alot of people.

 

that's what happened to me!! Maximum Carnage put an end ot my collecting back in the early 90s and ebay is what brought me back STRONG.

 

DAM

[dam60]

House - wow. What a great post. I too will read your longer version with enthusiasm. Very insightful.

 

DAM

[Mushroom]

I don't respond to crash threads anymore.......

 

but Gene and JC.....is the crash coming this year or not??? and if not why did we have to read all those threads last year.

[MMMarvel-migration]

I don't respond to crash threads anymore.......

 

but Gene and JC.....is the crash coming this year or not??? and if not why did we have to read all those threads last year.

[jbud73]

Great post house and others - I agree that the retailer view has been understated. I also believe that JC is right in that there were speculators who increased demand but had no clue about comics, and that YES this lead to the opening of shops by alot of RETAILERS who had no clue about comics. You add those together and I think a very strong case can be made that they were the core factors involved in the crash.

 

Now that is history - and I would like to take the information a step furhter and posit an arguement - not an arguement that I'm convinced is 100% valid but something I'd like to throw out there to test. Start with this quote.

 

So yeah, if it makes you sleep better at night, then blame those evil comic shops, rather then the specs currently paying 20X Guide for a CGC 9.8 Modern.

 

Now 'House is it logical that we are seeing an influx or a market surge now? I think its safe to say yes. Now someone else, Zonker I believe made an excellent observation as to the errors in lumping the comics market into one big ball of wax.

I think its also safe to say that yes, barriers to entry were too low for a new retailer in the early 1990s and I do not expect that there are going to be 7,000 new brick and morter stores again like the 90's, however what about 7,000 or more new ebay retailers I think thats a little more realistic, I wonder if we could track the emergence and fluctuations of Ebay Comic retailers, If we could I bet we would see that they are growing in a steady upward spike. You see I think that the same market forces have to potential to be there, but they are not likely to manifest themselves in the same format.

 

So what does this mean? Well I'm not sure but I think that I am tending to agree with the person who made the analogy of the $1.25 early 90's speculator, to the ppl buying the $24.95ish 9.8 new comic speculator now. I know that alot of ppl on these boards are making a boat load of cash selling these things, but they truly are the worst investment and trend in the comic market today. This is where the levie will break in my opinion - all the potential market forces are there, just like in the early 90's.

 

The next step is what effect, if any will this have on the other 3-4 categories of collecting. Well I think that the graded collectables market with take a hit, but maybe not to the extent that everyone thinks - I also think that Donuts empire will remain intact - but certain other ppl's cash cows will dry up, not that they mind as they have made their $$$$.

 

Look at the Ebay retailers, even though they may be tied to a actual store, Im talking about the ones that offer the guaranteed CGC 9.8 new comic subscription service - these are the guys that have refined it, perfected it and sowed it like cyanide to the sheep.

 

I may not see a crash coming on of Biblical proportions, however this thread has cemented for me the fact that the New issue CGC 9.8s and up are the worst investment and trend in the comics hobby/market today. It could very well be that Wolverine Origin is the Spiderman / X-Men #1 of the 2000's.

 

House I know that you have stated that the CGC new comic 9.8plus market is in your opinion a small percentage of business, I think that maybe you have underestimated it. I think it is also compounded by the cost factor, again 24.95, verses $1.25.

[jbud73]

I love getting the last word

[duncan36]

The full blame lies with Marvels corporate management. Simple as that. They lost all their talent to Image, the quality of art/stories suffered as books were churned out 2 or 3 times a month to get more profit, the bad stories and costly cover gimmicks brought in the speculators and drove away the fans.

[CompleteRunComics]

 

 

I know nothing of the technical/financial reasons for the colapse but in hindsight I can remember its unfolding concerning the Marvel Universe.

 

So many new releases every month. - Marvel's hole Epic line that I simply could not afford. Sleepwalker?, Nighthrasher?, Quasar? etc..-

 

Then bi-monthly titles. - Spider-Man, X-Men..-

 

So many variant issues of one number. - X-Men vol.2 five printings of #1. Gen13 had what, 13 variants of issue #1? -

 

So many foil/enhanced covers. - some nice, some just plain ugly, all expensive -

 

So poorly written stories. - Amazing Spinder-Man's Maximum Clonage story-arc creating Exedren Headache #1327, Avengers were horrible, Iron Man worse, Fantastic Four forgettable, Daredevil sporting armor, Captain America also sporting some armor, (Hulk with Peter David not so bad), West Coast Avengers pure agony, X-titles...dare I tempt the wrath of the fanboys?...-

 

So I had to pare back on my collecting. Then the ending and subsequent relaunch of most of the major titles, Rob Liefeld's work and the subsequent re-relaunching of the titles again drove me away for a good 6-7 years. Now I'm back and loving it, however...

 

Marvel is releasing a heck of alot of new monthly titles....

 

Spider-Man and the X-Men have doubled up a few months recently (X-Treme X-Men's Storm story-arc, four issues in one month)...

 

2nd, 3rd, 4th printings of issues featuring new art...

 

Sketch covers, variant artist alternate covers...

 

Some lacking stories...

 

 

Reminds of this time back in the late eighties/early nineties.

 

 

CRC

 

...crash, eh, correction surely.

