Speculating on Moderns

[RockMyAmadeus]

Ummmmm, I'm just saying I find the thread fascinating from a retailer's viewpoint. So, let's please not have any battles this Sunday too. My .

 

My comment had absolutely nothing to do with you, J. You are a prince among gentlemen, as far as I'm concerned.

[Boozad]

You are a prince among gentlemen, as far as I'm concerned.

 

Jerel is the man.

[comix4fun]

It's just strange to hear people talking "out loud" about speculating on moderns.

 

Maybe none of these people were around in 1992-1993 when the downfall started to really roll, but speculators in the modern area were what just about killed this hobby, and led to the closure of thousands of comic shops around the country.

 

It was a really dark time in comics and it took almost a decade for it to recover.

 

It's that whole "Learn from history or be doomed to repeat it" thing that I've heard about.

 

Quiet, you! You're just trying to keep people from scalping an honest buck! Shame on you!

 

 

 

In that vein, I have a couple of cases of Turok #1 and/or Lady Death #1 (with coupon still intact for 1/2 off a breast enhancement procedure), you are interested.

 

Lady Death #1...?

 

The original #1...?

 

I wish you weren't kidding. I love that book.

 

 

 

 

Which Lady Death #1??

 

There were 47 different Lady Death #1's by the time 1997 rolled around, with 179 total cover variations.

[500Club]

It's just strange to hear people talking "out loud" about speculating on moderns.

 

Maybe none of these people were around in 1992-1993 when the downfall started to really roll, but speculators in the modern area were what just about killed this hobby, and led to the closure of thousands of comic shops around the country.

 

It was a really dark time in comics and it took almost a decade for it to recover.

 

It's that whole "Learn from history or be doomed to repeat it" thing that I've heard about.

 

 

I think market dynamics are different now. We don't have the sports card boom refugees, and cover prices make it very hard for massive overordering.

 

When you look at that crash, it was stores that overordered, and jaded 'collectors' who realized that their 100 X-Force #1s were worthless who vanished from the hobby. The stores that didn't overorder often had sales ballooned by spec purchases. Without those purchases, the market probably wouldn't have supported the large expansion of LCS numbers from 1988 to 1993.

 

It was a fragile house of cards that was never built on love of or desire for the product. I just don't see a perfect storm of those factors ever coming together again.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[500Club]

Whaddaya think, should I post my PSA in "that other thread"...?

 

I find it beyond hilarious that a comic retailer, who has an obvious conflict of interest, and who has a history of negotiating variant reprints of notoriously tough and pricey books, has started a "here, let's talk about what will be worth $$$$ even before it hits the shelves!"

 

I mean, are people just THAT greedy...?

 

Yes. Yes they are.

 

 

What is your rationale for buying/owning multiple copies of Batman 428? One copy is enough to read, no?

[RockMyAmadeus]

It's just strange to hear people talking "out loud" about speculating on moderns.

 

Maybe none of these people were around in 1992-1993 when the downfall started to really roll, but speculators in the modern area were what just about killed this hobby, and led to the closure of thousands of comic shops around the country.

 

It was a really dark time in comics and it took almost a decade for it to recover.

 

It's that whole "Learn from history or be doomed to repeat it" thing that I've heard about.

 

Quiet, you! You're just trying to keep people from scalping an honest buck! Shame on you!

 

 

 

In that vein, I have a couple of cases of Turok #1 and/or Lady Death #1 (with coupon still intact for 1/2 off a breast enhancement procedure), you are interested.

 

Lady Death #1...?

 

The original #1...?

 

I wish you weren't kidding. I love that book.

 

 

 

 

Which Lady Death #1??

 

There were 47 different Lady Death #1's by the time 1997 rolled around, with 179 total cover variations.

 

The first one, silly!

[RockMyAmadeus]

Whaddaya think, should I post my PSA in "that other thread"...?

