Speculating on Moderns

[500Club]

I have contended before, and will contend again now:

 

If ANY of the publishers had shown ANY sort of restraint at all, and figured out who their books were selling to, why, and in what quantities, and then RESTRICTED their print runs to meet the initial demand, then printed additional printings, clearly distinguished, as demand dictated, the industry could have survived the bloodbath that was 1996.

 

Yes, it would have been tough. Yes, people would have screamed and cried and moaned and wailed. But if it could have spared the industry the madness of the mid 90's, it would have been worth it.

 

Not a single one of them did. Every single one of them thought the goose would lay forever, and every single one of them chased after the quick, easy dollar...and it nearly destroyed every single one of them (and actually did take quite a few.)

 

 

I dunno. That restraint might've just constrained supply further, and simply amplified the process. People would've chased the 1st prints and ignored the 2nd prints. That was just the mentality of the day.

[ComicConnoisseur]

Whaddaya think, should I post my PSA in "that other thread"...?

 

I find it beyond hilarious that a comic retailer, who has an obvious conflict of interest, and who has a history of negotiating variant reprints of notoriously tough and pricey books, has started a "here, let's talk about what will be worth $$$$ even before it hits the shelves!"

 

I mean, are people just THAT greedy...?

 

Yes. Yes they are.

 

 

What is your rationale for buying/owning multiple copies of Batman 428? One copy is enough to read, no?

 

Oddly enough, Batman #428 came out almost EXACTLY 22 YEARS ago.

 

(thumbs u

 

(That's the answer to the question, by the way.)

 

Help a fellow out....

 

I don't do cryptic so good...

 

It's not a NEW comic......

 

 

OK. I guess my challenge is: how does this differ from buying new books on spec? When is it greed? When do we say our desire to profit from the hobby has crossed the threshold into greed? Pressing for profit? Grinding a dealer for every last % off we can get? Offering grandma less than a fair price? New book spec has always been a hot button topic in this regard, more so than other profit oriented collecting activities.

I use to be so against it, then I realized that they put so much money into the back issue market that it is good for back issue comic sales overall, similar to the the Robber Barons of the 1890`s like Rockerfeller,Carnegie and Morgan who were thought as greedy crooks but brought in and left millions of dollars into the American economy.You have to have a few hot speculated books to keep interest alive or you will end up with a bunch of people just buying 30 old reader comics for 9.99.so a Morning Glories every once in a while is good to keep interest alive,

 

Um. Ok. This, despite the fact that the US Comic Book Industry thrived for decades without a single "hot speculated book" to keep interest alive.

 

They kept interest alive by telling stories that people enjoyed.

and that maybe is the key right there, for some reason comic back issues just don`t seem to sell like they use to new or back issue wise like they did between 1975 to 1995. It just seems if it isn`t a 9.8 or something pressed to a higher grade the comic generates little interest. I do remember how it was back in the day, late 1980`s and early 1990`s, it was fun , the question now is does the comic book collecting community try to go back those glory days or try to go forward with something new because what is happening now with less and less readers/collectors isn`t working.

btw you do make good points about Harry Potter, or the latest Stephen King paperback books, when they come out people don`t have to pay huge amounts of money for them or look for them,similar example would be a dvd, I want the latest hot dvd,I can get it at the latest price and don`t have to pay 10 times the amount for it just because someone says its sold out Why are comics different from the latest paperback or dvd? when was the last time anyone heard of a hot paperback that came our recently and went up in value? This seems to only happen in comics for some reason.

[the blob]

do remember how it was back in the day, late 1980`s and early 1990`s, it was fun , the question now is does the comic book collecting community try to go back those glory days or try to go forward with something new because what is happening now with less and less readers/collectors isn`t working.

--------

 

you're 20+ years older now. almost everything is a bit less fun now.

 

there's a lot more transparency in the market now (due to the internet), though shows in major metropolitan areas have always had the impact of making pricing more rational, breaking up local comic shop pseudo-monopolies, etc.

 

 

[ComicConnoisseur]

do remember how it was back in the day, late 1980`s and early 1990`s, it was fun , the question now is does the comic book collecting community try to go back those glory days or try to go forward with something new because what is happening now with less and less readers/collectors isn`t working.

--------

 

you're 20+ years older now. almost everything is a bit less fun now.

 

there's a lot more transparency in the market now (due to the internet), though shows in major metropolitan areas have always had the impact of making pricing more rational, breaking up local comic shop pseudo-monopolies, etc.

 

Seems like we had a good thing going back then and somehow it got ruined.

