Top Overstreet grade now 9.2

[rjpb]

I always figured the guide was a better resource for getting a general idea of a book's value as opposed to an exact one. Slabbing has sent HG Silver & Bronze books into a stratosphere that has no relation to guide, Most HG collectors assume all raw books are overgraded and pay accordingly, less than HG Silver & Bronze has nearly always sold for less than guide even before CGC. GA prices are even more out of whack. HG copies of desirable books often sell for well over guide, unless guide is so high that they then sell for less; low to mid grade GA can usually be had for less than guide, unless of course its a classic cover that the guide year after year refuses to aknowledge is worth multiples of the books surrounding it. Ebay has revealed that whole genres are overvalued in the guide. Try getting better than 50% guide for pre-code crime that doesn't have a classic cover.

 

The price guides price fluctuations year over year have at times seemed arbitrary, and the grading criteria shifts around a bit. In a hobby that believes you can discern 5 distinct grades when going from NM to M, and pays incredible multiples based on a third party grading services confirmation of those distinctions, worrying about whether the top grade in the guide is 9.2 or 9.4 seems pointless.

[PovertyRow]

Well, this will probably not be a popular stance but will take it anyway.

And as I mainly collect pre-SA books, and tend to look for Fine condition as a norm, the 9.2/9.4 doesn't mean much to me. So feel free to ignore this!

 

We have had a lot of posts about people saying that raw 9.4 books often aren't. Sometimes the big delaers are cited as examples of overgraded books. So if this is in fact the case, and the general feeling that a book a dealer says is 9.4 has the been overgraded, why should the dealer reports of how much a 9.4 "sells for" or is "priced at" have so much weight? And the OSPG is supposed to be made up of at least extrapolated prices (from the runs - like FF 275-300 all glommed together at the same price as if all the dealers individually priced each book in a run - err - that was an off-the cuff example - not real but you get the idea).

 

What I do disagree with is the total elimination of 9.4 and only the inclusion of the more important books in the OS Monthly. (Have never seen the monthly so am just going by what I have read here.) I mean, it sounds like every 9.4 or better is expected to me CGC'd now. A good deal of the late 70's and the 80's books have been completely eliminated from a 9.4 listing and it is books like these that I suspect folks would be looking for in 9.4 since they are overall so plentiful. So what do we do? CGC every 9.4 West Coast Avengers or Nova 18? I think with these books, I have to ask the forum crowd who collect them - are you looking more for 9.2's of the "commons" or would 9.4 or better suit you more?

 

Back in the 80's I used to say there were "two" comic book collecting realms. Newer books and older books. The real difference being the point in time when multiple copies of books were starting to be bought with an eye to the future. Seems around 1964ish was the time for that trend to begin, but gradually it was really prevelant even amoung the small collectors who would buy only 2 or 3 copies - one to read and one or two to "store". Sure no case-buys but the concept was there and with enough collectors hoarding even 1 or 2 extras? A lot of HG out there even now. The elimination of the 9.4 basically eliminates this segment of the market, in my very humble and inexperienced opinion.

 

As far as the important books go? Well, cgc'd or not, we all know that usually the norm is over-guide anyway, usually based on hnow badly one collector needs tghat one book and how deep that one collector's pockets are. It is a funny game!

[blutobc]

Even when a raw book looks accurately graded as 9.4 or better on Ebay,

you know that people should be assuming it's 9.2 or less...

and more often lately, they're bidding as if the book is a 9.2 or less.

 

If Ebay prices are 9.2 prices, and Overstreet is planning (trying) to reflect these prices,

then Overstreet needs to reflect 9.2. Simple enough.

 

But now the "norm" raw grade will be 9.2 on many of these same auctions, and the same arguement will be made over the accuracy of the the 9.2 grade. Thereby, dropping the selling price of the raw comic to a new reasoned 9.0 value. Looks to me like an attempt to further classify the comic market as two separate markets(raw & graded) which they may very well be. But it also continues to lessen the perceived value of raw comics. These are books that are made to be read...not put on a mantle behind plastic.

 

This is not the c.r.a.s.h. but, it possibly is the "voice crying out in the wilderness".

 

Oh, and I've got to get on ebay now and buy some more bronze CGC 9.4 so I can flip them to the uneducated in a month. I seriously bet that we'll see a jump in 9.4 values.

[valiantman]

But now the "norm" raw grade will be 9.2 on many of these same auctions, and the same arguement will be made over the accuracy of the the 9.2 grade. Thereby, dropping the selling price of the raw comic to a new reasoned 9.0 value.

I guess what I was trying to say is that there are lots of reasons to believe

"raw 9.4" is significantly closer to 9.2 than those stating "near mint" will admit.

Sellers make more money when they overlook flaws... so why debate the 0.2?

Because the flaws are there, that's why.

 

Whether people's generally stated "9.4" is actually 9.2 or 9.0 or worse, I don't know.

But it seems like 9.2 is at least a good start for "raw" prices.