 

I find it beyond hilarious that a comic retailer, who has an obvious conflict of interest, and who has a history of negotiating variant reprints of notoriously tough and pricey books, has started a "here, let's talk about what will be worth $$$$ even before it hits the shelves!"

 

I mean, are people just THAT greedy...?

 

Yes. Yes they are.

 

 

What is your rationale for buying/owning multiple copies of Batman 428? One copy is enough to read, no?

 

Oddly enough, Batman #428 came out almost EXACTLY 22 YEARS ago.

 

(thumbs u

 

(That's the answer to the question, by the way.)

[fastballspecial]

It's just strange to hear people talking "out loud" about speculating on moderns.

 

Maybe none of these people were around in 1992-1993 when the downfall started to really roll, but speculators in the modern area were what just about killed this hobby, and led to the closure of thousands of comic shops around the country.

 

It was a really dark time in comics and it took almost a decade for it to recover.

 

It's that whole "Learn from history or be doomed to repeat it" thing that I've heard about.

 

 

I think market dynamics are different now. We don't have the sports card boom refugees, and cover prices make it very hard for massive overordering.

 

When you look at that crash, it was stores that overordered, and jaded 'collectors' who realized that their 100 X-Force #1s were worthless who vanished from the hobby. The stores that didn't overorder often had sales ballooned by spec purchases. Without those purchases, the market probably wouldn't have supported the large expansion of LCS numbers from 1988 to 1993.

 

It was a fragile house of cards that was never built on love of or desire for the product. I just don't see a perfect storm of those factors ever coming together again.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Good points there. I bolded one part I hold responsible more then any other part at the time.

 

Personally I dont see a problem with buying an extra copy or two to speculate on especially when I would just the extra cash to buy more comics anyway. I like the thread. There is alot of BS in there, but it reviews new books coming out which I dont see anywhere else in that fashion.

 

 

[500Club]

It's just strange to hear people talking "out loud" about speculating on moderns.

 

Maybe none of these people were around in 1992-1993 when the downfall started to really roll, but speculators in the modern area were what just about killed this hobby, and led to the closure of thousands of comic shops around the country.

 

It was a really dark time in comics and it took almost a decade for it to recover.

 

It's that whole "Learn from history or be doomed to repeat it" thing that I've heard about.

 

 

I think market dynamics are different now. We don't have the sports card boom refugees, and cover prices make it very hard for massive overordering.

 

When you look at that crash, it was stores that overordered, and jaded 'collectors' who realized that their 100 X-Force #1s were worthless who vanished from the hobby. The stores that didn't overorder often had sales ballooned by spec purchases. Without those purchases, the market probably wouldn't have supported the large expansion of LCS numbers from 1988 to 1993.

 

It was a fragile house of cards that was never built on love of or desire for the product. I just don't see a perfect storm of those factors ever coming together again.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Good points there. I bolded one part I hold responsible more then any other part at the time.

 

Personally I dont see a problem with buying an extra copy or two to speculate on especially when I would just the extra cash to buy more comics anyway. I like the thread. There is alot of BS in there, but it reviews new books coming out which I dont see anywhere else in that fashion.

 

 

The best thing about it, and current new book speculation, is that being hot usually correlates with being good. I'd ve missed MG if not for the send up on these boards.

[500Club]

Whaddaya think, should I post my PSA in "that other thread"...?

 

I find it beyond hilarious that a comic retailer, who has an obvious conflict of interest, and who has a history of negotiating variant reprints of notoriously tough and pricey books, has started a "here, let's talk about what will be worth $$$$ even before it hits the shelves!"

 

I mean, are people just THAT greedy...?

 

Yes. Yes they are.

 

 

What is your rationale for buying/owning multiple copies of Batman 428? One copy is enough to read, no?

 

Oddly enough, Batman #428 came out almost EXACTLY 22 YEARS ago.

 

(thumbs u

 

(That's the answer to the question, by the way.)

 

Help a fellow out....

 

I don't do cryptic so good...

