10 years since the "crash"... so what caused it?

[dupont2005]

 

The TPB presents them a complete story as easy as that. You're right, it's not someone who would have been buying back issues for $4. It's someone who doesn't buy back issues at all.

 

--------------

 

And likely someone who doesn't buy monthly floppies either (case in point, WD huge tpb sales). it is a different market (largely...i did buy wd tpbs because 1-20, etc. were too expensive), so however you slice it, a back issue market in the krapper does not help the publishers. when were they making money hand over fist? in 1990-1993 when the back issue market was doing great. it isn't either or.

I think the back issue market for anything more than a few months old did relatively poor back then. Weren't people trading SA keys for Valiants back then? Yeah, the publishers would probably like if there was a reliable surge in interest in month old comics, because then speculators would buy them by the crate like they did back then. I don't see how a comic 10+ years old being desirable helps them at all anymore.

[Beige]

What provides some measure of protection is high cover prices. This makes a speculation gamble a big risk. It's not like a shop in the 90s buying an extra 100 copies of New Mutants 100 for 55 cents each or whatever the wholesale price was. It was hard to loose there because the market was such that they'd probably sell half of them for cover price (at least), which almost covered the cost for the whole extra 100, and if they had to toss the other 50 into the 50 cent box at a slight loss per issue, they'd still be making money overall.

 

Now, buying an extra 100 copies of a new book is going to be a $150-$200+ gamble. If it isn't a hit you could be stuck with 90-100 copies being tossed into the 50 cent box where you are losing $1-$1.50 even if you manage to sell them ALL for 50 cents.

 

In the early 90s you really had to make huge speculation purchases, particularly on high cover price books (see Turok 1! X-Men 1 premium edition, etc.) to be bankrupted. Now it just takes a few mistakes (like ordering an extra 200 copies of Skullkickers 2 --- repeat and rinse a few times with some others) for a store to not be able to make their rent. So shop owners are more cautious as are collector/flippers. It's the reason I bought ONE TOT 1 rather than 30 when it was a $3-$5 book, I didn't want to get stuck spending $90 on $15 worth of 50 cent box books if the trajectory changed on pricing quickly (which also happens with more frequency with the internet inspired market).

 

So, all in all, I think there are a lot of factors that will buffer against a repeat of the early 90s. Not to mention, contrary to popular board beliefs, it's not like every image #1 is a speculation hit....the ones that have been busts far outnumbers the ones that have gone up, and it's not just a failed series...Haunt #1 continues to be published, but it isn't a back issue winner. of course, it HAS to be that way, otherwise every image #1 would have a six figure print-run (which i suspect is what held haunt back as it was anticipated and purchased)

 

Outstanding post - well put Sir.

[Qiky]

Just read all 15 pages of this what an interesting read seeing the view 10 years ago and now.

I left comics in the mid nineties for a while and was to young to get involved in the whole speculation industry back then. Thank god for the crash though as I was able to refresh my whole comic collection with nm copies for about 8 cents. (I exaggerate but you know what I mean)

 

I have no plans to ever sell my comics and don't buy with that in mind, if I love a comic I will get in early and try and buy a 9.8 SS for $150 or so (bedlam, tot for example) for my collection simply because I can't bring myself to go back a year later and have to pay $1000 for it, but it's getting more and more impossible lately. When a comic has been out for a week now people seem to be willing to pay $500 for a 9.8! This can't last, the economics is way to similar to the dot com bubble right? People are hoarding literally 100's of nm+ copies of these books and will flood the market when it's ripe. Look at ebay now everything reads Revival 1# the new walking dead NBC tv show, people are paying through the nose for the chance to get on the 'new walking dead' with no knowledge whatsoever, they probably never read either comic, all the while thinking this will be worth 2k when the tv show hits. They don't understand the print numbers are different and there are 100's of copies ready to flood the market. What would walking dead 1 be worth if speculators have 300 9.8s waiting in the wings?

 

In my opinion the bubble will burst sooner rather than later this false economy can only last so long. Will the whole market go down? No. It will just be this crazy speculative modern market that will have a drastic correction. While I wait for it I will continue to spend my hard earned on high grade raw bronze and copper keys which I think are good value for money right now if you can get in on the right auction.

[Jackhartmann]

I think I quit in the early 1990's when the writing became bland and tons of issues came out. I didn't buy the Image hype, but the flood of titles was overwhelming. today, it is overwhelming but I but what I like.

[mysterio]

Noob necromancy! WTTB!

[fastballspecial]

The bubble bursting is not an entirely bad thing. It will weed out some bad eggs.

