May I ask a question?

[tth2]

But I do think comparing top versus top is a valid test of desirability for each book.

Another interesting comparison would be the total value of all copies of an issue. That might be even more embarrassingly in favor of SA.

Interesting. Kind of a market capitalization concept.

[tth2]

SA is only valuable for non-key isuues in high grade. The rest is compost. GA, for the most part, has at least some value in all grades.

You really think so, Bill?

 

That might be the case for mainstream titles. But I think there are a lot of non-mainstream GA non-keys that go for peanuts. For example, actual market values (as opposed to Overstreet) of Westerns, particularly photo covers, seem to decline further with each passing year. I`m sure there are many other segments that attract less and less interest each year.

[tth2]

As opposed to most silver age where there are so many copies available that the demand is only felt in the uppermost grade ranges.

I think the view of the expense of GA is due to the fact that it is conventional wisdom that GA is more expensive (which was true for a long time) and because a grade by grade comparison at the high end will usually, even now, show the GA issue being more expensive. Essentially, the evidence that people are looking at confirms conventional wisdom because they compare top copies.

 

I agree that people think golden age is expensive. I hope prices are not being driven simply because people think golden age should be expensive, but I do think that is the case in some respects. But closer inspection reveals that the conventional wisdom doesn't hold true most of the time. There aren't many comics in the way of silver age that are unsellable, even in low grade. There are large swaths of golden age that are. Westerns, late Lev Gleasons, many reprint books from the 40s and 50s, chunks of Dells. Finding a price point at which these are viable sellers can be very difficult.

 

Compare them to the equal counterparts of the SA and you will find similar results.

No you won't. Find a price point and silver age Marvel Westerns sell. Marvel and DC reprint books sell. Thunder Agents sell. Most anything from the 60s has some demand. About the only 60s books I have a hard time selling are Mad Magazines and some of the Dell non-TV show stuff. But I couldn't tell you the last time I sold a Star Spangled comics without drastically cutting the price. And I have some mid-number Lev Gleason Daredevils that lasted through $1 box sales!

Really insightful posts, Richard. (thumbs u

 

Perhaps it`s time to realize that the paradigm a lot of us old-timers grew up with, and which we might think SHOULD still be the paradigm, is no longer the paradigm.

 

Or, looking at it from a contrarian point of view, the time when there is the greatest negativity and pessimism is the time to enter the market. So maybe I should start hoovering up every GA photo cover Western I can find.

[adamstrange]

But I do think comparing top versus top is a valid test of desirability for each book.

Another interesting comparison would be the total value of all copies of an issue. That might be even more embarrassingly in favor of SA.

Interesting. Kind of a market capitalization concept.

I've been interested in it for quite a long time but we had to get a point where the census was filled out "enough" and we had the stats from GPA before we could begin to think we could produce something even marginally meaningful. I'm not suggesting it would represent the total value of either GA or SA (the census has some double-counting and it does not include all books since many are unslabbed) but we could conceivably compare GA to SA if we are willing to assume they are equally inaccurate.

[Ted Knight]

That's a magnificent graph, tb! It took me a while to fully absorb what I was looking at.

 

Did anyone else notice the bump between 1950 and 1955? Amazing what a single pedigree can do (especially when there are 7-12 copies of each). But it also makes you realize that without it, there would be a real low point during this time. Why? Because the Church books were second-hand from that time period and not as high grade. And there are no other pedigrees that really cover the volume. The closest would be White Mountain, correct?

 

Very cool graph.

[tth2]

Fantastic graph, Hans.

 

What I found most interesting is that the so-called "Dark Ages" of comic collecting--the 1949-1956 period--is not quite as dark as conventional wisdom makes it out to be.

 

The number of high grade copies declined initially during that period, although still generally higher than the WWII era (generally considered the peak of the GA), but spiked up significantly in 1951-52 before trending down until DC revived superheroes in 1956 and then really taking off with the Marvel era. But even during the post-1952 decline, including the nadir in 1956 and 1957, the numbers never fell below the WW II peak era.

[adamstrange]

Because the Church books were second-hand from that time period and not as high grade.