[RockMyAmadeus]

Whaddaya think, should I post my PSA in "that other thread"...?

 

I find it beyond hilarious that a comic retailer, who has an obvious conflict of interest, and who has a history of negotiating variant reprints of notoriously tough and pricey books, has started a "here, let's talk about what will be worth $$$$ even before it hits the shelves!"

 

I mean, are people just THAT greedy...?

 

Yes. Yes they are.

 

 

What is your rationale for buying/owning multiple copies of Batman 428? One copy is enough to read, no?

 

Oddly enough, Batman #428 came out almost EXACTLY 22 YEARS ago.

 

(thumbs u

 

(That's the answer to the question, by the way.)

 

Help a fellow out....

 

I don't do cryptic so good...

 

It's not a NEW comic......

 

 

[500Club]

Whaddaya think, should I post my PSA in "that other thread"...?

 

I find it beyond hilarious that a comic retailer, who has an obvious conflict of interest, and who has a history of negotiating variant reprints of notoriously tough and pricey books, has started a "here, let's talk about what will be worth $$$$ even before it hits the shelves!"

 

I mean, are people just THAT greedy...?

 

Yes. Yes they are.

 

 

What is your rationale for buying/owning multiple copies of Batman 428? One copy is enough to read, no?

 

Oddly enough, Batman #428 came out almost EXACTLY 22 YEARS ago.

 

(thumbs u

 

(That's the answer to the question, by the way.)

 

Help a fellow out....

 

I don't do cryptic so good...

 

It's not a NEW comic......

 

 

OK. I guess my challenge is: how does this differ from buying new books on spec? When is it greed? When do we say our desire to profit from the hobby has crossed the threshold into greed? Pressing for profit? Grinding a dealer for every last % off we can get? Offering grandma less than a fair price? New book spec has always been a hot button topic in this regard, more so than other profit oriented collecting activities.

[sakaridis]

Whaddaya think, should I post my PSA in "that other thread"...?

 

I find it beyond hilarious that a comic retailer, who has an obvious conflict of interest, and who has a history of negotiating variant reprints of notoriously tough and pricey books, has started a "here, let's talk about what will be worth $$$$ even before it hits the shelves!"

 

I mean, are people just THAT greedy...?

 

Yes. Yes they are.

 

 

What is your rationale for buying/owning multiple copies of Batman 428? One copy is enough to read, no?

 

Oddly enough, Batman #428 came out almost EXACTLY 22 YEARS ago.

 

(thumbs u

 

(That's the answer to the question, by the way.)

 

Help a fellow out....

 

I don't do cryptic so good...

 

It's not a NEW comic......

 

 

OK. I guess my challenge is: how does this differ from buying new books on spec? When is it greed? When do we say our desire to profit from the hobby has crossed the threshold into greed? Pressing for profit? Grinding a dealer for every last % off we can get? Offering grandma less than a fair price? New book spec has always been a hot button topic in this regard, more so than other profit oriented collecting activities.

More than pressing?

 

More than lowballing?

 

More than being a gypsy/tramp/thief and taking advantage of those less knowledgeable?

 

Not on these boards!

[ComicConnoisseur]

Whaddaya think, should I post my PSA in "that other thread"...?

 

I find it beyond hilarious that a comic retailer, who has an obvious conflict of interest, and who has a history of negotiating variant reprints of notoriously tough and pricey books, has started a "here, let's talk about what will be worth $$$$ even before it hits the shelves!"

 

I mean, are people just THAT greedy...?

 

Yes. Yes they are.

 

 

What is your rationale for buying/owning multiple copies of Batman 428? One copy is enough to read, no?

 

Oddly enough, Batman #428 came out almost EXACTLY 22 YEARS ago.

 

(thumbs u

 

(That's the answer to the question, by the way.)

 

Help a fellow out....

 

I don't do cryptic so good...

 

It's not a NEW comic......

