Ask Gator 13 13

[Captain Canuck]

Why is there such a big discrepancy between OPG prices on keys and what they go for on the market? Will these prices eventually reflect each other? E.g. AF15 OPG 1.0 $1900, market value $3500. Can the OPG be relied on anymore for market value?

[OmarMirza]

Why is there such a big discrepancy between OPG prices on keys and what they go for on the market? Will these prices eventually reflect each other? E.g. AF15 OPG 1.0 $1900, market value $3500. Can the OPG be relied on anymore for market value?

 

 

Gooood question!

[Captain Canuck]

Why is there such a big discrepancy between OPG prices on keys and what they go for on the market? Will these prices eventually reflect each other? E.g. AF15 OPG 1.0 $1900, market value $3500. Can the OPG be relied on anymore for market value?

 

 

Gooood question!

 

If I was able to get a 1.0 for OPG prices I would be all over it, but sadly I cannot even find a 0.5 for that price. Forget even looking on eBay because those prices are greatly inflated. It is a book in high demand and with limited realistic prices and people holding onto them, I just don't see that price discrepancy equaling itself out.

Edited August 30, 2013 by Captain Canuck

[OmarMirza]

Yeah I'm looking for one badly

[The-Collector]

Yeah I'm looking for one badly

 

Maybe if you look for it well you will have better luck.

[Captain Canuck]

I have personally looked on Comiclink, eBay, the forums and Heritage and have not seen one copy go for its OPG price. They are usually double.

[zosocane]

OPG is off or way off on hundreds, if not thousands, of books. So many folks defend OPG, but when you go to the sale forum, GPA is the almost-always cited price guide.

[Captain Canuck]

Why is OPG so off and why is it so frequently referenced if it is no longer accurate and relevant?

[G.A.tor]

Dear Mr. Gator. I hear you are the guy to go to if you are looking for af15...are the rumors true? -total newbie

I buy and sell dozens of af15s every year (thumbs u

[G.A.tor]

Why is there such a big discrepancy between OPG prices on keys and what they go for on the market? Will these prices eventually reflect each other? E.g. AF15 OPG 1.0 $1900, market value $3500. Can the OPG be relied on anymore for market value?

It is bobs price guide and truly has not reflected the market in many many years...a once a year guide cannot possibly reflect the dynamics of today's "instant" market. It is just not logistically feasible

[G.A.tor]

OPG is off or way off on hundreds, if not thousands, of books. So many folks defend OPG, but when you go to the sale forum, GPA is the almost-always cited price guide.

gpa is often cited but in many instances is no more accurate than ospg

 

Gpa captures , for the most part, auction sales (and not all major houses like comic link)...auction sales represent, for the majority of books, a less than retail market (after all if a seller could get full retail for a book, why would they auction and pay the vig). So while gpa does reflect pricing trends in many cases, it too is not really an accurate indicator of many "current" prices on in demand books

[G.A.tor]

Why is OPG so off and why is it so frequently referenced if it is no longer accurate and relevant?

its off because a once a year guide can't possibly capture today's market dynamic....but it is 40+ years of history and is a great reference so still used by many

[Captain Canuck]

G.A.tor, if one cannot rely on GPA, OPG and so on, how do you determine a realistic price for AF15 and what is it? As well, will the market eventually flatten out or will it continue to skyrocket? Month to month prices seem to be steadily going up, I have never seen a book rise this quickly in such a short period of time. I know the demand is high, but is there also a lack of books causing this monthly skyrocketing?

[Captain Canuck]

G.A.tor, is there any value in coverless keys beyond a good read?

[Flex Mentallo]

G.A.tor, if one cannot rely on GPA, OPG and so on, how do you determine a realistic price for AF15 and what is it? As well, will the market eventually flatten out or will it continue to skyrocket? Month to month prices seem to be steadily going up, I have never seen a book rise this quickly in such a short period of time. I know the demand is high, but is there also a lack of books causing this monthly skyrocketing?

 

I hope GAtor wont mind if I make a comment or two with which he may or may not agree in all respects - but if not he'll doubtless say so.

 

Demand sets value, not value demand. (Look at Mystery Tales.)

 

And then there's Hollywood.(Thanos anyone?)

 

No price guide can stay on top of market responsiveness such as that, and therefore Bob Overstreet tends to be consciously conservative about hiking value because he takes a very long view about trends (or at least he did last time I bothered to check about ten years ago when I last bought a guide!). So if value on a given book or genre climbs consistently and maintains that level he'll eventually get round to acknowledging it. But GAtor is absolutely right to say that the true value of the guide is far more in it's function as a reference.