 

[natevegas]

also the increase of small market presses plus lower print runs make the 90's 500k+ print runs seem a bit of less risk. Plus if its a well written and drawn book coupled with low print runs will buffer the bubble from busting. I too stopped reading comics in the 90's cause there was a plethora of drek. But the big 3 were riding the waves and when it crashed not many did well. Walking dead #1's would never be in the ballpark they are right now if 200 k were printed. The fact that it was closer to 8 k helps that out a lot.

[Nutflush76]

I just went through this entire thread. It's funny, I started reading it and it sounded exactly like a conversation that could have been started today. I started realizing that some of the time frames were off and saw 2004 as the posting date!

 

Personally, I see the current market as completely different than the 1990's. Its highly unlikely that the print runs for a book will ever hit a million again as they were in the 90's (oh BTW, some of those old "rare" Batmans, Spider-Mans, and Supermans from the 60's and 70's had print runs in the millions, heck so did Shazam, although he was Captain Marvel back then.) Also, comics aren't as much of a "niche" hobby as they were back then. With movies, TV, and other forms of media supporting the industry, there are a lot of things keeping the interest in comics at a higher level despite the lower print runs.

 

I don't think that the lower print runs necessarily = less readers. With so many more avenues available to get books, digital, trade, etc, it keeps the print runs down. There just won't be as big of a demand for a monthly book to reach a million plus copies. Add in the $2.99 and above cover price and you have another factor that keeps the overall demand for weekly books down.

 

Now, that's not to say that there will no longer be highs and lows in the comics market. I think its just like any market where you will have fluctuations in demand. I just don't think that there will be the repeat of the "crash" the way there was in the 90's because the market won't ever get to the point of supporting such huge numbers of books as there was back then. There won't be as much at risk so retailers will be able to weather the ebbs and flows of the market much better than they did in the past.

 

[aggr1103]

This is probably a good thread to necro.

 

DC is bringing out 3D covers and losing money in the process.

 

I feel a comic bubble about to burst again. I'm just waiting on a new die cut cover.

[Garf]

Do you honestly think things are going to go *POP*? ... or just gradually slow down and margins get tighter?

[Beige]

This is probably a good thread to necro.

 

DC is bringing out 3D covers and losing money in the process.

 

I feel a comic bubble about to burst again. I'm just waiting on a new die cut cover.

 

What is the definition of a "Bubble"?

 

Outside of the Walking Dead, which is a once in a lifetime event, the market has corrected itself very quickly - the only losers being the people who either:

 

1) Had not done enough homework before speculating or

 

2) Had more money than sense.

 

Revival, Bedlam, Saga, Manhattan Projects etc have all risen and fallen, but in a gentle process, nobody bought waaay too high and lost a bundle - even the first 9.8 buyer will still get a chunk of their cash back (Revival highest $150 - should still get half back now for example).

 

The peeps that jumped in believing creator/publisher hype without doing homework got trashed.

Yup - Nowhere Men - prime example of 'someone' pumping and 'dumping' whilst lining their pockets. Unfortunately some people have lost $800 as a result. Homework people, homework.

 

The best thing about Stephensons 'creative' approach to 'limited' numbers of variants, is that it DID cause a correction. The approach to Nowhere Men won't be replicated by those who got burned, or those who watched it happen.

 

New books now, will be judged on their ability to have longevity and not to be saturated with a gazillion variants (SECONDARY market only).

I believe Uber is now on page 5 of this forum. That should say it all.

 

There is a strong, vibrant market for new comics in the primary market, not a month goes by without a decent new book coming out, but if you play the secondary game, then patience, knowledge and hard work are necessary.

Of course, if you speculate on a 'big 2' book with a 300,000 print run - you probably aren't going to do so well.

 

I think the market is very healthy. Long may it continue.

[mysterio]

Revival, Bedlam, Saga, Manhattan Projects etc have all risen and fallen, but in a gentle process, nobody bought waaay too high and lost a bundle - even the first 9.8 buyer will still get a chunk of their cash back (Revival highest $150 - should still get half back now for example).

 

The peeps that jumped in believing creator/publisher hype without doing homework got trashed.

Yup - Nowhere Men - prime example of 'someone' pumping and 'dumping' whilst lining their pockets. Unfortunately some people have lost $800 as a result. Homework people, homework.

 

The best thing about Stephensons 'creative' approach to 'limited' numbers of variants, is that it DID cause a correction. The approach to Nowhere Men won't be replicated by those who got burned, or those who watched it happen.

 

I think the market is very healthy. Long may it continue.