 

 

OK. I guess my challenge is: how does this differ from buying new books on spec? When is it greed? When do we say our desire to profit from the hobby has crossed the threshold into greed? Pressing for profit? Grinding a dealer for every last % off we can get? Offering grandma less than a fair price? New book spec has always been a hot button topic in this regard, more so than other profit oriented collecting activities.

I use to be so against it, then I realized that they put so much money into the back issue market that it is good for back issue comic sales overall, similar to the the Robber Barons of the 1890`s like Rockerfeller,Carnegie and Morgan who were thought as greedy crooks but brought in and left millions of dollars into the American economy.You have to have a few hot speculated books to keep interest alive or you will end up with a bunch of people just buying 30 old reader comics for 9.99.so a Morning Glories every once in a while is good to keep interest alive,

[500Club]

OK. I guess my challenge is: how does this differ from buying new books on spec? When is it greed? When do we say our desire to profit from the hobby has crossed the threshold into greed? Pressing for profit? Grinding a dealer for every last % off we can get? Offering grandma less than a fair price? New book spec has always been a hot button topic in this regard, more so than other profit oriented collecting activities.

I use to be so against it, then I realized that they put so much money into the back issue market that it is good for back issue comic sales overall, similar to the the Robber Barons of the 1890`s like Rockerfeller,Carnegie and Morgan who were thought as greedy crooks but brought in and left millions of dollars into the American economy.You have to have a few hot speculated books to keep interest alive or you will end up with a bunch of people just buying 30 old reader comics for 9.99.so a Morning Glories every once in a while is good to keep interest alive,

 

My goal with my comments above was to try to illustrate the value judgements we make in the hobby vis-a-vis profit. We all vary, to some degree. In almost every instance, some say greed, some say profit. Ultimately, though, value oriented decisions are made by all of us, I'd say.

 

I wasn't myself making any judgements, or equating the examples - just trying to illustrate the gray areas out there.

 

(I probably could've used a more ambiguous example than grandma, though. )

[the blob]

greed is a comic shop getting wind of the hotness of a book (perhaps here on tuesday) and just foregoing selling them at cover and going right to $20 without letting anyone buy at cover. greedy shooting yourself in the foot would be to burn file customers like that and claim your order got shorted when in fact you pulled 20 copies of your smaller file customers' and are selling them on ebay.

 

greed i guess would have been going to your LCS 2 months ago at 11 a.m. and grabbing every copy of MG #1 off the rack before anyone else had a shot at it.....

 

then again, i've done the same thing in 50 cent boxes. i was a vacuum cleaner with the Albedo 3s when a shop i frequented, which must have had a big stack of them, was dispersing them in the 50 cents boxes, likely not knowing what they were. it's not like i gav anyone else a crack at that goody.

 

Larry and other dealers who get stuck with overstock on the regular stuff that winds up going in the discount box have to make up for those losses elsewhere to stay in business. It's a tough enough business that shops are closing, so hardly easy money.

[RockMyAmadeus]

Whaddaya think, should I post my PSA in "that other thread"...?

 

I find it beyond hilarious that a comic retailer, who has an obvious conflict of interest, and who has a history of negotiating variant reprints of notoriously tough and pricey books, has started a "here, let's talk about what will be worth $$$$ even before it hits the shelves!"

 

I mean, are people just THAT greedy...?

 

Yes. Yes they are.

 

 

What is your rationale for buying/owning multiple copies of Batman 428? One copy is enough to read, no?

 

Oddly enough, Batman #428 came out almost EXACTLY 22 YEARS ago.

 

(thumbs u

 

(That's the answer to the question, by the way.)

 

Help a fellow out....

 

I don't do cryptic so good...

 

It's not a NEW comic......

 

 

OK. I guess my challenge is: how does this differ from buying new books on spec? When is it greed? When do we say our desire to profit from the hobby has crossed the threshold into greed? Pressing for profit? Grinding a dealer for every last % off we can get? Offering grandma less than a fair price? New book spec has always been a hot button topic in this regard, more so than other profit oriented collecting activities.