[RockMyAmadeus]

 

Agree. Just getting at the fact that it's arbitrary to call one thing an attractive investment and another thing greed fueled.

 

I don't agree with this at all. Buying back issues has little to no effect on the new comics publishing industry. Speculating on books that don't even exist yet has a tremendous effect on the new comics publishing industry.

 

 

[500Club]

 

Agree. Just getting at the fact that it's arbitrary to call one thing an attractive investment and another thing greed fueled.

 

I don't agree with this at all. Buying back issues has little to no effect on the new comics publishing industry. Speculating on books that don't even exist yet has a tremendous effect on the new comics publishing industry.

 

And that's my point. All I'm saying is that no one tends to agree completely in terms of what is greed fueled and what is investment. It's a value judgement. I'm not really looking at it with the new comic industry in mind.

 

To take the discussion forward, do you think the factors are in place to replicate the market events of the early 90's? I don't think they are.

[Prince Namor]

 

Agree. Just getting at the fact that it's arbitrary to call one thing an attractive investment and another thing greed fueled.

 

I don't agree with this at all. Buying back issues has little to no effect on the new comics publishing industry. Speculating on books that don't even exist yet has a tremendous effect on the new comics publishing industry.

 

And that's my point. All I'm saying is that no one tends to agree completely in terms of what is greed fueled and what is investment. It's a value judgement. I'm not really looking at it with the new comic industry in mind.

 

To take the discussion forward, do you think the factors are in place to replicate the market events of the early 90's? I don't think they are.

 

All of the Mutant books are starting over at #1, with multiple variant covers.

[ComicConnoisseur]

 

Agree. Just getting at the fact that it's arbitrary to call one thing an attractive investment and another thing greed fueled.

 

I don't agree with this at all. Buying back issues has little to no effect on the new comics publishing industry. Speculating on books that don't even exist yet has a tremendous effect on the new comics publishing industry.

 

And that's my point. All I'm saying is that no one tends to agree completely in terms of what is greed fueled and what is investment. It's a value judgement. I'm not really looking at it with the new comic industry in mind.

 

To take the discussion forward, do you think the factors are in place to replicate the market events of the early 90's? I don't think they are.

 

All of the Mutant books are starting over at #1, with multiple variant covers.

The only difference I can see this time is there are no hot artists like Jim Lee or Rob Liefeld or speculators to get these at a million sales.

[Gatsby77]

Wow. _Dead-on_ post by RMA (the long one).

 

Larry (and everyone) needs to read that and take it to heart.

 

My only observation is that one publisher did print to order, as that was their schtick. Triumphant.

 

Just goes to show how crazy the times were--that another upstart company founded precisely to capitalize on the Image/Valiant speculative boom used their print-to-order promise as a selling point to speculators.

 

Art was for , but had some interesting characters & stories. And the Triumphant/Defiant Comics crossover was marketing genius, even though I think it resulted in only one book.

 

 

[500Club]

To take the discussion forward, do you think the factors are in place to replicate the market events of the early 90's? I don't think they are.

 

All of the Mutant books are starting over at #1, with multiple variant covers.

The only difference I can see this time is there are no hot artists like Jim Lee or Rob Liefeld or speculators to get these at a million sales.

 

It goes deeper than that. Cover prices, market penetration, size of the hobby... and most of all, the attitude of the hobby. 'Hot' books actually have to have merit now, as opposed to, say, Youngblood 1, and some of the of the early 90's. People aren't blindly buying multiple copies of garbage books, and I don't think they'll start.

 

The Mutant books #1 start over...? - if the books aren't good, sales numbers will be back to pre- renumbering by issue 5.

[the blob]

I don't agree with this at all. Buying back issues has little to no effect on the new comics publishing industry.

---------------

 

I disagree. A strong back issue market means less stuff in the $1 or less boxes and that means fewer folks taking a pass on what is offered on the rack and figured they can get most of it later as overstock at a deep discount. I dunno how much of the market that is, but it is me.

[500Club]

I don't agree with this at all. Buying back issues has little to no effect on the new comics publishing industry.

---------------

 

I disagree. A strong back issue market means less stuff in the $1 or less boxes and that means fewer folks taking a pass on what is offered on the rack and figured they can get most of it later as overstock at a deep discount. I dunno how much of the market that is, but it is me.

 

That's actually Rocky stating the above

[RockMyAmadeus]

I don't agree with this at all. Buying back issues has little to no effect on the new comics publishing industry.