There is no more incidence of second hand Church copies from that time period than from any other time period, so far as I'm aware. They generally are not as high grade because the books are not as strong structurally as big fat 64-paged GA comics. The Church collection ceases to contain a copy of most every books starting sometime in 1953, so far as I'm aware. Timely, who's worked on the Church chapter for the pedigree book can provide more detail.

 

 

 

[tth2]

But I do think comparing top versus top is a valid test of desirability for each book.

Another interesting comparison would be the total value of all copies of an issue. That might be even more embarrassingly in favor of SA.

Interesting. Kind of a market capitalization concept.

I've been interested in it for quite a long time but we had to get a point where the census was filled out "enough" and we had the stats from GPA before we could begin to think we could produce something even marginally meaningful. I'm not suggesting it would represent the total value of either GA or SA (the census has some double-counting and it does not include all books since many are unslabbed) but we could conceivably compare GA to SA if we are willing to assume they are equally inaccurate.

I agree. Might be some very interesting and counter-intuitive results.

 

However, my non-counter-intuitive guess would be that AF 15 will have the highest market cap by quite a wide margin.

 

I think you should direct some of your minions to the CGC Census and GPA and tell them to get cracking!

[adamstrange]

Fantastic graph, Hans.

 

What I found most interesting is that the so-called "Dark Ages" of comic collecting--the 1949-1956 period--is not quite as dark as conventional wisdom makes it out to be.

 

The number of high grade copies declined initially during that period, although still generally higher than the WWII peak era, but spiked up significantly in 1951-52 before trending down until the Marvel era began. But even during the post-1952 decline, the numbers never fell below the WW II peak era.

The percentage of 9.0 and better copies per issue published actually goes down dramatically during that 1951-53 time period.

 

The peak year for the number of issues ever produced by the comics industry is 1952. I believe I may have seen the numbers somewhere in a CBM or Alter Ego but can't pinpoint where. Gerber notes there were 642 titles in 1952 and I have a hazy thought there were 4000 or so issues but I could easily be wrong on that latter number. I do know there were only 320 issues in 1939.

[adamstrange]

I think you should direct some of your minions to the CGC Census and GPA and tell them to get cracking!

The wheels are in motion.

[Ted Knight]

Because the Church books were second-hand from that time period and not as high grade.

There is no more incidence of second hand Church copies from that time period than from any other time period, so far as I'm aware. They generally are not as high grade because the books are not as strong structurally as big fat 64-paged GA comics. The Church collection ceases to contain a copy of most every books starting sometime in 1953, so far as I'm aware. Timely, who's worked on the Church chapter for the pedigree book can provide more detail.

 

As per Chuck Rozanski's description:

 

"The one odd characteristic about the collection was that the newer (mid-1950's) comics averaged about "Fine" condition, while the older (1940's) comics I was running across were seemingly unread."

 

and

 

"As near as I could tell, his comics subscriptions were active from 1938-1953, when he retired from Mountain Bell. He then purchased comics used for about another five years, before giving up entirely. It was based upon my inspection of those 1953-1958 used comics by which I made my original bid for the collection "

 

quoted from the Mile High comics website (http://www.milehighcomics.com/tales/cbg18.html) on 4 June 2011.

[adamstrange]

However, my non-counter-intuitive guess would be that AF 15 will have the highest market cap by quite a wide margin.

That would be my guess after the little bit of investigation I did on Friday -- unless the Church Action 1 gets slabbed.

[Superman2006]

But I do think comparing top versus top is a valid test of desirability for each book.

Another interesting comparison would be the total value of all copies of an issue. That might be even more embarrassingly in favor of SA.

Interesting. Kind of a market capitalization concept.

 

I've often wondered where the major Gold, Silver, and Bronze books would fall out if assessed on a market capitalization basis, but I have never taken the time to crunch the numbers.

 

That said, for illustrative purposes, looking at the CGC Census, and applying my personal estimated FMVs based on the various grades therein, here is how the market cap of CGC Universal Graded copies would fall out for arguably the most significant key books across each of the Gold, Silver and Bronze ages:

 

Action #1: $13,000,000

AF #15: $15,500,000

Hulk #181: $4,500,000

 

Others may apply slightly different FMVs, but unless I really messed something up while totaling the values in my head while viewing the census data for these three books, these figures should be in the general ballpark.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[adamstrange]

"The one odd characteristic about the collection was that the newer (mid-1950's) comics averaged about "Fine" condition, while the older (1940's) comics I was running across were seemingly unread."