Because it's not a new book. That's really the best answer.

 

To expand, however, it's important to note that there's absolutely nothing wrong....or "greedy", as it were....to spot a particularly attractive investment and pay a fair price for it. Old books become attractive as investments because they have some quality that makes them desirable to other people, whether it's the story, the art, the cover, the characters that appear, the staple placement, whatever. Every book was new at one time, but the books that are sought after and desired as back issues are desired because they have one or more of those qualities.

 

And....the vast majority of these books were printed in numbers that were sustainable by whatever market was current at that time, without *too* much being bought for the purposes of "putting away just in case" (that is, speculation.)

 

If more than 1% of the people who bought FF #1 off the stands bought more than 1 copy, I'd be shocked beyond belief. And that's one of the reasons why FF #1 has maintained its value over the years. The market must be mostly composed of individuals who buy single copies for the purposes of entertainment. The market WILL support a small amount of speculation, but that amount has to be tiny compared to those buying for entertainment in order to be sustainable.

 

When the balance is shifted in favor of the speculators, when there are too many speculators and not enough single copy buyers (usually when there are more copies sold to speculators in total than there are single copy buyers in total), the market eventually cannabalizes itself, and greed eats it from the inside like a cancer. This is how it happens:

 

The speculators eat up available copies. This creates the artificial appearance of demand. Publishers foolishly don't care who the books sold to, as long as they are "sold out." Distributors don't care who the books sold to, as long as they are "sold out." Same with retailers (I am generalizing, but it's almost always true.)

 

The publisher sees "sold out" and ups their print orders for the next month(s), not realizing that they've "sold" more copies than the market will really bear. The distributor does the same thing, and so do the retailers (unless they're smart, and pay attention to who is buying what, and why.) And speculators up and down the chain buy a "few extra", "just in case."

 

The casual reader, who hears "the buzz" about a great new book is frustrated in his/her attempts to find one, because they're locked up in the hands of the speculators. The casual reader may, or may not, stick around long enough to buy a later printing (to some extent, this problem has been ameliorated by trade paperbacks, but it still exists to a degree.)

 

The casual collector, who just wants to buy new comics as they come out, may often be thwarted by the bottleneck created by speculators. More often than not, since they aren't interested in later printings, they'll forego an entire series until they can pick it up "on the cheap" after "the hype dies down" (and someone has lost their money.)

 

The serious reader may have a pull list at a store, or online, but those situations are not immune to the siren call of profit, either. If they don't, very often these readers have left the entire hobby in disgust because they just want to be able to buy the stuff they want to buy, at the price at which it is published, just like people were able to buy Harry Potter, or the latest Stephen King. Sure, there was a rush, but everyone who wanted one could reasonably obtain it within a reasonable frame of their release, at the published price.

 

The serious collector may be convinced that they have to obtain an item NOW, before it goes up even FURTHER! Spurred by the "gotta have it all" mentality surrounding comics, they feel it necessary to give in to the speculators demands of $10, $15, $25, $50, $100...or more....for a book that the ink isn't even dry on. Then, when they discover they've been had, they too, more often than not, just give up entirely and leave in disgust.

 

Finally, all you have left are the speculators, trying to play each other off as the greater fool, and they finally realize the lights are on, but nobody's home, and they leave, either having made their profit, or dumping acres of unwanted books on a market that never could have supported them to begin with.

 

But the damage is already done. Those "few extra" that everyone along the chain bought turn out to be 1, 20,100, 1,000 times the demand, and have now become unsellable at any price. The glut created at all points along the distribution channel destroys everyone, from local retailers to national publishers. People don't get paid, creators don't get work, printers aren't running, and the industry implodes because the supports...really, nothing but air and dreams of riches....topple.