---------------

 

I disagree. A strong back issue market means less stuff in the $1 or less boxes and that means fewer folks taking a pass on what is offered on the rack and figured they can get most of it later as overstock at a deep discount. I dunno how much of the market that is, but it is me.

 

Um.

 

Ok.

 

Got any real data to prove that...?

 

Or is just pure...watch me now...speculation?

 

Because the people who buy back issues and the people who buy new issues, oddly enough, really aren't the same people, with some exception (but not much.)

 

 

[Jeffro.]

I don't agree with this at all. Buying back issues has little to no effect on the new comics publishing industry.

---------------

 

I disagree. A strong back issue market means less stuff in the $1 or less boxes and that means fewer folks taking a pass on what is offered on the rack and figured they can get most of it later as overstock at a deep discount. I dunno how much of the market that is, but it is me.

 

Okay, this is driving me batty. You know there is a little blue button under posts called QUOTE right? use it, love it

Sorry for being a , failed my will save.

[400yrs]

I have contended before, and will contend again now:

 

If ANY of the publishers had shown ANY sort of restraint at all, and figured out who their books were selling to, why, and in what quantities, and then RESTRICTED their print runs to meet the initial demand, then printed additional printings, clearly distinguished, as demand dictated, the industry could have survived the bloodbath that was 1996.

 

Yes, it would have been tough. Yes, people would have screamed and cried and moaned and wailed. But if it could have spared the industry the madness of the mid 90's, it would have been worth it.

 

Not a single one of them did. Every single one of them thought the goose would lay forever, and every single one of them chased after the quick, easy dollar...and it nearly destroyed every single one of them (and actually did take quite a few.)

 

 

I agree with you on speculating crippling the industry back in the day and everything else you say. However, I think there are other things to consider.

 

I think it's important to consider the publisher of the books. If we are talking about the Big 2 or Dynamite or any company where the publisher stands to make the money / suffer from the sales, then I'd say everything that you've mentioned from the 90s still applies 100%. In those cases, speculation and the over-printing that will probably result on subsequent issues may put the market at risk again as back in the 90s.

 

With Image books, most of this will still apply (ESPECIALLY to books that are being hyped on spec BEFORE release), but I feel it's a bit different as it's the creators that are at risk / receive the reward (rarely) rather than the publisher, CEOs, stockholders, etc.

 

If you look at Chew, Invincible, or TWD, those books are HUGELY successful, yet they still only print to satisfy demand. They sell approximately 13K, 17K and 24K a month respectively which isn't much, but it satisfies demand. On these books, the over prints are and were never big because it's the creators that have to eat it if the comics sit unsold. For that reason, I think you could say that Image creators have to show restraint in their print runs (with rare exceptions like Image United and Haunt which flopped anyway).

 

I think another thing that isn't considered is the market for trades. There are more and more trade waiters / trade readers each month that don't care about the popularity of a single issue. If someone misses out on that really hot first issue because it's selling for big amount to singles collectors, they can wait about 6-8 months and have a trade to read for even less than the price of singles. People who want to read the series will be able to.

[IncHulkFan]

I remember when the Death of Superman came out and one of the local retailers sold it on the release day for $10 (this included the pull-n-hold customers!). He ordered 2 long boxes of just that issue and was thinking of going up to $20 the next day. That to me was the epitome of greed. Needless to say, he was the first to go down in the mid-'90s.

 

There is nothing wrong with speculation. That is really how book prices increase in the first place. What happened in the past was investors who didn't fully understand the market and publishers who weren't paying attention to who was buying their books created a situation that had no where else to go but down. Today, the current market doesn't have the influx of speculators that were seen back then so the impact speculation will have won't be as severe. Lets face it, 99 out of 100 times (purely speculation with no scientific proof whatsoever to back up these figures!) the books that are seen to be "hot" before coming out aren't the ones that end up going up in price. It is books like Mouse Guard or Walking Dead that "sneak up" on the hobby that end up being the ones that would have been great speculation material. The latest X-Book #1 while it will be popular most likely won't hold the "speculation value". At least that is how I see it.

[RockMyAmadeus]

I have contended before, and will contend again now:

 

If ANY of the publishers had shown ANY sort of restraint at all, and figured out who their books were selling to, why, and in what quantities, and then RESTRICTED their print runs to meet the initial demand, then printed additional printings, clearly distinguished, as demand dictated, the industry could have survived the bloodbath that was 1996.

 

Yes, it would have been tough. Yes, people would have screamed and cried and moaned and wailed. But if it could have spared the industry the madness of the mid 90's, it would have been worth it.