That's different than "second hand." There were second-hand 50s books and there were second hand early books (Tec 27 etc) but the reason for the condition difference, so far as I have observed, is due to the fragile nature of 50s books which have thinner cover stock and fewer pages. Also, Chuck's original list did not distinguish any intermediate grade between Fine and NM so the difference in average grade, which I certain is significant, is not quite as severe as it would appear on the surface.

 

He then purchased comics used for about another five years, before giving up entirely. It was based upon my inspection of those 1953-1958 used comics by which I made my original bid for the collection

I have and have seen a number of the 1953 and on books (all Westerns) and I've not seen any that could be identified as used just by looking at them. They are still superb copies structurally with beautiful pages for the time period.

 

In contrast, I have seen quite a few second-hand Church books from the 1938 - 1952 time period and they were easy to recognize as used. It's possible that these 1953+ used copies were disposed of in such a way that they have been off the market or sold without much fanfare and are no longer identified as Church copies and that's why I haven't seen any. I prefer to have the physical evidence to line up with the memories of key participants because of the fallibility of memory, especially of events 34 years ago regarding facts of little importance at that time.

[adamstrange]

But I do think comparing top versus top is a valid test of desirability for each book.

Another interesting comparison would be the total value of all copies of an issue. That might be even more embarrassingly in favor of SA.

Interesting. Kind of a market capitalization concept.

 

I've often wondered where the major Gold, Silver, and Bronze books would fall out if assessed on a market capitalization basis, but I have never taken the time to crunch the numbers.

 

That said, for illustrative purposes, looking at the CGC Census, and applying my personal estimated FMVs based on the various grades therein, here is how the market cap of CGC Universal Graded copies would fall out for arguably the most significant key books across each of the Gold, Silver and Bronze ages:

 

Action #1: $13,000,000

AF #15: $15,500,000

Hulk #181: $4,500,000

 

Others may apply slightly different FMVs, but unless I really messed something up while totaling the values in my head while viewing the census data for these three books, these figures should be in the general ballpark.

Nice work! (thumbs u

 

I like that you added in Hulk 181 as it is the key BA book but I would never have thought of its market cap being that high.

 

And it shows that just slabbing the Church copy would put Action 1 back on top.

[tth2]

But I do think comparing top versus top is a valid test of desirability for each book.

Another interesting comparison would be the total value of all copies of an issue. That might be even more embarrassingly in favor of SA.

Interesting. Kind of a market capitalization concept.

 

I've often wondered where the major Gold, Silver, and Bronze books would fall out if assessed on a market capitalization basis, but I have never taken the time to crunch the numbers.

 

That said, for illustrative purposes, looking at the CGC Census, and applying my personal estimated FMVs based on the various grades therein, here is how the market cap of CGC Universal Graded copies would fall out for arguably the most significant key books across each of the Gold, Silver and Bronze ages:

 

Action #1: $13,000,000

AF #15: $15,500,000

Hulk #181: $4,500,000

 

Others may apply slightly different FMVs, but unless I really messed something up while totaling the values in my head while viewing the census data for these three books, these figures should be in the general ballpark.

I guess it depends on how you derived your FMV and how "F" the "MV" is. That will probably be the controversial part of anyone`s calculations, since AF 15 has not sold in every grade recently, and Action 1 certainly hasn`t.

[tth2]

But I do think comparing top versus top is a valid test of desirability for each book.

Another interesting comparison would be the total value of all copies of an issue. That might be even more embarrassingly in favor of SA.

Interesting. Kind of a market capitalization concept.

 

I've often wondered where the major Gold, Silver, and Bronze books would fall out if assessed on a market capitalization basis, but I have never taken the time to crunch the numbers.

 

That said, for illustrative purposes, looking at the CGC Census, and applying my personal estimated FMVs based on the various grades therein, here is how the market cap of CGC Universal Graded copies would fall out for arguably the most significant key books across each of the Gold, Silver and Bronze ages:

 

Action #1: $13,000,000

AF #15: $15,500,000

Hulk #181: $4,500,000

 

Others may apply slightly different FMVs, but unless I really messed something up while totaling the values in my head while viewing the census data for these three books, these figures should be in the general ballpark.