 

This is exactly what happened in 1992-1995. It nearly destroyed the entire comics industry, and took a lot of really decent creators and retailers with it. The decent retailers often feel like they're stuck between a rock and a hard place, because if they don't at least pay lip service to "the latest hot thing", they run the very real risk of losing their customer base to those that will, and cultivating loyal customer bases is a difficult task even in industries based on NEED, much less non-essentials.

 

This is why we had printruns in the MILLIONS for books that would rightfully have sold in the low hundreds of thousands, if that. Turok #1 would have been overprinted if it had only had 10% of its print run....but if that had happened, I bet Valiant might still be around, at least in some form, today, and Turok #1 wouldn't be the poster child for greedy speulation.

 

And these problems are greatly magnified in the tiny market we have now. Back in 1993, when there were, oh, say 500,000-1,000,000 people buying books, the market could absorb 10,000 copies dumped by speculators. Now, 10,000 extra copies will destroy a large sized retailer, and maybe even take out a couple of his or her competitors.

 

The United States Mint has done the exact same thing for decades now. They have created an environment of "gotta have 'em all", and they mint far too many than there is demand for, and people end up with losers that aren't worth what they paid for them. The reason the US Mint doesn't go out of business, however, is obvious.

 

You may say "well, sure but there are sure bets, right? Stuff that can't lose?" Rrrrrrright. There's no such thing as a "sure bet" in unreleased product. Frank Miller + Batman = sure bet, right? And Dark Knight Strikes Back was TERRRRRIBLE, and cost a lot of people a lot of money (not least of all DC, to the tune of $1,000,000.)

 

Books should be viewed as investments when and if they've stood the test of public scrutiny, and not before. If the public approves of the book, great, buy up all the copies you want. But not until then. Buying every copy of Batman #428 I can get my hands on will not harm anybody (except maybe me) because it is long ago removed from the chain of new product. It has little to no impact on that chain, because they are really entirely different markets.

 

As to the rest of your questions, that's not what I was addressing, but are separate issues worthy of discussion elsewhere.

 

Speculating on new, unreleased, unknown comic books nearly destroyed the industry, and destroyed a great many careers, on all sides of the industry. It made the business of selling funny books infinitely more difficult, and cost every single one of us who loves the artform in some way, even if it's just as little as not having a local store close to us.

 

It should be discouraged at every level, and certainly should be recognized for what it is when a RETAILER...who should KNOW better...is aggressively pushing the idea. If I'm not mistaken, Larry was around in the mid 90's, and retailed through the crash. That he doesn't, and is pushing this idea, is clear evidence that he's forgotten history, and is doomed to repeat it...while dragging some of you right down with him.

[RockMyAmadeus]

Whaddaya think, should I post my PSA in "that other thread"...?

 

I find it beyond hilarious that a comic retailer, who has an obvious conflict of interest, and who has a history of negotiating variant reprints of notoriously tough and pricey books, has started a "here, let's talk about what will be worth $$$$ even before it hits the shelves!"

 

I mean, are people just THAT greedy...?

 

Yes. Yes they are.

 

 

What is your rationale for buying/owning multiple copies of Batman 428? One copy is enough to read, no?

 

Oddly enough, Batman #428 came out almost EXACTLY 22 YEARS ago.

 

(thumbs u

 

(That's the answer to the question, by the way.)

 

Help a fellow out....

 

I don't do cryptic so good...

 

It's not a NEW comic......

 

 

OK. I guess my challenge is: how does this differ from buying new books on spec? When is it greed? When do we say our desire to profit from the hobby has crossed the threshold into greed? Pressing for profit? Grinding a dealer for every last % off we can get? Offering grandma less than a fair price? New book spec has always been a hot button topic in this regard, more so than other profit oriented collecting activities.