 

This scenario you describe is different than the 90s bubble, and this current one has some of the same attributes on a smaller scale. But rather than popping seemingly overnight, this current market is deflating more gradually. One reason seemingly the entire Modern section of this board keeps saying that 2012 > 2013 is that the bubble was getting the air blown in during the former and has been letting the air out in the latter. Flipping frenzy was at its highest during 2012, when everyone was either selling those books or buying them up, and in 2013 fatigue set into the market. Part of that is likely being driven by collector demand being satisfied (if you have the books you want for your collection you are no longer in the market to soak up supply), but it could also be due in part to the slipping prices. Nobody wants to try to catch a falling knife, so everyone keeps waiting for the prices to settle down to the bottom. So prices keep falling as nobody is buying. This effect also will make folks gunshy to buy in too heavily to new books, as Bedlam provides a nice cautionary tale of hype driving a books value way too high, a tale backed up by the performance of damn near every other 2012 Image book so far this year.

 

Now Sixth Gun is a much closer example of the 90s type of bubble, and may also be creating a bit of fear/caution in people too.

[Taco]

Nicely said Beige.

 

And that's why I've been sitting back waiting for Pretty Deadly. If it is ever going to happen.

 

Somehow The Wake snuck in there, but I was only pay 18 cents a copy after I sold the variants. Collider also snuck in during that wait, but shh.

[aggr1103]

What is the definition of a "Bubble"?

 

Outside of the Walking Dead, which is a once in a lifetime event, the market has corrected itself very quickly - the only losers being the people who either:

 

1) Had not done enough homework before speculating or

 

2) Had more money than sense.

 

Revival, Bedlam, Saga, Manhattan Projects etc have all risen and fallen, but in a gentle process, nobody bought waaay too high and lost a bundle - even the first 9.8 buyer will still get a chunk of their cash back (Revival highest $150 - should still get half back now for example).

 

The peeps that jumped in believing creator/publisher hype without doing homework got trashed.

Yup - Nowhere Men - prime example of 'someone' pumping and 'dumping' whilst lining their pockets. Unfortunately some people have lost $800 as a result. Homework people, homework.

 

The best thing about Stephensons 'creative' approach to 'limited' numbers of variants, is that it DID cause a correction. The approach to Nowhere Men won't be replicated by those who got burned, or those who watched it happen.

 

New books now, will be judged on their ability to have longevity and not to be saturated with a gazillion variants (SECONDARY market only).

I believe Uber is now on page 5 of this forum. That should say it all.

 

There is a strong, vibrant market for new comics in the primary market, not a month goes by without a decent new book coming out, but if you play the secondary game, then patience, knowledge and hard work are necessary.

Of course, if you speculate on a 'big 2' book with a 300,000 print run - you probably aren't going to do so well.

 

I think the market is very healthy. Long may it continue.

 

You're quite right, but I'm referring more to the trends at present compared to the trends of the early 90's, particularly with regards to gimmick covers. You're even seeing it in the Image books you just mentioned.

 

Maybe your right though. Maybe the lack of interest in variant covers could lead to a correction.

[ComicConnoisseur]

This is probably a good thread to necro.

 

DC is bringing out 3D covers and losing money in the process.

 

I feel a comic bubble about to burst again. I'm just waiting on a new die cut cover.

 

What is the definition of a "Bubble"?

 

Outside of the Walking Dead, which is a once in a lifetime event, the market has corrected itself very quickly - the only losers being the people who either:

 

1) Had not done enough homework before speculating or

 

2) Had more money than sense.

 

Revival, Bedlam, Saga, Manhattan Projects etc have all risen and fallen, but in a gentle process, nobody bought waaay too high and lost a bundle - even the first 9.8 buyer will still get a chunk of their cash back (Revival highest $150 - should still get half back now for example).

 

The peeps that jumped in believing creator/publisher hype without doing homework got trashed.

Yup - Nowhere Men - prime example of 'someone' pumping and 'dumping' whilst lining their pockets. Unfortunately some people have lost $800 as a result. Homework people, homework.

 

The best thing about Stephensons 'creative' approach to 'limited' numbers of variants, is that it DID cause a correction. The approach to Nowhere Men won't be replicated by those who got burned, or those who watched it happen.

 

New books now, will be judged on their ability to have longevity and not to be saturated with a gazillion variants (SECONDARY market only).

I believe Uber is now on page 5 of this forum. That should say it all.

There is a strong, vibrant market for new comics in the primary market, not a month goes by without a decent new book coming out, but if you play the secondary game, then patience, knowledge and hard work are necessary.

Of course, if you speculate on a 'big 2' book with a 300,000 print run - you probably aren't going to do so well.

 

I think the market is very healthy. Long may it continue.

 

[Lonzilla]

Having been around back then I called it "the baseball card mentality" with hologram covers, and limited edition / false rarities, almost like today's variant covers with he 1:100 / 1:200 ratio, a fake demand for something deliberately created to be "rare".