Because if it's not as bad as 9.2 when it's listed on Ebay...

it probably will be by the time it crosses the country (or globe)

in that bubble-envelope to reach your hands.

Ebay is the world's flea market... and the true gems are few and far between.

[Darthdiesel]

a checklist of Marvel's 30¢ and 35¢ variants,

 

I hope they put in the Star Wars 1-4 35 cent reprints

[Darthdiesel]

Ridiculous. This will affect raw buyers & sellers the most. Thanks for the heads up, now I know NOT to buy it.

 

Too late...didn't you already place an advance order through Lighthouse?

[Apotheosis]

The only reason I don't like the change is because it messes up my database. Now I have to guess at the NM price, but then again, I had to guess at the NM+ price before

[joe_collector]

Do you think this means that 9.2 prices will match or exceed last year's 9.4 prices? This would make perfect sense for Silver and Gold, but perhaps not for more recent books.

 

Yeah, this is really an era-specific thing, and I can't imagine a Modern 9.2 (with a few noted exceptions) selling for anything over a few bucks.

 

Even Bronze 9.2 books usually don't hit Guide, and I think if OS really wanted to reflect the true market, they'd go to 9.4 or higher for late-60's books and above.

[Mister_Comics]

Sounds great now. Our collections will sky rocket in price.

 

What happens when more and more high grades turn up? Will OS lower the high end of the prices? Go back to 9.4???

 

If not and things like this go on, then our 8.0's will be worth a fortune in the future.

 

Hold on to your hats and those middle grade books.

[shadroch]

As someone who has read the guide year in.year out sine #3(1973?),I'd just like to remind people the guide has changed and evolved over time.

For many years,it listed three prices-Good,Fine and Mint.

As late as #6,The price of a MINT book was exactly twice that of a GOOD book,with Fine halfway in between.

In the early 80s(or thereabout),the spread became a bit wider,going to three and then four times.

Eventually,dealing with semi-realistic market trends,MINT was removed from the guide and after numerous changes,we ended up with last years numbers.

Do we really need a guide to tell us a seperate price for a 2.0,4.0,6.0,8.0 ect,ect when each increase is the exact percentage from each other.For many years dealers and collectors valued a VG book at halfway between good and fine,but when the guide began pricing VG books last year,many took it as a godsend.

Whom does the removal of the 9.4 bracket hurt?I'm not sure.

But with 9.2 as a top grade,I suspect a certain company in Sarasota will become even more backlogged as thousands of books suddenly have hit the gold standard.

Will CGC 9.4s now be last weeks 9.6s,as people flock to the better than best books?

Seems like we've been cursed to live in interesting times.

[fantastic_four]

I think they may have been better off with a larger spread though as 9.0 and 9.2 are very close. But the guide will point out how big a 0.2 difference can be, thus increasing seller's desires for getting that extra 0.2 any way they can .----Sid

 

This is my biggest problem with it--the spread needs to be bigger. I continue to strongly believe that comic book grading is not precise enough to support a 25-notch scale. The criteria in the Overstreet Grading Guide aren't good enough for even dealers or professional graders to distinguish a 9.0 from a 9.2 with a high degree of consistency, so to present those two different price columns when 98% or more of the people reading it can't tell one from the other is overly ambitious and a bit out of touch with reality.

 

But hey, anyone paying multiples for .2 differences in CGC 9.x comics has been a bit out of touch with reality for years now...myself included.

[awe4one]

I use Overstreet as a guide. That includes noting price trends for high grade comics not only from FN to NM but year by year. OS taking the NM data out has essentially stopped me as a buyer from doing this. There's no use for a 9.2 (NM-) grade notation unless there's 9.4 data to contrast it with.

 

Also, the eBay explanation just doesn't make sense. Just because buyers may be getting 9.2 comics advertised as 9.4 should have no bearing in the guide. How the hell do they quantify it? Overstreet used to be proactive in analyzing the market....now they are reactive due to generalizations? I don't think so....

 

I'm think this change was dealer influenced as I see no benefit whatsoever for buyers. To say that 9.4 data is contained in another publication has diluted the Guide's influence and frankly, make's OS look as if they're bowing to pressure from slabbed sellers.

 

My enthusiam for the book's release has been dampened to point where I'm seriously thinking of not buying it for the first time ever as a collector. If it isn't one thing going on in this market, it's another.....and as a collector I'm starting to weary of this [!@#%^&^]....

 

Jim

[JiveTurkeyMoFo]

My enthusiam for the book's release has been dampened to point where I'm seriously thinking of not buying it for the first time ever as a collector. If it isn't one thing going on in this market, it's another.....and as a collector I'm starting to weary of this [!@#%^&^]....

 

But how will we collectors know when our stockpiles of NFL SuperPro # 1 are finally worth something if it weren't for the OS Guide?

[Zonker]

Overstreet used to be proactive in analyzing the market....now they are reactive due to generalizations? I don't think so....