I use to be so against it, then I realized that they put so much money into the back issue market that it is good for back issue comic sales overall, similar to the the Robber Barons of the 1890`s like Rockerfeller,Carnegie and Morgan who were thought as greedy crooks but brought in and left millions of dollars into the American economy.You have to have a few hot speculated books to keep interest alive or you will end up with a bunch of people just buying 30 old reader comics for 9.99.so a Morning Glories every once in a while is good to keep interest alive,

 

Um. Ok. This, despite the fact that the US Comic Book Industry thrived for decades without a single "hot speculated book" to keep interest alive.

 

They kept interest alive by telling stories that people enjoyed.

[RockMyAmadeus]

I have contended before, and will contend again now:

 

If ANY of the publishers had shown ANY sort of restraint at all, and figured out who their books were selling to, why, and in what quantities, and then RESTRICTED their print runs to meet the initial demand, then printed additional printings, clearly distinguished, as demand dictated, the industry could have survived the bloodbath that was 1996.

 

Yes, it would have been tough. Yes, people would have screamed and cried and moaned and wailed. But if it could have spared the industry the madness of the mid 90's, it would have been worth it.

 

Not a single one of them did. Every single one of them thought the goose would lay forever, and every single one of them chased after the quick, easy dollar...and it nearly destroyed every single one of them (and actually did take quite a few.)

 

 

[500Club]

Because it's not a new book. That's really the best answer.

 

To expand, however, it's important to note that there's absolutely nothing wrong....or "greedy", as it were....to spot a particularly attractive investment and pay a fair price for it. Old books become attractive as investments because they have some quality that makes them desirable to other people, whether it's the story, the art, the cover, the characters that appear, the staple placement, whatever. Every book was new at one time, but the books that are sought after and desired as back issues are desired because they have one or more of those qualities.

 

Agree. Just getting at the fact that it's arbitrary to call one thing an attractive investment and another thing greed fueled. Which leads to the discussion of....

 

When the balance is shifted in favor of the speculators, when there are too many speculators and not enough single copy buyers (usually when there are more copies sold to speculators in total than there are single copy buyers in total), the market eventually cannabalizes itself, and greed eats it from the inside like a cancer. This is how it happens:

 

The speculators eat up available copies. This creates the artificial appearance of demand. Publishers foolishly don't care who the books sold to, as long as they are "sold out." Distributors don't care who the books sold to, as long as they are "sold out." Same with retailers (I am generalizing, but it's almost always true.)

 

The publisher sees "sold out" and ups their print orders for the next month(s), not realizing that they've "sold" more copies than the market will really bear. The distributor does the same thing, and so do the retailers (unless they're smart, and pay attention to who is buying what, and why.) And speculators up and down the chain buy a "few extra", "just in case."

 

The casual reader, who hears "the buzz" about a great new book is frustrated in his/her attempts to find one, because they're locked up in the hands of the speculators. The casual reader may, or may not, stick around long enough to buy a later printing (to some extent, this problem has been ameliorated by trade paperbacks, but it still exists to a degree.)

 

The casual collector, who just wants to buy new comics as they come out, may often be thwarted by the bottleneck created by speculators. More often than not, since they aren't interested in later printings, they'll forego an entire series until they can pick it up "on the cheap" after "the hype dies down" (and someone has lost their money.)

 

The serious reader may have a pull list at a store, or online, but those situations are not immune to the siren call of profit, either. If they don't, very often these readers have left the entire hobby in disgust because they just want to be able to buy the stuff they want to buy, at the price at which it is published, just like people were able to buy Harry Potter, or the latest Stephen King. Sure, there was a rush, but everyone who wanted one could reasonably obtain it within a reasonable frame of their release, at the published price.

 

The serious collector may be convinced that they have to obtain an item NOW, before it goes up even FURTHER! Spurred by the "gotta have it all" mentality surrounding comics, they feel it necessary to give in to the speculators demands of $10, $15, $25, $50, $100...or more....for a book that the ink isn't even dry on. Then, when they discover they've been had, they too, more often than not, just give up entirely and leave in disgust.