Nice work! (thumbs u

 

I like that you added in Hulk 181 as it is the key BA book but I would never have thought of its market cap being that high.

 

And it shows that just slabbing the Church copy would put Action 1 back on top.

If you`re going to include the Church Action 1, then wouldn`t you have to similarly include rumored high grade AF 15s that haven`t been slabbed yet? Plus, what is the FMV of the Church Action 1?

[adamstrange]

But I do think comparing top versus top is a valid test of desirability for each book.

Another interesting comparison would be the total value of all copies of an issue. That might be even more embarrassingly in favor of SA.

Interesting. Kind of a market capitalization concept.

 

I've often wondered where the major Gold, Silver, and Bronze books would fall out if assessed on a market capitalization basis, but I have never taken the time to crunch the numbers.

 

That said, for illustrative purposes, looking at the CGC Census, and applying my personal estimated FMVs based on the various grades therein, here is how the market cap of CGC Universal Graded copies would fall out for arguably the most significant key books across each of the Gold, Silver and Bronze ages:

 

Action #1: $13,000,000

AF #15: $15,500,000

Hulk #181: $4,500,000

 

Others may apply slightly different FMVs, but unless I really messed something up while totaling the values in my head while viewing the census data for these three books, these figures should be in the general ballpark.

I guess it depends on how you derived your FMV and how "F" the "MV" is. That will probably be the controversial part of anyone`s calculations, since AF 15 has not sold in every grade recently, and Action 1 certainly hasn`t.

The calculations he made may be off (can't tell since he didn't publish numbers) but now's the easiest time in years to do an estimate in that we have recently sold an Action 1 in 8.5, 8.0 and 6.5. Gator has estimated that Action 1 unrestoreds sell for about $100k per grade point up through 6.0.

[Ted Knight]

Plus, what is the FMV of the Church Action 1?

 

This is a far more complicated question than I think most people realize. I think all anyone could say safely is that it is no less than $5 million and no more than... unknown. (thumbs u

 

 

[Superman2006]

But I do think comparing top versus top is a valid test of desirability for each book.

Another interesting comparison would be the total value of all copies of an issue. That might be even more embarrassingly in favor of SA.

Interesting. Kind of a market capitalization concept.

 

I've often wondered where the major Gold, Silver, and Bronze books would fall out if assessed on a market capitalization basis, but I have never taken the time to crunch the numbers.

 

That said, for illustrative purposes, looking at the CGC Census, and applying my personal estimated FMVs based on the various grades therein, here is how the market cap of CGC Universal Graded copies would fall out for arguably the most significant key books across each of the Gold, Silver and Bronze ages:

 

Action #1: $13,000,000

AF #15: $15,500,000

Hulk #181: $4,500,000

 

Others may apply slightly different FMVs, but unless I really messed something up while totaling the values in my head while viewing the census data for these three books, these figures should be in the general ballpark.

I guess it depends on how you derived your FMV and how "F" the "MV" is. That will probably be the controversial part of anyone`s calculations, since AF 15 has not sold in every grade recently, and Action 1 certainly hasn`t.

 

The FMV that I used for Action 1 was based on recent sales including $1.5 mill and $1 mil for the 8.5 and 8.0 (if I recall correctly), as well as the $650K or thereabouts sale of Peter's 6.5 (I remember it was north of $600). After that I basically applied a $100K per grade point rule to fill in the FMVs for the remaining Universal copies (a bit more than that for the 7.5)... (I did so quickly in my head so a bit of rounding along the way)

 

The FMVs for the AF #15 were also based on recent sales that I was aware of, including $1 mil or thereabout for the 9.6 copy, I estimated $500K per for the 9.4s, $250K per for the 9.2s, $1 mil for the 6 copies in 9.0, and so one (much more GPA data for the lower grades, which, I applied from memory, rounding along the way since calcs done quickly in my head).

 

The FMVs for the Hulk #181 were similarly done based on recent sales including $150K (if I recall correctly) for the 9.9, $15K per for the 9.8s (which is maybe a bit high these days), $5K per for the 9.6s (again, probably a bit high these days), $2.5K per for the 9.4s, and so on.

 

While there may be some debate about the FMVs that I applied, I think most would agree that they're probably in the general ballpark, which is all that I was hoping for on this exercise...