 

I'm think this change was dealer influenced as I see no benefit whatsoever for buyers. To say that 9.4 data is contained in another publication has diluted the Guide's influence and frankly, make's OS look as if they're bowing to pressure from slabbed sellers.

 

I think this is Overstreet's attempt to finesse the question: "Is Overstreet taking into account slabbed prices, or is it a raw guide only?" My belief is that OS knew they could never with a straight face say their 9.4 prices are a mix of slabbed and unslabbed prices-- too many examples of sky-high 9.4 CGC books. Yet if they did attempt to use slabbed 9.4 pricing as the new OS "true" NM price (assume raw books selling for less are over-graded), then they run the risk of chasing the fad. And after the c-r-a-s-h, they would be compelled to then lower the 9.4 prices, and we've had a lot of discussion about how Bob Overstreet wants to avoid ever having across-the-board price rollbacks, so as to avoid having a snowball effect.

 

The problem with the elegantly-simple solution of declaring OPG to be a raw guide only is that it leaves them open to the charge that they are then only reporting prices of dealer-overgraded books ("If it's really a 9.4 why ain't it slabbed?")

 

So instead, as Shadroch mentioned, OS has continued their retreat from Mint pricing. Years ago they retreated to NM, now to NM-. If they were going to take this approach, I feel they ought to have gone all the way down to 9.0, waited for the high-end market to "stabilize" (c-r-a-s-h?) and then re-introduce 9.4 pricing when/if the dust settles. The problem is, as others have stated, this retreat will probably fuel the short term run-up of books graded higher than 9.2, as they all suddenly seem to deserve a multiple for being off the scale in terms of Overstreet pricing.

 

Interesting times, indeed.

[sterlingcomics]

hmmmm.. not sure how i feel. on one hand NM is never right anyway. On the other hand, terms like 3x guide are now no longer vaild terms for multiples of nm books. It was nice to have a standard to bounce off of. On the other other hand, the monthly publication sucks. On the other other other hand, true NM copies aren't always even available for certain books so who cares. I don't know......

 

I don't have enough hands to describe this....

 

So, instead of 4x Guide on the cover of CBG, what are we going to have....multiples of NM-?

 

Oh I get it--the system is screwed up for collectors as it is to figure out, so let's continue to manipulate the system for dealer's benefit.

[sterlingcomics]

Do you think this means that 9.2 prices will match or exceed last year's 9.4 prices? This would make perfect sense for Silver and Gold, but perhaps not for more recent books.

 

Exactly--manipulating the system--just you wait and see...

[sterlingcomics]

OS screws itself a little bit more every year.

How much longer will it even be of service?

 

The ComicBase price database and GPA is looking better to me all the time...

[ArAich]

Don't know if it's been mentioned earlier and I apologize if it has...but...it seems very straightforward what the reason was to do this...

Graded books in 9.4 go for multiples of guide... 9.2 books go for around guide based on 9.0 & 9.4 prices... so since the guide can't possibly jack the value of a 9.4 since that would send shockwaves around the world...they just make 9.2 the max since those prices are more relavent to actual guide valuations...

[fantastic_four]

So instead, as Shadroch mentioned, OS has continued their retreat from Mint pricing. Years ago they retreated to NM, now to NM-. If they were going to take this approach, I feel they ought to have gone all the way down to 9.0, waited for the high-end market to "stabilize" (c-r-a-s-h?) and then re-introduce 9.4 pricing when/if the dust settles. The problem is, as others have stated, this retreat will probably fuel the short term run-up of books graded higher than 9.2, as they all suddenly seem to deserve a multiple for being off the scale in terms of Overstreet pricing.

 

I agree. This is a step towards a better guide, it's just not an ideal one; dropping the 9.4 column entirely would have been preferrable. This move definitely results in Overstreet no longer misrepresenting NM 9.4 prices as badly as they always have for Gold and Silver books, but I don't trust 98% of the local comics shops I've ever encountered to distinguish a 9.0 from a 9.2, nor do I think the Overstreet Grading Guide prepares them for splitting this hair either with any realistic consistency.

 

I expect that 50% or more of them won't even notice the far-right column has changed and they'll continue to price 9.0-range books at that level just as they always have, which in itself makes this look like a good move since it will force the dealers who want to take the time to become tight graders to make an effort to find better pricing for their primo 9.4 or better Gold, Silver, and Bronze books.

[sterlingcomics]

Don't know if it's been mentioned earlier and I apologize if it has...but...it seems very straightforward what the reason was to do this...

Graded books in 9.4 go for multiples of guide... 9.2 books go for around guide based on 9.0 & 9.4 prices... so since the guide can't possibly jack the value of a 9.4 since that would send shockwaves around the world...they just make 9.2 the max since those prices are more relavent to actual guide valuations...

 

Sorry for acting dumb, but let me request clarification--are you saying that they are trying to limit 9.4 price increases by simply ignoring them in the guide? Are dealers going to sell graded 9.4 books at multiples of 9.2 prices or are they going to rationalize what OSG would have placed in the book anyway? Sorry the neural transponders aren't in good working order today