For those who may remember, the 1st of the special embossed covers was Silver Surfer #50, and it was something neat and different at the time, but with no price hike. But the ones that followed had a higher cover price and were hyped up as "special holo cover, embossed cover, 3D cover" etc.

You had people buying comic books by the buttload who A) didn't read comics, and B) were trying to make a fast buck by buying X-amount of junk product they knew nothing about.

Being a skeptic, my BS radar went off when in '91 Wizard has every Valiant book listed in their price guide for hundreds of dollars and WOW S**T, every other page in their rag was a Valiant ad!?! 2+2= scam.

Dealers too dumb, or greedy, to see the fake hype quadrupled their orders, and today the 5/ $1 bins are filled with that dreck.

 

I agree with one of the above posters that speculating was easier when cover price was $1 each. Back in the day I bought 20 copies each of XMen 266 and ASM and 361, and even hit up the 7-11's and Wawas for ASM 252's when I was in high school. No ebay or internet, those books were quick to move at mall shows or flea markets

 

Sadly, I see some of the same greed from shops today as existed in the Valiant / Image early 90's with stores jacking up the price on new books after a week. Brave New Worlds in particular. When Nowhere Men started to peak, they raised the price of issue 3 from cover price to $10, and now they're stuck with a lot of copies that nobody wants at triple cover.

Also, they're a Ghost Variant chain store and NONE of them are ever available at cover price, unlike the Phantom Variant shops in the area.

 

I'd like to end with this" There's only one Walking Dead, there will never be another. No comic book that gets picked up for a movie or TV show will make you a millionaire. But we sell books to people who think it will and they're happy thinking that so... yay capitalism

[Dukes40]

The comic book market is doing their damage right now with their variants. At first it was for special celebration books. Then it was for retailers. So, now you have 1:4; 1:10; 1:50; 1:200, limited to 100, 250, 500 type variations coming from the major publishers like Marvel and DC as well as more indie press like Zenescope who actually prints their own money by making these 100 limited edition print runs and selling the comics for $50-100 at conventions right out of the gate. Manufacturing scarcity. If a tree falls in the woods and nobody's there to hear it, does it fall? If a company prints 1, 10, 100, or 1,000 copies but there's not enough interested buyers, is it truly scarce?

 

I think the only way to stop the insanity and go back to the basics is to stop supporting the pushers and the dealers. If you starve them, then the pushers (hording resellers) will be forced to lower their prices to turn their bad investments into cash, and the dealers (publishers) will stop producing the junk (variants) and putting 'em on the street.

 

What about legitametly nice/cool/awesome variants that one buys strictly for the cover (not for the ratio/not for the investment)?

 

Most of the variants I buy, I genuinely like the cover or theme of covers, regardless of what the ratio on them is. This sometimes makes collecting them very easy (1:10), or exceedingly difficult and frustrating (1:50, 1:100). Personally, I don't see why they make the sketch variants the higher ones. Who even buys these, save for investing? The pictures are WORSE, so why get them, other than to flip?

 

I think the whole variant debate gets muddled up into black or white, when there is this grey area as well.

[Dukes40]

Just make sure a new character is introduced every five issues of X-Men and the money will keep rolling in. Eventually the people who actually read the comics caught on and quit buying them, then the speculators had nobody to sell to but each other.

 

And then this causes the situation where a cool character like Omega Red is brought in at this time, then not used for years, and ends up getting wasted.

 

That ALMOST happened with Fantomex (introduced later though). Very grateful that Remender brought him back.

[Dukes40]

Has anyone read any 90's garbage recently?

I flicked though a couple of issues of Bloodstrike and there was like 20 pages to it, hardly any dialogue and 50% of the books were full of ads about the next big #1 issue that was coming out.

There was absolutely no substance to these books (why the hell I ever bought it is beyond me). At least most of the modern Image books that I've seen have decent writing and the ideas are fresh and interesting - and the print runs aren't 500,000 per book.

 

 

Haha. I read that recently, a Prophet #1, and a Superior #1, as I only collected X-Books in the 90's, and I started reading the reboots of Prophet (amazing, weird and wild Sci-Fi now) and Bloodstrike, so wanted to see what the originals were like.

 

Ya, don't read the originals.

 

 

A lot of the X-Stuff was good though, not just fluff. But then, they had 30 years of characters and continuety to work from. I find that both X-Men titles were strong, X-Factor was pretty good up until issue 100 or so, and X-Force was good until about issue 30.

 

I still get a kick when I see some of the old Image, Valiant, even Marvel, where they have "First Issue, Collectors Item!" on the front cover. hahaha. Very cheesy.

[Taco]

Avengers #5 1:75 Thor variant. 'Nuff said.