 

It also becomes absurd when collectors cite GPA as if it is a price guide.

 

I just sold my FF #12 9.0 white pages in the C'link auction. Check GPA and you'll find huge variation on prices for that book in that grade - quite impossible to use the information to predict an isolated sale.

 

 

So for a sense of what something is worth, I look less to GPA or Overstreet, and more to dealers I know, because they have their fingers on the pulse.

 

A dealer - which I'm not by the way - I lack the discipline or the skills - is running a business and is obliged to charge what s/he thinks the market will bear. Dealers whose businesses flourish tend to be very astute at gauging the market, which stands to reason and should be obvious.

 

Dealers also want to build up long term repeat custom based on bespoke relationships wherever possible, and this too stands to reason and should be obvious.

 

The onus is on the buyer to determine whether they are comfortable with the price.

 

And I go back to those dealers who give me reason to.

 

Take a bow, GAtor, and Mr Bedrock.

 

 

[G.A.tor]

G.A.tor, if one cannot rely on GPA, OPG and so on, how do you determine a realistic price for AF15 and what is it? As well, will the market eventually flatten out or will it continue to skyrocket? Month to month prices seem to be steadily going up, I have never seen a book rise this quickly in such a short period of time. I know the demand is high, but is there also a lack of books causing this monthly skyrocketing?

Flex has a nice response. Increased demand (due to a myriad of reasons) is what is driving many prices up lately. It will flatten out at some point...the unknown being "when"

[G.A.tor]

G.A.tor, is there any value in coverless keys beyond a good read?

there is always some value (thumbs u

[Sqeggs]

Horn in with my two cents: If you follow auctions of GA books on HA, it's remarkable how close the prices usually are to Overstreet. Whether that's because Overstreet is accurately reflecting the market or whether he effectively sets the market on thinly traded books--that is, books that look to close well below Overstreet get driven up because they appear to be bargains--I don't know.

 

I actually like his conservative approach. There are books that have gone through bubbles but you wouldn't know it from reading Overstreet because he ignored the run up and was still listing what turned out to be a reasonable long-run price when the bubble was over.

 

That said, he does have some blind spots. His listings for many romance books not only don't reflect the current market -- which may be ok -- but also have a fair number of errors, particularly with respect to artist attributions.

[G.A.tor]

Horn in with my two cents: If you follow auctions of GA books on HA, it's remarkable how close the prices usually are to Overstreet. Whether that's because Overstreet is accurately reflecting the market or whether he effectively sets the market on thinly traded books--that is, books that look to close well below Overstreet get driven up because they appear to be bargains--I don't know.

 

I actually like his conservative approach. There are books that have gone through bubbles but you wouldn't know it from reading Overstreet because he ignored the run up and was still listing what turned out to be a reasonable long-run price when the bubble was over.

 

That said, he does have some blind spots. His listings for many romance books not only don't reflect the current market -- which may be ok -- but also have a fair number of errors, particularly with respect to artist attributions.

 

my guess is anyone can find a small sampling of books that correspond to overstreet...and, as sqeggs mentioned) since many GA sals are raw, and to "older" collectors, OSPG does have "more" relevance when it comes to pricing and realized prices... that said, from what I have tracked, OSPG on "main" titles (such as any superhero timely or dc) is often times as much as 25-500% off on average... I would venture to say that OSPG is wrong on every single All Star, every single Captain America, etc, etc... in every grade...just a reality of the medium

[jimbo_707]

Horn in with my two cents: If you follow auctions of GA books on HA, it's remarkable how close the prices usually are to Overstreet. Whether that's because Overstreet is accurately reflecting the market or whether he effectively sets the market on thinly traded books--that is, books that look to close well below Overstreet get driven up because they appear to be bargains--I don't know.

 

I actually like his conservative approach. There are books that have gone through bubbles but you wouldn't know it from reading Overstreet because he ignored the run up and was still listing what turned out to be a reasonable long-run price when the bubble was over.

 

That said, he does have some blind spots. His listings for many romance books not only don't reflect the current market -- which may be ok -- but also have a fair number of errors, particularly with respect to artist attributions.

I agree. I think prices on the "hot" books will eventually come back down to Overstreet. I prefer to think he's low on some books, though. (I think the books I've paid the most over guide for are my Catman 13, my Seven Seas 4, and my Fight 20 - so I stubbornly refuse to admit that he may be right about those, too.)