[FFB]

This is Chuck R.'s theory as well. Although it's hard to pinpoint one thing that caused it, this one seems to be the one that makes the most sense to me.

 

My degree's in Business Economics. Why would that give us people an advantage again?

 

Yeah ,..your right Gene,...sorry...I forgot you have a degree in EK-O-NOM-ICKS...

 

Beats me... My degree is in Economics as well... and I take great pride in the fact that I have not only read Hal Varian, I both understood him and liked him...

 

My own (completely insane) opinion on what caused the crash of 1993-94:

Lack of industry barriers to entry.

 

I would postulate that if the barriers to entry in the comic book retailing industry circa 1992 had been comparable to those in other industries, there would have been no crash. Nearly all of the other factors mentioned in this thread have direct relationships with the proliferation of inefficient retailers in the marketplace.

 

Rather that ramble on for another five paragraphs detailing my rationale as I normally would, I will instead await replies from those capable of arguing my point.

[fiendish]

Peter David's run on Hulk were some of the most interesting stories coming out of Marvel at that time.

 

X-Factor was the best-written X-title at that time as well, because it focused on the core of what makes X-Men so popular: a group of cranky misfits trying not to kill each other as they fight evil in its many forms. Fun, character-driven stuff. The other X-titles of the time made my head hurt because I couldn't keep all the alternate timelines and dimensions straight. Was Bishop from the same future as Cable? Hellifiknow...

[jbud73]

You know I was just gonna say that after Jim Lees Batman run and the proliferation of X-titles and Spidey titles, that the big two might be seeing if they can churn up the mass printing bubble again and see who bites.

[joe_collector]

Okay, I've done a little re-reading of the various industry pubs from a 1993 pre-crash perspective, and there are the usual suspects being trotted out by seemingly-prophetic "the apocalypse is coming" dealers and market reporters.

 

One of the biggies that seems to have slipped under the radar bears examination, especially since it was one of the main causes of both the speculative bubble and the horrendous dealer over-orders:

 

Retailer Premiums

 

You remember, those "you order 25/50/100 of this issue and we'll toss in one of our gold-foil enhanced, limited edition, signed by the creators, guaranteed to shoot up in value overnight comics - Now how many thousand copies shall I put you down for?"

 

These premiums or incentive comics came in many forms, including the above "order more" versions, along with "dealer appreciation" issues, convention/retailer-only copies, and quite a few others.

 

These had a very detrimental effect on the market, and really drove the nail through the comic book coffin:

 

1) Exploding values drove speculators into a frenzy, spiking incentive/premium comic values and demand sky-high.

 

2) Dealers started making a nice profit from incentive comic resale, thus giving them another "profit bubble" to pop. It got so lucrative, that some mail-order dealers starting dealing almost exclusively in this crapola.

 

3) Excessive dealer orders were needed to get many of these incentives, so it was a double-edged sword when the inevitable crash came about. Not only did they have 50 worthless "retailer incentive" copies to blow off, but a cool 1K of worthless comics as well.

 

By early 1993, there were several large dealers throwing up red flags over this business practice, predicting that it would spell doom and gloom for the hobby, and lead to "speculators displacing collectors" and "dizzying inventory levels".

 

It also has some interesting parallels to today's market.

[davidking623]

Okay, I've done a little re-reading of the various industry pubs from a 1993 pre-crash perspective, and there are the usual suspects being trotted out by seemingly-prophetic "the apocalypse is coming" dealers and market reporters.

 

One of the biggies that seems to have slipped under the radar bears examination, especially since it was one of the main causes of both the speculative bubble and the horrendous dealer over-orders:

 

Retailer Premiums

 

You remember, those "you order 25/50/100 of this issue and we'll toss in one of our gold-foil enhanced, limited edition, signed by the creators, guaranteed to shoot up in value overnight comics - Now how many thousand copies shall I put you down for?"

 

These premiums or incentive comics came in many forms, including the above "order more" versions, along with "dealer appreciation" issues, convention/retailer-only copies, and quite a few others.

 

These had a very detrimental effect on the market, and really drove the nail through the comic book coffin:

 

1) Exploding values drove speculators into a frenzy, spiking incentive/premium comic values and demand sky-high.

 

2) Dealers started making a nice profit from incentive comic resale, thus giving them another "profit bubble" to pop. It got so lucrative, that some mail-order dealers starting dealing almost exclusively in this crapola.

 

3) Excessive dealer orders were needed to get many of these incentives, so it was a double-edged sword when the inevitable crash came about. Not only did they have 50 worthless "retailer incentive" copies to blow off, but a cool 1K of worthless comics as well.

 

By early 1993, there were several large dealers throwing up red flags over this business practice, predicting that it would spell doom and gloom for the hobby, and lead to "speculators displacing collectors" and "dizzying inventory levels".

 

It also has some interesting parallels to today's market.

 

Wow another crash thread! Cool Ill be counting the days for another!

Kinda like the impending crash that is coming soon!

 

Davidking623

[PunishU-migration]

Marvel, DC, etc... corporate greed as well as individual greed by people like Liefield, McFarelane, Jim Lee etc... would be my guess. They fueled the speculator market with all the multiple and gimmick covers. I think they watched the movie 'Wall Street' too many times and agreed with Gordon Gecko that "Greed for lack of a better word... is Good."

[bababooey]

 

old dead thread, good readin'