 

Not a single one of them did. Every single one of them thought the goose would lay forever, and every single one of them chased after the quick, easy dollar...and it nearly destroyed every single one of them (and actually did take quite a few.)

 

 

I agree with you on speculating crippling the industry back in the day and everything else you say. However, I think there are other things to consider.

 

I think it's important to consider the publisher of the books. If we are talking about the Big 2 or Dynamite or any company where the publisher stands to make the money / suffer from the sales, then I'd say everything that you've mentioned from the 90s still applies 100%. In those cases, speculation and the over-printing that will probably result on subsequent issues may put the market at risk again as back in the 90s.

 

With Image books, most of this will still apply (ESPECIALLY to books that are being hyped on spec BEFORE release), but I feel it's a bit different as it's the creators that are at risk / receive the reward (rarely) rather than the publisher, CEOs, stockholders, etc.

 

If you look at Chew, Invincible, or TWD, those books are HUGELY successful, yet they still only print to satisfy demand. They sell approximately 13K, 17K and 24K a month respectively which isn't much, but it satisfies demand. On these books, the over prints are and were never big because it's the creators that have to eat it if the comics sit unsold. For that reason, I think you could say that Image creators have to show restraint in their print runs (with rare exceptions like Image United and Haunt which flopped anyway).

 

I think another thing that isn't considered is the market for trades. There are more and more trade waiters / trade readers each month that don't care about the popularity of a single issue. If someone misses out on that really hot first issue because it's selling for big amount to singles collectors, they can wait about 6-8 months and have a trade to read for even less than the price of singles. People who want to read the series will be able to.

 

As always, Fo, this is a great post with some excellent points.

 

I wish you posted more over here....hint...hint...

 

[the blob]

I don't agree with this at all. Buying back issues has little to no effect on the new comics publishing industry.

---------------

 

I disagree. A strong back issue market means less stuff in the $1 or less boxes and that means fewer folks taking a pass on what is offered on the rack and figured they can get most of it later as overstock at a deep discount. I dunno how much of the market that is, but it is me.

 

Um.

 

Ok.

 

Got any real data to prove that...?

 

Or is just pure...watch me now...speculation?

 

Because the people who buy back issues and the people who buy new issues, oddly enough, really aren't the same people, with some exception (but not much.)

 

 

A lot of people on this board state they follow the same philosophy. Either get it later on ebay or the bargain box for 1/4 - 1/3 over cover price (or less) or wait for the TPB, I dunno how that crowd splits, we can do a survey if you would like. If the going rate for a typical 3 month old back issue was $2 via these venues I suspect a lot of folks would not bother waiting to find them later and would pay extra.

 

I have stopped buying titles when I know I'm going to see them in the dollar box later. I used to buy Fables every month, but wasn't a fables addict, but there always seemed to a copy of something I bought off the rack in the dollar box 3 months later, so I stopped.

 

I buy WD and Chew off the rack because I have yet to see them in the dollar box. Ditto Eric Powell stuff. A few others too.

 

I see it in my main shop too, weekly customers reducing their issue purchases of new stuff and hitting the dollar box on wed.

 

Am I supposed to conduct market research every time I post here? Where is the market research to support your position? We're both talking out of our arses here, you're just more smug and annoying about it (sometimes...sometimes you're right)

[the blob]

I don't agree with this at all. Buying back issues has little to no effect on the new comics publishing industry.

---------------

 

I disagree. A strong back issue market means less stuff in the $1 or less boxes and that means fewer folks taking a pass on what is offered on the rack and figured they can get most of it later as overstock at a deep discount. I dunno how much of the market that is, but it is me.

 

Okay, this is driving me batty. You know there is a little blue button under posts called QUOTE right? use it, love it

Sorry for being a , failed my will save.

 

Yes, but it will quote the entirety of RMA's diatribe, which I would then have to edit to address one point. You're asking me to do work here and I don't appreciate it.

[the blob]

If you look at Chew, Invincible, or TWD, those books are HUGELY successful, yet they still only print to satisfy demand. They sell approximately 13K, 17K and 24K a month respectively which isn't much, but it satisfies demand.

-------

 

so the print-runs aren't based on orders through previews by shops, but rather, by what the creators think demand will be? (honestly, i don't know..I had always assumed they were based on shop orders and if extra were printed, that might come out of someone else's pocket)

 

i'm surprised they're so low honestly, but i guess none of those titles pump out a stream of variants to get retailers to order more to qualify for them and none of them are available at the "newstand" at Borders, etc. or elsewhere (although I assume that market is miniscule).

 

WD in TPB form is one of the best selling TPB series out there, no?