 

Finally, all you have left are the speculators, trying to play each other off as the greater fool, and they finally realize the lights are on, but nobody's home, and they leave, either having made their profit, or dumping acres of unwanted books on a market that never could have supported them to begin with.

 

But the damage is already done. Those "few extra" that everyone along the chain bought turn out to be 1, 20,100, 1,000 times the demand, and have now become unsellable at any price. The glut created at all points along the distribution channel destroys everyone, from local retailers to national publishers. People don't get paid, creators don't get work, printers aren't running, and the industry implodes because the supports...really, nothing but air and dreams of riches....topple.

 

This is exactly what happened in 1992-1995. It nearly destroyed the entire comics industry, and took a lot of really decent creators and retailers with it. The decent retailers often feel like they're stuck between a rock and a hard place, because if they don't at least pay lip service to "the latest hot thing", they run the very real risk of losing their customer base to those that will, and cultivating loyal customer bases is a difficult task even in industries based on NEED, much less non-essentials.

 

This is a dead-on analysis of the process. I'd posted elsewhere that '92-'95 was a card house built on the appearance of demand. In fact, the seeds were probably laid in the mid to late 80s as purchases of multiple copies and the 'next hot artist' phenomenon really got rolling.

 

This is why we had printruns in the MILLIONS for books that would rightfully have sold in the low hundreds of thousands, if that. Turok #1 would have been overprinted if it had only had 10% of its print run....but if that had happened, I bet Valiant might still be around, at least in some form, today, and Turok #1 wouldn't be the poster child for greedy speulation.

 

And these problems are greatly magnified in the tiny market we have now. Back in 1993, when there were, oh, say 500,000-1,000,000 people buying books, the market could absorb 10,000 copies dumped by speculators. Now, 10,000 extra copies will destroy a large sized retailer, and maybe even take out a couple of his or her competitors.

 

The United States Mint has done the exact same thing for decades now. They have created an environment of "gotta have 'em all", and they mint far too many than there is demand for, and people end up with losers that aren't worth what they paid for them. The reason the US Mint doesn't go out of business, however, is obvious.

 

You may say "well, sure but there are sure bets, right? Stuff that can't lose?" Rrrrrrright. There's no such thing as a "sure bet" in unreleased product. Frank Miller + Batman = sure bet, right? And Dark Knight Strikes Back was TERRRRRIBLE, and cost a lot of people a lot of money (not least of all DC, to the tune of $1,000,000.)

 

Books should be viewed as investments when and if they've stood the test of public scrutiny, and not before. If the public approves of the book, great, buy up all the copies you want. But not until then. Buying every copy of Batman #428 I can get my hands on will not harm anybody (except maybe me) because it is long ago removed from the chain of new product. It has little to no impact on that chain, because they are really entirely different markets.

 

As to the rest of your questions, that's not what I was addressing, but are separate issues worthy of discussion elsewhere.

 

Speculating on new, unreleased, unknown comic books nearly destroyed the industry, and destroyed a great many careers, on all sides of the industry. It made the business of selling funny books infinitely more difficult, and cost every single one of us who loves the artform in some way, even if it's just as little as not having a local store close to us.

 

It should be discouraged at every level, and certainly should be recognized for what it is when a RETAILER...who should KNOW better...is aggressively pushing the idea. If I'm not mistaken, Larry was around in the mid 90's, and retailed through the crash. That he doesn't, and is pushing this idea, is clear evidence that he's forgotten history, and is doomed to repeat it...while dragging some of you right down with him.

 

Almost too many points to address without a huge string of sub-quotes. I'll try to hit the high points. My overall view is that most of the victims of the mid 90s contraction were the authors of their own misfortune. As stores, they overordered on credit to hopefully have copious backstock to sell after the expected price run-ups. As collectors, they ordered 100 Turok 1s to hopefully flip. The industry participants who bought to read were fine. The stores who ordered based on files and actual sales were fine. And at the end of the day, after the contraction, what was left was the true industry, with the illusory elements gone.